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Thread: Article: The Rising Cost of Brian Dozier

  1. #1
    Twins Contributor Big-Leaguer Cody Christie's Avatar
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    Article: The Rising Cost of Brian Dozier


  2. #2
    The off-season or spring training seems like the right time to consider this. They'll have a better idea of whether Rosario or Polanco will push Dozier at 2B, depending on how Polanco's taking on more SS goes and how Rosario plays once he gets reinstated.

  3. #3
    Senior Member All-Star Hosken Bombo Disco's Avatar
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    Yep. Off season is the time to do it. I'm on board. Dozier doesn't seem like the greedy type but don't know if Wolfson mentioned who his agent is.

  4. #4
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Monkeypaws's Avatar
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    I'm not sure I'd go 8 million a year for Dozier. He's a nice piece, but just paying him market rate would likely be less expensive.

  5. #5
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    I still think there could be a switch to SS in his future as well. Like Cody said, this is something that should be done. I'd also note that 8M a year would be a bargain for someone who is likely to be one of the better 2B in the league. My guess is that it happens this offseason. Dozier certainly deserves it.

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    Senior Member All-Star
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    The Twins can afford to pay his arbitration costs. They don't need to buy his decline phase.


    Go year to year and plan trade high in his free agent year. Let some one else buy the decline.

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    They have so much money.....non-issue to pay him $8MM per year or so. Willingham and KC come off the books next year. They won't be signing a FA pitcher, probably. They won't sign an OF, because apparently they are all comfy with their OF, no 3B, and any SS would come cheap. If they think this is real, they may as well pay him. NOT ONE other player on the roster is getting a raise anytime soon.

  8. #8
    5 yr 40 mil seems insanely high. 2015 will still be pre-arb, so that's 600k or so. The first arb year will only be 2-3mil range? So then you're giving him what 8,12 & 15 mil those last 3 years? That makes no sense to me. Go ahead and play it year-to-year. There is a tiny risk he's going to out-play that first FA year of 15 mil at which point you give him a QO and take the pick if he declines. The Twins simply have cheaper replacements (hopefully) and given his limited success so far, it would be Nick Blackburn like to make this deal.

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    Who cares if it is Blackburn like? They have tens of millions sitting around.......and they aren't likely to go spend it.
    Lighten up Francis....

  10. #10
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Pay the man now before he gets crazy expensive.

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nick5253 View Post
    5 yr 40 mil seems insanely high. 2015 will still be pre-arb, so that's 600k or so. The first arb year will only be 2-3mil range? So then you're giving him what 8,12 & 15 mil those last 3 years? That makes no sense to me. Go ahead and play it year-to-year. There is a tiny risk he's going to out-play that first FA year of 15 mil at which point you give him a QO and take the pick if he declines. The Twins simply have cheaper replacements (hopefully) and given his limited success so far, it would be Nick Blackburn like to make this deal.
    Blackburn-like? Not so much. What Dozier is doing is sustainable; what Nick Blackburn was doing was not sustainable.

    The biggest question about Dozier right now is the power but even if it turns from home run power to gap power, he's still an above average player by a considerable margin. Dozier has a skillset that suggests he'll continue to produce at a decent level. Nick Blackburn's skillset was "luck".

  12. #12
    Senior Member Double-A
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    .... Nick Blackburn's skillset was "luck".
    Some might call it luck...I like to call it....well, luck, I guess.
    - Happy Gilmore

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  14. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Blackburn-like? Not so much. What Dozier is doing is sustainable; what Nick Blackburn was doing was not sustainable.

    The biggest question about Dozier right now is the power but even if it turns from home run power to gap power, he's still an above average player by a considerable margin. Dozier has a skillset that suggests he'll continue to produce at a decent level. Nick Blackburn's skillset was "luck".
    Agree - I was simply saying it could be Nick Blackburn like in that he's given an extension needlessly with no or very limited upside for the deal. The biggest take-away from the Blackburn deal was to not handcuff yourselves into a player without getting a heck of a lot more benefit than minimal cost certainty.

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nick5253 View Post
    Agree - I was simply saying it could be Nick Blackburn like in that he's given an extension needlessly with no or very limited upside for the deal. The biggest take-away from the Blackburn deal was to not handcuff yourselves into a player without getting a heck of a lot more benefit than minimal cost certainty.
    And that's fair. Personally, I wouldn't sign Dozier yet. If he's still hitting in May of 2015, then I'd consider buying out his arb + 1 years as a goodwill gesture toward an above average complementary player.

  16. #15
    A lot less risk of paying hitters than pitchers, and Dozier continues to improve his numbers as he is on the leader board in HRs, Rs and SBs. Enough said. Twins told us when we give them a new stadium they will pay to keep our stars. Dozier is our star, possibly even moreso than Mauer, and continues to get better every year. The exodus of our stars has to stop or we will add Dozier to the former Twins putting up all-star numbers.

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    People said that the Span extension was also unnecessary at the time for the same reasons. Having that extension in place was one reason that Span was able to be flipped for a top pitching prospect.

    I think locking in his arb years and one FA year are a very good idea. There's something to be said about taking care of your young players for improving clubhouse morale. It's really not that much money and it could end up saving the Twins some (a lot of money) in the long run.

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  20. #17
    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    Free agent in 2019 no reason to be in a hurry.

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    He is a free agent a long time from now. I don't understand the rush.

  22. #19
    What is the rush. We have had about a year of solid play from Dozier. He has another year before arbitration. Maybe the offseason. I would wait a year, see where Rosario stands and see if Dozier keeps it up.

  23. #20
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    "There's something to be said about taking care of your young players for improving clubhouse morale. It's really not that much money and it could end up saving the Twins some (a lot of money) in the long run." There is also something to be said about keeping a player hungry. I didn't like the Span or Blackburn or Harris or Lamb deals. I am generally a mid to long term guy but we have him already for 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. Buying him out now for what you probably would pay him anyway seems like needless risk. Buyouts can happen anytime. Players agree to longer term in their arb years because of injury risk and a guaranteed big payday. No real need or benefit to it now. Yes, the twins have a ton of money. If things go the way we want them to we will also have a good core of guys who will eventually be using it up. No need to be reckless with it and tie it up now. I have always liked Dozier and hope his OBP rate continues the upward trend. He is a nice piece of the puzzle but you can still hedge your bet next year or the year after.

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