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Thread: If you think Florimon is bad.....

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    Yeah, because he's a below average hitter. And i've never claimed that Florimon will ever turn out to be anything fantastic at the plate. All I've ever hoped for is that given the circumstances, we can afford to and should give him one more season to show some improvement at the plate. That's it. And the reason why I think it's worth giving him another opportunity in the first place goes back to my initial claim that his defensive skill set only comes around every so often. Does that make things a little more clear to everyone?

    His defensive skill set + our organizational circumstances = It's a good idea to give him another opportunity. Obviously the Twins agree because he's the starting SS.

    If he doesn't show any improvement this year, then lets bring back J.J. Hardy in the off season or sign someone else or trade for someone else. Is that not fair?
    I agree with this post far more than your first, though I don't necessarily agree that just because the Twins make a decision means it's the right one. As others pointed out and you point out here, because we don't have another option that is much better there's not a compelling reason not to have him play. But there are a few issues.

    I think the point about his defensive skillset "coming around only every so often" is not because it's challenging to find fantastic fielders that can play SS but because it's challenging to combine that skillset with a minimum level of hitting that is required to play in the majors, and that minimum level of hitting is often represented by the shortstop position. Even at the most important defensive position, there is a minimum standard for hitting because a glove can only make up for so much poor hitting.

    Then there's a case that some might make that he's a good, but overrated SS. As an example, he ranks right in the middle of ML shortstops in Fangraphs UZR/150 in 2013. While we could debate the exact accuracy of such statistics, unique talents tend not to rank in the middle.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    Yeah, because he's a below average hitter. And i've never claimed that Florimon will ever turn out to be anything fantastic at the plate.
    Not sure if that's true, let's put it to the test:

    Avg. SS slash line 2012-13: .255/.309/.371/.680 Average Average

    Nunez slash line 2012-13: .267/.313/.377/.690 A Bit Above Average
    Dozier slash line 2012-14: .237/.300/.387/.687 A Bit Above Average

    Punto slash line 2012/14: .240/.327/.305/.632 Below Average
    Brendan Harris slash 12/14: .206/.253/.355/.607 Below Average

    Florimon slash line 2012/14: .213/.274/.315/.589 Bad
    Escobar slash line 2012/14: .228/.280/.306/.586 Bad

    Nearly 100 points in OPS below "average." Only Clint Barnes and Brendan Ryan have lower levels of hitting futility since 2012.
    Last edited by jokin; 04-17-2014 at 10:02 AM.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    Yeah, because he's a below average hitter. And i've never claimed that Florimon will ever turn out to be anything fantastic at the plate. All I've ever hoped for is that given the circumstances, we can afford to and should give him one more season to show some improvement at the plate. That's it. And the reason why I think it's worth giving him another opportunity in the first place goes back to my initial claim that his defensive skill set only comes around every so often. Does that make things a little more clear to everyone?

    His defensive skill set + our organizational circumstances = It's a good idea to give him another opportunity. Obviously the Twins agree because he's the starting SS.

    If he doesn't show any improvement this year, then lets bring back J.J. Hardy in the off season or sign someone else or trade for someone else. Is that not fair?
    Of course, if you are willing to (or even expecting to) punt a season or more, you can give guys like Florimon "another opportunity" all over your roster. Doesn't usually produce compelling baseball, though, as evidenced by the past few Twins seasons.

    Also, quality SS options aren't that easily obtained (or we arguably wouldn't have been running out Florimon in the first place). One or both of Hardy and Cabrera could easily be extended/expensive/hurt by next winter, then you'd be left trying to force a trade. You definitely shouldn't pass on any options, or reduce your aggressiveness in finding them, in favor of your suspect ~.600 OPS option.

    That said, it's not clear how much the Twins have passed on -- there were the two Cubans (Diaz and Guerrero, the former who signed very cheap, and the latter who has already debuted nicely as a 2B for the Dodgers AAA club). The Drew situation is obviously weird now, although he probably warranted at least as much aggression for this club as Ervin Santana (3/30). And despite their alleged surpluses, Arizona and Seattle (and the Dodgers?) haven't moved any infielders yet.

    Now, I am just hoping for a tightening of Florimon's leash, and a sizable audition for Danny Santana if he remotely warrants it -- if we're not going to go after an outside solution, we should at least figure out some part of our SS future this year. The Florimon job guarantee going into spring training and the Nunez acquisition aren't great returns on that idea so far, but it is still quite early.

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  5. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Only Clint Barnes and Brendan Ryan have lower levels of hitting futility since 2012.
    And both of these guys, it should be noted, have lost starting jobs, been available as free agents, and have taken paycuts for bench roles during this time frame.

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  7. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    And both of these guys, it should be noted, have lost starting jobs, been available as free agents, and have taken paycuts for bench roles during this time frame.
    Excellent point. As we've debated over and over on countless threads, it's highly unlikely that either Twins player will ever be a starter in their career on any team other than a bottom-feeder.
    Last edited by jokin; 04-17-2014 at 10:00 AM.

  8. #46
    Among batters with 400+ plate appearances last year, Florimon was 9th worst according to wRC+ and wOBA (purely offensive statistics) - ahead of three other shortstops. So I don't think he's a slightly below average hitter.

    BUT - (according to Fangraphs at least) his defense and base running more than made up for it. His 9.9 defensive WAR was 13th and his and 3.7 base running WAR was good for 5th among shortstops.

  9. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    The only thing people can say bad about Florimon is that he's a below average hitter.
    That may be the only thing, but hitting is basically the most important aspect of baseball, so it's kind of a big deal.

  10. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Frasier Law View Post
    Among batters with 400+ plate appearances last year, Florimon was 9th worst according to wRC+ and wOBA (purely offensive statistics) - ahead of three other shortstops. So I don't think he's a slightly below average hitter.

    BUT - (according to Fangraphs at least) his defense and base running more than made up for it. His 9.9 defensive WAR was 13th and his and 3.7 base running WAR was good for 5th among shortstops.
    But there are problems that even Fangraphs acknowledges with small, year-to-year dWAR numbers that make it highly questionable if the alleged value derived, in fact, "more than made up for it"; and his base running value is severely diminished when you don't have much ability to get on base.

  11. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    Its not a perfect comparison, but Florimon and Jose Iglesias were very similar players up until last year. All glove, no bat. Iglesias turns in one really good offensive season that no previous numbers would suggest are possible and is flipped, essentially, for a guy that is comparable to Oswaldo Arcia (Avisail Garcia).

    Obviously his current offense is unacceptable, but I'd still give him til June 1st to get to .220 (.650) before I pull the plug, especially given his spring injury.
    That is an interesting comp. Iglesias minor league stats don't indicate he has much offensive ability either. One main difference is Detroit had Cabrera, Infante & Fielder as IF'ers so they could afford a good field, no hit SS easier than the Twins can.

    I don't think anyone is claiming that Florimon doesn't suck (big large sucking sound) as a hitter. I just believe that Florimon is the best current option @ SS & if he could improve to .250 & take a few more walks he would be more than adequate.

    I really enjoy watching him play defense. I think he's an elite defender & he & Dozier turn far more DP than previous DP combo's. I occasionally listen to the other teams announcers & they often rave about his defensive ability....offense, not so much.

    I'd give him until at least June 1 to show improvement, probably longer unless Nunez shows a lot @ AAA.

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  13. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    This understates the difference. Using Florimon's games played total is misleading, as Florimon left early for a pinch hitter a lot and Peralta did not. (Additionally, Florimon accumulated games faster Peralta, despite near-equal PA, due to batting 9th on a poorer hitting team.)

    Florimon and Peralta both played exactly 102 "complete games" in 2013, and each had 446 and 448 PAs, respectively. Either of those figures would be much more appropriate for this comparison.

    That takes it down to 1 extra base every 1.8 games, which is actually a pretty massive difference. If you compare Mauer to Kurt Suzuki for 2013 (prorating Suzuki's stats to Mauer's PA), Mauer only had 1 extra base every 1.9 games. Comparing prorated Hicks to Carlos Gomez in 2013, it's 1 extra base every 1.6 games.

    It's exactly the difference you would expect between an all-star and a scrub.
    I agree with your adjustments to my sloppy math. (I actually appreciate it)

    I also agree that it's the difference between an all star and a scrub.

    However... I still believe the margins are thin.

    With that said... Yes... Let's find a better hitter if we can. If we can't... There are a bunch of teams in the same boat.
    A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

  14. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    But there are problems that even Fangraphs acknowledges with small, year-to-year dWAR numbers that make it highly questionable if the alleged value derived, in fact, "more than made up for it"; and his base running value is severely diminished when you don't have much ability to get on base.
    Agreed that dWAR can't be trusted to be 100% accurate. However, I don't think we have any reason to doubt that it's at least close. And his 3.7 base running WAR is cumulative - so he accumulated a significant amount of value despite being on base so rarely.

  15. #52
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    If I'm reading the consensus right, it's something like this:

    1. It's too early to give up on Florimon. Give him somewhere between May 1 and June 1 to get his wing back, such as it is.

    2. At some point around mid-season, we should give the job to Santana to see what he can do, if for no other reason than to get a better sense of what we have going into the off-season.

    3. A few people are arguing to give it to Escobar until Santana is ready. But that is a minority opinion.

    4. Even fewer are arguing to give it to Nunez until Santana is ready.

    I think 1. and 2. can line up well. I have seen signs of Florimon breaking out of his slump lately. Not that he'll ever hit well enough to keep the job long term. But he won't suck overall as stop gap until they think Santana is good enough to get the job.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  16. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    Its not a perfect comparison, but Florimon and Jose Iglesias were very similar players up until last year. All glove, no bat. Iglesias turns in one really good offensive season that no previous numbers would suggest are possible and is flipped, essentially, for a guy that is comparable to Oswaldo Arcia (Avisail Garcia).
    I know you say it's not a perfect comparison, so I won't pick on it too bad, but it's worth remembering that Iglesias is younger and was rushed through the minors much more quickly. He sucked when he jumped to AAA... but he jumped to AAA at age 21. Florimon didn't even appear in a AAA game until age 25. Iglesias only just turned 24.

    Also the shape of their sucking has been different. Iglesias has even less power and draws even fewer walks than Florimon, which doesn't bode well, but he has never K'd much (sometimes half Florimon's rate), which makes him a better bet for BABIP luck, or even to be the kind of "put the ball in play, advance the runner" type, bottom of the order hitter many here keep wishing Pedro would be.

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  18. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    If I'm reading the consensus right, it's something like this:

    1. It's too early to give up on Florimon. Give him somewhere between May 1 and June 1 to get his wing back, such as it is.

    2. At some point around mid-season, we should give the job to Santana to see what he can do, if for no other reason than to get a better sense of what we have going into the off-season.

    3. A few people are arguing to give it to Escobar until Santana is ready. But that is a minority opinion.

    4. Even fewer are arguing to give it to Nunez until Santana is ready.

    I think 1. and 2. can line up well. I have seen signs of Florimon breaking out of his slump lately. Not that he'll ever hit well enough to keep the job long term. But he won't suck overall as stop gap until they think Santana is good enough to get the job.
    Unfortunately for your analysis, the only consensus that matters is Gardy, and Gardy, by all indications, is likely leaning towards #4. With every quote he sounds like he's going to give Nunez every chance to take the job away from Florimon temporarily, until, and if, Santana can prove himself ready to earn a shot at the job- with Nunez then taking a utility role. Should this happen- and Nunez doesn't completely screw up, it will be interesting to see what the Twins decide to do with Florimon.

  19. #55
    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    Keep Nunez up for a few weeks, send Pedro down to work on his hitting with a little less pressure on him and maybe even teach him how to bunt. In two-three weeks decide which way to go.
    Side note: kind of hard to use base running as a plus for a guy like Pedro that never gets on base. I think the saying is "you can't steal first base."
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  21. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Frasier Law View Post
    Agreed that dWAR can't be trusted to be 100% accurate. However, I don't think we have any reason to doubt that it's at least close. And his 3.7 base running WAR is cumulative - so he accumulated a significant amount of value despite being on base so rarely.
    I was referring to his current situation regarding base running, his current numbers truly make him unplayable. His BA and OPS are either just below or just above the average Pitcher stats- and most Pitchers are able to bunt better than Florimon can. A trip to the minors might at least help him regain a minimum threshold of acceptable major league awfulness at the plate.

  22. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
    Keep Nunez up for a few weeks, send Pedro down to work on his hitting with a little less pressure on him and maybe even teach him how to bunt. In two-three weeks decide which way to go.
    Side note: kind of hard to use base running as a plus for a guy like Pedro that never gets on base. I think the saying is "you can't steal first base."
    Sorry Winston, didn't mean to step on your well-stated and logical points. I was typing while you were pressing "post"

  23. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
    I agree with your adjustments to my sloppy math. (I actually appreciate it)

    I also agree that it's the difference between an all star and a scrub.

    However... I still believe the margins are thin.

    With that said... Yes... Let's find a better hitter if we can. If we can't... There are a bunch of teams in the same boat.
    I'd just point out that a lot of the margins in baseball are thin, including the difference between Florimon's defense and an average SS in terms of runs saved. Accepting and finding those margins on a personnel (player) level and a game by game (stragegy: lineup construction, etc.) level is what makes one team a playoff contender and another a bottom feeder.

  24. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
    With that said... Yes... Let's find a better hitter if we can. If we can't... There are a bunch of teams in the same boat.
    If by "a bunch of teams" you mean primarily the Mets, Astros, and Marlins, that's not good company.

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