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Thread: Pirates Prospects: Worley Back on Track

  1. #41
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    If you hold someone accountable for bad pitching performances by releasing him, maybe he learns from that and does better someplace else. My beef with the Twins is how often they ran Pelfrey out there before replacing him with Deduno. Worley turned out to be a mistake and they cut him loose. Good riddance, I say.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Probably, let's see how it goes. The issue I take with this is that Worley wouldn't be the first clear failure by Anderson, it would just be one more in a growing list. Hughes might be one of the first true starter successes in a long while.
    And to be clear, the success bar for Hughes should be his ERA sans new Yankee stadium. I believe his career ERA is something like 4.10 out of that stadium. I could see Dick and Bert and the PR machine giving Anderson a ton of credit for getting Hughes ERA into this range.

    If you compile a list of guys that have had more success after they left versus before they got here, the after they left is ahead by a mile. And Cueller should get the Johan credit.

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  4. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Whether or not Anderson/the Twins could fix Worley is one issue. And that to me is a different debate.

    Whether or not there was room for him was another. To me, that's the bigger issue here. You have a conflation of events that forced a scenery change. The Twins went and signed Pelfrey, Hughes, and Nolasco, thus eliminating 3 starting spots with KC occupying the 4th. Worley was out of options, meaning he had to be DFAd to go to the minors or have a job in the big leagues, and quite frankly, he pitched his way out of that job. I'm not exactly sure what "chance" he was hoping for, because there would have been quite the uproar had he gotten the job over Gibson who clearly earned it, and even though he's been lucky, has done quite well.

    My honest opinion was that the 5th spot was going to be Worley's unless he laid a major egg, and that's exactly what he did. Perhaps there was more too it, but any consternation over losing Worley is revisionist history unless that person was screaming in outrage over the Twins FA signings this last offseason. I don't remember very many people being upset about that.
    The Pelfrey signing did not go over well, for obvious reasons. But had we not signed Pelfrey and left that #5 spot for Worley, I would have been beyond irate. These comment boards would have featured a lot of "moderator note", settle down everyone.

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  6. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    If you compile a list of guys that have had more success after they left versus before they got here, the after they left is ahead by a mile. And Cueller should get the Johan credit.
    Pretty sure the first part is not true.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Pretty sure the first part is not true.
    Here is a list of pitchers that have left since 2005 and had more success. I added Worley, who had the success prior to coming here as that is who the conversation started with.

    I also gave the benefit of the doubt on a few. Matt Garza had a 4.47 ERA here and has a career 3.88 ERA, but he was young here. Slowey's ERA is 20 basis points lower with the Marlins, etc.

    If we looked at the list of guys who had better luck before they came here the list would obviously grow. Is Anderson to blame for every one of these? No, but his iron clad reputation does not have actual numbers supporting it.

    RA Dickey 4.62 ERA as a Twin, 2.95 with the Mets and 4.30 with the Blue Jays
    Kyle Lohse 4.88 ERA as a Twin, 3.90 in STL and 3.23 with the Brewers.
    Vance Worley 7.21 ERA as a Twin, 3.50 with the Phillies.
    Grant Balfour 4.63 ERA as a Twin, 3.44 with TB and 2.53 with Oakland
    Jesse Crain 3.42 ERA as a Twin, 2.10 ERA with the White Sox
    Pat Neshek 3.05 ERA with the Twins, terrible in the two years after injury. 2.70 ERA with Oakland and 1.08 ERA with STL
    Francisco Liriano 4.33 ERA with the Twins, worse after his injury, 3.36 ERA with Pitt
    Luis Ayala 4.18 ERA with the Twins, 2.81 with Baltimore, 2.90 ERA with STL

    I would be interested in a list of pitchers who had better success with the Twins than nose dived after they left. Not all Andersons fault, but certainly a data point when evaluating a pitching coach
    Last edited by tobi0040; 05-13-2014 at 01:13 PM.

  8. #46
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post

    RA Dickey 4.62 ERA as a Twin, 2.95 with the Mets and 4.30 with the Blue Jays
    Kyle Lohse 4.88 ERA as a Twin, 3.90 in STL and 3.23 with the Brewers.
    Vance Worley 7.21 ERA as a Twin, 3.50 with the Phillies.
    Grant Balfour 4.63 ERA as a Twin, 3.44 with TB and 2.53 with Oakland
    Jesse Crain 3.42 ERA as a Twin, 2.10 ERA with the White Sox
    Pat Neshek 3.05 ERA with the Twins, terrible in the two years after injury. 2.70 ERA with Oakland and 1.08 ERA with STL
    Francisco Liriano 4.33 ERA with the Twins, worse after his injury, 3.36 ERA with Pitt
    Luis Ayala 4.18 ERA with the Twins, 2.81 with Baltimore, 2.90 ERA with STL
    While there is some truth to pitcher success after leaving the Twins, this list is pretty badly constructed and is omitting a lot of details.

    RA Dickey - Okay, he had success with the Mets. We get that. He also suddenly refined a knuckle, much to the Mets' surprise. It's not as if the pitching coach taught him something magical... All claims to Dickey's sudden dominance are laid at Dickey's own feet.

    Kyle Lohse - They gave up on him too soon but Anderson got some good seasons out of him and you're not adjusting for league or time frame during a period of general offensive decline. Those numbers look a lot worse than what actually happened with Kyle.

    Vance Worley - Why is he even on this list?

    Grant Balfour - The Twins let him go because he was injured. No other reason.

    Jesse Crain - He had a fantastic final season with the Twins as he matured into his stuff. He left for pay concerns and continued posting similar numbers for the White Sox, though slightly better.

    Pat Neshek - Again, injury concerns and he was pretty awful for quite some time. Good to see him back up and I didn't want the Twins to release him in the first place.

    Francisco Liriano - Ugly decision last year, for sure... But then again, he's not very good so far this season. Time will tell whether 2013 was for real or just Liriano being a human yo-yo again.

    Luis Ayala - He got better later on but to be fair, his one season with the Twins was the best season he had in three years.

  9. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Here is a list of pitchers that have left since 2005 and had more success. I added Worley, who had the success prior to coming here as that is who the conversation started with.

    I also gave the benefit of the doubt on a few. Matt Garza had a 4.47 ERA here and has a career 3.88 ERA, but he was young here. Slowey's ERA is 20 basis points lower with the Marlins, etc.

    If we looked at the list of guys who had better luck before they came here the list would obviously grow. Is Anderson to blame for every one of these? No, but his iron clad reputation does not have actual numbers supporting it.

    RA Dickey 4.62 ERA as a Twin, 2.95 with the Mets and 4.30 with the Blue Jays
    Kyle Lohse 4.88 ERA as a Twin, 3.90 in STL and 3.23 with the Brewers.
    Vance Worley 7.21 ERA as a Twin, 3.50 with the Phillies.
    Grant Balfour 4.63 ERA as a Twin, 3.44 with TB and 2.53 with Oakland
    Jesse Crain 3.42 ERA as a Twin, 2.10 ERA with the White Sox
    Pat Neshek 3.05 ERA with the Twins, terrible in the two years after injury. 2.70 ERA with Oakland and 1.08 ERA with STL
    Francisco Liriano 4.33 ERA with the Twins, worse after his injury, 3.36 ERA with Pitt
    Luis Ayala 4.18 ERA with the Twins, 2.81 with Baltimore, 2.90 ERA with STL

    I would be interested in a list of pitchers who had better success with the Twins than nose dived after they left. Not all Andersons fault, but certainly a data point when evaluating a pitching coach

    I'm not even a Anderson fan but this seems nit picking. I also don't think Anderson has an ironclad reputation. He has plenty of critics...some of which is well deserved.

    Lohse definitely pitched better after he left. I think he had issues with Anderson & Gardy that caused problems. You can blame either side for that I guess.

    Neshek pitched great until he blew out his arm. Since then he's been released several times & pitched limited innings. I guess Oakland didn't even think enough of him to put him on their playoff roster last year. They also thought so little of him they let him go this off season.

    Galfour had decent success for the Twins & I think would have really good but he also blew out his arm. That happens. I don't think you can blame Anderson for that or the fact that 6 years later Balfour finally became successful.

    Ayala?? The guy pitched a total of 32 innings his whole Twins career. His ERA was 4.18, which was better than the 5.71 he put up the year before. He's really irrelevant.

    Crain was pretty good here. The Twins spent time developing him & he cashed in.

    Pitchers that nose dived after they left? Carlos Silva sure did. Juan Rincon , Dennys Reyes.

    I actually don't care for Anderson that much, mostly because of the "pitch to contact" philosophy but he can't be blamed for Worley's problems. Maybe Worley wasn't fully recovered from his surgery but his stuff didn't look good & I don't know how you can coach that kind of stuff to succeed. I'd be really surprised if he ever is a successful ML pitcher again. He might be a back of the rotation filler some day...but we already have plenty of those types .

  10. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Here is a list of pitchers that have left since 2005 and had more success. I added Worley, who had the success prior to coming here as that is who the conversation started with.

    I also gave the benefit of the doubt on a few. Matt Garza had a 4.47 ERA here and has a career 3.88 ERA, but he was young here. Slowey's ERA is 20 basis points lower with the Marlins, etc.

    If we looked at the list of guys who had better luck before they came here the list would obviously grow. Is Anderson to blame for every one of these? No, but his iron clad reputation does not have actual numbers supporting it.

    RA Dickey 4.62 ERA as a Twin, 2.95 with the Mets and 4.30 with the Blue Jays
    Kyle Lohse 4.88 ERA as a Twin, 3.90 in STL and 3.23 with the Brewers.
    Vance Worley 7.21 ERA as a Twin, 3.50 with the Phillies.
    Grant Balfour 4.63 ERA as a Twin, 3.44 with TB and 2.53 with Oakland
    Jesse Crain 3.42 ERA as a Twin, 2.10 ERA with the White Sox
    Pat Neshek 3.05 ERA with the Twins, terrible in the two years after injury. 2.70 ERA with Oakland and 1.08 ERA with STL
    Francisco Liriano 4.33 ERA with the Twins, worse after his injury, 3.36 ERA with Pitt
    Luis Ayala 4.18 ERA with the Twins, 2.81 with Baltimore, 2.90 ERA with STL

    I would be interested in a list of pitchers who had better success with the Twins than nose dived after they left. Not all Andersons fault, but certainly a data point when evaluating a pitching coach
    Slowey's era+ is 87 with the Marlins vs 90 with the Twins.

  11. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    While there is some truth to pitcher success after leaving the Twins, this list is pretty badly constructed and is omitting a lot of details.

    RA Dickey - Okay, he had success with the Mets. We get that. He also suddenly refined a knuckle, much to the Mets' surprise. It's not as if the pitching coach taught him something magical... All claims to Dickey's sudden dominance are laid at Dickey's own feet.

    Kyle Lohse - They gave up on him too soon but Anderson got some good seasons out of him and you're not adjusting for league or time frame during a period of general offensive decline. Those numbers look a lot worse than what actually happened with Kyle.

    Vance Worley - Why is he even on this list?

    Grant Balfour - The Twins let him go because he was injured. No other reason.

    Jesse Crain - He had a fantastic final season with the Twins as he matured into his stuff. He left for pay concerns and continued posting similar numbers for the White Sox, though slightly better.

    Pat Neshek - Again, injury concerns and he was pretty awful for quite some time. Good to see him back up and I didn't want the Twins to release him in the first place.

    Francisco Liriano - Ugly decision last year, for sure... But then again, he's not very good so far this season. Time will tell whether 2013 was for real or just Liriano being a human yo-yo again.

    Luis Ayala - He got better later on but to be fair, his one season with the Twins was the best season he had in three years.
    Crain's ERA is 1.20 points better in Chicago than here. That is not "slightly better".

    Neshek - Two years after his injury he was terrible here and he has been lights out.

    Lohse - AL NL maybe, but that does not explain a 4.88 to 3.90 and 3.23. And his last year or so here he was awful.

    My point is, we can explain this or that. But I see a disconnect between Anderson's reputation and the sucess pre and post Twins. I don't think we can construct a list this long of guys that had more success when they got here over this same time frame. Certainly not one with 3 starters on it. Not all his fault, but certainly a data point.

  12. #50
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Crain's ERA is 1.20 points better in Chicago than here. That is not "slightly better".

    Neshek - Two years after his injury he was terrible here and he has been lights out.

    Lohse - AL NL maybe, but that does not explain a 4.88 to 3.90 and 3.23. And his last year or so here he was awful.

    My point is, we can explain this or that. But I see a disconnect between Anderson's reputation and the sucess pre and post Twins. I don't think we can construct a list this long of guys that had more success when they got here over this same time frame. Certainly not one with 3 starters on it. Not all his fault, but certainly a data point.
    ERA is not a good metric for relievers. Crain was very good with the Twins in his last season with the team. He was slightly better with the White Sox. It's not an enormous gulf and Anderson got good results from him before he left for free agency.

    I agree that some pitchers have had better results after leaving the team but it's not a cut-and-dry situation... not even close. For every Kyle Lohse, there is a Carlos Silva or Eric Milton.

  13. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Here is a list of pitchers that have left since 2005 and had more success. I added Worley, who had the success prior to coming here as that is who the conversation started with.

    I also gave the benefit of the doubt on a few. Matt Garza had a 4.47 ERA here and has a career 3.88 ERA, but he was young here. Slowey's ERA is 20 basis points lower with the Marlins, etc.

    If we looked at the list of guys who had better luck before they came here the list would obviously grow. Is Anderson to blame for every one of these? No, but his iron clad reputation does not have actual numbers supporting it.

    RA Dickey 4.62 ERA as a Twin, 2.95 with the Mets and 4.30 with the Blue Jays
    Kyle Lohse 4.88 ERA as a Twin, 3.90 in STL and 3.23 with the Brewers.
    Vance Worley 7.21 ERA as a Twin, 3.50 with the Phillies.
    Grant Balfour 4.63 ERA as a Twin, 3.44 with TB and 2.53 with Oakland
    Jesse Crain 3.42 ERA as a Twin, 2.10 ERA with the White Sox
    Pat Neshek 3.05 ERA with the Twins, terrible in the two years after injury. 2.70 ERA with Oakland and 1.08 ERA with STL
    Francisco Liriano 4.33 ERA with the Twins, worse after his injury, 3.36 ERA with Pitt
    Luis Ayala 4.18 ERA with the Twins, 2.81 with Baltimore, 2.90 ERA with STL

    I would be interested in a list of pitchers who had better success with the Twins than nose dived after they left. Not all Andersons fault, but certainly a data point when evaluating a pitching coach
    There's a lot wrong with this which makes it hard to get a handle on. First, using one rate stat without context tells us nothing. For instance, Lohse played 6 of his 14 seasons with us but two of them were half seasons (rookie year and traded year). 3 of his other 4 seasons are among his 6 best seasons by WAR. Neshek's era looks nice in Oakland but by WAR, his best seasons were in MN and it wasn't particularly close.

    A lot of pitchers got too rich for the Twins and left, either as FA or by trade before hand. Most of them had their best days in MN - Silva, Santana, Milton, Reyes, Nathan, Guerrier, Hawkins, Everyday Eddie, Romero, Baker. The Twins had a number of pitchers pitch better once they got here - Pavano, Silva, Nathan, Guerrier, Fein, Burton, Reyes, Correia. And then of course there was Slowey, who got cut b/c he was too smart for the Twins. And he sucked in Miami.

    I think only a few pitchers can arguably be said to pitch better after they left but it's not absolute. Garza was going to be a good pitcher and we traded him away. Lohse, as mentioned, happened to have some pretty good seasons with us before embarking on a long career. And Liriano had one good year in Pit but is back to his old tricks again. Maybe a few others - Balfour certainly but he was an injury cut.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Who are the other failures?
    Garza pitched well when he was here.
    Loshe pitched pretty well when he was here.
    Dickey...knuckleballer
    Liriano- Is who we always knew he was (even if people like me didn't want to admit)
    Worley- Let's see him actually produce before we start jumping off bridges.
    Here. This is pretty analytical but couple years old. Looooooooooooong list.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Luis Ayala - He got better later on but to be fair, his one season with the Twins was the best season he had in three years.
    And do you remember exactly what the Twins did to him? The same thing they did to Craig Breslow...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Here. This is pretty analytical but couple years old. Looooooooooooong list.
    That list is hilarious. You have basically made an argument that very few pitchers succeed after leaving the Twins. In some cases you have cherry picked numbers and shown success in small sample sizes.

    Ayala - pitched himself out of the majors after leaving the Twins. Came back a few years later and was good in mopup time
    Eyre - is this a joke?
    Livan
    Cressend (58IP with CLE)
    Fultz - are you implying that the Twins should have stuck with a 31 yr old pitcher with no MLB success?
    Humber - less than 200 effective IP before being one of the starters in baseball
    Lincoln - 112IP before turning into a pumpkin
    Mijares - 38 effective innings with KC
    Redman - K rate plummeted and had one good season with FLA before sucking
    Romero - you left out his Angels stint where he was so ineffective that he was dumped
    Thomas - never was effective

    Beimel - nice career. I'm not going to fault anyone for cutting an 88mph LOOGY after 1.2IP
    Breslow - was a strange cut but I'm not sure that was Anderson's fault. He was effective here.
    Hawkins - cherry picked stat since he was basically the same after he left.
    Garza - 130 innings at the beginning of his career. Most people would expect him to get better
    Dickey - Yes, he everybody knew that a 35ish yr old knuckleballer was going to turn into Cy Young
    Lohse - He didn't become a good pitcher until the 6th season after leaving MN
    Balfour - clearly Anderson's fault that he was always injured as a Twin. Took him 5 years to become good.
    Crain - was pretty good as a Twins aside from an injured season and a season where the wheels fell off.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    That list is hilarious. You have basically made an argument that very few pitchers succeed after leaving the Twins. In some cases you have cherry picked numbers and shown success in small sample sizes.

    Ayala - pitched himself out of the majors after leaving the Twins. Came back a few years later and was good in mopup time
    Eyre - is this a joke?
    Livan
    Cressend (58IP with CLE)
    Fultz - are you implying that the Twins should have stuck with a 31 yr old pitcher with no MLB success?
    Humber - less than 200 effective IP before being one of the starters in baseball
    Lincoln - 112IP before turning into a pumpkin
    Mijares - 38 effective innings with KC
    Redman - K rate plummeted and had one good season with FLA before sucking
    Romero - you left out his Angels stint where he was so ineffective that he was dumped
    Thomas - never was effective

    Beimel - nice career. I'm not going to fault anyone for cutting an 88mph LOOGY after 1.2IP
    Breslow - was a strange cut but I'm not sure that was Anderson's fault. He was effective here.
    Hawkins - cherry picked stat since he was basically the same after he left.
    Garza - 130 innings at the beginning of his career. Most people would expect him to get better
    Dickey - Yes, he everybody knew that a 35ish yr old knuckleballer was going to turn into Cy Young
    Lohse - He didn't become a good pitcher until the 6th season after leaving MN
    Balfour - clearly Anderson's fault that he was always injured as a Twin. Took him 5 years to become good.
    Crain - was pretty good as a Twins aside from an injured season and a season where the wheels fell off.
    I gave quantitative facts, you are giving opinions, like all the excuses I've heard about keeping Anderson (and Gardenhire.) Are there any numbers to support Anderson at this point?

    I am all ears.
    Last edited by Thrylos; 05-13-2014 at 08:12 PM.
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    My opinion is that you are misusing stats to show success. Almost all of your cases against Anderson don't actually show much sustained success after leaving the Twins.

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    I'm sorry, but I just don't get, and never have gotten, all the Anderson bashing. Have I had issues with he and Gardy both? Absolutely!

    But I just don't get the bashing. Have a few guys done better after leaving the Twins? Yes, for at least a season. But in many or most of the examples listed here, there was another team and season or two before this took place. Liriano as an example? I and all Twins fans groaned with what happened last season. But not only was it seemingly a 1 year fluke, but his early success was with Anderson. As was his one teasing year after surgery. Further, there was another team between us and the Pirates who grew frustrated with Liriano in the White Sox.

    Burton found new life. Fien found life. Perkins is an all-star closer. Swarzak has developed in to an extended and reliable relief pitcher. Deduno is an enigmatic arm who's best success has been with the Twins. Hughes just might be pitching the best he's ever pitched. Kevin Fricking-Correia probably threw the best ever in his career during a misserable 2013 season with the Twins. Pavano found new life with the Twins.

    Im not saying he's the greatest pitching coach that has ever existed, but when the Twins had actual SP talent and were winning divisional titles with Santana and Radke and others, are you saying someone else was in charge?

    With little exception over the past several seasons, the Twins bullpen has been very solid. And the arms there haven't always been Twins prospects. There have been valuable contributions over the years from discards and retreads and can't-get-its.

    The SP options the past few seasons have been greatly lacking in quality. And this is Anderson's fault? And the past couple of weeks the Twins SP have an ERA under 4 and a 2-1 SO to BB ratio, showing real signs of heating things up and improving, hopefully turning a corner and this in spite of Anderson?

    Bruno and the Twins hitters receive accolades for BB and playing moneyball with increased production. The Twins staff has consistently been amongst the most stingy in offering free passes but this is a negative in some way?

    Again, not saying Anderson is the greatest, I just really don't understand all the negativity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    I gave quantitative facts, you are giving opinions, like all the excuses I've heard about keeping Anderson (and Gardenhire.) Are there any numbers to support Anderson at this point?

    I am all ears.
    That is a long list. Years after a pitcher leaves the Twins, he gets better. That is on Anderson?
    A pitcher who was a starter for the Twins and is relugated to the bullpen, statistically there is an improvement but it is a different and far less valuable role. The issue is that Anderson has not developed starters. That a guy goes on to be a serviceable mop up person is really no big deal.
    Redman was exchanged for the closer they thought they needed. You have to give up something to get something. Tha the Twins traded him away counts against Anderson. Do you need a list of pitchers that it took 2 years of service tim before they got better?

    There are factors that go into a player improving including age related devlopment. Is the player development because they learn the more years they are in the league, park factors, or whatever. No, the sole factor is the pitching coach. Yup Show me someone the Twins released or did not resign for reasons other than money that went from mediocre Twin to stud performance in the next season.

  21. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    Again, not saying Anderson is the greatest, I just really don't understand all the negativity.
    Doc, the source of much of the negativity/criticism comes from the inexplicably poor playoff performances when we did have great teams, and more recently from the 90+ loss seasons. The fact that you could almost literally field a team of ex-Twin All Stars and MVPs does not help.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hosken Bombo Disco View Post
    Doc, the source of much of the negativity/criticism comes from the inexplicably poor playoff performances when we did have great teams, and more recently from the 90+ loss seasons. The fact that you could almost literally field a team of ex-Twin All Stars and MVPs does not help.
    I would be pleased to know what former Twins All Star pitcher, (not Lohse who was never an all star or an award recipient) would you want to be staring given their performance so far this year.
    If you meant any Twin All Star I would ask
    Are any of the former Twins who were all stars as Twins at 2b, 3b, or ss still alive much less playing baseball? Catcher, AJ. 1b, Morneau, DH Ortiz, OF Cuddy, Hunter. Four players on the field, a quite a few bullpen arms. Yup, almost a team.

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