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Thread: Kubel's Increasing K-Rate

  1. #1
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    Kubel's Increasing K-Rate

    Jason Kubel has enough plate appearances to pass the sample size threshold for strike out rate and walk rate.

    K-Rate BB-Rate
    2011 MIN 21.4% 8.0%
    2012 ARI 26.4% 10.0%
    2013 ARI/CLE 31.7% 10.0%
    2014 MIN (through 5/9/14) 34.1% 9.3%

    When signed this winter, it was reasonable to believe that last year's struggles were related to injury. Is it still reasonable?

  2. #2
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    Distressing. I thought perhaps it was because he had faced so many left handed pitchers, but he's actually fanned more often versus right handers. Not promising.

  3. #3
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Legs.

    How much does Kubel's increasing play in the field contribute to his declining value at the plate?

    I'm not good at manipulating the stats but it sure seems like he's been in the field a lot more recently than he was the first couple weeks of the season.


    Edit:
    Okay, I found something on BRef that makes it look like he has played 29 games out of 32 in the OF (26 in LF and 3 in RF) -- so he has actually been on the field a lot more than I thought.

    I still wonder if part of his problem is that his legs need a break.


    Edit 2: And it looks like he will get a break today at least. Nunez in left and Mauer at DH.
    Last edited by JB_Iowa; 05-10-2014 at 10:53 AM.

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    At this point, would anyone be on board with Kubel being the guy to go when both Arcia and Willingham return? If Parmalee keeps his head above water this time around you have to think he won't clear waivers. I'm hoping when Arcia returns Gardy uses an outfield of Arcia Hicks Parmalee with a DH platoon (of sorts) of Colabello and Kubel.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    Kubel is definitely slumping after his hot start. So is Colabello, Plouffe, and Pinto. When Willingham and Arcia return it will be interesting to see how the playing time gets divvied up.


    1B Mauer, Parmelee, Colabello
    LF Willingham, Kubel
    RF Arcia, Parmelee, Colabello, Kubel
    DH Colabello, Kubel, Pinto, Parmelee

    I don't think they will release Kubel (though I admit it is still possible) but he could see less playing time. We will have to send 1 player out though if no one is injured. Likely Colabello or Arcia since they both have options or Parmelee if he really is terrible. We will have to go back to 12 pitchers though.

    2B Dozier
    1B Mauer
    3B Plouffe
    LF Willingham
    DH Colabello
    RF Arcia
    C Suzuki
    CF Hicks
    SS Escobar
    bench Parmelee, Kubel, Pinto, Fuld, Santana = (1 too many on the bench)
    Last edited by Brandon; 05-10-2014 at 11:13 AM.

  6. #6
    Kubel is what I call a stuborn hitter. He tries to pull everything. That's why he pulls his head and is a fish for the outside strike. Cola started trying to pull everything as well, which not surprisingly concided with his slump. There is a danger when you have a hot streak. You stop going with what worked and start trying to hit everything out of the park. Almost always this results in pulling your head and pulling the bat away from pitches out over the plate.
    Last edited by Kelly Vance; 05-10-2014 at 11:25 AM.

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    I remember in spring training, he was striking out a ton as well and that was against some inferior pitchers. So I'm not really surprised.

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    Senior Member All-Star Hosken Bombo Disco's Avatar
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    I wasn't exactly in favor of bringing Kubel aboard but I'm pulling for him.

    He did say he had a lot of baseball left in him, so I'm not completely buying the weak legs excuse that I'm starting to hear. We're only in May! I do think he should get the occasional day off though.

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    Senior Member All-Star crarko's Avatar
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    It might be instructive to normalize the data vs. league averages over the same time frame. It seems like strikeouts have been climbing across the board, and the variance between Kubel's rate and everybody else's might be useful. It also might not, but looking at numbers in a vacuum isn't going to tell the whole story. It might even be worse than it looks. Or it might just reflect a trend.
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    League average K rates, '11 through '14:

    2011: 18.6
    2012: 19.8
    2013: 19.9
    2014: 20.5

  12. #11
    Senior Member Double-A chuchadoro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks View Post
    League average K rates, '11 through '14:

    2011: 18.6
    2012: 19.8
    2013: 19.9
    2014: 20.5
    Kubel's K rate has increased at roughly 6X the rate of the league average. I think that answers crarko's question.
    He's a No Limit Dozier, I thought I told ya!

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    Senior Member All-Star crarko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuchadoro View Post
    Kubel's K rate has increased at roughly 6X the rate of the league average. I think that answers crarko's question.
    It looks like retiring and becoming an umpire is a realistic possibility.
    Oh, I'm a lumberjack, and I'm okay,
    I sleep all night and I work all day.

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    I think I would need to take out pitcher strike outs in the NL so I did check AL numbers in 2011 and 2014. They have increased from 18% to 19.7%. Kubel 21.4% to 34.1%.

    I do not think lasts year's abysmal performance can be written off to injury. Kubel's skill has changed.

  17. #14
    Just saw Cola strike out looking on an outside pitch after trying to pull a pitch on the outside corner (strike 2). I wonder if he needs glasses

  18. #15
    Senior Member All-Star Sconnie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by crarko View Post
    It looks like retiring and becoming an umpire is a realistic possibility.
    because he can't see anymore?

  19. #16
    Senior Member All-Star crarko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sconnie View Post
    because he can't see anymore?
    Yes, it could be an ocular motor dysfunction.
    Oh, I'm a lumberjack, and I'm okay,
    I sleep all night and I work all day.

  20. #17
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    File this under "not surprisingly".

  21. #18
    Senior Member All-Star Hosken Bombo Disco's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by crarko View Post
    Yes, it could be an ocular motor dysfunction.
    For a moment I thought you were blaming Kubel's strikeouts on the umpires but now I realize you are diagnosing a medical condition instead

  22. #19
    Senior Member All-Star crarko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hosken Bombo Disco View Post
    For a moment I thought you were blaming Kubel's strikeouts on the umpires but now I realize you are diagnosing a medical condition instead
    Diagnose? No, merely suggest. I have a similar affliction, which manifests whenever picking up a bat.
    Oh, I'm a lumberjack, and I'm okay,
    I sleep all night and I work all day.

  23. #20
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kelly Vance View Post
    Kubel is what I call a stuborn hitter. He tries to pull everything.
    Ted Williams had the same problem.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

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