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Thread: How close do we need to be a month from now?

  1. #21
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Did you miss the part where I said "While that's true"? Yes, you need good pitching. The point is that if you think you add Cliff Lee you get an ace might be true sometimes (2009 Phils) and sometimes you might not. (Philly 2011 or Texas in the WS 2010)

    The point is that while you need good pitching, the odds of who is going to give you that good pitching is a crap shoot. Which is precisely "anything can happen".
    The only pitcher on your list that did not have a very good to great regular season was Lewis.

  2. #22
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wise One View Post
    The only pitcher on your list that did not have a very good to great regular season was Lewis.
    The point is that none of those unexpected best pitchers were the best pitchers on their team. JB's point was that the playoffs are not about "anything can happen" and that just isn't true. Aces choke every year. Former Japan-guys like Vogelsong and Lewis go ace-mode.

    While it's true that good pitching is necessary, it comes in all sorts of forms and rarely predictable. The playoffs truly become an "anything can happen" situation.

  3. #23
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    The point is that none of those unexpected best pitchers were the best pitchers on their team. JB's point was that the playoffs are not about "anything can happen" and that just isn't true. Aces choke every year. Former Japan-guys like Vogelsong and Lewis go ace-mode.

    While it's true that good pitching is necessary, it comes in all sorts of forms and rarely predictable. The playoffs truly become an "anything can happen" situation.
    You still have to get there.

    And once you do, having an ace and a couple guys who might perform like one for a short time is better than just hoping someone steps up, IMO.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  4. #24
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    While it's true that good pitching is necessary, it comes in all sorts of forms and rarely predictable. The playoffs truly become an "anything can happen" situation.
    But even if it comes from somewhere unexpected, it doesn't happen if you don't have good pitching. And frankly, while it may occasionally come from somewhere unexpected, it rarely comes as a complete surprise.

  5. #25
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post
    But even if it comes from somewhere unexpected, it doesn't happen if you don't have good pitching. And frankly, while it may occasionally come from somewhere unexpected, it rarely comes as a complete surprise.
    This is purely hindsight. Vogelsong going Maddux for the Giants was absolutely a surprise. Look up and down the past WS winners and you will find scrubs turned heroes. Aces and all-stars with garbage performances.

    The very nature of playoff performances are a small sample size which, by the very nature of small sample sizes, are prone to all sorts of wonky results. Which, frequently, results in all sorts of unexpected things happening. Basically, if you don't believe that the playoffs are "anything can happen" then you might as well put stock in small sample sizes too.

    Chief is right, the regular season is easier to plan for and team building for that is important, but there are a lot of ways to skin that cat.

  6. #26
    The Twins sell pretty much no matter what.

    Willingham is not worth the extension, unless it is a SWEETHEART deal. Yes, it is nice to have an older DH who can play another position. But if the Twins can get something decent in return, and because he can play a position, he will be a candidate for trade.

    Correia you should be marketing right now and hope (pray) that he doesn't pull a string of bad starts. He is replaceable. Heck, if Nolesco starts to shine and you can get out from under his contract for a good prospect or two, I would do it, too.

    Suzuki is interesting. You need someone to catch, not just catch. The Twins would be doomed with Fryer and Pinto/Herrmann backing him up for the rest of the season. Yes, Pinto could be the future. Playing everyday behind-the-plate NOW is good for him and the Twins. Suzucki could be traded up thru August depending on who would lay a waiver claim on him and if a deal could be worked out. Again, don't see him in the plans for beyond this season. If you need another veteran catcher, you gop out and find one in 2015.

    The Twins have numerous bargaining chips in the bullpen. No one wants Burton, but who knows...package him with another player and maybe you get something. Duensing has no worth to the Twins as a short man, sorry. If he can pitch 2-3 innings consistently, then maybe he is worth next year's arbitration. But he has value right now as a lefty out of the pen and dangle him. Swarzak is not necessary long-term either. Will egt too expensive. Could be replaced by Pressley. Or maybe Deduno. Or possibly Pino. Thielbar still works and is under control (Duensing light). You have so many arms in the minors right now: Oliveros, Tonkin, Achter, Guerra, Iberra, Kris Johnson, Logan Darnell, just to name a few, that can rotate in and probably hold their own in relief. Heck, you can resign Albers next year!

    The Twins also have to address the need to keep Nunez, what to do about Florimon and Parmelee (Parmelee and Burton for someone, anyone).

    No one, I repeat no one, will bring stellar minor league guys (Top 10 from a team). You might be able to swing someone possibly going off the 40-man of another team (which is a risk...keep them or lose them).

    But all of this is pending if the Twins would be willing to give nams like Rosario, Romero, Vargas, even Kepler and Burton shots on the major league roster before the season ends, and if the Twins will settle for a 70 or so win season.

    Even in the hunt, like now, five games behind and five games under...they should sell and go with youth and play for the future. Unless Detroit totally collapses, the Twins aren't making the playoffs.
    Joel Thingvall
    www.thingvall.com
    rosterman at www.twinscards.com

  7. #27
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    The Twins will do nothing at the trade deadline like every year. Maybe they make a minor trade of a veteran for a 28 year old career AAAA bull pen arm. The team isn't good enough to go all in but it also isn't bad enough to blow it up.

  8. #28
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Kirby_Waved_At_Me's Avatar
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    I could see the Twins still in the race near the deadline (say, within 5 games of the AL central lead) and be "Buyers" while still trading away some combo of Correia, Willingham or Morales, Duensing or [name your bullpen arm not named Perkins].
    I think Kevin Correia in particular is just sticking around as long as he's building trade value once July rolls around.

  9. #29
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    Most recent trades at the deadline are for marginal prospects. They will involve relievers or corner players, players with a lot of money left or rentals. The supply of these kinds of players is larger and the return is small.

    The players that get the best return in trade have positional value. Starting catchers, shortstops, center fielders and middle to the top of the rotation starting pitchers. They get the good return. It is difficult to make trades when you don't have the assets that get a good return.

    So much has been made of the Twins failing to trade Willingham at the 2012 deadline. If you look at the trades that summer, there were few trades where the other team would have taken Willingham. The best return for a corner player involved Hunter Pence. Would the Giants have taken Willingham over Hunter Pence? It was reported earlier that spring that Willingham wasn't comfortable in RF. Playing RF at AT&T is very difficult. If the Giants had the option, they certainly chose the right player. The good prospect in the Pence deal was Tommy Joseph. He is not a top 100 guy and is in AA two years after the trade and struggling in AAA last year. So maybe the Twins missed out on Tommy Joseph. It is hard to blame the organization for sticking with Willingham.

    If the Twins become sellers this year, they will have little to trade as they have little the previous few years. Fans will be disappointed. It would be so nice to acquire a player like Jean Segura or Nate Eovaldi. It takes a Zach Grienke or Hanley Ramirez to get that return.

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