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Thread: Moneyball II: Oakland Strikes Back

  1. #21
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    If we all knew they were relievers, why were they starting?

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Nobody's in favor of jettisoning guys with option years (Dozier, Hicks). The guys out of option years - Worley, Parmelee, Escobar, Deduno, Plouffe - call them works in progress if you want. What's the attrition rate on these sort of talents? Certainly its higher than say, free agents.

    The A's can use their 40 man roster as currency to hoard these types of players. To their credit, they've done a decent job recognizing the guys who might pan out (but they haven't been perfect either - see how Sogard and Reddick are doing?)

    The Twins aren't in the A's position. They shouldn't be wasting many spots on these sort of players. Most will bust. When you carry a lot of them, you will probably have a lousy product.
    As I recall the Twins have used their roster for these types of players. Presley was a rule 5 pick up. Florimon was a waiver claim, Escobar was part of a salary dump, Burton was a minor league free agent signing, Fuld was a waiver claim. Lots of examples of how we do this all of the time.

  3. #23
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    If we all knew they were relievers, why were they starting?
    It was a gamble by the Twins. They drafted several college relievers in an attempt to convert a couple into starters. I thought it was a shrewd move, even if it doesn't pan out.

  4. #24
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    It is interesting to read how teams do what they do. I read Moneyball in a weekend after it came out and found it very interesting. It wasn't more than about a year after that the the A's changed their strategies and they continue to change it.

    The Rays get a lot of credit as well, and deservingly so. They also have a method.

    All 32 teams are different, think different, etc, but at the same time, you can find examples in every organization of different philosophies at work.

    Most important, there is no one absolute correct way to run a baseball team. A team can win in many different ways.

    If the A's or Rays would have signed Matt Guerrier, it would have been lauded on the Twins Daily forums for the wise decisions those teams made in signing successful big leaguers coming off of injury. Both of those teams have used that strategy many times.

    It's just, and I apologize for this, some on these forums are going to disagree with 95% of what the Twins choose to do, be it the ownership, the front office, or the manager.

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  6. #25
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    If we all knew they were relievers, why were they starting?
    For a variety of reasons. 1.) to add pitches and to work on pitches. That's fairly important, even for a big league reliever, to have 2-3 good pitches. 2.) starters are more valuable than relievers, so why not try it? Maybe you catch lightning once. 3.) There are generally only one or two or three relievers in a big league bullpen that will only work one inning, so why not develop guys who can go 2-4 innings if needed.

    There are just plenty of good reasons.

  7. #26
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    Fair enough. If you want to make the majors and make money......wouldn't a player want the more likely route? I am curious if you have ever discussed that with a prospect.

  8. #27
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    It is interesting to read how teams do what they do. I read Moneyball in a weekend after it came out and found it very interesting. It wasn't more than about a year after that the the A's changed their strategies and they continue to change it.
    It seems that a lot of people confuse Moneyball: The Book with Moneyball: The Strategy.

    Moneyball: The Book was about how the A's returned to contention by spotting an analysis deficiency: walks and OBP were massively undervalued in MLB scouting analysis. The A's then exploited that weakness in analysis.

    Moneyball: The Strategy is about spotting and exploiting analysis deficiencies. Walks were only a temporary blip on the radar and Beane has since moved on to other things.

    And too many fail to realize that the Twins played their own version of Moneyball (quite successfully) for years. They simply took a different path than Beane and they continue to try new things here and there (such as drafting a potential analysis deficiency, college relievers, and turn them into MLB starters, a much more valuable commodity).

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    diehardtwinsfan (06-07-2014), Hosken Bombo Disco (06-03-2014), Seth Stohs (06-03-2014)

  10. #28
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Fair enough. If you want to make the majors and make money......wouldn't a player want the more likely route? I am curious if you have ever discussed that with a prospect.
    I have, and you get different responses. First and foremost, they want to be the best they can be. Some that have been encouraged to start have done so because they get the big picture. Some have said they preferred bullpen, and that has generally happened more quickly then. Some just want a chance to start. There's more money for starters than reliever, though no one will ever admit that's what they think.

  11. #29
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    Thanks, Seth.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    If we all knew they were relievers, why were they starting?
    To get them innings. Better question is why they spent high picks on relief pitchers.

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  14. #31
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Looking forward to the title Moneyball III: Return of the Twins.

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  16. #32
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    Twins have long needed power arms in the bullpen Look at the Cardinals as an example, most of their relievers throw gas. Command can be another issue as most great closers have great command. You need a lot of relievers to find the special 1 or 2 that will be super.

  17. #33
    Not platooning is my biggest pet peeve, probably. For example, having Kubel in last night's lineup... Gardy just gives away outs in the name of some stubborn sense of grit.

  18. #34
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    To me the single biggest difference between the Rays/As and the Twins is smart and effective use of their 25 man roster. I like many of the things the a Twins do to acquire young talent but my god has their MLB roster management been bad for awhile.

  19. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    They went and signed an expensive Intl FA.
    Right, and they did so when they were in a down cycle to boot. We don't HAVE to only be aggressive when the team is looking to contend, rather, we could be aggressive in order TO contend. The Twins don't seem to understand this. I'm down on them for sure, but it's frustrating when the organization you want so badly to win, does such silly, foolish, insular things and rarely change.

  20. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    As for international free agents, I do not understand the griping over how the Twins have spent in recent years. It looks like they absolutely stole Lewis Thorpe just two years ago. The guy looks to be a beast of a pitcher - remember that he is over one year younger than Kohl Stewart.
    I agree in part. Thorpe so far is awesome and the Twins seem to have bumbled onto a market inefficiency (!) in Australian players. However, the rest of their international spending is frustrating to me. I don't think they spent all of their allotted budget this most previous cycle and they don't seem to go after the big names like Abreu from last year. Which is extremely silly to me since one of their best two prospects was aquired by spending big in the international market. Why not try again? They won't all be Sano, but some could.

  21. #37
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    Cut Kubel now & give his at bats to a younger player. 153 at bats and 55 strikeouts?? something close to that anyway. Kubel does nothing for the Twins futue

  22. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by benji21 View Post
    I don't think they spent all of their allotted budget this most previous cycle and they don't seem to go after the big names like Abreu from last year.
    I believe they came really close to spending to their cap. Anyone have hard numbers on this?

    A lot of the frustration comes from people jumping the gun on international signings and fretting that the Twins don't "blow their wad" in the first few weeks. But, to my knowledge, by the end of the signing period they've always been close to their cap, if not right at it.

    The international signing period is long and it takes some time for a lot of teams to reach their cap, particularly if they don't spend huge money on 1-2 guys right away, as the Twins haven't done in recent years.

  23. #39
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Last I heard they were a couple hundred thousand under the 3.9M they had to spend. To me, that's spending your cap. But the final numbers haven't been published and some of the most recent signings never had dollar amounts listed.

  24. #40
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Last I heard they were a couple hundred thousand under the 3.9M they had to spend. To me, that's spending your cap. But the final numbers haven't been published and some of the most recent signings never had dollar amounts listed.
    Yeah, anything over 90% is close enough for me. I consider that going up against your cap, as even relative unknowns (but big talents) like Lewis Thorpe go for $500,000. Once you get down into the sub-$100k range, you're combing through leftovers.

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