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Thread: Super 2 Cutoff

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    I wouldn't worry too much about that. Gilmartin, Dean and Vasquez could all make the move to AAA. They all played there last year.

    In Fort Myers, Jason Wheeler is ready. Matt Tomshaw should move up. D.J. Baxendale has played the part of two season in NB (though he's struggled). There are also a handful of guys in their bullpen - Shibuya, Hermsen, Gruver (not to mention Melotakis and Boer) - that could transition back to that role without digging into CR's rotation (where Slegers could make his move up too).
    And possibly David Hurlbut and Tyler Jones from Ft Myers, as well (What the heck, even Berrios might be under consideration with one or two more lights-out outings- see accompanying story- http://twinsdaily.com/showthread.php...cher-%E2%80%9D).

    Any worry about hollowing out pitching depth at the lower levels is completely overblown, IMO. Plus, there are always AAAA guys getting waived by other teams, who could be signed and thrown in to the mix if the absolute worst happened.
    Last edited by jokin; 06-10-2014 at 12:21 AM.

  2. #22
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    So from what Jeremy Nygaard and jokin are saying, the Twins are holding back pitchers at every level because they never promote anyone out of AAA??


  3. #23
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DuluthFan View Post
    May and Meyer need to remain in AAA until the September roster expansion.
    Uh... No.

    Trevor May is 24 years old and is dominating AAA hitters. This is his seventh (!) season as a minor league pitcher. He has 738 MiLB innings under his belt. It's time for him to try his hand against MLB batters.

    I'm one of the more patient people on this board re: prospect development and promotion but even I can see that Trevor May's time has come. He needs to get the call. There's rotation space for him and maybe most importantly, he deserves that call. He has earned it.

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  5. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by DuluthFan View Post
    May and Meyer need to remain in AAA until the September roster expansion. These two pitchers need time to learn how to pitch. They do not need to do this at the expense of the major league team. Remember this was a team that wasn't expected to do much this year. Now that they are competitive with the players that they do have, they should be given every opportunity to see how far they can go. May and Meyer will have ample opportunity to earn a spot in the starting rotation next season.
    I'm all for not rushing prospects, but Meyer and May are both 24 years old. Neither has skipped any levels (May in fact has repeated levels, and has 738 career MiLB IP). Remember when Gibson was originally knocking on the door in 2011? Both Meyer and May are about a full year older than Gibson was at that time. Remember when Dozier came up in 2012 as an old-ish college player? May is just two months younger than Dozier was at that time. (Gibson and Dozier are also examples of how rookies can struggle, but also how most final adjustments need to be made at the MLB level regardless. There is an upper limit to the development process in AAA, and I suspect Meyer and May are close to it, given their demonstrated abilities.)

    Quote Originally Posted by DuluthFan View Post
    If you prematurely advance these two pitchers that everyone is predicting to be future cornerstones of the rotation, you risk their development and the team's current play. Yes, they could replace Coreia, Deduno or Pelfrey right now. But what happens if you do that and they fail? If Coreia, Deduno and Pelfrey are not around, what would you have left to fall back on, a couple more AAA pitchers in Darnell, Johnson, Pino and Diamond. So you end up calling them up. Your AAA team would then have to call up AA pitchers who may not be ready for AAA. You would be back to where the Twins were the last two years, with no high level pitchers to call upon when injuries decimate the rotation.
    I haven't seen anyone advocate cutting Deduno, and many of us don't even want to cut Correia yet, just demote one or both to the bullpen. They would still be available to step in for another starter in the event of injury or ineffectiveness.

    Actually, the presence of these two (and the potential return of Pelfrey) make this an ideal time to break in younger starters at the MLB level. Unless you plan to re-sign Correia or a similar pitcher for 2015, and guarantee Pelfrey a roster spot all winter, you have more potential veteran replacements for young starters now in 2014 than you may have in 2015.

    Quote Originally Posted by DuluthFan View Post
    Meyer is not even on the 40 man roster yet. He can play all season without needing to be added to the roster. If you wait until next season before adding him you will keep his 3 option years intact.
    First, unless Pelfrey can restart his rehab and return to the active roster within the next 3 weeks (highly unlikely), he can safely move to the 60-day DL and open up a 40-man roster spot without us losing a player.

    Second, if Meyer is added to the 40-man and sticks until the Sep. 1st roster expansion, he won't use an option and will still have all 3 heading into next spring. (And May of course has already used his option this year, so he can be recalled and demoted freely for the next few months with no future roster/contractual consequences.)

    Finally, option years are great for younger players, role players, bullpen types, etc. But if you really need to option Alex Meyer in 2017 at age 27, it's probably not a big deal to simply shift him to the pen or expose him to waivers at that point.
    Last edited by spycake; 06-10-2014 at 09:14 AM.

  6. #25
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    No more than 2 guys from any team can play in the futures game. The Twins have multiple candidates - Vargas will probably be one, Meyer could be the second, I'd say May will be up within 2 weeks.

  7. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScottyB View Post
    No more than 2 guys from any team can play in the futures game. The Twins have multiple candidates - Vargas will probably be one, Meyer could be the second, I'd say May will be up within 2 weeks.
    Vargas will qualify for the world team, as would Berrios. Meyer and May could play on the US team. Seeing only 2 of those 4 will still be worth the price of admission.
    Last edited by jokin; 06-10-2014 at 09:13 AM.

  8. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Vargas will qualify for the world team, as would Berrios. Meyer and May could play on the US team.
    It makes about as much sense to hold Meyer until July to pitch one inning in a meaningless game (for the second time) as it does to play me in the game.

  9. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    It makes about as much sense to hold Meyer until July to pitch one inning in a meaningless game (for the second time) as it does to play me in the game.
    Don't get me wrong, I would have had Meyer pitching in the bullpen over a month ago, but it is what it is...the Twins seem in no hurry to move him up. Perhaps with a 60-day DL move for Pelfrey he gets on the 40-man?

  10. #29
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Kirby_Waved_At_Me's Avatar
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    I hope that the aggressiveness that the front office showed in signing Morales is contagious and results in a very short fuse for the pitching staff.

  11. #30
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    If you move up Meyer before next season, it's one year earlier to free agency - that's what the Twins are thinking.

  12. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by howeda7 View Post
    It's good to know the Twins FO posts here.
    This seems like an unfair response to a well-written and well-thought-out post.

  13. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScottyB View Post
    If you move up Meyer before next season, it's one year earlier to free agency - that's what the Twins are thinking.
    No, it's not. To get an extra year of service time, the Twins would have to wait until May of 2015 to promote Meyer.

    And that seems like pretty poor resource management. Meyer will be 25 next season. Start the clock on him this season and let him take his licks against MLB hitters for awhile.

  14. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScottyB View Post
    If you move up Meyer before next season, it's one year earlier to free agency - that's what the Twins are thinking.
    If called up right now and never demoted again, Alex Meyer would not be a free agent until age 31. I doubt the Twins are concerned about that. (To get an extra year of control, you'd have to keep him in the minors until May 2015... but then he'd be a 2015 Super-2 player, with 4 years of arbitration salaries instead of 3... unless you kept him down until July 2015... and the cycle continues )

    If he was near a shutdown point in terms of innings or fatigue, I'd say wait. But he still has almost 100 IP left before the suggested 2014 limit. He could come up today and take regular turns in the MLB rotation until Sep. 1st and not exceed that limit. (And his more recent pitch count limit suggests to me they want save some of those innings for MLB, maybe even into September if he's pitching well?)

  15. #34
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    (And his more recent pitch count limit suggests to me they want save some of those innings for MLB, maybe even into September if he's pitching well?)
    My thoughts as well. I think the Twins are artificially keeping his innings count low so that he can pitch deeper into the season with some of those innings coming in Minnesota.

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  17. #35
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Well, the consensus seems to be that 2.111 days of service time is the probably cutoff, at least that's what every article is saying about the timing of Gregory Polanco's promotion.

    In other words, if May pitched tonight, instead of Correia, and remained healthy through the rest of 2014-2016, he'd be in the same boat as Polanco at 2.111 days.
    Last edited by Willihammer; 06-10-2014 at 12:47 PM.

  18. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    Personally, pitchers get a finite amount of bullets... and I'd let them fly in the Show.
    This is the point that gets lost far too often. When pitchers are ready, they should be moved up. No point in wasting a lot of these bullets in MiLB.

  19. #37
    Senior Member All-Star 70charger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    I would never worry about the Super-2 deadline with pitchers. Ever. There's just too much that can happen, both injury-wise and through ineffectiveness. With pitchers I'd care more about that extra year of control (which is basically two starts at the beginning of a career) and leave them in the minors. At this point, though, there shouldn't be anything holding the Twins back from giving them a chance.

    But of course, the Twins are consistently saying it's about "consistency".

    Personally, pitchers get a finite amount of bullets... and I'd let them fly in the Show.

    I agree with this and would take it even further. I don't care about Super 2 period, for pitchers or for hitters. The cool thing about arbitration is that they won't be paid more than they've proven they're worth. (And honestly, in the first couple years of arbitration, they may still end up underpaid anyway.) What's a few million extra when you can transition a top prospect the major leagues in his prime years? Hell, I'll gladly pay more for age 27 if it means he's in the majors at age 24. Right?

    I do agree about the extra year of control, though. But that deadline is far earlier than Super 2, so I just can't bring myself to care about what they might (might!) get paid with one more year of arbitration.

  20. #38
    70charger, I completely agree. We far too often consider the actual financial cost without paying any attention to or measuring the hidden costs/benefits. Thrown pitches at AAA, prime years production, arbitration year value for team, as well as pragmatic value props like fans staying more engaged because it senses you are trying to win.

    I am a Twins apologist by nature and patient to an extreme, so I'm not one to shout from the mountaintops or anything, but there is actually no reason to wait any longer to promote May and Meyer. In fact, there are genuine, tangible reasons why any other decision is a foolish one financially.

  21. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by darin617 View Post
    The Twins maybe need to take a page out of the Yankees old playbook. Just start trading your prospects for established players. If you are not going to reward players for their success swing a deal and get something now and win.
    So, who do you bring up? If it's a reward for their success, then it should be 1.) May, 2.) Johnson, 3.) Achter, 4.) Pino, 5.) Meyer...

  22. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by BK432 View Post
    This is the point that gets lost far too often. When pitchers are ready, they should be moved up. No point in wasting a lot of these bullets in MiLB.
    But "ready" in whose mind? Ours? Just checking.

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