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Thread: Article: Will Trevor Plouffe's Hot Start Continue?

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    Owner All-Star Parker Hageman's Avatar
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    Article: Trevor Plouffe Off To A Fast Start. Will It Last?


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    Senior Member Triple-A Jerr's Avatar
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    Great breakdown and graphics!!!
    Nice to be on a site with such wise baseball fans, as I can learn so much!!!

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    That's really cool how you put those graphics together.

    Of course, I think he'll go down rapidly. His defense seems better though, but maybe that's just my impression for what games I have seen.

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    Senior Member All-Star Badsmerf's Avatar
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    He will adjust. I'm sure they have figured out what is going on by now. Plouffe just has to adjust accordingly. I think he just needs to get aggressive early in the count again. I love that the Twins have a guy like Plouffe that gives us something to talk about on the way to a 90 loss season for the 4th or 5th season (who's counting anyway).

  5. #5
    In 2012, Plouffe gained attention by hitting roughly 750 home runs (estimate) in June and July.
    That must be a record!

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    Senior Member All-Star Sconnie's Avatar
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    Well written with great illustration. Thanks Parker. I think Plouffe will adjust as well. He has shown the ability to adjust in the past, and the season is still young.

  7. #7
    When and if Mauer, Willingham, and Arcia are all back does Plouffe continue to bat third?

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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Prior to May, Plouffe chased after 15.5% of pitches out of the zone, says ESPN/TruMedia. This month he’s expanded this region and offered at 26.7% of all out-of-zone pitches.


    May is small sample size

    here is Plouffe's annual out of zone swinging percentage:

    2010 - 46%
    2011 - 29.4%
    2012 - 26.8%
    2013 - 26.2%
    2014 - 18.8%

    Normal progression. He is 27. It usually happens. It is called "maturing as a hitting", "reaching his prime", etc. Totally normal and there is no reason that it should not continue until he reaches his peak

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jimbo92107's Avatar
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    Since we know everybody in baseball has these same heat maps, then it becomes like a game of poker, except it's zone hitting. Plouffe needs to learn to cut the outside pitches out of his trigger zone temporarily. This will result in some walks and some standing strikeouts. However, once he sees a pitcher starting to throw a lot of outside strikes, then he needs to pounce on one of those outside pitches, thus creating doubt about that strategy.

    Plouffe seems like a pretty smart guy, and he's got a lot of smart coaches. He'll adjust.

  10. #10
    Senior Member Triple-A h2oface's Avatar
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    Thanks for the great article and graphics. I really enjoy them both. It seems that Plouffe's hot start has been over for a couple of weeks now, though. If he gets back to how he started, it will be a rebound, and not a continued "hot start".

  11. #11
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    It appears it's over officially. Now can it be regained is the better question.

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    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    Prior to May, Plouffe chased after 15.5% of pitches out of the zone, says ESPN/TruMedia. This month he’s expanded this region and offered at 26.7% of all out-of-zone pitches.

    Bingo... This has been his problem in the past and this is his problem during the current slump.

    If he fixes this... We got ourselves a great ball player.

    Also... Props to his defense in 2014. He's been much more engaged... In my opinion.

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    Senior Member All-Star Hosken Bombo Disco's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post

    Also... Props to his defense in 2014. He's been much more engaged... In my opinion.
    You are right. Other than that one game, he's been doing a pretty good job in the field.

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    Riverbrian (05-12-2014)

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    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    The guy is hitting .239 with an ops of .706 and we want to give the guy a parade?

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    Halsey Hall (05-12-2014)

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    Senior Member All-Star
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
    The guy is hitting .239 with an ops of .706 and we want to give the guy a parade?
    It was really weird timing for this article. May as well ask if Colabello's hot start will last now? Or Kubel's? Or Gibson's?

    That said, I am not too worried about Plouffe. Looks like he could be a .700 OPS player even without the HR binges, that's probably a little under recent average for 3B but not too bad, and his defense looks average/acceptable. He's not a #3 hitter, of course.

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    Owner All-Star Parker Hageman's Avatar
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    Guys -- The beginning was explaining the fast start, the last two paragraphs explain the production drop. Read from beginning to end please.

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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Parker Hageman View Post
    Guys -- The beginning was explaining the fast start, the last two paragraphs explain the production drop. Read from beginning to end please.
    Don't we wish everyone would read past just what they want to read? Nice article.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Parker Hageman View Post
    Guys -- The beginning was explaining the fast start, the last two paragraphs explain the production drop. Read from beginning to end please.
    Parker, I did read the article fully. Your final paragraph conclusion that "he is almost certain to see his numbers fall" is still pretty odd, since his numbers had already fallen by the time you published this. (I am guessing you started researching/writing this a week or so earlier, when his OPS was closer to .900 than .700!)

    And you have to admit the title of the article likewise doesn't make much sense, given that the production drop was already there -- his hot streak can't "last" or "continue" if it's already over!

    But, that's mostly nit-picking. Definitely appreciate your research and analysis -- you really offer an in-depth look at the Twins that isn't available from other writers, even here at Twins Daily.

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    Owner All-Star Parker Hageman's Avatar
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    Your final paragraph conclusion that "he is almost certain to see his numbers fall" is still pretty odd, since his numbers had already fallen by the time you published this.
    Pretty odd or pretty spot on? He was at 769 OPS at the time of research and has gone 0-for-12. Numbers fell.

    ~ Sincerely, the prognosticator of prognosticators.

    And you have to admit the title of the article likewise doesn't make much sense, given that the production drop was already there -- his hot streak can't "last" or "continue" if it's already over!
    At the time, he was in the middle of a speed bump -- after all, when research began he had just come off a 5-for-17 stretch with 3 doubles. Now, of course, he's in the middle of an 0-for-20 stretch so it looking considerably worse. Much of what we are seeing is due to the things pointed out in the final two paragraphs -- teams adjusted, he hasn't adjusted.

    I'm biased of course, but it is more relevant than ever.

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    Owner All-Star Parker Hageman's Avatar
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    @spycake -- To be clear, I understand what you are saying.

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