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Thread: Article: Roster Shuffle: Twins Add Guerrier, What's Next?

  1. #161
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    ERA + is ERA. K/9 Pelfrey was better. And better is subjective. Objective measures say that others were better
    The only metric that has another starter better than Deduno is fWAR, which is a junk stat for past performance, as it relies on what should have happened, not what actually happened.

    Good for future predictions, not good at telling us what actually happened.

  2. #162
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sconnie View Post
    Antony might not be THE issue, but his decisions are a symptom of the larger issue of managerial depth. The team was destroyed during Bill Smith's tenure after taking over for TR. Smith that bad, or Smith that unprepared and an organization that unable to build management from within? TR comes back, makes great minor league depth moves but the major league team sucks. TR takes a leave of absence to treat cancer. Rob Antony takes over, the major league roster is worse yet, and they've managed to lose prospects for over the hill relievers, and lose position player depth at the position they are trying to build upon.

    TR has the ability to effectively manage the roster, but RA seems to be making decisions on an island, and that island is becoming populated by pitchers and catchers, and doesn't have enough other species to keep the island from becoming too inbred. Is Antony incompetent? Or is the organization unable to build the required managerial talent, or support? If Gardy is the only source of support, the bigger picture gets lost.
    The elephant in the room is that Antony was Smith's right arm and Smith was an administrator, by his own admission, delegating many of the decisions to his Luitenants, primarily Antony. Ryan injected a level of sanity back into the circus that Smith and Antony created. But as soon as Ryan was out of the picture, the circus resumed.

    Both those guys grew up in a Twins organization that used to make fans throw back batting practice balls and hand back broken bats so they could be sold at the Pro Shop. That's how Antony manages: Let's scrape the bottom of the barrel and see if we can eat it.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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  4. #163
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    MLR....agreed. We don't see how decisions are made. But, we do see the outcomes of decisions. There really is no good way to explain the Bartlett decision. No amount of understanding the process would lead someone to conclude it was a good decision for a rebuilding team. Same with carrying 8 RP. Same with bringing on a 35 year old RP. Not on a rebuilding team.

    If the process is based on an analysis that this is a legit contender, well, not sure how to justify that either.

    You are right. We don't have the information we do. But, if we are going to spend hours of time discussing Twins baseball, about all we can do is judge the FO on outcomes. Based on those, the last three years, and the roster mistakes this year.....what do you think?
    Lighten up Francis....

  5. #164
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    When I'm told that Deduno wasn't the best starter in 2013 and stats can prove it.

    Metrics become witchcraft at that point.

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  7. #165
    Senior Member All-Star crarko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
    When I'm told that Deduno wasn't the best starter in 2013 and stats can prove it.

    Metrics become witchcraft at that point.
    image.jpg
    Mystery creates wonder, and wonder is the basis of man's desire to understand. - N. Armstrong

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  9. #166
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    If you count winning percentage and EEA he was. With every other measure he wasn't.
    What do you have against Deduno? When he was on the major league roster, he was clearly the best guy on the staff, even after he hurt his shoulder and tried to pitch with it. It wasn't even particularly close. His competition was horse hockey, so maybe it's not saying much. But he was Secretariat to the rest of that field.

    Sure, he didn't join the team until late May because he pulled his groin pitching in the WBC championship game. But that's hardly his fault. It was so wet on the mound, they had to use a squeegee to remove the puddle where his foot landed. I've never seen a serious analyst use counting stats against a guy who was injured. So you can't be serious, right? Or, perhaps you have something else against him that cannot be numerically verified, like he walked away when your granddaughter asked for an autograph, or something.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  10. #167
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    MLR....agreed. We don't see how decisions are made. But, we do see the outcomes of decisions. There really is no good way to explain the Bartlett decision. No amount of understanding the process would lead someone to conclude it was a good decision for a rebuilding team. Same with carrying 8 RP. Same with bringing on a 35 year old RP. Not on a rebuilding team.

    If the process is based on an analysis that this is a legit contender, well, not sure how to justify that either.

    You are right. We don't have the information we do. But, if we are going to spend hours of time discussing Twins baseball, about all we can do is judge the FO on outcomes. Based on those, the last three years, and the roster mistakes this year.....what do you think?
    Here is my theory which is, of course, conjecture just like everything else. It seems to me that Gardy had an inordinate amount of sway during the Bill Smith era and I see signs of it now when Rob Antony is in charge. Gardy makes up his mind about things and players and, sometimes, it appears that these decisions are made on subjective feelings or hunches. You combine that with Gardy's strong will to win (which I commend him for) and you have the perfect storm for bad, bigger picture personnel decisions. Of course, the most obvious example of this is the whole Bartlett fiasco which has Gardy written all over it. It seems that TR must be more assertive with him in these situations.

    The latest thing I have read that scares me is Gardy's public criticism of Danny Santana. He's already getting an attitude about the kid after his first week in the big leagues. It seems that Gardy doesn't like talented (but undeveloped) middle infielders. Maybe because they aren't grinders from Oklahoma?

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  12. #168
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    Quote Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready View Post
    I evaluate management teams every day but I would not be inclined to grade the Twins FO, at least not in any meaningful way. We don't have all the information necessary to make a credible assessment.
    This is clearly wrong. We have a lot of information - far more than would typically be available with respect to the management of a company (even an issuer with additional SEC disclosure requirements).

    MLB's composition allows for clubs to be compared directly in a way that companies cannot be, without significant analytical adjustments. Clubs all have the same basic structure. Their approach to making money can vary by market, but their baseball objectives are essentially the same- to win. Clubs go through 'rebuilding' phases and what not, but even then the club's ultimate purpose is to contend for the championship. MLB is a closed system with a relatively small number of variables.

    Moreover, the structure of the system is public information and easy to understand. There is no real mystery about how the 40-man roster system works or how waivers are processed. The results are also easy to analyze- wins and losses, of course, but player-level performance is much easier to gauge than is often the case with respect to employees in a professional setting.

    The "we don't know" cop out is just a defense of the front office built on false assumptions. We absolutely have enough information, for instance, to say that it was a mistake for Bartlett to make the 25-man roster out of Spring Training. We can see that most every, or every other club has better high-minors OF depth, and thus we can say that the Twins failed to provide adequate depth. The list of course goes on.

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  14. #169
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Linus View Post
    Here is my theory which is, of course, conjecture just like everything else. It seems to me that Gardy had an inordinate amount of sway during the Bill Smith era and I see signs of it now when Rob Antony is in charge. Gardy makes up his mind about things and players and, sometimes, it appears that these decisions are made on subjective feelings or hunches. You combine that with Gardy's strong will to win (which I commend him for) and you have the perfect storm for bad, bigger picture personnel decisions. Of course, the most obvious example of this is the whole Bartlett fiasco which has Gardy written all over it. It seems that TR must be more assertive with him in these situations.

    The latest thing I have read that scares me is Gardy's public criticism of Danny Santana. He's already getting an attitude about the kid after his first week in the big leagues. It seems that Gardy doesn't like talented (but undeveloped) middle infielders. Maybe because they aren't grinders from Oklahoma?
    This. Exactly this. Gardy is the king of the hill until Ryan gets back. He exerts the authority due to him by his tenure. Bill Smith is not and never was a baseball man. He started out in accounting. Rob Antony is not and never was a baseball man. He started out in PR. They can try to paint him as a "talent evaluator," but that's bogus, and Gardy knows it. So Gardy will win every argument until Ryan gets back. Ryan is the consummate baseball man, which is what it takes to put Gardy in his place.

    Clearly Gardy doesn't know how to put a roster together. And Antony just defers to him. I have little hope it will improve until Ryan returns to re-exert his authority.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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    Buxton!!

    Aren't you guys tired of having these light hitting center fielders up and playing?? Again, why not let Buxton come up for a month and see what he can do. Put him as the 9th hitter and let him go.

    His D is already there; Hmmm, perhaps he could hit say 260 in his initial development!! Or perhaps, 270, uuuuuuuu

    Or you guys probably want to get Pressley back; and the others of bygone years......

  16. #171
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PatG View Post
    Aren't you guys tired of having these light hitting center fielders up and playing?? Again, why not let Buxton come up for a month and see what he can do. Put him as the 9th hitter and let him go.
    The kid is shaking off the rust from a wrist injury in A+ ball. He's nowhere near the majors right now.

    If he had started the season as planned in AA, maybe... but not after the injury. No way.

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  18. #172
    Senior Member All-Star Sconnie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Linus View Post
    Here is my theory which is, of course, conjecture just like everything else. It seems to me that Gardy had an inordinate amount of sway during the Bill Smith era and I see signs of it now when Rob Antony is in charge. Gardy makes up his mind about things and players and, sometimes, it appears that these decisions are made on subjective feelings or hunches. You combine that with Gardy's strong will to win (which I commend him for) and you have the perfect storm for bad, bigger picture personnel decisions. Of course, the most obvious example of this is the whole Bartlett fiasco which has Gardy written all over it. It seems that TR must be more assertive with him in these situations.

    The latest thing I have read that scares me is Gardy's public criticism of Danny Santana. He's already getting an attitude about the kid after his first week in the big leagues. It seems that Gardy doesn't like talented (but undeveloped) middle infielders. Maybe because they aren't grinders from Oklahoma?
    I agree that it looks like Gardy has an inordinate amount of sway, there are decisions made that don't follow what I imagine Gardy to want. Why would Gardy rather have only one CF on the 25 and only two on the 40 and the one in AAA is out of options?

    Guerrier is 100% a Gardy move, I have no doubt, Gardy loves his established vets' even if they are washed up old has-beens. But the 40 man especially the outfield doesn't follow in my mind.

    I also wrote about the similarities of Antony to Smith. It feels very much the same, just as short sited, only much cheaper and less effective FAs.

  19. #173
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    This. Exactly this. Gardy is the king of the hill until Ryan gets back. He exerts the authority due to him by his tenure. Bill Smith is not and never was a baseball man. He started out in accounting. Rob Antony is not and never was a baseball man. He started out in PR. They can try to paint him as a "talent evaluator," but that's bogus, and Gardy knows it. So Gardy will win every argument until Ryan gets back. Ryan is the consummate baseball man, which is what it takes to put Gardy in his place.

    Clearly Gardy doesn't know how to put a roster together. And Antony just defers to him. I have little hope it will improve until Ryan returns to re-exert his authority.
    To expand on this even further, consider these Gardy habits and their affect on the roster:

    1. 3rd catcher to "protect" against losing the DH spot
    2. Bullpen handling. He uses so many pitchers to get so few outs that they are stuck with 13 pitchers no matter how hard they try to get down to 12.
    3. Security blanket / favorite guy spot no matter if needed or if it makes sense.

    Each of these three costs us a grand total of 3 roster spots, maybe 4 if you consider it possible to go with 11 pitchers (don't know how many teams do that these days).

    So, these are not just annoying little habits - they have a very really effect on the roster management.

  20. #174
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I'm at a loss how you can agree with almost every word, as CF, which requires at least 2 players at the major league level and 2 in AAA, is the sine qua non for building OF depth and maintaining reasonable solutions should the worst happen. The Twins failed at this effort, utterly, and with malice aforethought- per their strange and inexplicable attraction to Jason Bartlett over exercising plain old common sense

    And Duluth fails to acknowledge that losing 4 OFs didn't happen all at once. The first 2 losses were over a month ago. And because of ridiculous roster decisions, 2 legitimate CFers were lost needlessly- and another legit AAA depth guy was let go in ST (Mitchell). The Twins have done nothing, save claiming Sam Fuld, to remedy this predicament of their own making.

    We concur, they clearly learned nothing from 2013 regarding the OF- only instead, now all 4 OF came in with huge question marks surrounding them. And I take strong issue with Duluth on the "planning thing". Yes, they "plan", but the problem is, and the evidence clearly shows it to be true, they always tend to stop their planning at Plan A.
    It's easy enough to explain... Duluth had a great post... It was reasoned and well thought out and I agree with most of it. The overall sentiment of what he posted are things that I've said over and over again.

    Jokin... You and I are in lockstep over Bonofacio... We agree that the approach to CF was a head scratcher. However... There are other places where you and I disagree and that's OK.

    A. I did say almost... I personally don't agree with the 3 catcher thing... With Mauer on the roster... You have an emergency catcher... Even if Mauer was still catcher with Pinto as the backup and DH... I think carrying a third catcher is overkill but I understand why Gardy feels the way he does.

    B. Duluth is right... Willingham, Arcia, Hicks, Fuld and let's include Mauer (because 1B takes away an OF) are all out and it's May... It's tough to plan for that. That's your entire starting OF plus two backups if Cola has to play 1B. It isn't fair to hang anybody for that.

    C. Duluth is right... 13 Pitchers... Sometimes you need to have 13 and sometimes you don't. Our starters haven't been tossing 9 innings... Our pen is being used.

    D. Duluth is right... I think some of us tend to look in from the outside and over simplify things. I don't think the GM job is like what you and I do running a fantasy baseball team through ESPN.

    I don't believe that the GM is primarily focused on roster construction... I believe the GM works long hours because he oversees things that we haven't even thought of including making sure someone is in charge of diamond dust in Ft. Myers. I believe that the GM rubber stamps player acquisition on players that he hasn't personally seen. I believe he makes moves based on the recommendations of people working under him that he trusts. It's a large organization... There are a ton of people who play different roles and they all do something and they all have a lot of experience working in the baseball business... More experience than I have. It's not a stretch to give them all the benefit of the doubt... I believe that there are disagreements inside those walls all the time because it would be like any large corp.

    I also don't believe that Antony is simply making the calls with Ryan unwilling to answer his cell phone. Antony may be handling the diamond dust thing in Ft. Myers but Antony isn't going to cut Brian Dozier without talking to Ryan about it.

    So Yeah... I agree with almost everything Duluth posted.

    When I say that I want to know who was the inside advocate for Bartlett playing CF... I really want to know and that's all there is to it... It's not because I want to hang that person. I just want to know why? Because for the life of me... I can't understand it.

    From the outside... It appears to me that Bartlett and the lack of needed attention to CF are tied together.
    Last edited by Riverbrian; 05-09-2014 at 09:55 AM.

  21. #175
    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Linus View Post
    Here is my theory which is, of course, conjecture just like everything else. It seems to me that Gardy had an inordinate amount of sway during the Bill Smith era and I see signs of it now when Rob Antony is in charge. Gardy makes up his mind about things and players and, sometimes, it appears that these decisions are made on subjective feelings or hunches. You combine that with Gardy's strong will to win (which I commend him for) and you have the perfect storm for bad, bigger picture personnel decisions. Of course, the most obvious example of this is the whole Bartlett fiasco which has Gardy written all over it. It seems that TR must be more assertive with him in these situations.

    The latest thing I have read that scares me is Gardy's public criticism of Danny Santana. He's already getting an attitude about the kid after his first week in the big leagues. It seems that Gardy doesn't like talented (but undeveloped) middle infielders. Maybe because they aren't grinders from Oklahoma?
    I have no idea what is happening inside those walls and I can't pretend that I do... But... When major players step aside... Dynamics change.

    Gardy and Ryan together is one dynamic and Gardy and Antony with Ryan still in charge but doing less could be another different dynamic that leads to different results.

    Gardy and Smith together probably created a different dynamic.

    Does Gardy have more influence on things working with Ryan or does he have more influence working with Smith? I don't know but my experience in the working world suggests that it probably changes. More or less... I don't know.

    I think it's entirely plausible. My curiosity is killing me right now.
    Last edited by Riverbrian; 05-09-2014 at 10:09 AM.

  22. #176
    Quote Originally Posted by twinscowboysbulls View Post
    RANT WARNING

    Moves that need to be made:
    Drop Raley from 40 man.
    Drop Guerrier from 40 man.
    Add Parmelee to 40 man and 25 man.
    Drop Fryer from 40 man.
    Option Florimon to AAA.
    Let Santana start for a couple weeks as regular SS, if he stinks, send him down, Nunez should be ready by then.
    Hicks needs to be ready by tomorrow. Call him up for Florimon.
    .
    I agree with most of these and some have already happened (Florimon down) but we lost Raley. I'm wondering about Nunez. Everything I've read says he is not an MLB caliber SS. His hitting is decent but his fielding is attrocious. Small sample yes but what I've seen of Santana I like. Can Nunez play outfield (and I mean really play outfield. Not like Colabello and Escobar)?

  23. #177
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan214 View Post
    I agree with most of these and some have already happened (Florimon down) but we lost Raley. I'm wondering about Nunez. Everything I've read says he is not an MLB caliber SS. His hitting is decent but his fielding is attrocious. Small sample yes but what I've seen of Santana I like. Can Nunez play outfield (and I mean really play outfield. Not like Colabello and Escobar)?
    He has about 15 MLB games in the outfield in his career. Given his speed and overall athleticism, he should be able to play OF in a pinch (which is why I was so completely floored that he wasn't in the lineup for yesterday's game).

  24. #178
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    He has about 15 MLB games in the outfield in his career. Given his speed and overall athleticism, he should be able to play OF in a pinch (which is why I was so completely floored that he wasn't in the lineup for yesterday's game).
    I don't think he was in the dugout at the start of the game. I think he showed up in the third inning or something.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I don't think he was in the dugout at the start of the game. I think he showed up in the third inning or something.
    That's my point. He should have been the callup the day before, not Guerrier.

    Or if the team absolutely needed Guerrier on the roster for some inexplicable reason, they could have demoted Florimon and called up Nunez.

    Again, the Twins had so many options over the past few weeks and they made the wrong choice at almost every turn. It's breathtaking, really. They kept piling up infielders and relievers while leaving all potential OF help in the minors.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
    It's easy enough to explain... Duluth had a great post... It was reasoned and well thought out and I agree with most of it. The overall sentiment of what he posted are things that I've said over and over again.

    Jokin... You and I are in lockstep over Bonofacio... We agree that the approach to CF was a head scratcher. However... There are other places where you and I disagree and that's OK.

    A. I did say almost... I personally don't agree with the 3 catcher thing... With Mauer on the roster... You have an emergency catcher... Even if Mauer was still catcher with Pinto as the backup and DH... I think carrying a third catcher is overkill but I understand why Gardy feels the way he does.

    B. Duluth is right... Willingham, Arcia, Hicks, Fuld and let's include Mauer (because 1B takes away an OF) are all out and it's May... It's tough to plan for that. That's your entire starting OF plus two backups if Cola has to play 1B. It isn't fair to hang anybody for that.

    C. Duluth is right... 13 Pitchers... Sometimes you need to have 13 and sometimes you don't. Our starters haven't been tossing 9 innings... Our pen is being used.

    D. Duluth is right... I think some of us tend to look in from the outside and over simplify things. I don't think the GM job is like what you and I do running a fantasy baseball team through ESPN.

    I don't believe that the GM is primarily focused on roster construction... I believe the GM works long hours because he oversees things that we haven't even thought of including making sure someone is in charge of diamond dust in Ft. Myers. I believe that the GM rubber stamps player acquisition on players that he hasn't personally seen. I believe he makes moves based on the recommendations of people working under him that he trusts. It's a large organization... There are a ton of people who play different roles and they all do something and they all have a lot of experience working in the baseball business... More experience than I have. It's not a stretch to give them all the benefit of the doubt... I believe that there are disagreements inside those walls all the time because it would be like any large corp.

    I also don't believe that Antony is simply making the calls with Ryan unwilling to answer his cell phone. Antony may be handling the diamond dust thing in Ft. Myers but Antony isn't going to cut Brian Dozier without talking to Ryan about it.

    So Yeah... I agree with almost everything Duluth posted.

    When I say that I want to know who was the inside advocate for Bartlett playing CF... I really want to know and that's all there is to it... It's not because I want to hang that person. I just want to know why? Because for the life of me... I can't understand it.

    From the outside... It appears to me that Bartlett and the lack of needed attention to CF are tied together.
    I understand both points of view, but the "CEO of baseball decisions" or each team's GM, is not involved in these unimportant tasks, such as diamond dust. Each minor league affiliate is independently owned and operated. The Twins organization does nothing but send players to the affiliates. The GM's job is all about the personnel. Yes, he needs to manage a budget and the like, but his ultimate job is building rosters. He constructs (not by himself, but it is ultimately his decision) and manages rosters at all levels. Whether it is the draft, FA, international scouting, waivers, Rule 5, etc, any way to acquire players is on the GM. This is not over-simplifying, this IS his duty. He constructs and manages the rosters. Again, he surely has people that help and advise him (more eyes, the better), but this is his job.

    The Twins scout very well, but roster construction at the MLB level has been a chronic problem.

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