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Thread: Article: Rotation Reinforcements Waiting in the (Red) Wings

  1. #41
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    Wasn't inconsistency Hughes' bugaboo in NY? I know 3 starts is way too early to conclude anything, but given that, the results so far shouldn't be that surprising or require explanation, right?

    Here are Hughes' stats by inning last year:
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...2013&t=p#innng

    Seems like a fair amount of fluctuation there, which suggests scattered "big innings", as compared to, say, Kevin Correia:
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...2013&t=p#innng

    Glancing at a couple linescores from his 2013 game logs, I see Hughes was chased from his first start during a 4 run inning, had a 7 run disaster inning in May, had a 5 run inning to begin June...

    (An aside: Correia was a beast last year in the 5th inning! 0.32 ERA! Maybe a new market inefficiency? )

  2. #42
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AHSaves View Post
    Deduno IS like a knuckleballer except he doesn't even know where the pitch is going to go minimally! I don't get the Deduno love either. The guy is 30 years old and still can't control the cut or run of a fastball. He's a circus out there (definitely entertaining sometimes).
    I think that's what Nick meant by knucklballer. Name one knuckleballer who can control where the pitch is going.

    I don't get the Deduno hate. Just look at the numbers. As Nick said, he's been successful everywhere he's pitched the last two years. Yeah, he's 30, but he had TJ surgery at 26. Prior to that, we wasn't given much of an opportunity. At 28 and healthy, he started pitching like he's capable of. Why is his age even relevant here? He's not a prospect. He's a successful reclamation project.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Wasn't inconsistency Hughes' bugaboo in NY? I know 3 starts is way too early to conclude anything, but given that, the results so far shouldn't be that surprising or require explanation, right?

    Here are Hughes' stats by inning last year:
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...2013&t=p#innng

    Seems like a fair amount of fluctuation there, which suggests scattered "big innings", as compared to, say, Kevin Correia:
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...2013&t=p#innng

    Glancing at a couple linescores from his 2013 game logs, I see Hughes was chased from his first start during a 4 run inning, had a 7 run disaster inning in May, had a 5 run inning to begin June...

    (An aside: Correia was a beast last year in the 5th inning! 0.32 ERA! Maybe a new market inefficiency? )
    He has given up 20 hits, 5 BB, and 17 K in 15 IP. If his career BABIP of .265 or so was applied, he would have about 7 fewer hits.

    15 IP, 13 H, 5 BB, 17 K. That is a WHIP of 1.20 and 10.24 K per 9 innings. You give me that over the next 3 years and these discussions will be very different.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    He has given up 20 hits, 5 BB, and 17 K in 15 IP. If his career BABIP of .265 or so was applied, he would have about 7 fewer hits.
    Fangraphs says his career BABIP is .296, and has never been as low as .265. Career low .273 (2010). That career rate would mean about 5 fewer non-HR hits allowed in his 15 IP so far.

    Also, it's not really fair to suggest his high 2014 BABIP will revert to career norms, but not apply the same to his high 2014 K rate. We don't expect him to be a 10 K/9 starter, right?

    Finally, I am definitely not suggesting he will continue to be a 7.20 ERA pitcher... just that these early returns suggest he may be closer to the up-and-down, 4.60 ERA pitcher he was with New York, than the hidden gem many were hoping for.

  5. #45
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    I Hughes PA OPS
    1st PA in G as SP 1207 .722
    2nd PA in G as SP 1156 .788
    3rd PA in G as SP 786 .849

    For whatever reason, batters only need to see Hughes once before they turn into Andre Ethier. Twice before they turn into David Wright.

    Maybe he should swap roles with Deduno?

    I Deduno PA OPS
    1st PA in G as SP 293 .681
    2nd PA in G as SP 283 .767
    3rd PA in G as SP 218 .731

    Plus, Hughes has been amazing as a reliever.

    I Hughes PA BB SO OPS
    1st PA in G as RP 214 17 69 .501

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Fangraphs says his career BABIP is .296, and has never been as low as .265. Career low .273 (2010). That career rate would mean about 5 fewer non-HR hits allowed in his 15 IP so far.

    Also, it's not really fair to suggest his high 2014 BABIP will revert to career norms, but not apply the same to his high 2014 K rate. We don't expect him to be a 10 K/9 starter, right?

    Finally, I am definitely not suggesting he will continue to be a 7.20 ERA pitcher... just that these early returns suggest he may be closer to the up-and-down, 4.60 ERA pitcher he was with New York, than the hidden gem many were hoping for.
    I eyballed BABIP earlier in the day and was off. Good point on the K rate. I am optimistic. His BA against is 60 basis points higher than his career rate. Before the year we thought the key for him was keeping the ball in the park. His 1.20 HR/9 is far lower than his 1.48 and 1.65 of the last two years.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I eyballed BABIP earlier in the day and was off. Good point on the K rate. I am optimistic. His BA against is 60 basis points higher than his career rate. Before the year we thought the key for him was keeping the ball in the park. His 1.20 HR/9 is far lower than his 1.48 and 1.65 of the last two years.
    True, and he allowed both of those HR in Chicago, none in Target Field yet.

    But three consecutive starts of 5 IP, 4 ER, near 100 pitches each, doesn't exactly make me optimistic that he's going to wind up better than the inconsistent, inefficient 4.60 ERA starter he has been with the Yankees the past 4 seasons. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing at his price, certainly an improvement over most of our 2012-2013 starting staff -- but not the kind of piece that leads to great surplus value, or is a key contributor for a surprise contender. (A problem exacerbated by the fact the same description is likely to apply to our other 3 FA SP signings the past two offseasons.)

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    True, and he allowed both of those HR in Chicago, none in Target Field yet.

    But three consecutive starts of 5 IP, 4 ER, near 100 pitches each, doesn't exactly make me optimistic that he's going to wind up better than the inconsistent, inefficient 4.60 ERA starter he has been with the Yankees the past 4 seasons. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing at his price, certainly an improvement over most of our 2012-2013 starting staff -- but not the kind of piece that leads to great surplus value, or is a key contributor for a surprise contender. (A problem exacerbated by the fact the same description is likely to apply to our other 3 FA SP signings the past two offseasons.)
    His career ERA outside of the new Yankee stadium is around 4.15. I think that is about where he ends up or maybe a little better with the added confidence. That for 3/24 is a coup in my opinion.

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    His career ERA outside of the new Yankee stadium is around 4.15. I think that is about where he ends up or maybe a little better with the added confidence. That for 3/24 is a coup in my opinion.
    Agreed he certainly wasn't helped by the new Yankee Stadium, but that still doesn't really explain him alternating 80 and 100 ERA+ seasons for 4 years now. I'm not real comfortable explaining that away by home/road splits or confidence issues, especially when our other 3 FA starters all have similar up-and-down records. It's just kinda of inherent in that class of pitcher.

    Still, that means he may hit that 4.15 in his up season(s), which would certainly be helpful.

  10. #50
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    True, and he allowed both of those HR in Chicago, none in Target Field yet.

    But three consecutive starts of 5 IP, 4 ER, near 100 pitches each, doesn't exactly make me optimistic that he's going to wind up better than the inconsistent, inefficient 4.60 ERA starter he has been with the Yankees the past 4 seasons.
    I still think he's better than that. Every start has been plagued by one bad inning mixed into nearly-unhittable baseball.

    And Tonkin really screwed over his stat line in that last start. Still not good but not as awful as it looked on paper.

  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Agreed he certainly wasn't helped by the new Yankee Stadium, but that still doesn't really explain him alternating 80 and 100 ERA+ seasons for 4 years now. I'm not real comfortable explaining that away by home/road splits or confidence issues, especially when our other 3 FA starters all have similar up-and-down records. It's just kinda of inherent in that class of pitcher.

    Still, that means he may hit that 4.15 in his up season(s), which would certainly be helpful.
    Some of the volatility maybe just the nature of him. But Yankee stadium, in my opinion explains 90% of his struggles.

    He has given up 43 HR outside of the new yankee stadium in 440 IP, a rate of .87 per 9 IP.

    He has given up 71 HR in 355 IP in yankee stadium, a rate of 1.78

    He has a career ERA of 4.58 and we could argue one HR per 9 IP could potentially be removed. That is going to have a huge impact on his ERA.

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    So they have to beat out the starters we have to be worth anything, regardless of where they are in their development. I see.
    I'm not saying they're not worth anything at all. Everyone thinks that Meyer/May could be good players down the road. But if you're a Twins fan, the guys down in the minors aren't doing the big club any good at all. It's hard to get excited about our supposed depth when our 'talent' hasn't made it yet.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I still think he's better than that. Every start has been plagued by one bad inning mixed into nearly-unhittable baseball.

    And Tonkin really screwed over his stat line in that last start. Still not good but not as awful as it looked on paper.
    And Mauer didn't help, either.

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