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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by zenser View Post
    Either one would be fine. They are not part of the solution and won't be part of the solution in a couple of years. Theilbar has done nothing wrong to get sent down.
    Since when has that stopped the Twins from making such a decision?

  2. #22
    Senior Member Double-A zenser's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Since when has that stopped the Twins from making such a decision?
    Good point.

  3. #23
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HansGruber View Post
    It's not exactly cherry picking stats it's removing outliers which is what should be done in statistical analysis. That being said, a mid 4 era for a reliever is awful and the conclusion is the same, Burton is done and should be the first to go.

    Along those lines, I wasn't happy with the Guerrier call up but now that he's here and performing okay I don't see the need to dump him when there are worse performers like Swarzak and Burton still on the roster. Same for Theilbar.
    It only makes sense to remove outliers in large statistical samples. Relievers rarely if ever compile large enough statistical samples to make this work. Bert talks about relievers' ERA like you really can't count on it because one bad outing can skew it a lot. There is some truth to that. But when you only have a few outings, one bad one is meaningful. In Burton's case, he has had almost as many bad outings as good ones. There were several in a row where he got two outs, walked a couple of guys, and gave up a homer or a bases clearing double or something. He's been a little better of late. But he is definitely showing signs of the league figuring out his change. When that happens. he's D-O-N-E. I think he's on the brink, if not there already. Guerrier has been equally inconsistent and mostly bad. Neither really deserves a spot on the roster. I would be happy to get rid of both and call up one of the stud relievers down on the farm in addition to Pino, Ryan Pressley, for example.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by zenser View Post
    Either one would be fine. They are not part of the solution and won't be part of the solution in a couple of years. Theilbar has done nothing wrong to get sent down.
    This is a great point. The team needs to look at who will be parts of the solution in a year or even more likely 2 years, it is likely most would agree that neither Guerrier or Burton are part of even next years team. Thus someone like Tonkin or Pressly make much more sense than than either Guerrier or Burton.

    Also, love the picture zenser.

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  6. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Thielbar has a .531 OPS against lefties, which is pretty amazing. He is also been pretty good against righties (.613 OPS). We have used him 34 IP against lefties and 35 against righties, so I think that reflects that we use him against lefties but we are not afraid against righties (more hitters are right handed).

    His FIP this year is about the same as his ERA, last year his FIP of 3.40 was much higher than his 1.75 ERA. BABIP was .175 last year, .239 this year. He certainly had some luck last year and maybe a bit this year. The HR rate has always been low. I would find other people to option or DFA though. To CMAT's point, he is the closest thing we have to a lefty specialist.
    To be clear, I wasn't advocating on dumping Theilbar. My point was that Theilbar and Guerrier have performed well thus far so there isn't a reason to dump them over more obvious candidates. A low BABIP doesn't necessarily mean good luck it could be a sign of a hitters inability to square up on pitches thus hitting directly at players though Thielbars extreme flyball tendencies are a slight cause for concern.

  7. #26
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    I feel like it be the easiest move for the Twins to just move Pelf to the 60 day DL, it would be retroactive to when he first went on the DL anyway, so he wouldn't have that much longer on the DL either way.

    This unfortunately keeps Burton on the team.

  8. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    It only makes sense to remove outliers in large statistical samples. Relievers rarely if ever compile large enough statistical samples to make this work. Bert talks about relievers' ERA like you really can't count on it because one bad outing can skew it a lot. There is some truth to that. But when you only have a few outings, one bad one is meaningful. In Burton's case, he has had almost as many bad outings as good ones. There were several in a row where he got two outs, walked a couple of guys, and gave up a homer or a bases clearing double or something. He's been a little better of late. But he is definitely showing signs of the league figuring out his change. When that happens. he's D-O-N-E. I think he's on the brink, if not there already. Guerrier has been equally inconsistent and mostly bad. Neither really deserves a spot on the roster. I would be happy to get rid of both and call up one of the stud relievers down on the farm in addition to Pino, Ryan Pressley, for example.
    When I wrote that I was under the impression that it was one outing of 7 runs given up which in roughly 30 innings appears as an obvious outlier. It was actually over two outings( 3 and 4 runs) which does not make it such an obvious outlier considering he has had multiple run performances scattered throughout the year.

  9. #28
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kdrupp09 View Post
    I feel like it be the easiest move for the Twins to just move Pelf to the 60 day DL, it would be retroactive to when he first went on the DL anyway, so he wouldn't have that much longer on the DL either way.

    This unfortunately keeps Burton on the team.
    That almost certainly will happen, however, they'll also have to make a move to take someone off the 25-man. If we have a rainout and the game is made up this weekend, the team could use Pino as the 26th man. Then they would have the option to send him back to Rochester (if he bombed) without sending someone else out. If they want him to make more than one start, that plan gets much muddier. Who knows? Maybe Perk ends up on the DL.

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  11. #29
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    I think they are waiting for the rainout, just to kick the can down the street a bit. But they might also be waiting for a DFA to work it's way through the system prior to announcing it.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  12. #30
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    Given the weather situation, they'd be crazy to make a roster move until they absolutely know whether tonight's game is going to be played (or at least started). If it's not, Pino might not even be the starter they decide to promote. If they don't make the game up with a doubleheader this weekend, they wouldn't necessarily even need to promote anybody until the next time Deduno's spot comes up in the rotation.

    Covering the Cedar Rapids Kernels for
    MetroSportsReport.comwhile my alter-ego, Jim Crikket, opines about the Twins and Kernels at Knuckleballsblog.com.

    ~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~

  13. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by SD Buhr View Post
    Given the weather situation, they'd be crazy to make a roster move until they absolutely know whether tonight's game is going to be played (or at least started). If it's not, Pino might not even be the starter they decide to promote. If they don't make the game up with a doubleheader this weekend, they wouldn't necessarily even need to promote anybody until the next time Deduno's spot comes up in the rotation.

    Given how short-handed the Twins are and reeling... and with the Sox coming back in July....with a mutual open date on Monday, July 28, it seems logical to call tonight's game.

    Dave St. Peter @TwinsPrez · 52m


    Depends if / when storms re-develop RT @gadfly2727: any idea when we’ll know if it’s gonna be played or not.

  14. #32
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer amjgt's Avatar
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    We've been using this "he's not part of the future" line for a couple years now, and I think it's just about time to stop using it. The Twins have shown to be relatively competitive this year and the future is close enough at this point that I'm done thinking that way.

    More importantly, however, very few moves the Twins have done this year show that they in "he's not part of the future" mode, so I would be very surprised if they do transactions based on it.

  15. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sconnie View Post
    Ehhhh, I'd tread carefully. Thrylos knows his/hers stuff. Do I know Thrylos well enough to know gender? No. Do I know well enough to trust statistical analysis? Yes.

    besides, you're using conventional wisdom for starters on a releiver. His xFIP suggests his BABIP will regress to the mean and his ERA will balloon. It's not a week or month hot streak, true, but he has a total of 76 appearances in the bigs. Far too small to trust over math.
    Thyrlos will cherry pick his stats like anyone else here does to provide support for his position. The math that Thyrlos cites come from the sample size you just called small. What does that make the math then but inaccurate?

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  17. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by amjgt View Post
    We've been using this "he's not part of the future" line for a couple years now, and I think it's just about time to stop using it. The Twins have shown to be relatively competitive this year and the future is close enough at this point that I'm done thinking that way.

    More importantly, however, very few moves the Twins have done this year show that they in "he's not part of the future" mode, so I would be very surprised if they do transactions based on it.
    We are definitely in two different places. I don't see this team as a playoff team. I think we have out-performed to get where we are and we are on pace for 74 wins. 6.5 games may seem "close", but 6.5 games behind four teams, a few of which are clearly better is a long ways. I expect the gap to grow, not tighten.

    If you believe this is not a playoff team, I think it is prudent to look at 33 and 35 year old players on their last year and move them. If you aren't there I respect that though.

  18. #35
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer amjgt's Avatar
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    I guess I just feel like there is value in getting 76 wins this year rather than 68.

    The logical part of me knows that there is value in only getting 68 wins in terms of better draft picks, more money for international free agents, and only giving up a 2nd round pick for a QO player instead of a 1st round pick.

    But at some point we just need to be competitive again before we can be good again. I feel like this year could be the year we are competitive. With the unfortunate injuries to our best prospects, it could be that next year also has to be a "competitive" year, with the "good" year coming in 2016.

    Does it make organizational sense to be as good as possible this year? Probably not. But I'm ready to not suck.

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  20. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by amjgt View Post
    I guess I just feel like there is value in getting 76 wins this year rather than 68.

    The logical part of me knows that there is value in only getting 68 wins in terms of better draft picks, more money for international free agents, and only giving up a 2nd round pick for a QO player instead of a 1st round pick.

    But at some point we just need to be competitive again before we can be good again. I feel like this year could be the year we are competitive. With the unfortunate injuries to our best prospects, it could be that next year also has to be a "competitive" year, with the "good" year coming in 2016.

    Does it make organizational sense to be as good as possible this year? Probably not. But I'm ready to not suck.
    Pro's and con's each way certainly. For me trading these guys is more about getting players reps that are going to be here next year and need to be developed (versus what we can expect in return).

  21. #37
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by amjgt View Post
    I guess I just feel like there is value in getting 76 wins this year rather than 68.

    The logical part of me knows that there is value in only getting 68 wins in terms of better draft picks, more money for international free agents, and only giving up a 2nd round pick for a QO player instead of a 1st round pick.

    But at some point we just need to be competitive again before we can be good again. I feel like this year could be the year we are competitive. With the unfortunate injuries to our best prospects, it could be that next year also has to be a "competitive" year, with the "good" year coming in 2016.

    Does it make organizational sense to be as good as possible this year? Probably not. But I'm ready to not suck.
    I don't think removing Burton or Guerrier is about whether they are part of the future. Relievers come and go so fast, age is not really a huge issue. For the present, we can win more games with other pitchers in the organization, imho. That is why I would want to make those moves. If the new guys are younger, all the better.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  22. #38
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer amjgt's Avatar
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    I'm about to contradict myself a little...

    I have no problem trading our guys if that moves us down a few wins.
    It's the DFA, 25-man, and 40-man and AAA vs Majors moves that I'm talking about no longer wanting to be governed by "he's not part of our future"

  23. #39
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer amjgt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I don't think removing Burton or Guerrier is about whether they are part of the future. Relievers come and go so fast, age is not really a huge issue. For the present, we can win more games with other pitchers in the organization, imho. That is why I would want to make those moves. If the new guys are younger, all the better.
    It was framed as "not part of the future", though.

    I totally agree with you that there are guys who could be called up right now that will do a better job than those two guys. And, frankly, they probably aren't being called up right now because management feels as though leaving them at AAA for now actually benefit's their futures

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    Nunez to DL - Pelfrey to 60-day answers the question just announced

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