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Thread: Article: The Rising Cost of Brian Dozier

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    My point is that you don't write off a player five years ahead of time. I don't believe it's in the team's best interests to sign him to an extension right now but I'm not writing off the possibility of doing it, either. Dozier is showing the kind of discipline and power that doesn't typically evaporate once a player reaches 30. If he continues to hit for the next 12-14 months, extending him might not be a bad idea.

    I agree completely. If he continues to hit for the rest of the season, then you revisit the idea of an extension in the offseason, otherwise he could get somewhat expensive as you get into arbitration.

  2. #62
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    I think we're all aware of aging curves, but aging curves alone don't tell you to never sign contracts covering age 31-32 seasons. They suggest not signing contracts BEYOND those seasons more than anything else, especially for players who don't have a lot of room to decline and still be useful.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    My point is that you don't write off a player five years ahead of time. I don't believe it's in the team's best interests to sign him to an extension right now but I'm not writing off the possibility of doing it, either. Dozier is showing the kind of discipline and power that doesn't typically evaporate once a player reaches 30. If he continues to hit for the next 12-14 months, extending him might not be a bad idea.
    I'm not "writing him off." The topic is how to approach Dozier from a contract standpoint. It's an economic question - since the Twins have limited resources, the allocation of those resources needs to be as efficient as possible for the club to compete. They can't afford to throw millions at players just to be nice.

    The Twins are the ones that have Dozier under team control through his prime. If he wants an extension, that's fine - he has no leverage and the contract should reflect that. But my guess is that his agent doesn't want that deal - his job is to try and get the Twins to overpay.

    Four years, $16 million guaranteed, and a team-friendly option? OK. Five years, $35 million? Obviously not.

  4. #64
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    The key question might be: what kind of player is Dozier? He looked solid last year, and in the early going this year, he looks like a star (at least, outside his AVG). But it's probably too early to tell if he is or ever will be a star, given his track record.

    Span's deal would actually be pretty nice. 5 years, $16.5 mil, covering two pre-arb seasons and 3 arb seasons guaranteed, with a $9 mil team option for the first free agency season. Scale that up for the intervening 4 years of baseball inflation and it seems like it could be appropriate for Dozier right now. They even have somewhat comparable track records (decent pedigrees but not top prospects, some struggles in the minors and/or early MLB).

    The tricky part may be that, at that time, Span had almost 2 seasons under his belt at a 4+ WAR per season pace and 117 OPS+. (Turns out they were his 2 best seasons at the plate, unfortunately!) Thanks to his slow start in MLB, Dozier only has about 1 season at that level. By the time he finishes 2014, he could have a more comparable track record, but he will also be one year closer to arb and free agency, which should bump up his contract by comparison. (Also, obviously, he could finish 2014 pretty strong and get a bump too.)

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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    Four years, $16 million guaranteed, and a team-friendly option? OK. Five years, $35 million? Obviously not.
    I actually agree, but you don't even need aging curves to back it up. Just that, hot start 2014 notwithstanding, Dozier doesn't project as a superstar, which he would almost have to be to earn over $35 mil in the next 5 years.

    His projected performance, and thus salaries and cost containment potential, appear to be much more modest, more comparable to Span than to, say, Kipnis or Gyorko (although admittedly, both of those guys are pushing that "star potential" boundary down).

    I would hope his agent would be receptive to something in the neighborhood of 5/20 (my guess for Span's deal adjusted for baseball inflation, or 4/20 if you start it in 2015). Dozier still has almost two seasons of making peanuts before he's even arb-eligible, and he still has fair amount of downside potential (his June 2013 change reverting, losing even more AVG down to Uggla territory, etc.). His profile suggests looking for some guaranteed millions now rather than maximizing career earnings down the road.

  6. #66
    Senior Member Double-A Jdosen's Avatar
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    Dozier Extension? Not so fast

    I, like everyone, love Brian Dozier. From last June on, he's been a very good player. This year, he's been great, and if this performance is sustainable, he has shown that he can be a fixture at 2B for the next 4-5 years. That's all great.

    Many people on here and on twitter feel that the Twins should attempt to extend Dozier and give him a deal that's in the Jed Gyorko range of 5 years $30M. I think in doing this, the Twins would be outsmarting themselves. In my mind, Dozier is the quintessential year-to-year player. He turned 27 years old today, but will not have accumulated 2 years of service time after this year. He is not arbitration-eligible until 2016, and won't hit free agency until 2019, when he will be 32.

    The guys you lock up are guys that you think will command high arbitration prices and hundreds of millions of dollars in free agency. You lock up an Evan Longoria, a Mike Trout, etc; guys who will hit free agency while in theory hitting their primes. Brian Dozier is a good player, but not in that caliber. If he does end up making a lot of money in arbitration, that's fine. The Twins can afford it. But if aging curves tell us anything, at 32 when he hits free agency, his best years will be behind him, and any contract he receives will be an inefficiency. I love Dozier, but I think we should wait and see before giving him a wheel barrel full of cash.
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  7. #67
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    If you can save money for an extension and buy out a year or two more, that's a reason to extend him. If he expects a contract closer to the 50 million the other 2 2B signed (Cleveland's and St Louis) then go year to year but the 30-35million + option year or 2 why not?

  8. #68
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    Offensively and defensively, Dozier is proving he is no fluke. The BA still isn't where it needs to be, and probably will be, but you simply can't argue with any other number he's been producing since June of last year, or the consistency, or the defense to go along with it.

    I don't want to mess with him, but a SS his whole life, I'm still not opposed to a potential move or try-out there if Rosario or Polanco (unable to prove himself at SS) proves to be a quality ML 2B. But I revel in the player we have with Dozier at 2B. I am NOT opposed to signing him to a longer deal to lock him in. And I don't feel he's going to regress or fall off the edge of the earth. I just think we have enough control over him the next couple of seasons that I'd play it that way, fair raises to avoid the arbitration process, and then sign him long term around '17 or so.

  9. #69
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    I think/hope the Twins approach Dozier after midseason callups about an extension. Show an example for the kids - if you produce, you will get paid, sooner than later.

  10. #70
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    The kids will also see the large arbitration awards that follow very good seasons.

    I really hope this doesn't impact the performance of any young player, but a contract signing is seen once. In this case long term pay paid for performance over a short term. Arbitration would be seen 3 or 4 times. In arbitration it would be annual pay based on annual performance.

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  12. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    So what? Why does this matter at all? Dozier either is, or is not, likely to be worth big bucks at age 32+. The correct answer is not likely. Possible, but not likely, and not worth tens of millions of dollars that could go elsewhere.
    First, the proposals discussed here wouldn't take him to "age 32+." Second, the proposals discussed here don't include "big bucks" in the financial landscape of Major League Baseball. Third, there's the possibility those "tens of millions of dollars" wouldn't go elsewhere, they would simply stay with ownership, or would be spent on two or three mediocre pitchers that do little to improve the team's W L record.

    And finally, it matters because if you want to win, having good players under contract is important. I think Dozier is, and is likely to stay, a good player over the next five years. He doesn't have to hit HRs at this pace to be a good player, either. He's good defensively, is easily the Twins best and smartest base runner, rarely makes a stupid decision, and is showing ability to work walks.
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  14. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    The kids will also see the large arbitration awards that follow very good seasons.

    I really hope this doesn't impact the performance of any young player, but a contract signing is seen once. In this case long term pay paid for performance over a short term. Arbitration would be seen 3 or 4 times. In arbitration it would be annual pay based on annual performance.
    As Mike Trout showed, his arbitration figure is hardly going to reflect his performance value. That's far from a factor in whether you extend him or not.

  15. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    First, the proposals discussed here wouldn't take him to "age 32+." Second, the proposals discussed here don't include "big bucks" in the financial landscape of Major League Baseball. Third, there's the possibility those "tens of millions of dollars" wouldn't go elsewhere, they would simply stay with ownership, or would be spent on two or three mediocre pitchers that do little to improve the team's W L record.

    And finally, it matters because if you want to win, having good players under contract is important. I think Dozier is, and is likely to stay, a good player over the next five years. He doesn't have to hit HRs at this pace to be a good player, either. He's good defensively, is easily the Twins best and smartest base runner, rarely makes a stupid decision, and is showing ability to work walks.
    1. False. Many people have commented on either buying or having options on free agent years, which would start at age 32.

    2. Irrelevant semantics. The issue is whether he would be worth the market rate based on his current production (which would be pretty high) years down the road.

    3. Irrelevant indictment of team management. The fact they could screw up on separate transactions has no bearing on any individual decision.

    4. Dozier is already under contract, per the reserve clause. He can't go anywhere. If he wants financial security, I'm fine with that too. I just don't see the point in paying him double what he is really worth, based on the mechanics of arbitration and his current age.

    The Twins cannot possibly compete if they follow that philosophy... they would run of money very quickly.

  16. #74
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    Both sides make good points. How would a Dozier extension affect the Meyer/Sano/Buxton beast, if at all?

  17. #75
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Just a nit to pick, but extending a player provides cost certainty. In the case of Dozier, an extension would be for less than what he'd make in arb if he continued playing the way he's playing right now. The Twins assume the risk of injury or if Dozier were to turn back into a pumpkin. The reason they wouldn't extend him is if they think he's getting lucky, think he's going to be a constant presence on the DL, or they think that he will suddenly get lazy.

    If they don't think that any of these will happen, then he should be extended, if for no other reason than to provide a contract that other teams will covet should Rosario start to push him. There's a time and a place to extend a guy, and this, to me is a really good case to do it.

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  19. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    As Mike Trout showed, his arbitration figure is hardly going to reflect his performance value. That's far from a factor in whether you extend him or not.
    I am not sure I get the a Trout comparison. He is much younger and has never received an arbitration award.

    The biggest factor has to be Dozier's age in the years the Twins are purchasing. Lots of players are very good at 27 and mediocre at 32. Another factor is the relatively short span of time of success. The Twins would be buying high by extending him now.

  20. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    I am not sure I get the a Trout comparison. He is much younger and has never received an arbitration award.

    The biggest factor has to be Dozier's age in the years the Twins are purchasing. Lots of players are very good at 27 and mediocre at 32. Another factor is the relatively short span of time of success. The Twins would be buying high by extending him now.
    The record for a first year was Ryan Howard at 10M (Morneau at 4.5M had been the previous high) and he got that for hitting 50 homeruns and driving in 140 runs. Dozier is looking at a couple million tops, which has really no bearing at all for the club in the immediate future.

    It would be seriously jumping the gun to lock him up out of fear that he hits well enough to earn 4-5M for next year.

  21. #78
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    The thing is, at this point, they may have waited too long... In spring training 6/25 may have made sense. At this point, he's looking at 6/40 or more...

    I he just had a very good year at the end of this season, he'd be looking at:

    2015 - $750,000
    2016 - $4 million
    2017 - $8 million
    2018 - $10 million
    2019 - Free Agent
    2020 - Free Agent

    4 years, $22.75 and then a free agent.

    I'd offer:

    2015 - $1 million
    2016 - $4 million
    2017 - $7 million
    2018 - $8 million
    2019 - $9 million
    2020 - $10 million
    2021 - $12 million option with $1 million buy out.

    So, that'd be 6 years, $40 million with an option year.

    I wonder if he'd take it.

  22. #79
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    IMO the question isn't "will Dozier turn into a pumpkin in his mid 30s." The question is, "will Dozier turn into a pumpkin during his arbitration years." I think the former is possible, maybe even likely. But Dozier is likely to continue producing through his arb years, I think. So by waiting, the Twins are setting themselves up to pay more dollars for years that are even more likely to be unproductive. Pay him now while the dollars and the risks are minimal. If he turns into a pumpkin on the back end, bfd.

  23. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    The thing is, at this point, they may have waited too long... In spring training 6/25 may have made sense. At this point, he's looking at 6/40 or more...

    I he just had a very good year at the end of this season, he'd be looking at:

    2015 - $750,000
    2016 - $4 million
    2017 - $8 million
    2018 - $10 million
    2019 - Free Agent
    2020 - Free Agent

    4 years, $22.75 and then a free agent.

    I'd offer:

    2015 - $1 million
    2016 - $4 million
    2017 - $7 million
    2018 - $8 million
    2019 - $9 million
    2020 - $10 million
    2021 - $12 million option with $1 million buy out.

    So, that'd be 6 years, $40 million with an option year.

    I wonder if he'd take it.
    The issue here is that with the first option the Twins have him until his age 31 season (inclusive) and with the second until his age 33 season. I'd go with door number 1, see what Rosario/Polanco/Goodrum and Co are doing around 2016 and hope he holds up so the Twins can trade him high (for a change.)

    Also I'd rather see that $22 M go towards Sano or Buxton in 2021...
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