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Thread: Pitching to Extraordinary Contact

  1. #21
    Re: year-to-year comparisons. It may be that year-to-year is not granular enough to show the trends/change. Using stats from something like units of 20 innings, in a time series, perhaps displayed in a Shewhart Control Chart might be revealing.

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    In 2009, I did a quick and dirty study on what metrics best predict and ERA for the following year. It turns out that K/BB isn't particularly good for that. More surprising to me was that ground ball percentage was completely random. (Now that I see that, I want to revisit that study. That seems like it would be an error.) And the big conclusion is that almost nothing predicts it well. There's a lot of "secret sauce" in pitching.

    That study is here, for those that are interested.
    Very interesting, and fun with numbers as they say - I won't post or link to the whole article that describes this because it's behind a paywall, but a site I subscribe to published a great article on this subject and looking at the years from 2002-2006 there was a direct correlation between Command (K/BB) and ERA. Here are the charts from the article, you of course would want to read the whole article to get all the details, but it is pretty significant in my mind anyway, you can see a nice trend downward in ERA based upon a players command. This was true for all 5 years of the study. This is also the study that showed 5.6 k/9 was the "magic line" combined with Command to denote a lower ERA.

    Earned Run Average
    Command 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
    0.0 - 1.0 6.05 5.85 6.24 6.22 6.42
    1.1 - 1.5 4.79 5.05 5.16 4.93 5.06
    1.6 - 2.0 4.59 4.51 4.63 4.41 4.65
    2.1 - 2.5 3.98 4.22 4.30 4.28 4.48
    2.6 - 3.0 3.60 3.80 3.80 3.60 4.15
    3.1 and over 3.15 3.30 3.30 3.45 3.49

    We can create percentage plays for the different levels:

    For Cmd Pct who post
    Levels of 3.50- 4.50+
    0.0 - 1.0 0% 87%
    1.1 - 1.5 7% 67%
    1.6 - 2.0 7% 57%
    2.1 - 2.5 19% 35%
    2.6 - 3.0 26% 25%
    3.1 + 53% 5%

  3. #23
    Super Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by whydidnt View Post
    Very interesting, and fun with numbers as they say - I won't post or link to the whole article that describes this because it's behind a paywall, but a site I subscribe to published a great article on this subject and looking at the years from 2002-2006 there was a direct correlation between Command (K/BB) and ERA. Here are the charts from the article, you of course would want to read the whole article to get all the details, but it is pretty significant in my mind anyway, you can see a nice trend downward in ERA based upon a players command. This was true for all 5 years of the study. This is also the study that showed 5.6 k/9 was the "magic line" combined with Command to denote a lower ERA.

    Earned Run Average
    Command 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
    0.0 - 1.0 6.05 5.85 6.24 6.22 6.42
    1.1 - 1.5 4.79 5.05 5.16 4.93 5.06
    1.6 - 2.0 4.59 4.51 4.63 4.41 4.65
    2.1 - 2.5 3.98 4.22 4.30 4.28 4.48
    2.6 - 3.0 3.60 3.80 3.80 3.60 4.15
    3.1 and over 3.15 3.30 3.30 3.45 3.49

    We can create percentage plays for the different levels:

    For Cmd Pct who post
    Levels of 3.50- 4.50+
    0.0 - 1.0 0% 87%
    1.1 - 1.5 7% 67%
    1.6 - 2.0 7% 57%
    2.1 - 2.5 19% 35%
    2.6 - 3.0 26% 25%
    3.1 + 53% 5%
    Stats can tell some real good stories in Baseball... They are important... However... You can boil it down real simple with this... On Offense don't make outs... Reach base. On Defense... don't give up extra outs...
    The game boils down real simple that way... They've been saying it since the beginning of time... "Walks will kill ya"... Still true today...

  4. #24
    On the same point about so-called "elite strikeout guys" (usually 9.00 K/9 or better), I will say that there seems to be a limit on how bad you can be if you can make THAT many guys miss. That certainly is not the case for pitch-to-contact guys, such as the entire Twins staff. Pavano can avoid walks as much as he wants, he's serving up batting practice, so a 5.00 or 6.00 ERA is within reach.

    Brandon Morrow is probably the upper limit of how bad you can be for a top-tier strikeout pitcher. Dude is a machine: 10.9 K/9 in 2010 and 10.2 in 2011. But his ERA's for those years were 4.49 and 4.72. Probably didn't help that he pitched a lot at Rogers Center, which is hitter and homer-friendly. But like the ESPN Baseball podcast was saying about Tim Lincecum, you can't be on pace for 214 strikeouts AND have an ERA around 6.00, that doesn't make any sense.

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    In 2009, I did a quick and dirty study on what metrics best predict and ERA for the following year. .
    I was going to say "why not just use xFIP/SIERA/etc." but then I clicked the link (and realized I'd already read this). The high result of Ks and relatively low result for BBs mirror what Tango found for his "future FIP". Any DIPs stat is going to beat simple K/BB, I would think, since they weight things more appropriately in terms of value.

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