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Thread: Berrios

  1. #41
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    I am still not convinced that Slama wouldn't have made it in the majors if he had more time which he clearly earned. He may not have been as dominant but I would have liked to see him throw 30 innings instead of 5 to see what he can do over 2 or 3 months.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    More to this than just stat lines? So far, the only "hard evidence" that Klaw has presented on Twins prospects is that Vargas isn't going to make it, because no 300 pound players ever make it. Berrios isn't going to make it, because no 6' tall players ever make it. And he seems to enjoy reveling in being a stubborn and abrasive reactionary about his simplistic stand, instead of strengthening the defense of his positions.
    His concern with Berrios is his flyball rate, which isn't primarily due to his height. In a recent milb.com article, a Twins' minor league coach mentioned that issue as well. It gives Berrios a small margin for error - with his batted ball profile, he needs both a top notch strikeout and walk rate, which I think he can do but gives him a small margin for error.

    Law is quick to change his outlook if a player improves his game in a visible way - he recently had a disagreement with Fangraphs' Dave Cameron over how quickly to toss out prior results when a player shows development.

    Fans get irritated because he doesn't get carried away with a limited stretch of stats. But I don't think any scout tosses out their assessment of player because of that.

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  4. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Gardy thought Meyer should have been in the bullpen coming out of ST. Six weeks ago, Meyer was in all likelihood, the best pitcher in the organization, before Hughes finally started coming on. If Meyer is broken down a bit right now, so be it, it isn't the first time, and won't be the last time that the top pitching prospects bounce between the major and minor leagues. It has nothing to do with "impatience".
    I think you are oversimplifying what Gardy said in ST. Nevertheless, I am not so sure it is a particularly good plan to take a guy who has a potential future as a dominating ace, and shove him into a major league bullpen. Particularly when he has had shoulder issues and needs to work on his secondary pitches. Working out of a bullpen can be just as, perhaps harder on an arm than working as starter. As far as your 2nd point goes, people were clamoring for Meyer after 2 great starts, following a series of mediocre ones. I think that is a bit impatient, considering he was and is on a pitch limit and is still working on a new pitch.

  5. #44
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    Given his age, I would think that the Twins would want to make sure that he has the maturity to handle adversity should he encounter it at the next level. From everything I've heard about him, he does have that maturity but a little more seasoning before his next test may not be a bad thing.

    I think he is probably still on a pretty accelerated pace to move up -- although it may not be quite as accelerated as we would want.

  6. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    His concern with Berrios is his flyball rate, which isn't primarily due to his height. In a recent milb.com article, a Twins' minor league coach mentioned that issue as well. It gives Berrios a small margin for error - with his batted ball profile, he needs both a top notch strikeout and walk rate, which I think he can do but gives him a small margin for error.

    Law is quick to change his outlook if a player improves his game in a visible way - he recently had a disagreement with Fangraphs' Dave Cameron over how quickly to toss out prior results when a player shows development.

    Fans get irritated because he doesn't get carried away with a limited stretch of stats. But I don't think any scout tosses out their assessment of player because of that.
    This is precisely why he needs to be called out in these two instances. Vargas and Berrios have changed and upgraded their games this season in visible ways, yet he re-deploys old bromides to use against them- hard to take him seriously when he obviously thinks giving out flippant answers is an acceptable substitute for what's actually happening developmentally- and in both cases, it isn't a limited stretch of stats.

    Scouts generally agree that other than the majors, AA is the toughest jump- the qualitative improvement in Vargas' numbers , now over the entire first half of the season, suggest it's more than a fluke. Has Vargas completely turned the corner? Nobody knows for sure, but it would be nice for Law to acknowledge the obvious upgrade while playing at such a significant minor league level.

    In the case of Berrios, there's no arguing that he's been a Top 100 prospect from multiple scouting services- well before this season. Their assessments are now appearing to be borne out. I get that FB% is always going to be a concern for Berrios, as it was, no doubt, for Phil Hughes or Yu Darvish at the same developmental stage- this is why I was skeptical on Berrios going into this season. Berrios is in the process of proving us skeptics wrong, as he's demonstrating that there's still enough room with Berrios' improved quality stuff for a margin of error that allows Berrios to carve out a decent MLB career. And there is little left to prove for Berrios at High A about the margin or error issue, time to move up.

  7. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim H View Post
    I think you are oversimplifying what Gardy said in ST. Nevertheless, I am not so sure it is a particularly good plan to take a guy who has a potential future as a dominating ace, and shove him into a major league bullpen. Particularly when he has had shoulder issues and needs to work on his secondary pitches. Working out of a bullpen can be just as, perhaps harder on an arm than working as starter. As far as your 2nd point goes, people were clamoring for Meyer after 2 great starts, following a series of mediocre ones. I think that is a bit impatient, considering he was and is on a pitch limit and is still working on a new pitch.
    TD's own Brad Swanson had this to say on the matter of Gardy and Alex Meyer, based on very public quotes that Gardy made about Meyer before the decision to keep him or cut him was taken out of his hands:

    Meyer impressed many in Spring Training, including Ron Gardenhire, who hinted that he may have wanted to use Meyer in the bullpen from the start of the season.....
    At Meyer's height, he's going to have continued mechanical and health-related issues before he firmly establishes himself. When he's going good, he has elite level stuff. Randy Johnson had a checkered career before he finally hit it big in his late 20s. For example, his K/BB ratios his last 2 minor league seasons were a paltry 1.27 and 1.54. By contrast, Meyer's last two seasons K/BB rates are 2.90 and 2.50, with higher K/9 rates. Johnson led the league in bases on balls, 3 years running, averaging 140 walks during his 3rd, 4th and 5th major league seasons. His BB/9 in AA was 8.2! In AAA, the following year, it was 5.7. Meyer has already demonstrated that that type of wildness is not going to be an issue.

    As far as relief pitching goes, the St Louis Cardinals have shot the theory of endangering starter arms out of the water. Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Carlos Martinez, et al, all put in RP duty as a proving/refining ground before eventually joining the rotation. And have we forgotten Johan Santana's four years of relief duty before becoming a starter?

    As far as the "impatience" issue goes.... It seems like Meyer being on a pitch count suggests that he should be maximizing those pitches while he's fully healthy and going good- at the highest levels, this would seem to be the best strategy to utilize in order to maximize his development.
    Last edited by jokin; 06-21-2014 at 11:56 AM.

  8. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    This is precisely why he needs to be called out in these two instances. Vargas and Berrios have changed and upgraded their games this season in visible ways, yet he re-deploys old bromides to use against them- hard to take him seriously when he obviously thinks giving out flippant answers is an acceptable substitute for what's actually happening developmentally- and in both cases, it isn't a limited stretch of stats.
    Realistically, a chat with hundreds of questions being asked makes it hard to write a full report on every player discussed. I don't think he owes anything special to Twins fans to focus much more on Twins prospects compared to other teams. He has rated the Twins system highly and thinks Berrios is a solid prospect, just not top 100 yet.

    Of course you are free to disagree, but it's not fair to tell a public analyst they can't give any opinion without going into detail. The job wouldn't be possible.

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  10. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivlikejehu View Post
    Realistically, a chat with hundreds of questions being asked makes it hard to write a full report on every player discussed. I don't think he owes anything special to Twins fans to focus much more on Twins prospects compared to other teams. He has rated the Twins system highly and thinks Berrios is a solid prospect, just not top 100 yet.

    Of course you are free to disagree, but it's not fair to tell a public analyst they can't give any opinion without going into detail. The job wouldn't be possible.
    I'm not saying that he can't give any opinion without going into detail. I'm just criticizing, and more importantly, discounting it, particularly when he gives flippant and throwaway responses. He owes me, or any other Twins fan nothing, as we owe him nothing in return.

  11. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I'm not saying that he can't give any opinion without going into detail. I'm just criticizing, and more importantly, discounting it, particularly when he gives flippant and throwaway responses. He owes me, or any other Twins fan nothing, as we owe him nothing in return.
    Fair enough, but his track record is good. He's definitely more credible than most public sources. The reality of prospects is that most don't pan out... it's fine to be optimistic, but if you predict success regularly you will also be incorrect regularly.

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  13. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    TD's own Brad Swanson had this to say on the matter of Gardy and Alex Meyer, based on very public quotes that Gardy made about Meyer before the decision to keep him or cut him was taken out of his hands:



    At Meyer's height, he's going to have continued mechanical and health-related issues before he firmly establishes himself. When he's going good, he has elite level stuff. Randy Johnson had a checkered career before he finally hit it big in his late 20s. For example, his K/BB ratios his last 2 minor league seasons were a paltry 1.27 and 1.54. By contrast, Meyer's last two seasons K/BB rates are 2.90 and 2.50, with higher K/9 rates. Johnson led the league in bases on balls, 3 years running, averaging 140 walks during his 3rd, 4th and 5th major league seasons. His BB/9 in AA was 8.2! In AAA, the following year, it was 5.7. Meyer has already demonstrated that that type of wildness is not going to be an issue.

    As far as relief pitching goes, the St Louis Cardinals have shot the theory of endangering starter arms out of the water. Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Carlos Martinez, et al, all put in RP duty as a proving/refining ground before eventually joining the rotation. And have we forgotten Johan Santana's four years of relief duty before becoming a starter?

    As far as the "impatience" issue goes.... It seems like Meyer being on a pitch count suggests that he should be maximizing those pitches while he's fully healthy and going good- at the highest levels, this would seem to be the best strategy to utilize in order to maximize his development.
    Perhaps you forget that Santana was sent to the minors(after establishing that he was a pretty good relief pitcher) in order to work on his secondary pitches so he could be a starter. I think examples should be examined on a case by case basis. But, it is interesting that you use Johnson as an example since I don't remember him ever being used in relief. I also wonder just how you purpose to use Meyer in relief since he has always been a starter and being mindful of his shoulder issues. Can you use him back to back games as a reliever? Will the change in routine from being a starter effect him at all? Some starters turned relievers mention that this can be a problem. How are you going to help him develop his change up since he won't need it and probably wouldn't use it as a reliever? Which reliever do you purpose to screw over in order to protect the valuable arm of a future dominant starter?

    I think that being used in relief doesn't necessary protect an arm. Liriano pitched out of the bullpen for 2 months before being used as a starter. He still ended up with TJ surgery that year. Interestingly, Hughes maybe an example of how using someone in relief could of slowed his development as a starter. He was brought up to the majors before he had fully developed his secondary pitches. Since he didn't need them as a reliever, he didn't use them when he was a pretty effective reliever. When he went back to starting, one of his issues was he didn't have effective secondary pitches to play off of his fastballs.

    There is no way to know of course, but if Hughes had been left in the minors and worked on his curveball or a change up for another half year or even longer, and then put directly into the rotation-would he of become what he seems to be becoming right now, sooner? I don't know, you don't know but it is interesting speculation. The reason the minors exist is for development. It appears that Meyer has some development to go. As you say, he will need to refine things in the majors, but perhaps a little more development won't hurt him.

  14. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by SD Buhr View Post
    I guess I think the point DocBauer was making is that there are plenty of top-tier starting pitching prospects ahead of Berrios in the pipeline so it's not like there's a need to rush him in order to get him up to the Big Leagues as soon as humanly possible. But that, if he continues to perform like he is this season, he may force his way in to consideration for a Big League rotation spot sooner than any of us expected to be the case.

    It's a compliment to Berrios' efforts. And if he DOES continue to dominate higher levels like he is at A+ and makes it difficult for the Twins to keep him out of their rotation, regardless of how good Gibson, May, Meyer and whoever else might current be ahead of him in the pecking order might be, that would be a "problem" the Twins would welcome.

    Berrios is going to be promoted and I doubt it will be much longer. If I were in Ft Myers, I'd keep an eye out to see when Terry Ryan shows up for a personal look at the Miracle and Berrios in particular. He trusts his scouts, but I think he also likes to see some things for himself (Buxton was promoted at the end of the first series Ryan saw him play in person last year).
    Exactly! Stewart in low A at his age, Berrios at high A for his age is already promoting aggresively. Much more so than has been seen from the Twins before. Once again, in the case of Berrios, at his age, with some decent prospects in the higher levels, you don't have to force the issue. But Berrios himself, continuing with what he's doing, will force the issue and he'll but at New Britain sooner than later.

    If you notice, the Twins haven't been as shy about tinkering with the roster, cutting lose players that don't seem to be doing the job, promoting youngsters, and generally sticking with them. They are not just sitting idly by, content to see what unfolds. And more moves and milb promotions and changes are coming. Some have started. Others will come once July gets here.

    But since pitching other than Berrios has been brought up...Im not concerned with the "old" idea of our staff. It's really sort of a short term illusion. Correia is gone after this season, if not before. Same with Burton and Guerrier almost certainly. Deduno and Pino probably have a decent shot to make the club, probably in a bullpen capacity, but very doubtful both. At least one of May, Meyer or Darnell is in the rotation next season. Overall, the staff will have a younger flavor next season.

    I don't like the idea of Meyer in the bullpen. He's a starter and needs to be treated as such. I know the pitch limit is a bit frustrating for everyone. And perhaps it's being overly protective after his short season last year. But if you are going to error, do it on the side of caution. Now, I know this sounds to be just the opposite of what I previously stated, but could his IP limit also be a means to stretch him out for a full season that no matter what, he could be getting some ML time late in the year? Even if it might be out of the pen, to keep his IP down, but still introduce him to the majors.

  15. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim H View Post
    Perhaps you forget that Santana was sent to the minors(after establishing that he was a pretty good relief pitcher) in order to work on his secondary pitches so he could be a starter. I think examples should be examined on a case by case basis. But, it is interesting that you use Johnson as an example since I don't remember him ever being used in relief. I also wonder just how you purpose to use Meyer in relief since he has always been a starter and being mindful of his shoulder issues. Can you use him back to back games as a reliever? Will the change in routine from being a starter effect him at all? Some starters turned relievers mention that this can be a problem. How are you going to help him develop his change up since he won't need it and probably wouldn't use it as a reliever? Which reliever do you purpose to screw over in order to protect the valuable arm of a future dominant starter?

    I think that being used in relief doesn't necessary protect an arm. Liriano pitched out of the bullpen for 2 months before being used as a starter. He still ended up with TJ surgery that year. Interestingly, Hughes maybe an example of how using someone in relief could of slowed his development as a starter. He was brought up to the majors before he had fully developed his secondary pitches. Since he didn't need them as a reliever, he didn't use them when he was a pretty effective reliever. When he went back to starting, one of his issues was he didn't have effective secondary pitches to play off of his fastballs.

    There is no way to know of course, but if Hughes had been left in the minors and worked on his curveball or a change up for another half year or even longer, and then put directly into the rotation-would he of become what he seems to be becoming right now, sooner? I don't know, you don't know but it is interesting speculation. The reason the minors exist is for development. It appears that Meyer has some development to go. As you say, he will need to refine things in the majors, but perhaps a little more development won't hurt him.
    The use of future starters first as relievers is a new thing- Johnson is similar to Meyer in their size and high velocity, missing 3rd pitch and alleged control issues- so his example begs to be used as a comp- reliever or not. I defer to the success and strategy that the Cardinals and some other teams have had in fast-tracking their best prospects by breaking them in by starting them out in the bullpen. At least that way, you have a shot at getting some good years out of your best prospects at their physical peak and you don't end up- like the Twins are now- with 9 pitchers on a rebuilding team on your staff being over the age of 30- ie, Kyle Gibson is basically a rookie and is the youngest pitcher on the Twins.... and turns 27 in October- yes there were injury issues in his past, but there really isn't a justifiable reason that Gibson didn't start his apprenticeship last May when his arm was fresh, instead of waiting until June 29th.

  16. #53
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    Good points Jokin.

    Sorry if 20 years or so later I can't recall Johnson's experiences in the bullpen. I do recall bouts of great inconsistency as a starter before settling in permanately. Just don't recall being in the pen. I most certainly recall Santana in the pen to begin with, though a portion of that, of course, is because he was a rule 5 pick being kept and sheltered initially.

    I would argue, softly, that there is a difference in Meyer vs Johnson as far as the third pitch arguement you make. Not saying he's on top of it yet, but he seems to have found a chaneup this season that shows great potential. I think Meyer's only real concern/problem is the fact that his 2013 was interrupted, and yet, is in his first season of AAA ball. I think that, and the numbers he's posted, are a great accomplishment. I wish sometimes that fans, so hungry to see the Twins prospects rise to fruition, would cut Meyer and the Twins a little slack in their eagerness/desperation to see him at the ML level. I think Meyer should be thought of much the way Gibson was. Now, there's a big difference between a shoulder strain and TJ surgery! But think about Gibson, compared to Meyer this season, AFTER surgery, building himself up, getting his shot, tiring, inconsistent, but got ML experience, and look what he's done this year.

    As I mentioned in another thread, I'd rather be overly cautious with Meyer than the opposite. And part of me wonders if his pitch and IP limit isn't an attempt to stretch him out for the full season, in order that he get time up with the Twins at some point, either starting, or from the pen, or both, in order to get that ML experience to build toward next season.

  17. #54
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    Marc Hulet at fangraphs had a bit on Berrios -
    Standing (maybe) just 6-foot on the mound, Jose Berrios is far from an imposing figure on the mound — until he unleashing the ball. The Puerto Rico native is enjoying a breakout season after ranking sixth overall in the system entering 2014 and coming in at 93rd overall on the Top 100 prospects in baseball. Currently pitching in High-A ball, the right-hander has struck out 90 batters in 77.1 innings of work while issuing just 21 free passes. His secondary stuff is starting to catch up to his mid-90s heat but he continues to be a fly-ball pitcher. To dominate in the Majors, he’s going to have to find a way to generate a more consistent plane on his offerings.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prosp...ch-al-central/

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    Well, it continues. Tonight 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 hits, 8 K's, 0 BB's. They just must promote him. What can possibly be the reason to hold him back now?

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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    The use of future starters first as relievers is a new thing- Johnson is similar to Meyer in their size and high velocity, missing 3rd pitch and alleged control issues- so his example begs to be used as a comp- reliever or not. I defer to the success and strategy that the Cardinals and some other teams have had in fast-tracking their best prospects by breaking them in by starting them out in the bullpen. At least that way, you have a shot at getting some good years out of your best prospects at their physical peak and you don't end up- like the Twins are now- with 9 pitchers on a rebuilding team on your staff being over the age of 30- ie, Kyle Gibson is basically a rookie and is the youngest pitcher on the Twins.... and turns 27 in October- yes there were injury issues in his past, but there really isn't a justifiable reason that Gibson didn't start his apprenticeship last May when his arm was fresh, instead of waiting until June 29th.
    Using a pitcher in relief before turning him back into a starter, isn't a new thing. Especially back in the day of 4 man staffs. Jim Perry for the Twins spent time in relief before he became a full time starter for the Twins. there are many other examples. All I am trying to say here, is that there shouldn't be a one size fits all approach to this sort of thing. There are circumstances surrounding Meyer that would make me very cautious about shoving him into a major league bullpen. Maybe in September when there are more pitchers and you can more carefully regulate his appearances. Now, I don't know, I just think you keep him at AAA until he is more consistent and it is clear the shoulder issues are behind him.

    I am a little unsure about your point of old pitchers on the Twins staff. Most of that is a result of several years of pitching prospects washing out in the minors, getting injured, or failing to perform at the major league level. I don't think the Twins really wanted to have to buy a staff of free agents. They largely had no choice.

    I believe that Meyer, May and Darnell have futures as major league starters. I am unsure if any of them are past the developmental stage, but clearly they are all close to major league ready. I expect to see them in the majors soon, in one role or another. Soon, may not be as soon as many fans would like, but I am hoping for long careers from all of them. I don't look at it as bullets being wasted in the minors, more as perfecting their craft.

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  21. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim H View Post
    Using a pitcher in relief before turning him back into a starter, isn't a new thing. Especially back in the day of 4 man staffs. Jim Perry for the Twins spent time in relief before he became a full time starter for the Twins. there are many other examples. All I am trying to say here, is that there shouldn't be a one size fits all approach to this sort of thing. There are circumstances surrounding Meyer that would make me very cautious about shoving him into a major league bullpen. Maybe in September when there are more pitchers and you can more carefully regulate his appearances. Now, I don't know, I just think you keep him at AAA until he is more consistent and it is clear the shoulder issues are behind him.

    I am a little unsure about your point of old pitchers on the Twins staff. Most of that is a result of several years of pitching prospects washing out in the minors, getting injured, or failing to perform at the major league level. I don't think the Twins really wanted to have to buy a staff of free agents. They largely had no choice.

    I believe that Meyer, May and Darnell have futures as major league starters. I am unsure if any of them are past the developmental stage, but clearly they are all close to major league ready. I expect to see them in the majors soon, in one role or another. Soon, may not be as soon as many fans would like, but I am hoping for long careers from all of them. I don't look at it as bullets being wasted in the minors, more as perfecting their craft.
    I'm well aware of how things were done in the old days with pitchers. My reference was to the modern era of highly specialized roles for pitchers. The Cardinals and others have taken a different approach, and have pushed their most talented, and obviously future starter prospects, into short-term major league relief roles, and gained some success with it, and importantly, without creating huge injury issues.

    On the issue of old pitchers. The Twins now have a bevy of pitchers in AAA and AA knocking on the door. The FO did have a choice, and still have a choice. How is it even possible that the Yankees have one-third of the 30+ veterans that the Twins are currently rostering?

    As we saw in 2011, an aging staff can suddenly collapse due to age and injury. Have the Twins forgotten what that was like already? There are clearly now multiple pitchers in AA and AA who are being blocked by nine, count them, nine 30+ year old guys, most of whom won't be around the next time the Twins are serious contenders. Valuable developmental innings are being lost to the likes of Jarod Burton, who should have been dealt after 2012- because that's what a rebuilding team does with aging vets.

    That leads into "craft perfection", while Meyer appears to now have significant shoulder issues, he didn't in May, and it's arguable that he would have benefited more from getting 10 innings in a relief role with the Twins. If anything, he might have staved off the shoulder issues that appear to have set in again as a full-time starter in Rochester. Meanwhile, May has taken a back seat to 3 other lesser prospects in terms of getting a major league look-see. What was it that merited Darnell, Johnson and Pino- three guys with clearly a much lesser chance of being part of the long-term solution- of getting a shot before May and Meyer?
    Last edited by jokin; 06-23-2014 at 08:56 PM.

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  23. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ncgo4 View Post
    Well, it continues. Tonight 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 hits, 8 K's, 0 BB's. They just must promote him. What can possibly be the reason to hold him back now?
    Because it's one start?

    Honestly, with the pitch count and everything else going on, I really don't think he's in Minnesota until September.

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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Because it's one start?

    Honestly, with the pitch count and everything else going on, I really don't think he's in Minnesota until September.
    That's the line for the guy this thread is about, not Meyer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaykay View Post
    That's the line for the guy this thread is about, not Meyer.
    yep my bad... As for Berrios, I fully expect him moving up shortly. It's really a question of who they get rid of.

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