Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 42

Thread: Article: Twins Draft Preview: Aaron Nola

  1. #1
    Owner All-Star Parker Hageman's Avatar
    Posts
    1,061
    Twitter
    @ParkerHageman
    Like
    2
    Liked 63 Times in 33 Posts
    Blog Entries
    233

    Article: Twins Draft Preview: Aaron Nola


  2. #2
    "but there little question that his fastball is not a significant weapon"

    I don't think this means what you think it means...?

  3. #3
    Owner All-Star Parker Hageman's Avatar
    Posts
    1,061
    Twitter
    @ParkerHageman
    Like
    2
    Liked 63 Times in 33 Posts
    Blog Entries
    233
    One word too many.

  4. #4
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    335
    Like
    26
    Liked 51 Times in 35 Posts
    Blog Entries
    2
    I'm liking Nola more and more as the draft comes up. Even if he doesn't wind up as a big strikeout guy, his ability to limit walks seems like an 80-grade tool. (A tool that is also hard to develop.) For some reason, I am envisioning him coming out of this draft as the best pitcher by far, with teams kicking themselves for passing on him.

    If they were able to sign him for below slot at #5, they could take an overslot HS pitcher in the second round.

    The biggest reason not to draft him is that this might be the last chance the Twins have for a while to have this high of a high draft pick, and therefore it might be the last really good chance to get the SS of the future in a guy like Gordon.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    335
    Like
    26
    Liked 51 Times in 35 Posts
    Blog Entries
    2
    Here is a comp:
    Maddux: 6'0", 170lbs, RHP, Career rates of 6.1K/9 and 1.8BB/9, 8.5H/9, 0.6HR/9.
    Nola: 6'2", 170lbs, 9.4K/9, 1.4BB/9, 6.5H/9, 0.5HR/9.

  6. #6
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    498
    Like
    2
    Liked 80 Times in 50 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by AM. View Post
    Here is a comp:
    Maddux: 6'0", 170lbs, RHP, Career rates of 6.1K/9 and 1.8BB/9, 8.5H/9, 0.6HR/9.
    Nola: 6'2", 170lbs, 9.4K/9, 1.4BB/9, 6.5H/9, 0.5HR/9.
    Yeah, fair comparison.

  7. #7
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jimbo92107's Avatar
    Posts
    546
    Like
    0
    Liked 24 Times in 12 Posts
    Blog Entries
    2
    Nola reminds me of Jered Weaver. Easy slinging motion, pinpoint control. See how he bent that ball from just outside the zone to nip the inside corner? If that's typical of his command, then this guy is going to win a lot of games.

  8. #8
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    2,693
    Like
    311
    Liked 220 Times in 140 Posts
    I like Nola a lot. Admittedly, part of the reason is I don't want to wait 5 years for the pick to make it to the majors like Gordon will need. If one of the big 4 doesn't fall to us, then I'd be happy with either Nola or Freeland. But I'm still hoping for a surprise and nabbing Jackson.

    But we'll draft Gordon.

  9. #9
    You can never have too much pitching. I think the comments about this being the last time the Twins pick this high for a while are right on target. Don't waste this pick on some high school project. Go for one of the established college arms. As we've seen over the past week, the Twins are completely different team when they get even a little bit of pitching. Many of the pitching prospects they have now will get hurt or never pan out. Use this pick on another arm!

  10. #10
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,164
    Like
    103
    Liked 278 Times in 201 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    Yeah, fair comparison.
    Yeah, we have to take him. He is going to be one of the best pitchers of all time.

    I remember when Slowey received comps to Maddux because he didn't walk anyone.

  11. #11
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,164
    Like
    103
    Liked 278 Times in 201 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by LewFordLives View Post
    You can never have too much pitching. I think the comments about this being the last time the Twins pick this high for a while are right on target. Don't waste this pick on some high school project. Go for one of the established college arms. As we've seen over the past week, the Twins are completely different team when they get even a little bit of pitching. Many of the pitching prospects they have now will get hurt or never pan out. Use this pick on another arm!
    I think it comes down to how many k's will this guy get. If we think he will walk less than 2 batters per 9 and K over 7, I would come around a bit to drafting him at 5. I have read a few scouts say that he doesn't have that swing and miss pitch. The one pitch on this article looks great, but it was one pitch. My understanding is he has gotten better as the year progressed and has seen his stock rise, do scouts feel like that fastball or change up are now swing and miss pitches?

  12. #12
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
    Posts
    8,136
    Twitter
    @rocketpig76
    Like
    49
    Liked 1,605 Times in 832 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I remember when Slowey received comps to Maddux because he didn't walk anyone.
    Comping a draft pick to Maddux is always a good place to start. No downside to comping a kid to one of the best pitchers of all time.

  13. #13
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    2,693
    Like
    311
    Liked 220 Times in 140 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    My understanding is he has gotten better as the year progressed and has seen his stock rise, do scouts feel like that fastball or change up are now swing and miss pitches?
    Callis and Mayo at mlbpipeline give him two plus (60) pitches and rank him #5 in the draft. (And plus command, too). That would make him a legit #2 type pitcher if he pans out.

  14. #14
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    335
    Like
    26
    Liked 51 Times in 35 Posts
    Blog Entries
    2
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Comping a draft pick to Maddux is always a good place to start. No downside to comping a kid to one of the best pitchers of all time.
    OK, fine. It was a lousy place to start. I take it back! Plus, I really don't think Nola will be as good as Maddux.

    The downside on Nola, I think, is that he isn't tall enough, doesn't throw it fast enough, and doesn't have one dominating pitch. But if Nola can turn into a pitcher with 3+ K/BB rates, <9 H/9, and keep HRs down...wouldn't that be an exceptional pitcher?

  15. #15
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    277
    Like
    19
    Liked 38 Times in 26 Posts
    Blog Entries
    2
    If the twins took Nola at 5 what are the chances that one of Gatewood, Gordon or Turner is still available? Or if they took one of those three out are the chances they can still get a good pitcher equal to Nola at 46

  16. #16
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,164
    Like
    103
    Liked 278 Times in 201 Posts
    Blog Entries
    5
    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Callis and Mayo at mlbpipeline give him two plus (60) pitches and rank him #5 in the draft. (And plus command, too). That would make him a legit #2 type pitcher if he pans out.
    I have generally heard references to plus pitches being 65+, but I don't know if this is neccesarily an exact science.

    Fangraphs gives comps and stats that provide context to the numbers, but only on command and fastball velocity. For 60 command they give a BB rate of 5.7% and the comp is Rick Porcello. He has a career 2.2 BB per 9, which is very good. 60 fastball velocity averages 93 mph.

    I like the Porcello comp as a potential floor for Nola, career ERA 4.42 and FIP of 4.06. Porcello's ERA was hurt by the fact that he was starting at 20. But Nola should be around 2.2 BB Per 9, but the key is the K's. Porcello is at 5.5 per 9. If Nola can be in the 6.5-7.5 per 9 range I think he can be a #2 starter as well. Given a lower bust potential, if we think he can be that guy I don't hate the pick here, although Jackson and a higher upside arm intrigue me a little more.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2...le-sabr-style/

  17. #17
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    2,693
    Like
    311
    Liked 220 Times in 140 Posts
    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/...3-4-5-starters

    That's from minorleague ball defining the terms when scouts talk about it. Baseball prospectus had something pretty similar although I don't have the link for it and Klaw uses similar definitions as well (ie - 60 = 6 = plus).

    I'd prefer Jackson to fall to us but it's unlikely.

  18. #18
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    215
    Like
    11
    Liked 33 Times in 19 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Given a lower bust potential, if we think he can be that guy I don't hate the pick here, although Jackson and a higher upside arm intrigue me a little more.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2...le-sabr-style/
    This is exactly how I feel - I don't hate the pick but would prefer someone else.

    Also, I'm bookmarking that link. Thanks for sharing.

  19. #19
    I want Aaron Nola and its not even close! I'm not sure a Greg Maddux comp is fair, but a Brad Radke comp is more in line. Wouldn't everybody here discussing this agree a 2nd coming of Brad Radke would be more then welcome on the MN Twins!! Take him, develop Polanco & Santana at short!! You can never have enough quality pitching!!

  20. #20
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,756
    Like
    1
    Liked 103 Times in 73 Posts
    Average is 50, above average is 55, plus is 60-65, plus-plus is 70+.

    As for Nola, I'm just not a fan. If the Twins want a 6'1-6'2 pitcher give me Grant Holmes because of his raw stuff. Maybe I'm just a sucker for stuff or maybe it is because rarely is fastest to the bigs/safest ever turn out to be accurate.

    Wimmers, Gilmartin, and Hultzen (no I'm not comparing stuff but the label all of them were given) injuries/set backs have stopped all three from quick to the big arms. Brian Johnson was given the same label in 2012 and he might actually live up to it. I just don't like when part of a players value is link to quickness to the bigs.

Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.