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Thread: Who could have seen this Pelfrey start coming...

  1. #21
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by clutterheart View Post
    When has Pelfrey been good?
    2008, 2010, he showed a few promising flashes last year as well.
    "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald


  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by clutterheart View Post
    When has Pelfrey been good?
    2008
    2010

    2013 (July-September)
    Last edited by jokin; 04-10-2014 at 07:08 PM.

  3. #23
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    Why would Pelfrey be "on a leash"? The Twins knew who he was when they signed him--and he is pitching the same as last year. It's not like Pelfrey had to arm-wrestle a contract away from other pitchers to sign here.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    2008, 2010, he showed a few promising flashes last year as well.
    So a long time ago...and even then his peripherals where not fantastic. I dunno, I have never been all that happy he was on the team.

  5. #25
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marta Shearing View Post
    Deduno had a great spring. His struggles are because he's in the bullpen. He's a starter, and deserves to be starting on this team. Its amazing on a staff this bad they have their best starter in a mopup role in the bullpen.
    Barring injury, Nolasco and Hughes aren't leaving the rotation after two months' worth of struggling, let alone two starts' worth.

    That leaves Correia, who was better than Deduno last year, Pelfrey, who was arguably better and had better seasons than his 2013 before TJ, and Gibson, who was worse than Deduno but has the 2014 rotation's only win and its only ERA under 6.

    Deduno will get his chances to start at some point, either due to injury or ineffectiveness of the front five. Until then, he should continue to work on turning himself into a relief pitcher. Most relievers in MLB were starters at one point in their careers, so it's an extremely common career arc and the odds are he'll get it figured out eventually.

    In fact, you could argue that he already has, with the exception of control, already started to do so based on his high K rate and low FIP/xFIP. Like the rotation, he's a work in progress as a reliever, and I hope he continues to progress. He's fun to watch when he's on, and entertaining in an America's Funniest Videos sort of way when he's not.

  6. #26
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl View Post
    That the pitching coach still has a job is fascinating to me. It was fascinating to me in the offseason when the defenders of Gardy and Anderson came out claiming things like "managers (and coaches) don't really matter."
    And it's a self-nullifying argument to boot. If they don't matter, what's the harm in replacing them?

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  8. #27
    Deduno was their best starter last year. as for track record I can agree with you on Nolasco and Correia but Hughes track record is not good. Yes Gibson has the most upside. Deduno is a starter and earned his chance to start. as for your comment that there is no excuse for pitching poorly in the bullpen... starting and relieving are apples and oranges and some guys can't do both well. I am not advocating for a change yet but if things don't improve then Deduno should be 1st option into rotation

  9. #28
    Senior Member Triple-A zchrz's Avatar
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    I was not a fan of the signing and still think it was a poor decision. Pelfry could have a rebound year and be a league average 4 or 5 (that's his upside), why waste a spot on a rebuilding team for that. The sinker is nasty but he has little control of it.
    "Professionalism - When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - Hunter S Thompson

  10. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by clutterheart View Post
    So a long time ago...
    And last July-September. Again, he was "good", in a sort of innings-eating, 5th starter kind of way, and he's being paid commensurately to that end. As most have said, I'm not a big fan of his signing, but 2 years with Big Pelf isn't going to derail or block someone else's career trajectory- he can go to the pen when we suddenly, somehow have 5 obviously better alternatives.
    Last edited by jokin; 04-10-2014 at 08:15 PM.

  11. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marta Shearing View Post
    Deduno had a great spring. His struggles are because he's in the bullpen. He's a starter, and deserves to be starting on this team. Its amazing on a staff this bad they have their best starter in a mopup role in the bullpen.
    You just can't show emotion out there. We don't do that kind of stuff around here.

  12. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    Barring injury, Nolasco and Hughes aren't leaving the rotation after two months' worth of struggling, let alone two starts' worth.

    That leaves Correia, who was better than Deduno last year, Pelfrey, who was arguably better and had better seasons than his 2013 before TJ, and Gibson, who was worse than Deduno but has the 2014 rotation's only win and its only ERA under 6.

    Deduno will get his chances to start at some point, either due to injury or ineffectiveness of the front five. Until then, he should continue to work on turning himself into a relief pitcher. Most relievers in MLB were starters at one point in their careers, so it's an extremely common career arc and the odds are he'll get it figured out eventually.

    In fact, you could argue that he already has, with the exception of control, already started to do so based on his high K rate and low FIP/xFIP. Like the rotation, he's a work in progress as a reliever, and I hope he continues to progress. He's fun to watch when he's on, and entertaining in an America's Funniest Videos sort of way when he's not.
    How was Correia or arguably Pelfrey better than Deduno last year?

  13. #32
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    Just guesstimating, but at this point I'd say Deduno gets his shot by May.
    Anderson? He goes when Molly becomes manager.
    Last edited by BigTrane; 04-10-2014 at 08:17 PM.
    Feel free to pile on about Suzuki.

  14. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by notoriousgod71 View Post
    How was Correia or arguably Pelfrey better than Deduno last year?
    Predictability and health.

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  16. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigTrane View Post
    Just guesstimating, but at this point I'd say Deduno gets his shot by May.
    Anderson? He goes when Molly becomes manager.
    Sooo, 2016 then, for Molly....?
    Last edited by jokin; 04-10-2014 at 08:23 PM.

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  18. #35
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    In Pelfrey's "good " stretch of 15 starts last year...

    15 starts
    4.39 ERA
    82 inn
    90 hits
    32 walks
    63 k's

    Innings eater?

    Only 1 of the 15 starts was 7 innings. He did get an out in the 8th inning of any start in his good stretch. It is really hard to be an inning eater when you carry his pitch/plate appearance rate.

    FIP?

    K/BB ratio was 2.74 with the bases empty vs. 1.27 with runners on base. That is consistent with his career numbers. Correspondingly OPS against is 61 points worse with runners on base. FIP is based in strikeouts, walks and hime runs. Pitchers whose performance drops with runners on base will have FIPs that are lower than the rates in which they give up runs.

    If the hope is that he can pitch like he did the second half, expect a mid 4 ERA in starts shorter than 7 innings. At best a number 4 starter.

    If the hope is that he will be an innings eating starter with ERAs to match his FIP, I don't think that is realistic.

  19. #36
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notoriousgod71 View Post
    How was Correia or arguably Pelfrey better than Deduno last year?
    "Valuable" would have been a more accurate word than"better". They all achieved fielding-independent results that were pretty close to each other, but Correia and Pelfrey logged more innings.

    And since the comparison was made in the context of deciding who should be in the rotation now, it's relevant to note that they were as good in the second half of the season as they were in the first, while Deduno saw his walk rate rise to an unacceptable 4+ per 9 innings.

    Was never a fan of either the Correia or Pelfrey signings, so it's not very rewarding to defend them. Deduno is fun to watch, so it's not very rewarding to point out his warts.

    But the impression that Deduno is obviously better than KC or MP is worth debating. And the idea that he's an obviously better investment in the future than either is hard to swallow given the fact that he's a year older than Pelfrey, whose post-TJ ceiling has yet to be established, and Correia, though older, has enough of a whiff of serviceability in his track record that he stands a slim chance of bringing something in trade.

    Short story long, I'd be fine with Deduno replacing the slowest non-Hughlasco antelope in the fifth starter herd next month. But the notion that it's some sort of affront to the allmighty that he's not in the rotation tomorrow is hard to swallow.
    Last edited by LaBombo; 04-11-2014 at 01:20 PM.

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  21. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by clutterheart View Post
    So a long time ago...and even then his peripherals where not fantastic. I dunno, I have never been all that happy he was on the team.
    when we are picking out 400 ip of his 1100 career. Most of which were 4 and 6 years ago....almost all nl.

  22. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    In Pelfrey's "good " stretch of 15 starts last year...

    15 starts
    4.39 ERA
    82 inn
    90 hits
    32 walks
    63 k's

    Innings eater?

    Only 1 of the 15 starts was 7 innings. He did get an out in the 8th inning of any start in his good stretch. It is really hard to be an inning eater when you carry his pitch/plate appearance rate.

    FIP?

    K/BB ratio was 2.74 with the bases empty vs. 1.27 with runners on base. That is consistent with his career numbers. Correspondingly OPS against is 61 points worse with runners on base. FIP is based in strikeouts, walks and hime runs. Pitchers whose performance drops with runners on base will have FIPs that are lower than the rates in which they give up runs.

    If the hope is that he can pitch like he did the second half, expect a mid 4 ERA in starts shorter than 7 innings. At best a number 4 starter.

    If the hope is that he will be an innings eating starter with ERAs to match his FIP, I don't think that is realistic.
    The September BABIP and off-the-wall strand rate significantly skew the ERA and OPS in those last 15 starts.

    But I'll agree with you, he's an innings eater who will never match his FIP- in the 5th starter sense of the word- even hoping for 4th starter level is speculative at best. That's why his salary is commensurate with a veteran 5th starter.

  23. #39
    Senior Member Triple-A Teflon's Avatar
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    I know Pelfrey is a painfully slow worker on the mound but today he looked even more deliberative than usual. It was hard not to feel he as if he dreaded every pitch he had to make, hoping to clip corners instead of trying to challenge the A's hitters. He ended up throwing a lot of balls out of the strike zone then having to make a get-me-over pitch that the A's feasted on. I feel sorry for the guy as the fans are starting to boo him.

    As far as other factors compounding Pelfrey's performance (and the Twins starting pitchers in general) I have a couple of questions for the more knowledgeable observers based on what I saw today -

    1. Are Twins outfielders positioned intelligently? Mastroianni's supposed to be fast, right? But he seemed to either be too deep or too shallow on balls hit to RF. Kubel ended up chasing a lot of balls in LF today, too, but LF is a larger field to play and Kubel is not the fastest outfielder. (So why wasn't he playing RF and Mastroianni playing LF?)

    2. Does a rookie like Pinto behind the plate as opposed to the veteran Suzuki make any difference in Pelfrey's pitch selection and tempo? Suzuki caught Pelfrey's initial game which progressed nicely through the early innings unit he fell apart in the 5th inning so not sure it matters. Just asking, though.

  24. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teflon View Post
    I know Pelfrey is a painfully slow worker on the mound but today he looked even more deliberative than usual. It was hard not to feel he as if he dreaded every pitch he had to make, hoping to clip corners instead of trying to challenge the A's hitters. He ended up throwing a lot of balls out of the strike zone then having to make a get-me-over pitch that the A's feasted on. I feel sorry for the guy as the fans are starting to boo him.

    As far as other factors compounding Pelfrey's performance (and the Twins starting pitchers in general) I have a couple of questions for the more knowledgeable observers based on what I saw today -

    1. Are Twins outfielders positioned intelligently? Mastroianni's supposed to be fast, right? But he seemed to either be too deep or too shallow on balls hit to RF. Kubel ended up chasing a lot of balls in LF today, too, but LF is a larger field to play and Kubel is not the fastest outfielder. (So why wasn't he playing RF and Mastroianni playing LF?)

    2. Does a rookie like Pinto behind the plate as opposed to the veteran Suzuki make any difference in Pelfrey's pitch selection and tempo? Suzuki caught Pelfrey's initial game which progressed nicely through the early innings unit he fell apart in the 5th inning so not sure it matters. Just asking, though.
    Too shallow or too deep? Hindsight is 20/20. But, those HRs make Mastro's depth irrelevant.

    Pitch selection? What selection? Pelfrey has one pitch.

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