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Thread: Nick Burdi Vs Carlos Gutierrez & Billy Bullock

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    Nick Burdi Vs Carlos Gutierrez & Billy Bullock

    I would like to know if there will be any comparisons between the 3 listed pitchers that the Twins have drafted.

    Carlos Gutierrez was drafted 27th overall in the 2008 draft. He was supposed to be on the fast track to the Majors and be a future closer who never panned out.

    Billy Bullock was drafted in the 2nd round in 2009 and he did put up great numbers for the Twins but was dealt to Atlanta so the Twins could keep Scott Diamond. He is now out of baseball and just couldn't make it in Atlanta.

    So this brings us to Nick Burdi who the Twins just drafted who is supposed really close to being ready. I just hope the Twins don't hold him back and use the "we don't want to rush him to the majors" and waste an opportunity to get a huge arm in the bullpen soon.

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    Don't forget to include Jesse Crain in this discussion. How was he successful on his fast track to the majors?

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    Gutierrez was never on the fast track to the majors or becoming the next closer. He was a closer in college partly due having TJ in what I believe was his sophomore year. They didn't want to push him too hard his junior year so they put him at closer. He was drafted and developed to be a starter. He is also incredibly different from Burdi since gutierrez had a low 90's hard sinker and a what looked like a nice slider that he never really used effectively. Almost nothing in common with Burdi or Bullock.

    Bullock was very similar (but not as good) to Burdi and can serve as an example of how poor command despite good college BB rates still means poor command. Burdi had a career 3.2 BB/9 (trending better albeit) vs Bullock 3.5 (trending worse). Just because you can be effectively wild in college doesn't mean that pro hitters in AA/AAA/MLB will swing at anything. Or they still might as seen by several top MLB setup guys and closers with poor BB rates.

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    College relievers taken in the first 3 rounds since Crain (in 2002):

    Gutierrez
    Bullock
    Williams
    Bard
    Melotakis
    Chargois

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    Quote Originally Posted by darin617 View Post
    So this brings us to Nick Burdi who the Twins just drafted who is supposed really close to being ready. I just hope the Twins don't hold him back and use the "we don't want to rush him to the majors" and waste an opportunity to get a huge arm in the bullpen soon.
    Burdi can pitch today in the Twins' pen and be better than Burton. He is 21.5. Really high on him. Repeat Twins' draft pick, btw. Righty comparable to Chapman and I think that he has all the tools to have similar career. I will be disappointed if he did not start this season at least at Cedar Rapids if not at Fort Myers and get a ST invite next season. He is ready.
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    I don't remember Crain being in the minors too long.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandon View Post
    I don't remember Crain being in the minors too long.
    2.5 years. Too long, if you remember that the Twins were dragging the remains of Jesse Orosco, Terry Mulholland, Carlos Pulido, Mike Fetters et. al in their pen, while Crain was killing it in Fort Myers and New Britain in 2003. And they started him in E-town. And Crain was a year and a half younger than Burdi when he signed.
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    I am seeking similar college relievers who have been successful. Sorting by fastball velocity. Craig Kimbrel comes up first.

    Kimbrel was drafted in the 3rd round in 2008. He arrived in the majors in May 2010. He didn't stick and returned in September.

    His path
    2008 R,A,A+
    2009 A+,AA,AAA
    2010 AAA-Majors-AAA-Majors-AAA-Majors

    Is that path too conservative? Burdi would be up for good at the end of 2016.

    Kimbrel was a year younger when drafted.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    I am seeking similar college relievers who have been successful. Sorting by fastball velocity. Craig Kimbrel comes up first.

    Kimbrel was drafted in the 3rd round in 2008. He arrived in the majors in May 2010. He didn't stick and returned in September.

    His path
    2008 R,A,A+
    2009 A+,AA,AAA
    2010 AAA-Majors-AAA-Majors-AAA-Majors

    Is that path too conservative? Burdi would be up for good at the end of 2016.

    Kimbrel was a year younger when drafted.
    You got to also look at how were the teams doing and who was blocking them. The Braves were contenders then (other than 2008 of course) while the Twins are bottom feeders now.

    '09 they had Soriano, Gonzalez and Moylan and Medlen up and coming, 2010 they added Wagner and Saito for the first 2 and had a pen with 5 guys with ERAs under 3. Different than the Twins' recent pen...
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    jorgen, for some on these boards, if Burdi isn't up by July, it will be too conservative...

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    I was fun watching him blow away Kenesaw State tonight. Consistent 98-99 on the gun. I'd love to see him in July. The jump from Kenesaw State to the AL is quite steep though.

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    If Burdi is what he appears to be, I figure Cedar Rapids to start, and a very possible/probable promotion and split to his season in Ft Meyers. That puts him on track for AA to begin 2015, or at worst, an early promotion after getting his legs under him. That could easily mean a Rochester promotion at some point, and a shot at the ML level 2016. Late 2015? Maybe.

    What could hold him back some this year, however, could be a later season case of arm fatigue after a season of college ball.

    Maybe it's just me, but as I've stated before, I'm seeing a subtle switch in the Twins brain trust to be a little more aggressive, and a little less patient at the same time. In other words, they just seem quicker to pull the trigger when someone deserves to move, and quicker to move someone down if not producing. I suppose three bad years, and a wave of prospects moving up will do that to a team.

    Im expecting a lot of mid season promotions here pretty soon as draftees sign and the rookie leagues begin.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    jorgen, for some on these boards, if Burdi isn't up by July, it will be too conservative...
    Why draft a RPer if you don't rush them to the bigs? The only reason he was projected to be a 1st round pick was because experts figured teams would see him as a player whom could help now rather than later. His "massive" 1 WAR a year isn't the reason.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Why draft a RPer if you don't rush them to the bigs? The only reason he was projected to be a 1st round pick was because experts figured teams would see him as a player whom could help now rather than later. His "massive" 1 WAR a year isn't the reason.
    Exactly! Someone else has the same reasoning for drafting a relief pitcher so high. The sad part of playing for the Twins is that he may be up by the end of 2016 if he is lucky.

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    He should start in Ft Myers this season and the 3rd rd should start in Cedar Rapids. Burdi played in a top college program and top college players don't need to start in the midwest league. I don't think he would need to be promoted this season unless he destroys it there but his performance should dictate when he gets promoted. I could see 2014 at Ft Myers and 1/2 of 2015 in AA with a promotion to the Twins if he looks good.

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    Who was the last Twin's pick who didn't have to go to the rookie leagues right away? Levi Michael I think. I don't think they've let anyone go straight to A ball the last two years, not even the "fast track" college arms.

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    It takes a high draft pick and top level college competition to skip right to A ball. here are pitchers that have done it recently.

    guys who skipped rk ball
    gibson
    wimmers
    gutierrez

    guys who made a few appearances and moved up to A ball quickly
    Zac Jones
    Melatokis
    Bullock

    Burdi is a better prospect than any of the last 3 and because he is a RP'er (drafted lower than starters) his skill level is at least on par with the first 3.

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    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    I thought Burdi wasn't expected to start?

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    One reliever drafted in 2013 has pitched in the majors this year. The Indians drafted lefty Kyle Crockett from Virginia and he pitched in three games in May.

    his path

    2013: A-, A, AA
    2014: AA, Majors, AAA

    He is currently in AAA.

    Paco Rodriguez is a a Dodger lefty reliever from Florida. He was drafted round 2 in 2012.

    2012: A, AA, majors
    2013: majors
    2014: Majors, AAA

    He is currently in AAA.

    Both pitchers started below high A.
    Last edited by jorgenswest; 06-07-2014 at 08:50 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    I thought Burdi wasn't expected to start?
    start the season...

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