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Thread: Placement of 2013 Draft Picks

  1. #21
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    One other thing that is helping is the moved up signing deadline that lets draft picks get time in the year they were drafted. Huge help.
    This is absolutely 100% true. For a few years there, most were waiting until the last second to sign and didn't debut until the following year. Nice to have that first two months during the year they're drafted just to catch their bearings in the pro life.

  2. #22
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Thats true but Eades and Slegers were I think only two of ten healthy college pitchers picked in the first five rounds that didn't even make it out of rookie league. Some teams appear to not even bother putting these types of pitchers in rookie ball at all.

    Im not making any judgment about this strategy, but there are still comps available that indicate the Twins are still on the conversative side.
    There is a strategy there though... College starting pitchers have been throwing since January, so they want to keep their innings down so they work in the bullpen. They're adjusting to life in professional baseball. Travel, getting paid, paying bills, having a job, all that goes into it.

    Now, in the last two years, the Twins have had several college pitchers work in the bullpen of the Snappers/Kernels. Last year, Brian Gilbert and Brandon Bixler did. The year before, Taylor Rogers, DJ Baxendale and Zack Jones did. Tyler Duffey joined them for the playoffs.

    In 2005, Matt Garza moved up. There are generally 2-3 each year who do that.They just aren't always the top guys. Again, Eades pitched at LSU, and their season starts early. Slegers pitched at Indiana, and they started at the same time and went to the college world series.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I don't know that people were wrong about slow promotions, there just seems to be a shift in philosophy the last few years. Until Arcia came around I don't think any HS age draft pick was allowed to play less than a full year in the Midwest league.
    I also can't think of a HS age draft pick or int'l prospect that made a good case to be promoted. Moses, Plouffe, Parmelee, Hicks, Sanchez, Morales, Benson, etc... To get a promotion the prospect needs to perform and for the most part Twins prospects didn't do much for almost a decade.

    The only one that I can remotely think of is Revere but I think he got hurt in the 2nd half of his Beloit season.

  4. #24
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    Always a reason or excuse.....all I know is their strategy has not worked well in around seven years.....they need to do something(s) differently, or just keep being awful I guess.
    Lighten up Francis....

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Always a reason or excuse.....all I know is their strategy has not worked well in around seven years.....they need to do something(s) differently, or just keep being awful I guess.
    What? No doubt, our organization failed to draft and develop talent for roughly 5 years. Had that not changed you would have good reason to complain about our minor league system but we now have a farm system among the best and possibly the best system in all of baseball. They are drafting power arms and their international signings look very good. Sorry, IMO, this is complacency for the sake of complacency.

  6. #26
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    They do have a great farm system. Which, due to two bad things happening, failed, once again, to graduate a player to the majors so far this year. Their first best OF in AAA isn't even a real OF. They have two guys ready, probably, to help this year. But one is on an innings limit, and the other is a relief pitcher. I get it. They are stacked with good/great prospects, but you know what, not one of them made the roster this year. And the team isn't exactly stacked with good young players right now either.
    Lighten up Francis....

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Always a reason or excuse.....all I know is their strategy has not worked well in around seven years.....they need to do something(s) differently, or just keep being awful I guess.
    Well, they did change strategy when Ryan left and Smith and Johnson took over GM and the draft.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Well, they did change strategy when Ryan left and Smith and Johnson took over GM and the draft.
    In the draft that appears to be the case. Not sure if they minors have changed what/how they teach or not. The fundamentals on the MLB roster are bad, again. That has to be partly on the coaching in the minors (and majors). It is hard to see if they are pushing players up faster or not. It is hard to see if they are moving clear non-starting pitchers to relievers faster and moving them to the majors fast (while their arms are strong and healthy).

    To me, it is about the entire process, and we just can't tell what/if anything/ has really changed.
    Lighten up Francis....

  9. #29
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    All I know is, if the Twins keep losing 96 games a year, Twins fans will consume draft beer more quickly on game days.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    They do have a great farm system. Which, due to two bad things happening, failed, once again, to graduate a player to the majors so far this year. Their first best OF in AAA isn't even a real OF. They have two guys ready, probably, to help this year. But one is on an innings limit, and the other is a relief pitcher. I get it. They are stacked with good/great prospects, but you know what, not one of them made the roster this year. And the team isn't exactly stacked with good young players right now either.
    Josmil Pinto and Kyle Gibson appear to be new grads. (After limited call ups last year) Colabello and Hicks were both up for a good portion of last year so probably don't fit your definition of graduating but their play last year when with the big club did not signify a graduation. Oh, it's also the second week...
    i can see a strong argument against 3 of these 4 but Pinto is Definitely a new grad...

  11. #31
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    I guess if a guy played last year with the MLB club, it is hard to say they graduated this year. A difference of definition I guess. Of those, which ones have been good so far?
    Lighten up Francis....

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I guess if a guy played last year with the MLB club, it is hard to say they graduated this year. A difference of definition I guess. Of those, which ones have been good so far?
    It takes time. Morneau needed about 1000 ML at bats before he became the Morny we remember. It's unusual for young guys to be good right away. Hicks, Arcia, Pinto are going to struggle but it doesn't mean they won't be good. That's part of rebuilding.

  13. #33
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    Agreed, gunnarthor, which is why I argue to bring up players faster....so they are productive sooner. There is risk in every approach, I'd rather roll the dice on the faster process, but I realize not everyone agrees.
    Lighten up Francis....

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Agreed, gunnarthor, which is why I argue to bring up players faster....so they are productive sooner. There is risk in every approach,

    I'd rather roll the dice on the faster process, but I realize not everyone agrees.


    Here, here. I concur with your view, which is increasingly becoming the preferred route among a growing number of GMs. It's easy to see why, the really good prospects now require a huge upfront cost in bonus money- it's always nice to see a quicker return on your investment. And more importantly, although I haven't seen an official study to confirm it, there have to be a huge number of guys, likely a majority, who hit their career-year peak while still under initial team control and there are only a few teams that can absorb and remain competitive with multiple 9-figure, multi-year, busts embedded within their roster like parasites. The math is simple, if guys are hitting their peaks at age 27 or 28 in their 5th or 6th year of control, there's a fighting chance that you can get an extra 2 or 3 years of peak performance at pre-FA prices by promoting faster and either flipping him before the last minute to maximize return or buying out a few FA years early on at a discount with an extension. This methodology also forces a team to make the decision to be competitive more often, and not go into extended hibernation like the Twins and other clubs have been wont to do- good for the fans and great for the bottom line if the risks are managed well and play out to expectations.

    Thankfully, I trust the Twins have learned their lesson on slow-playing their top picks and are soon finally in a position to have to make these kinds of decisions.
    Last edited by jokin; 04-08-2014 at 07:23 PM.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Agreed, gunnarthor, which is why I argue to bring up players faster....so they are productive sooner. There is risk in every approach, I'd rather roll the dice on the faster process, but I realize not everyone agrees.
    Well, looking over the last decade or so these players debuted at these ages w/Twins:
    20 - Rivas
    21 - Ortiz, AJ, Hunter, Guzman, Santana, Adam Johnson, Mauer, Liriano, Casilla,
    22 - Milton, Radke, Lohse, Rincon, Cuddy, Morneau, Kubel, Durbin, Crain, Garza, Gomez, Revere, Ramos, Hendriks, Arcia
    23 - Mays, Romero, Restovich, Baker, Perkins, Slowey, Benson, Parmelee, Hicks
    24 - Dougie Baseball, LeCroy, Jones, Kielty, Bartlett, Boof, Span, Plouffe, Pinto
    25 - Koskie, Guerrier, Neshek, Blackburn, Valencia, Waldrop, Swarzak, Gibson
    26 - Buchanan, Ford, Duensing

    This obviously isn't everyone - no need to look at Morales or Miller but it's a decent list. Not sure age tells us much. Obviously, the better players got up faster, which isn't surprising. (I think everyone except Hendriks and Casilla in the 22 or younger groups had been ranked in the top 100 at some time). I tend to think that the Twins are more willing than other teams to let "old" prospects contribute. (In the 24 and older group only Gibson - who had TJ surgery - was ranked by baseball america, I believe). It looks like the Twins have tended to get the franchise type players and the first division complementary players get their feet wet by 22 and hope to establish them within two years of that.

    I guess I'm just not sure that the Twins have been holding elite talent back. I know some people thought Cuddy should've been a regular before 05/06 and injuries held back guys like Kubel and Gibson and some guys struggled after being called up (Hunter, AJ, Johnson).

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    There is risk in every approach, I'd rather roll the dice on the faster process, but I realize not everyone agrees.
    You're right -- not everyone, I'd even say most everyone, agrees. From the same article (which is actually Chris Crawford's work, not KLaw as I originally mentioned):
    "It's exponentially worse to put a kid at too high a level than to do the opposite in terms of his development, both physically and mentally."

    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Thankfully, I trust the Twins have learned their lesson on slow-playing their top picks and are soon finally in a position to have to make these kinds of decisions.
    Specifically, which top picks were "slow-played"? I don't think you'll be able to come up with any bullet-proof (or even well armored) examples.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    The last couple of seasons the Twins have been more aggressive in both promoting and cutting players. I suspect that the change in Minor League Director had something to do with this.
    The other difference could be, drafting in the 20's versus top 5.

    Look at Buxton, he has owned every league thus far. Of course you are going to move him. Garza was probably the exception at 25, but he moved because he was ripping it up too.
    Last edited by tobi0040; 04-09-2014 at 08:19 AM.

  18. This user likes tobi0040's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:

    gunnarthor (04-09-2014)

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