Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 22

Thread: Article: The Big Switch: Kyle Gibson

  1. #1
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
    Posts
    2,441
    Twitter
    @twinsgeek
    Like
    1
    Liked 161 Times in 95 Posts
    Blog Entries
    241

    Article: The Big Switch: Kyle Gibson


  2. #2
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
    Posts
    644
    Like
    5
    Liked 29 Times in 14 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    strikeout rate isnít quite as important for a pitcher who relies on hitters hitting groundballs at his infielder
    I hear this a lot. Has data shown this to be true?

  3. #3
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,662
    Like
    11
    Liked 54 Times in 35 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by clutterheart View Post
    I hear this a lot. Has data shown this to be true?
    Right now Gibson has a high GB% and low LD%. I think it would indicate that the hitters are not making good contact. The key is that the sinker almost always has to be good or bad things happen. The data you seek would have to be from what happens when sinkerball pitchers pitch well.
    I don't think anyone would complain if he had a career similar to Tim Hudson or Jake Westbrook. That is what can happen if you pitch well.

  4. #4
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,131
    Like
    101
    Liked 271 Times in 195 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    I think K per 9 is not a great way to evaluate a guy whose main objective is to keep the ball down and get ground balls.

    Having said that, I think Gibson will settle in with a slightly higher K/9 than 4.8. I think his ceiling is Brandon Webb-light. Webb was a great pitcher, a decent 7k per 9 and high ground ball rate. In watching Gibson's starts so far, he has good movement and kept the ball down very well.

    Webb's numbers.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...webbbr01.shtml

  5. #5
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
    Posts
    8,110
    Twitter
    @rocketpig76
    Like
    48
    Liked 1,586 Times in 824 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    I think Gibson's absolute ceiling is Webb. I'd love for him to reach it, I just don't see it happening. I'm not convinced he can miss that many bats.

    I hope I'm wrong.

  6. #6
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
    Posts
    2,271
    Like
    241
    Liked 461 Times in 290 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I think Gibson's absolute ceiling is Webb. I'd love for him to reach it, I just don't see it happening. I'm not convinced he can miss that many bats.

    I hope I'm wrong.
    The key to that is his offspeed stuff. When he throws everything hard, he gets a lot of grounders, and some of them get through the infield. When he throws his split (which DickNBrt call his slower sinker) and his change more often, he gets more Ks.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  7. #7
    Senior Member MVP
    Posts
    5,713
    Like
    1,159
    Liked 564 Times in 369 Posts
    I think he's a legit, long term, MLB starter. It's been a while since we can say that about a guy they drafted and developed, so I'm happy about that. If he ends up a 2, awesome. But I'd guess he's a "3" long term, which is a good thing, imo.

  8. #8
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
    Posts
    8,110
    Twitter
    @rocketpig76
    Like
    48
    Liked 1,586 Times in 824 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I think he's a legit, long term, MLB starter. It's been a while since we can say that about a guy they drafted and developed, so I'm happy about that. If he ends up a 2, awesome. But I'd guess he's a "3" long term, which is a good thing, imo.
    My thoughts as well. He might even end up a #4, which isn't optimal but is better than nothing.

  9. #9
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jimbo92107's Avatar
    Posts
    546
    Like
    0
    Liked 24 Times in 12 Posts
    Blog Entries
    2
    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    The key to that is his offspeed stuff. When he throws everything hard, he gets a lot of grounders, and some of them get through the infield. When he throws his split (which DickNBrt call his slower sinker) and his change more often, he gets more Ks.
    Kyle Gibson now passes the eyeball test. He throws on a good downward plane, gets good sink while bending it right or left. His ability to change speeds is key because it gives his stuff one more dimension to worry about.

    Frankly, I'd like it if he mixed in some four-seam fastballs, maybe half a dozen per outing. A "sinker baller" that sometimes throws a straight one could also induce some whiffs and pop-ups. With a bit of luck, Gibson could be a good starter for quite a while.

  10. #10
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    341
    Like
    124
    Liked 26 Times in 20 Posts
    Blog Entries
    4
    I could have sworn before his TJ we were hearing he had a great slider. Am I misremembering that? Or does he just not throw it much?

  11. #11
    Kyle Gibson is going to end the season with most wins of any twins starting pitchers.

  12. #12
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
    Posts
    2,271
    Like
    241
    Liked 461 Times in 290 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by ericchri View Post
    I could have sworn before his TJ we were hearing he had a great slider. Am I misremembering that? Or does he just not throw it much?
    He has a good but not great slider. He doesn't throw it often enough. I don't know how good it was prior to TJ. If that come from a pre-draft analysis, it might have been hype. Kohl Stewart is said to have a "whipe-out slider". That term is thrown around way too much for my taste.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  13. #13
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,131
    Like
    101
    Liked 271 Times in 195 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I think Gibson's absolute ceiling is Webb. I'd love for him to reach it, I just don't see it happening. I'm not convinced he can miss that many bats.

    I hope I'm wrong.
    Webb was a very, very good pitcher. Career 3.27 ERA, has won 22 games. 33 WAR across only 6 seasons.

    I think 4.8 K per 9 in the major leagues is an anomoly. First, we are going off 11 innings. A little early to get into ratios like that. For his MLB career his K per 9 is 5.1, even that is only 62 IP.

    In the minors he had 337 K's in 337 IP. Last year in AAA, he had 87 K in 101 IP (7.75 K per 9). His K's were pretty consistent from high A, AA, and AAA. He was not one of those who racked up a ton in rookie league.

  14. #14
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
    Posts
    2,271
    Like
    241
    Liked 461 Times in 290 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Webb was a very, very good pitcher. Career 3.27 ERA, has won 22 games. 33 WAR across only 6 seasons.

    I think 4.8 K per 9 in the major leagues is an anomoly. First, we are going off 11 innings. A little early to get into ratios like that. For his MLB career his K per 9 is 5.1, even that is only 62 IP.

    In the minors he had 337 K's in 337 IP. Last year in AAA, he had 87 K in 101 IP (7.75 K per 9). His K's were pretty consistent from high A, AA, and AAA. He was not one of those who racked up a ton in rookie league.
    This. Plus look at his Pitch F/X data. He's been seriously squeezed. I probably said "where was that pitch?" 10 times in his last start. Six of them were with 2 strikes. I didn't see the first start, but I saw the data. He will get more calls as umps get used to him.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  15. #15
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,131
    Like
    101
    Liked 271 Times in 195 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    This. Plus look at his Pitch F/X data. He's been seriously squeezed. I probably said "where was that pitch?" 10 times in his last start. Six of them were with 2 strikes. I didn't see the first start, but I saw the data. He will get more calls as umps get used to him.
    Yeah, I agree. He is getting no respect and hopefully that will come in time and help his numbers. A TD article said only 73 percent of his pitches in the zone were called for strikes last year, the league average is 81%. He was close to the worst.

  16. #16
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    341
    Like
    124
    Liked 26 Times in 20 Posts
    Blog Entries
    4
    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    He has a good but not great slider. He doesn't throw it often enough. I don't know how good it was prior to TJ. If that come from a pre-draft analysis, it might have been hype. Kohl Stewart is said to have a "whipe-out slider". That term is thrown around way too much for my taste.
    I think this is what I was thinking of, probably. I was certain I'd seen something to indicate he had a good slider. John Manuel listed Gibson as having the best slider in their system for his 2013 list.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/minor...ospects-14343/

  17. #17
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,131
    Like
    101
    Liked 271 Times in 195 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by ericchri View Post
    I think this is what I was thinking of, probably. I was certain I'd seen something to indicate he had a good slider. John Manuel listed Gibson as having the best slider in their system for his 2013 list.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/minor...ospects-14343/
    I don't have data, but I believe I have read his slider induces a lot of ground balls, versus a Liriano, Randy Johnson, etc.

  18. #18
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
    Posts
    8,110
    Twitter
    @rocketpig76
    Like
    48
    Liked 1,586 Times in 824 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Webb was a very, very good pitcher. Career 3.27 ERA, has won 22 games. 33 WAR across only 6 seasons.

    I think 4.8 K per 9 in the major leagues is an anomoly. First, we are going off 11 innings. A little early to get into ratios like that. For his MLB career his K per 9 is 5.1, even that is only 62 IP.

    In the minors he had 337 K's in 337 IP. Last year in AAA, he had 87 K in 101 IP (7.75 K per 9). His K's were pretty consistent from high A, AA, and AAA. He was not one of those who racked up a ton in rookie league.
    I agree that Gibson's K rate *should* climb, I guess I'm just nervous about making any comparisons to Webb because, as you said, Webb was an incredibly effective pitcher for a time. An ace on most teams, a super-2 on the rest.

  19. #19
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,131
    Like
    101
    Liked 271 Times in 195 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I agree that Gibson's K rate *should* climb, I guess I'm just nervous about making any comparisons to Webb because, as you said, Webb was an incredibly effective pitcher for a time. An ace on most teams, a super-2 on the rest.
    Yeah, but Webb was able to put up great numbers with only a 7 k per 9, because os his ground balls. Pitchers usually are either K guys or ground ball guys. Webb was able to excel at the ground balls and still K some people. I think that is Gibson's MO. If he can K 6-7 per 9, he is going to be good. Not ace good, but very good.

    The few that come to my mind are Carlos Silva, he had 4 K per 9. Pelfrey has a career 5.2 K per 9.

  20. #20
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
    Posts
    8,110
    Twitter
    @rocketpig76
    Like
    48
    Liked 1,586 Times in 824 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Yeah, but Webb was able to put up great numbers with only a 7 k per 9, because os his ground balls. Pitchers usually are either K guys or ground ball guys. Webb was able to excel at the ground balls and still K some people. I think that is Gibson's MO. If he can K 6-7 per 9, he is going to be good. Not ace good, but very good.

    The few that come to my mind are Carlos Silva, he had 4 K per 9. Pelfrey has a career 5.2 K per 9.
    Yeah, Webb was a rarity. Personally, I think Gibson will probably end up a 5-6k per 9 guy. Good, but not close to Webb.

    If he can find a way to keep generating grounders with a 7k per 9, he should be very good.

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.