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Thread: Love seeing Arcia come alive. However...

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post
    He's 23 years old and came up pretty quickly. Give him a little more time to work on recognizing pitches outside the zone and to developing plate discipline. It isn't something I would expect to come all at once.
    Agreed. Heck, if we're going to pass judgement on a SSS, he has a lower K% than last year. His minor league OBP was consistently in the .350-.400 range. Will he achieve that in the majors? Maybe not, but he knows how to get some walks. Once he learns how to lay off breaking pitches from LOOGYs and the up&in FB at the ML, he's going to be good - actually better than good.

    I mean, that sequence where he hit the grand slam... he took three straight pitches, fouled one off, and hit the big one. He showed some patience, but knew what to do with 2 outs, bases loaded, 2-2 count when he was given the pitch he wanted.

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  3. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I would say the disjunction is more like a conditional. If his production starts to fall, he will need to walk more. If pitchers keep throwing him meatballs, he shouldn't be taking them in order to increase his walk rate. When they start pitching around him, he will need to lay off those pitches and take more walks.
    Except it's not conditional. It's 100% certain that pitchers will adjust. We don't know how he will adjust in turn, and thus there is at least some uncertainty or reason for concern. It's a pretty straightforward situation... maybe you have a crystal ball, but for the rest of us, we'll just have to wait and see.

  4. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I haven't heard a single complaint about Hicks walking too much. His inability to make solid contact? Sure...those two things are not even remotely the same.
    Go back and read the thread about Gardy's and Antony's comments re: Hicks' lack of aggressiveness. Plenty of people agreed with their assessment. Some of the same people are complaining about Arcia's aggressiveness.

    As Brock said, this is not a contradiction. But it is a conflict if you consider that Arcia's aggressiveness is resulting in lots of homers and doubles, which everyone will say are better than walks. When his aggressiveness becomes a problem, he'll need to work on it.

    You can say it tends in that direction for most players, but that is a statement with large samples sizes behind it. Guys go through periods of walking a lot, when pitchers are pitching around them; and periods of not walking a lot, when they are hot and pitchers are throwing them a lot of strikes. Over the course of a season or two, these streaks tend to even out. Right now, Arcia is in one of the latter streaks. And it is only 10 days since he came off the DL. Give it time.

    Correlation does not imply causation. Guys walk a lot because pitchers don't throw them strikes and they don't swing at balls. You need both tines of that fork to make a complete causal argument. Right now, we just have one tine.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  5. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    Except it's not conditional. It's 100% certain that pitchers will adjust. We don't know how he will adjust in turn, and thus there is at least some uncertainty or reason for concern. It's a pretty straightforward situation... maybe you have a crystal ball, but for the rest of us, we'll just have to wait and see.
    I am arguing for "wait and see" rather than "the sky is falling."
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  6. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    Oliva was a notorious bad ball hitter, like Puckett. Neither struck out that much, though.
    Arcia swings wildly. Pitchers make him look bad. Oliva only once had a k/bb rate of 2 (it was exactly 2) and that was a year where his strike out rate was less than 10. It was several years before Puckett had a rate under 2.

    Oliva was famous for saying, "If you like a pitch, you swing." He did barrel up on balls out of the zone. His bio on SABR write about his near perfect and aesthetically pleasing swing. His aggressive approach and confidence did put fear into pitchers that he would make solid contact on pitches outside the zone.

    I don't think anyone who saw both players would see any similarity in their swing or approach.

  7. #46
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Okay, let's tone it down a bit. No need to start making it personal and this thread is coming close. Keep on point.

    To be fair, even Joe Mauer's BB% has declined to low levels when he's really on a roll. Guys don't walk when they're seeing the ball well and boy, is Arcia really seein' that ball right now.

    It will be interesting to see how pitchers adjust and then how he adjusts following that adjustment, which will lead to another adjustment and probably another adjustment.

  8. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I am arguing for "wait and see" rather than "the sky is falling."
    I'm not sure if this is allowed, but one last try: no one is saying the sky is falling.

  9. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    I'm not sure if this is allowed, but one last try: no one is saying the sky is falling.
    I read several comments in a row in which the writers expressed concerns about his future, one of whom compared him to Delmon Young. On one whole page of comments, the general tenor was negative on a night when he had just hit a grand slam and a double the day after he hit a three-run bomb and the game-winning single. That's what I reacted to.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  10. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I read several comments in a row in which the writers expressed concerns about his future, one of whom compared him to Delmon Young. On one whole page of comments, the general tenor was negative on a night when he had just hit a grand slam and a double the day after he hit a three-run bomb and the game-winning single. That's what I reacted to.
    I don't see any evidence that the first page of the thread was negative. Most posts were positive or just neutrally cited statistics. One poster did note that Delmon Young was a player with a lot of ability who didn't develop, but he was not saying the same would happen here, only that Arcia had to develop as a hitter (an obviously correct statement).

    Discussing a player's performance is a basic topic that should be expected on a baseball forum. Noting certain tendencies, areas needing improvement, etc., is not an attack requiring a response. This board is overwhelmingly positive towards Arcia and it's inexpicable that anyone could suggest otherwise.

  11. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I read several comments in a row in which the writers expressed concerns about his future, one of whom compared him to Delmon Young. On one whole page of comments, the general tenor was negative on a night when he had just hit a grand slam and a double the day after he hit a three-run bomb and the game-winning single. That's what I reacted to.
    Delmon Young had tons of raw ability as does Arcia and he provides an excellent example of what COULD happen if Arcia continues to swing at everything. It's hard to be a successful MLB player when you have a 6:1 K:BB ratio (MLB career). I'm extremely bullish on Arcia because of natural raw ability but hitters like Arcia also carry downside and it's silly to simply look at a few HR's and say that the downside doesn't exist.

  12. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    Delmon Young had tons of raw ability as does Arcia and he provides an excellent example of what COULD happen if Arcia continues to swing at everything. It's hard to be a successful MLB player when you have a 6:1 K:BB ratio (MLB career). I'm extremely bullish on Arcia because of natural raw ability but hitters like Arcia also carry downside and it's silly to simply look at a few HR's and say that the downside doesn't exist.
    Therein lies the quandary, though. We heard repeatedly that the Rays advanced DY too quickly through the system.

    Should Arcia be spending more time in the minors developing his pitch recognition or can he do that with extra work with Brunansky?

    We love the power and punch he brings to this line-up but is it the best thing for him developmentally (and ultimately the best thing for the Twins as the seasons go on)????

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  14. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    I don't see any evidence that the first page of the thread was negative. Most posts were positive or just neutrally cited statistics. One poster did note that Delmon Young was a player with a lot of ability who didn't develop, but he was not saying the same would happen here, only that Arcia had to develop as a hitter (an obviously correct statement).

    Discussing a player's performance is a basic topic that should be expected on a baseball forum. Noting certain tendencies, areas needing improvement, etc., is not an attack requiring a response. This board is overwhelmingly positive towards Arcia and it's inexpicable that anyone could suggest otherwise.
    Well, maybe I read it wrong. But it sure seemed to me that many of the posters were saying if he didn't get his Ks down and his walks up, he was headed to an inevitable fall. It just seemed odd to see all that talk on that night in particular. When he starts getting pitched around, we'll see how he adjusts. Hopefully he lays off more often. Until then, I'd like to enjoy the ride without worrying about his next slump.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  15. #53
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    The discussion prior to your post took place before the game.

  16. #54
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    The top 16 MLB players in walk rate last year all hit 20+ home runs. Number 17 was Mauer.

    Hitting the ball hard and walks go together.
    Generally yes, but the stats you cited, ordered the way you did, exclude any chance for evidence to the contrary. For a fuller picture, here are some other guys with 20+ HR: Pedro Alvarez (36 HR. 48 BB), Alphonso Soriano (34 HR, 36 BB), Adam Jones (33 HR, 25 BB), Raul Ibanez (29 HR, 42 BB), Domonic Brown (27 HR, 39 BB), Nelson Cruz (27 HR, 35 BB).

    It won't last. He either will take more walks or his production will decrease dramatically.
    Of course he won't continue this current abnormally low walk rate. But he can walk at the rate he did last season, and be in some pretty good company.

    I don't take issue with the idea that Arcia will have to adjust when the pitchers do. I just take issue with the use of stats this way. Said another way, the evidence you gave would be consistent with "pitchers don't give tons of walks to slap hitters", but does not support "if Arcia doesn't walk more, he'll become a slap hitter".
    Last edited by ashburyjohn; 06-06-2014 at 01:14 PM.

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  18. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    Said another way, the evidence you gave would be consistent with "pitchers don't give tons of walks to slap hitters", but does not support "if Arcia doesn't walk more, he'll become a slap hitter".
    When and where did I or anyone else suggest Arcia might become a "slap hitter"?

  19. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    When and where did I or anyone else suggest Arcia might become a "slap hitter"?
    That's why there was a smiley face at the end.

    I also committed a rookie mistake: I didn't notice the thread had continued to another page, and on that page the tone of discussion had gone seriously downhill. So my bit of exaggeration for humor's sake may have seemed more pointed than it was.

    I went for humor rather than the dry approach. "Data shows all hitters with high walks have high HR totals". (All A is B.) "Therefore without high walks, you won't have high HR totals". (Not A implies not B - a fallacy.) "Pitchers don't walk slap hitters." (Not B implies not A - a valid conclusion.) "But pitchers don't walk other hitters too." (Not A may still allow B - also valid.) The data you provided simply didn't say anything about "Not A", and not everything about "B"; I provided some. You can hit homers without being among the league leaders in walks. Dry enough?
    Last edited by ashburyjohn; 06-06-2014 at 02:52 PM.

  20. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    There's no reason both can't be true. Arcia is on the far end of the aggressive scale and Hicks is on the far end of the passive scale.
    Literally true, as the swing rate numbers back up this claim.

  21. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    Go back and read the thread about Gardy's and Antony's comments re: Hicks' lack of aggressiveness. Plenty of people agreed with their assessment. Some of the same people are complaining about Arcia's aggressiveness.

    As Brock said, this is not a contradiction. But it is a conflict if you consider that Arcia's aggressiveness is resulting in lots of homers and doubles, which everyone will say are better than walks. When his aggressiveness becomes a problem, he'll need to work on it.

    You can say it tends in that direction for most players, but that is a statement with large samples sizes behind it. Guys go through periods of walking a lot, when pitchers are pitching around them; and periods of not walking a lot, when they are hot and pitchers are throwing them a lot of strikes. Over the course of a season or two, these streaks tend to even out. Right now, Arcia is in one of the latter streaks. And it is only 10 days since he came off the DL. Give it time.

    Correlation does not imply causation. Guys walk a lot because pitchers don't throw them strikes and they don't swing at balls. You need both tines of that fork to make a complete causal argument. Right now, we just have one tine.
    Gotta tell you, I've never seen either a one- or a two-tined fork before.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    Generally yes, but the stats you cited, ordered the way you did, exclude any chance for evidence to the contrary. For a fuller picture, here are some other guys with 20+ HR: Pedro Alvarez (36 HR. 48 BB), Alphonso Soriano (34 HR, 36 BB), Adam Jones (33 HR, 25 BB), Raul Ibanez (29 HR, 42 BB), Domonic Brown (27 HR, 39 BB), Nelson Cruz (27 HR, 35 BB).



    Of course he won't continue this current abnormally low walk rate. But he can walk at the rate he did last season, and be in some pretty good company.

    I don't take issue with the idea that Arcia will have to adjust when the pitchers do. I just take issue with the use of stats this way. Said another way, the evidence you gave would be consistent with "pitchers don't give tons of walks to slap hitters", but does not support "if Arcia doesn't walk more, he'll become a slap hitter".
    As I pointed out previously, a career 31% K-rate and 5.5% BB-rate leaves him on an island by himself. And his neighboring islander company are Cris Carter and Mark Reynolds.

  23. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Gotta tell you, I've never seen either a one- or a two-tined fork before.
    A one-tined fork is a skewar. A two-tined fork is a shrimp fork. Just ask this guy:

    blueraja.jpg
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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