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Thread: Article: Twins Draft Preview: Mock Draft v.1.0

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    Article: TwinsDaily Mock Draft v.1.0


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    16. Arizona - Brandon Finnegan, RHP, TCU - How far does the short righty drop? For today, it's to Arizona.
    Lefty? [Did you use crawford's cross-checker] And if he doesn't regain some luster in the college post season, he will drop farther than that after this weekend's start.

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    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    Whoops. What's worse is that I was looking at a picture of him when I wrote that. (And coincidentally, finished my last drink of the night right around that point.)

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    I think the Cubs go Jackson, leaving the Twins with Gordon. I would be shocked if Hoffman is took in the top 5.

    How did Toronto get 9 & 11?
    Last edited by clutterheart; 05-18-2014 at 11:22 PM.

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    How much under slot do you think the Cubs (or the Twins) could go in signing Hoffman?

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    Quote Originally Posted by clutterheart View Post
    I think the Cubs go Jackson, leaving the Twins with Gordon. I would be shocked if Hoffman is took in the top 5.

    How did Toronto get 9 & 11?
    Bickford I think did not sign last year so Toronto gets a pick this year for that one.

  7. #7
    I think the wisest thing for the Twins to do would be to peg Hoffman with the pick. He has nearly as much upside as anyone in this draft and we're unlikely to be in this position again any time soon. Bonus: he'll already have TJ out of the way! I'm not overwhelmed by Jackson or Gordon by any means. It's said that Gordon projects to have an average bat with great athletecism. Does that excite any of you? And where have we seen that combo before? Oh that's right, every year at short for the twins. I digress, thoughts on Hoff at 5?

  8. #8
    Benji, I agree about the added bonus for Hoffman. Even with TJ he still probably reaches the majors before a high school SS or P. My dream is for Kolek to somehow fall to 5. But, I think Gordon is the guy. I've read/heard of an advanced plate approach, added muscle for better power, and a lock to stick at short with good instincts and a plus arm. A great consolation for a team searching for their first SS to go to multiple all-star games since Zoilo Versalles in 1965.

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    I was asked on Twitter last night was Gordon's ceiling and floor were. Defensively, he's going to be a plus-defender. There are more questions about his offense.

    So maybe his ceiling is .285/.340/.400 or something Andrelton Simmons-like.
    His floor is probably more .225/.280/.310 or something Pedro Florimon-like.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    I was asked on Twitter last night was Gordon's ceiling and floor were. Defensively, he's going to be a plus-defender. There are more questions about his offense.

    So maybe his ceiling is .285/.340/.400 or something Andrelton Simmons-like.
    His floor is probably more .225/.280/.310 or something Pedro Florimon-like.
    That floor scaes me when you are drafting #5 overall.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    That floor scaes me when you are drafting #5 overall.
    As it should, but it's a reminder that there are no guarantees. It could even be lower. Florimon was in the major leagues. Matt Bush and Tim Beckham (both #1s) never made it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    That floor scaes me when you are drafting #5 overall.
    The floor of every HS player is scary. Christopher Crawford just reviewed some of the top draft prospects of the past 10 years. http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1674
    Three past busts were very scary regarding some of the players in this year's class:

    1) "considered a canít-miss prep bat coming out of high school, as a right-handed hitter with tremendous bat speed and enough strength to project to have a plus-plus hit and power tool. Though he was a below-average athlete, he had quality hands and a plus arm, and he looked like a mainstay at the hot corner."
    Sounds similar to Alex Jackson, but this was Josh Vitters. Drafted #3 in 2007, he has spent 8 years in the Cubs minor league system. He managed to rack up an impressive -1.4 WAR in just 108 PAs in 2012 for the Cubs. Career minor league walk rate of just 5.3%.

    2) "in terms of pure stuff, few if any prep left-handers have shown better pitches and command in the last 10 years. He touched 95 mph with his fastball, and he also featured a filthy slider that could cause lefties and righties to swing and miss. Add in an above-average curveball, an average changeup from a clean delivery, along with an advanced ability to throw strikes, and you have a prospect who, on paper, seemed like a can't-miss star."
    Brady Aiken? Nope, Tyler Matzek, who has yet to have a BB/9 less that 4.5.

    College players aren't immune, either.
    3) "left-hander with a fastball that touched 96 mph and a slider that flashed plus-plus with hard, late tilt, many thought he would be an ace."
    Rodon? Nope, Andrew Miller, who only found success in the majors as a left-handed specialist after failing as a starter.

    If Gordon's floor is Florimon, then Jackson's floor is Vitters, which might be worse.

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    Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
    The floor of every HS player is scary. Christopher Crawford just reviewed some of the top draft prospects of the past 10 years. http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1674
    Three past busts were very scary regarding some of the players in this year's class:

    1) "considered a canít-miss prep bat coming out of high school, as a right-handed hitter with tremendous bat speed and enough strength to project to have a plus-plus hit and power tool. Though he was a below-average athlete, he had quality hands and a plus arm, and he looked like a mainstay at the hot corner."
    Sounds similar to Alex Jackson, but this was Josh Vitters. Drafted #3 in 2007, he has spent 8 years in the Cubs minor league system. He managed to rack up an impressive -1.4 WAR in just 108 PAs in 2012 for the Cubs. Career minor league walk rate of just 5.3%.

    2) "in terms of pure stuff, few if any prep left-handers have shown better pitches and command in the last 10 years. He touched 95 mph with his fastball, and he also featured a filthy slider that could cause lefties and righties to swing and miss. Add in an above-average curveball, an average changeup from a clean delivery, along with an advanced ability to throw strikes, and you have a prospect who, on paper, seemed like a can't-miss star."
    Brady Aiken? Nope, Tyler Matzek, who has yet to have a BB/9 less that 4.5.

    College players aren't immune, either.
    3) "left-hander with a fastball that touched 96 mph and a slider that flashed plus-plus with hard, late tilt, many thought he would be an ace."
    Rodon? Nope, Andrew Miller, who only found success in the majors as a left-handed specialist after failing as a starter.

    If Gordon's floor is Florimon, then Jackson's floor is Vitters, which might be worse.
    Sure, every player can flame out and not make the big show. Absolutely, nobody is can't miss. Delmon Young was can't miss. Brandon Wood was a top prospect. Andy Marte. But the reason Gordons floor scares me is that he offensive ceiling is Simmons. Simmons is not a good hitter. In over 900 at bats, his OPS is .710.

    Jackson has been described as the highest likelihood to consistently hit 35 HR a year.

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    Jackson, Gordon, or Touki (can't recall how to spell the last name) are my preferences. "best breaking ball" is a good tool to have.
    Lighten up Francis....

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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Jackson, Gordon, or Touki (can't recall how to spell the last name) are my preferences. "best breaking ball" is a good tool to have.
    My 3 are Freeland, Jackson, and Touki in order.

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    I think Gordon probably makes the most sense. A lot of draft rankers have him in the 4-7 range, he's very likely to stick at short, which is a organizational weakness. Very likely the BPA when they pick and he'll likely sign for a little less than others so they save money.

    (That said, if one of the other four (Aiken, Rodon, Kolek or Jackson) fall, I'd hope we grab them.)

    But Gordon isn't really a sexy pick and it'll be years before he makes the majors so it's a bit boring. I'd be ok with either of the two college arms - Nola/Freeland - or if the Twins went a little risky with Touki.

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    From what I've read, Gordon should move quickly for a HSer. "very advanced approach" is the quote I recall.
    Lighten up Francis....

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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    But the reason Gordons floor scares me is that he offensive ceiling is Simmons. Simmons is not a good hitter. In over 900 at bats, his OPS is .710
    Simmons was a pop-up guy who spent one year at a JC and got less than 1000 minor league ABs. He's only 24 and has less than 1000 MLB plate appearances. There's still projection left. I don't see either as .300 hitters, but a little below.

    Heck, the easy comp to make is Dee Gordon, who's playing out of his mind, and only has a .750 OPS. Granted, Nick will have more pop and Dee will have more speed. Though it won't be big-time home run power and I'd think Dee's speed probably allows him to take extra bases and it might all even out in the end anyway.

  19. #19
    I'd like to see the Twins go with one of the college arms that will be available to them (Nola, Freeland, Beede). I still think pitching is a weakness for this organization. At AAA and AA we have Meyer and then a bunch of guys who don't project to be front of the rotation starters. Of the guys at A ball or Rookie, (Berrios, Stewart, Lee, Gonsalves, Thorpe)....the reality is that some will get hurt and others will have difficulty adjusting to higher competition. The Twins rolled the dice on a prep arm last year. Outside of Rodon, they should have their pick of the top college pitchers this year.

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    There are more holes in this system than can be counted. The MLB is starting SS in the OF because they have no OF in Minnesota or AAA or AA right now. There are no SS anyone loves in the system. BPA.....

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