04-17-2014, 11:32 AM #41
Wasn't inconsistency Hughes' bugaboo in NY? I know 3 starts is way too early to conclude anything, but given that, the results so far shouldn't be that surprising or require explanation, right?
Here are Hughes' stats by inning last year:
Seems like a fair amount of fluctuation there, which suggests scattered "big innings", as compared to, say, Kevin Correia:
Glancing at a couple linescores from his 2013 game logs, I see Hughes was chased from his first start during a 4 run inning, had a 7 run disaster inning in May, had a 5 run inning to begin June...
(An aside: Correia was a beast last year in the 5th inning! 0.32 ERA! Maybe a new market inefficiency? )
04-17-2014, 11:42 AM #42
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I don't get the Deduno hate. Just look at the numbers. As Nick said, he's been successful everywhere he's pitched the last two years. Yeah, he's 30, but he had TJ surgery at 26. Prior to that, we wasn't given much of an opportunity. At 28 and healthy, he started pitching like he's capable of. Why is his age even relevant here? He's not a prospect. He's a successful reclamation project."If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."
04-17-2014, 11:42 AM #43
15 IP, 13 H, 5 BB, 17 K. That is a WHIP of 1.20 and 10.24 K per 9 innings. You give me that over the next 3 years and these discussions will be very different.
04-17-2014, 12:33 PM #44
Also, it's not really fair to suggest his high 2014 BABIP will revert to career norms, but not apply the same to his high 2014 K rate. We don't expect him to be a 10 K/9 starter, right?
Finally, I am definitely not suggesting he will continue to be a 7.20 ERA pitcher... just that these early returns suggest he may be closer to the up-and-down, 4.60 ERA pitcher he was with New York, than the hidden gem many were hoping for.
04-17-2014, 12:35 PM #45
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I Hughes PA OPS 1st PA in G as SP 1207 .722 2nd PA in G as SP 1156 .788 3rd PA in G as SP 786 .849
For whatever reason, batters only need to see Hughes once before they turn into Andre Ethier. Twice before they turn into David Wright.
Maybe he should swap roles with Deduno?
I Deduno PA OPS 1st PA in G as SP 293 .681 2nd PA in G as SP 283 .767 3rd PA in G as SP 218 .731
Plus, Hughes has been amazing as a reliever.
I Hughes PA BB SO OPS 1st PA in G as RP 214 17 69 .501
04-17-2014, 01:09 PM #46
04-17-2014, 01:44 PM #47
But three consecutive starts of 5 IP, 4 ER, near 100 pitches each, doesn't exactly make me optimistic that he's going to wind up better than the inconsistent, inefficient 4.60 ERA starter he has been with the Yankees the past 4 seasons. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing at his price, certainly an improvement over most of our 2012-2013 starting staff -- but not the kind of piece that leads to great surplus value, or is a key contributor for a surprise contender. (A problem exacerbated by the fact the same description is likely to apply to our other 3 FA SP signings the past two offseasons.)
04-17-2014, 02:01 PM #48
04-17-2014, 02:29 PM #49
Still, that means he may hit that 4.15 in his up season(s), which would certainly be helpful.
04-17-2014, 02:30 PM #50
04-17-2014, 02:58 PM #51
He has given up 43 HR outside of the new yankee stadium in 440 IP, a rate of .87 per 9 IP.
He has given up 71 HR in 355 IP in yankee stadium, a rate of 1.78
He has a career ERA of 4.58 and we could argue one HR per 9 IP could potentially be removed. That is going to have a huge impact on his ERA.
04-17-2014, 09:26 PM #52
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04-18-2014, 01:37 AM #53
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