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Thread: Article: Twins Top 10 Prospects: Post-Draft Edition

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post

    I still do not get what Vargas needs to do to get consideration from certain people. He is hitting .319/.394/.505 in New Britain at an age 1.5 years younger than the average EL age (he is 23). For comparison's sake, Justin Morneau's career line in New Britain was: .293/.351/.475 (most at age 22.)
    I would guess most folks who visit this site are excited about Vargas

    If the #5 pick in the most recent draft isn't in your top ten prospect list well...something was wrong with your pick. And 11 or even 12 on this list isn't a sign Vargas isn't getting consideration. Its just a sign of a system that is stacking up nicely from top to bottom

  2. #22
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    As it pertains to how we rate prospects and Top players as fans........
    Last edited by lightfoot789; 06-11-2014 at 12:12 AM.

  3. #23
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    1) If AB Walker were to hit for 30 HRs and 110+ RBI in the (pitcher friendly) FSL - which he is on pace for (BTW) - But hit only .278 and held an OBP of .300 - Would he crack the Top 10 Prospect Rankings?

    Consider the new draft signees who might replace him in the current standings and also the fact that he is only 22 years old this season.

    2) If you lead the league in HRs and RBI throughout each of your minor league stops (Rookie / A / A+ / AA / AAA) and your teams remain in 1st place at those stops - Would you eventually become a believer? or remain a skeptic because of the OBP?

    3) Does being a winner ever become a factor?

    4) Would Joe Mauer be considered a HOFer if he played 1st base throughout his career considering the other American League 1st basemen throughout his years? Would OBP and Average have been enough for Fans to consider him a STAR? Would his lack of production (HRs & RBI) have hurt him?

  4. #24
    Rosario has played a lot of CF to my knowledge since he returned, is he an insurance policy in the case of injuries? or sub-par play. Santanna is playing his tail off, but we all know he will come back to earth at some point, and we know that Hicks should probably be sent down. As much as I think Rosario could be up, I doubt it until september, and even at that, Is he on the forty man? I can see him being in Rochester at or shortly after the all star break, but that being said it will be in the OF, and second base i think is becoming more of an after thought, with how well Dozier and Escobar and Santanna are playing, Nunez in the fold. I think they feel much more comfortable with keeping him in the OF, yet still giving him time at 2nd.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by lightfoot789 View Post
    1) If AB Walker were to hit for 30 HRs and 110+ RBI in the (pitcher friendly) FSL - which he is on pace for (BTW) - But hit only .278 and held an OBP of .300 - Would he crack the Top 10 Prospect Rankings?

    Consider the new draft signees who might replace him in the current standings and also the fact that he is only 22 years old this season.

    2) If you lead the league in HRs and RBI throughout each of your minor league stops (Rookie / A / A+ / AA / AAA) and your teams remain in 1st place at those stops - Would you eventually become a believer? or remain a skeptic because of the OBP?

    3) Does being a winner ever become a factor?

    4) Would Joe Mauer be considered a HOFer if he played 1st base throughout his career considering the other American League 1st basemen throughout his years? Would OBP and Average have been enough for Fans to consider him a STAR? Would his lack of production (HRs & RBI) have hurt him?
    Three batting titles with .405 OBP and .863 OPS don't exist in any other catcher except Mike Piazza as far as I can think of. I believe it stacks up well with many 1st basemen in the HOF. Rod Carew for example is in the Hall as a 1st baseman. Of course it doesn't stack up very well with Cabrerra but many HOFers don't either. Because of his problems the last couple years people forget just how good Mauer was in the prior decade. His HOF resume would look quite nice if he can put up another 6 years of career average. His OBP, average and OPS are really good so yeah, he was a star. His RBI totals suffered a bit from batting behind the likes of Punto, Casilla, etc. He was really a very good #2 hitter who was just a good #3 hitter. If he doesn't get his game back I would put him more in the Tony Oliva fringe candidate. Still great. Having caught for 8 or so years will only help.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by lightfoot789 View Post
    1) If AB Walker were to hit for 30 HRs and 110+ RBI in the (pitcher friendly) FSL - which he is on pace for (BTW) - But hit only .278 and held an OBP of .300 - Would he crack the Top 10 Prospect Rankings?

    2) If you lead the league in HRs and RBI throughout each of your minor league stops (Rookie / A / A+ / AA / AAA) and your teams remain in 1st place at those stops - Would you eventually become a believer? or remain a skeptic because of the OBP?
    I don't think so because I believe that most people are doing these rankings on perceived future contributions to the MLB club and if Walker can't get on base in A ball, he certainly won't at the MLB level. I'd suspect he'd get eaten alive in AAA in fact.



    Quote Originally Posted by lightfoot789 View Post
    3) Does being a winner ever become a factor?
    Nope. Showing the tools needed to succeed at the MLB level is more important, and he's not doing that. Being able to get on base is probably one of the biggest indicators of upward success. Even if it wasn't, the Twins clearly value it and may hold him back simply for this reason.

    Quote Originally Posted by lightfoot789 View Post
    4) Would Joe Mauer be considered a HOFer if he played 1st base throughout his career considering the other American League 1st basemen throughout his years? Would OBP and Average have been enough for Fans to consider him a STAR? Would his lack of production (HRs & RBI) have hurt him?
    No, but mostly because the other stud 1B also have great OBP skills. Cabrera, Pujols, Fielder, Teixeira, Votto, these guys all get/got on base at a tremendous rate as well.

  7. #27
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by clutterheart View Post

    If the #5 pick in the most recent draft isn't in your top ten prospect list well...something was wrong with your pick.
    And/or your system is deep. I think that both were the case here. The Twins did not pick the best player available. That would be Jackson. Also I don't even think that Gordon is the Twins' too prospect at SS. That would be Polanco. I think that Gordon is a top ten prospect in this system but no way a top five.
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  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by lightfoot789 View Post
    1) If AB Walker were to hit for 30 HRs and 110+ RBI in the (pitcher friendly) FSL - which he is on pace for (BTW) - But hit only .278 and held an OBP of .300 - Would he crack the Top 10 Prospect Rankings?

    Consider the new draft signees who might replace him in the current standings and also the fact that he is only 22 years old this season.

    2) If you lead the league in HRs and RBI throughout each of your minor league stops (Rookie / A / A+ / AA / AAA) and your teams remain in 1st place at those stops - Would you eventually become a believer? or remain a skeptic because of the OBP?

    3) Does being a winner ever become a factor?

    4) Would Joe Mauer be considered a HOFer if he played 1st base throughout his career considering the other American League 1st basemen throughout his years? Would OBP and Average have been enough for Fans to consider him a STAR? Would his lack of production (HRs & RBI) have hurt him?
    1) Walker - probably not. I don't care about OBP that much but the problem it suggests - lack of plate discipline - is something that would probably be fatal to him at AA.

    2) The power is nice but I'd still be worried about plate discipline.

    3) Not really. Lots of players have played on winning teams and not made the majors.

    4) I think he would. People forget how good of a bat he has, period. It wasn't "he's good for a catcher." It was an elite bat. His career OPS+ coming into this season, which doesn't take into account position or league, was as good as or better than many other great hitters, including Teixeira, Howard, Adrian Gonzalez, David Wright, Griffey, Longoria, Kaline, etc. And I think it would be fair to say that his numbers would have been slightly better if he didn't have the wear and tear of catching in those seasons on him - and his counting stats would have been better. I guess that's a long way of saying that Mauer's hitting ability was always HOF caliber regardless of position.

  9. #29
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    [wrong thread]
    Scouting Report: Tools - Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)
    Spring Training Regular since 2011.

  10. #30
    I'd be surprised if the twins didn't have the consensus top ranked farm system after the season. only santana will have for sure graduated from last year's top ten, and possibly meyer.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vervehound View Post
    I'd be surprised if the twins didn't have the consensus top ranked farm system after the season. only santana will have for sure graduated from last year's top ten, and possibly meyer.
    They'll certainly be in the discussion and I think they'll add a prospect or two with deadline trades. Cubs will be in the discussion - Bryant will be a top 4 guy - but they have some disappointing seasons too. Astros will be there but Singleton will graduate, maybe Springer, too. Correa will be a top 4 guy (most likely) but Appel is crapping the bed. But they added Aiken ...

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    They'll certainly be in the discussion and I think they'll add a prospect or two with deadline trades. Cubs will be in the discussion - Bryant will be a top 4 guy - but they have some disappointing seasons too. Astros will be there but Singleton will graduate, maybe Springer, too. Correa will be a top 4 guy (most likely) but Appel is crapping the bed. But they added Aiken ...
    Springer already has graduated and something has to be wrong with Appel, he's looking like a total dud right now. Correa on the other hand, that kid is really good.

    The Cubs will definitely be in the discussion but I think Bryant could graduate. You'd have to think he'll get the call this year if he keeps hitting like Babe Ruth at AA.

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaykay View Post
    Springer already has graduated and something has to be wrong with Appel, he's looking like a total dud right now. Correa on the other hand, that kid is really good.

    The Cubs will definitely be in the discussion but I think Bryant could graduate. You'd have to think he'll get the call this year if he keeps hitting like Babe Ruth at AA.
    Cubs aren't in a hurry to rush him, from what I've read.

    I've been looking at other teams lists and I think the Twins do have the best farm system with the Astros graduations being taken into account.

  14. #34
    BTW, Gordon reminds me of Delino DeShields Jr. Who can play good SS, is that a good comp bat wise?

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfanstreif View Post
    BTW, Gordon reminds me of Delino DeShields Jr. Who can play good SS, is that a good comp bat wise?
    I don't think Gordon is supposed to have that kind of speed, and many think he should have average power at the SS position, which DeShields did not.

    Edit:

    Ah you're talking about his son. Well son and father seem pretty similar.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfanstreif View Post
    BTW, Gordon reminds me of Delino DeShields Jr. Who can play good SS, is that a good comp bat wise?
    Not a good comp. DeShields has moved to CF - had been at second base. Also, DeShields has some makeup concerns that Gordon doesn't.

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Not a good comp. DeShields has moved to CF - had been at second base. Also, DeShields has some makeup concerns that Gordon doesn't.
    I was talking more in terms of bat, speed, bloodlines, I said a SS version. I've never heard of DeShields having makeup concerns. I feel like Gordon's gonna be a .270ish hitter with decent on base and speed and just ok power (around 10 hrs a year). DeShields is pretty much that with probably better speed but not the defensive skills as Gordon

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfanstreif View Post
    I was talking more in terms of bat, speed, bloodlines, I said a SS version. I've never heard of DeShields having makeup concerns. I feel like Gordon's gonna be a .270ish hitter with decent on base and speed and just ok power (around 10 hrs a year). DeShields is pretty much that with probably better speed but not the defensive skills as Gordon
    Here's one thing that notes his makeup concerns but doesn't talk about them: http://milbprospective.mlblogs.com/2...omment-page-1/

    I know BP quoted multiple scouts that had real problems with his makeup and work ethic but I can't find the link.

  19. #39
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    I will end with this: I think Mauer is a HOF as well and warrants HOF consideration. I also think that a player who consistently leads his leagues in HRs and RBI should be considered higher than 15 on a prospect list. The word was he would struggle in the FSL because of plate discipline based on his OBP in the past. He is progressing just like last year and picking his game up as the season moves along. Would Walker be considered a rising prospect if he improved his OBP to .350 like Harrison and only 1 HR thru 60 games? Fans loved Dozier last year with a .312 OBP and a sub .250 BA - because he hit HRs and wasn't close to leading the league.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by lightfoot789 View Post
    I also think that a player who consistently leads his leagues in HRs and RBI should be considered higher than 15 on a prospect list.
    That is why everyone can make their own list! Just as a note, do you think people would have been excited if Dozier had an OBP of .312 in A+ ball? In fact, was anyone excited about Dozier when he was in A+? The numbers offer projections of whom is 'most likely' to succeed, and are not meant to say thatt someone will not succeed. Can you really fault someone for going with the safe picks? However, you (and ABWII) will feel a great sense of pride when he becomes an established big leaguer, knowing that you always held the faith.

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