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Thread: Twins' Trade Bait and Why the Twins Should Sell

  1. #81
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    if you want to say it never was said/written then that is your prerogative.
    I question when it was said. That chatter is out there for the 2012 offseason, not for July. Your evidence is of low demand but multiple and varied reports say demand was high. The Twins just weren't letting the supply out.

  2. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Show me. I can't find that. I find a little of that when they start talking the offseason after 2012, but NOTHING about that at the July deadline that year. Everything I read says there were suitors lined up for him but the Twins demands basically scared people away out of their ridiculousness or flat-out refusal to talk about him.

    I keep producing evidence, it'd be swell if some of you would start to suggest some counter-evidence you claim exists.
    What do you think his trade value was in 2012 and what do you think it is now? Is it substantially different in your view? I don't think it is. Right now, his RH power and strong OBP is still the hardest thing to find in baseball and a team could jump on that in the home stretch. I think at least some teams will find him more enticing if they don't have to commit several more years and several more million to him.

  3. #83
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    What do you think his trade value was in 2012 and what do you think it is now? Is it substantially different in your view? I don't think it is. Right now, his RH power and strong OBP is still the hardest thing to find in baseball and a team could jump on that in the home stretch. I think at least some teams will find him more enticing if they don't have to commit several more years and several more million to him.
    It may help to go back and look at just how ridiculously Hammer was producing at July 31st 2012. His value now is nowhere near that IMO. (Also, 7M a season for two years wasn't holding back his value then)

  4. #84
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    What do you think his trade value was in 2012 and what do you think it is now? Is it substantially different in your view? I don't think it is. Right now, his RH power and strong OBP is still the hardest thing to find in baseball and a team could jump on that in the home stretch. I think at least some teams will find him more enticing if they don't have to commit several more years and several more million to him.
    For good or bad, GMs have weird trade deadline habits.

    Josh Willingham had 2 1/2 years on his contract and was available as a FA just six months previous to that deadline. GMs seem reluctant to offer value for that kind of contract, the same way they seem to be reluctant to offer value for any player with 1+ years on their contract at the deadline. GMs seem willing to overpay for expiring contracts but we just don't see many long-term contracts swapped at the deadline.

    I'm not making excuses for not trading Willingham. I don't know what the offers were and what Ryan asked in return but it's a mistake to look at a 2+ year contract at the deadline and expect a fair return. It just doesn't seem to happen that way.

    Personally, I think it's really dumb.

  5. #85
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Speaking only to Morales, I have to think that one of the conversations that was had with him during the negotiations was that if the Twins are out of it, he may be traded. It's a 1 year deal. If it wasn't, there's some serious oversight somewhere. Morales may have made it clear he wants to finish out the season and TR may have said OK, or Morales may have said go ahead and trade me in that situation... we don't know. the lack of a NTC tells me that he's fine going to a contender if he's playing well.
    I agree. From Christina Kahrl on ESPN:

    Which brings us to why signing with the Twins might especially make sense for Morales, without knowing about how much money was in play. Say the Twins fall entirely out of the race -- if that happens, they’re an obvious seller at the deadline, and Morales could look forward to being dealt to a team in a stronger position in the standings. Rather than pick a contender and hope for the best, signing with the longshot team provides him with a chance there, and potentially a chance to be dealt to an even better opportunity to return to the postseason in two months. Considering Morales hasn’t played any October baseball since 2009, it’s not the worst gambit for a guy who has already lost so much of this season to taking a bad risk on his value on the open market as a free agent.

    Have to think that Morales and Boras discussed this very possibility (and probably discussed it with the Twins).

  6. #86
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    Do we need to be sellers if we are 6 games back? Why not try to win a bunch of games for the heck of it and decide in the offseason who we want to keep and if we loose a player in the offseason for nothing then so be it.

  7. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandon View Post
    Do we need to be sellers if we are 6 games back? Why not try to win a bunch of games for the heck of it and decide in the offseason who we want to keep and if we loose a player in the offseason for nothing then so be it.
    Were they not trying to win a bunch of games against Boston? If they were, they failed miserably which isn't good indicator for the rest of the season. If they weren't, well then we have a whole different problem.

    Willingham, Suzuki and Morales are all free agents after this season. The Twins don't get to decide in the offseason who they get to keep. At that point, the decision is up to the player.

  8. #88
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Were they not trying to win a bunch of games against Boston? If they were, they failed miserably which isn't good indicator for the rest of the season. If they weren't, well then we have a whole different problem.
    Failed miserably? That is a little much, it was extremely frustrating no doubt, but let's not act like the Twins got blown out every game. They went against 3 very good pitchers who shut them down, it happens (it sucks no doubt, but it happens). Heck if Perkins wasn't "sick" yesterday and Doizer gets a base hit in the 8th on Monday, then the Twins win that series, but that is baseball.
    "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"- L. Harvey Oswald


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  10. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smcginnity View Post
    Yesterday I looked at the standings and although we are only 6.5 games out of first, that could be 10+ in less than a week the way the Royals are playing. Also, we are 7th worst in all of MLB according to record.

    So, if we become sellers, who goes? I would assume Morales is definitely gone. Suzuki is a nice trade chip. Willingham could get a decent AA or High-A player. The way Correia is pitching the last couple starts, he may fetch a decent prospect too. So, here's what I got:

    Morales - Yes (unless he has a no trade clause?)
    Suzuki - Maybe (depends how much they value him for next year over Pinto)
    Willingham - Yes (this is obvious)
    Correia - If someone comes hunting for him, then absolutely Yes

    Who else from there? Nunez? Fien? Burton? Plouffe? Hicks? Diamond?

    It will be interesting if we are in a sell-mode because we have LOTS to get rid of to open spots for youngsters.

    What is Nunez contract status? Arb eligible? Options?

  11. #90
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Failed miserably? That is a little much, it was extremely frustrating no doubt, but let's not act like the Twins got blown out every game. They went against 3 very good pitchers who shut them down, it happens (it sucks no doubt, but it happens). Heck if Perkins wasn't "sick" yesterday and Doizer gets a base hit in the 8th on Monday, then the Twins win that series, but that is baseball.
    Maybe it's just me but I walked away from the Boston series with a positive outlook. Was it frustrating? Absolutely... but playing that team straight-up in Boston and shutting down their offense bodes well for the rest of the season.

    Hitting is up and down. Pitching is what wins games over the course of a season. If the pitching has turned the corner, that's a much better sign of what's to come than the offense stumbling through three games on the road and losing three close games.

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  13. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I question when it was said. That chatter is out there for the 2012 offseason, not for July. Your evidence is of low demand but multiple and varied reports say demand was high. The Twins just weren't letting the supply out.
    I looked for info on Willingham 2012 as well. Most articles had interest as high but no mention of what was really being offered. The following link does highlight the notion that they weren't going to get a high level prospect for him though.

    http://paullebowitz.wordpress.com/ta...sh-willingham/

    Hard to say what his exact value was then but if he has a good year this year his value should technically be higher because the contract is only through this year. If the Twins still get something for him this year all is not lost. If he under performs then his value goes down but that is the risk of keeping older players.

  14. #92
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Maybe it's just me but I walked away from the Boston series with a positive outlook. Was it frustrating? Absolutely... but playing that team straight-up in Boston and shutting down their offense bodes well for the rest of the season.
    The pitching has been rolling very well, but Boston's offense isn't a high measuring stick. They're 8th worst in RS this season. We also happened to catch Toronto during a particularly good time.

    So we need to see it keep going, but I wouldn't draw any huge conclusions from this road trip.

  15. #93
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dman View Post
    I looked for info on Willingham 2012 as well. Most articles had interest as high but no mention of what was really being offered. The following link does highlight the notion that they weren't going to get a high level prospect for him though.

    http://paullebowitz.wordpress.com/ta...sh-willingham/

    Hard to say what his exact value was then but if he has a good year this year his value should technically be higher because the contract is only through this year. If the Twins still get something for him this year all is not lost. If he under performs then his value goes down but that is the risk of keeping older players.
    At least that's something. Even still it seems like speculation. I have trouble believing there would be high demand and the best you could get is roughly equivalent of what we did for Drew Butera. That strains credulity.

    It seems more likely that Ryan put him on "Available...but only if you're out of your damn mind" status and it never went anywhere.

  16. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    At least that's something. Even still it seems like speculation. I have trouble believing there would be high demand and the best you could get is roughly equivalent of what we did for Drew Butera. That strains credulity.

    It seems more likely that Ryan put him on "Available...but only if you're out of your damn mind" status and it never went anywhere.
    Most of the stuff I read was wishy washy about him truly being available. It seems you might be correct that the FO was only interested in an "unreal" desperation offer that never came.

    At the time I didn't want them to trade him. We needed right handed power and had found someone for decent money to handle that. It seemed foolish to me to give that away so soon. Then came 2013 and now I think differently. Hindsight is 20/20. Hopefully they still get something decent for him this year.

  17. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by strumdatjag View Post
    Correia and Willingham are trade-able. It would be crazy to trade Hughes, Morales and Suzuki.

    I see the guys that would get something in value as next to off-limits (Hughes, Dozier, Perkins, etc.). I am on board with keeping these guys.

    I think you have Josh, Corriea, Suzuki, several bullpen guys, and maybe Morales. I am not overly optimstic about getting anything of value at this point for any of them except for Morales if he gets hot.

    Willingham has played in 29 games this year and is a complete liability defensively. I think we had to make several calls after Corriea's 4.18 ERA last year and we didn't like what we heard then, I don't see how that would be better now. With respect to Correia and the bullpen guys like Guerrier, Fien, and Burton....I think we would be better off trading them now and bringing up the likes of Meyer, May, Tonkin, Achter, etc. I don't see the market for these guys changing drastically from June 19th to July 31st.

    Look back at Kyle Gibson last year. He got in 100 IP, got hit around pretty good and now the jitters are gone and he knew what adjustments he had to make. I would rather get that season out of the way this year with our good prospects this year. That is where the value to this organization will be, over waiting for some bonanza for a bunch of mostly mid-level at best MLB players. The players that aren't mid-level have fleas (injuries, haven't played in 3 months, etc).

  18. #96
    Great discussion here. I don't think I can add anything to what's been said about Willingham's trade status in 2012, and I'm not sure how the question gets resolved in any event.

    I am surprised, however, that some folks have been willing to include Suzuki in the "expendable" category. Although he's on a one year contract, I don't know what we're left with if we trade him. I personally don't think Pinto is ready defensively to handle a major league staff full time. I think Suzuki should be given at least a little credit for the pitching staff's recent success. In addition, I'm not as sure as some are about Pinto's hitting ability. Maybe he was just in a little slump before he got sent down recently, but I have to entertain the possibility that the mlb scouts and mlb pitchers had caught up to him somewhat and may have found a flaw in his swing. In any event, he is valuable enough that I don't want the Twins to do to him what's been done to Hicks and give him the job before he's ready to take it. And, if they trade Suzuki and Pinto gets injured, what then? Are we really ready to endure the rest of the season with Fryer and Hermann behind the plate? I'm not. The memories of trading Wilson Ramos and Mauer getting injured are just too fresh in my mind.

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  20. #97
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    The return will for their veteran corner players or relievers will not look exciting and certain to be criticized. They still need to make the trades. I would look for guys 23 and younger that play SS, CF, C or SP and have been at least 2 years younger than their leagues. They won't have good numbers otherwise they would be a good prospect. They will have the upside of age and positional value.

    I hope they can get a little more for Suzuki. They can get above value if other catchers join Weiters on the disabled list.

  21. #98
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    We're really re-hashing some old history with this Willingham debate. Regardless of what we think the Twins could or should have done, how many examples exist of trading a player 3 months in to a 3+ year contract? I can't think of any and couldn't find any that stood out in searching through mlbtraderumor's transaction tracker. The real world of GMs doesn't support this fan/fantasy baseball/commodity perspective.

    On the original post, moving Willingham or Morales would be fine. I'm less sold on moving Suzuki -- this Twins just sent Pinto down to work on defense, so I don't see how moving Suzuki in the next few weeks and plugging in Pinto full-time is going to fly... not to mention the lack of depth it would cause. On Hughes, I'll echo the general sentiment... no -- barely into a multi-year contract, can contribute to the next winning team, and GMs just aren't dumb enough to assume he's now a #1/#2 forever and pay the price for that.

  22. #99
    Senior Member Double-A MWLFan's Avatar
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    Sad that we are having this conversation again. It is becoming a ritual. That being said. A lot of good viewpoints and passion as always on the Twins Daily site around this. Here is one scenario I will throw out, but there are many others. I call it go young! First I would not touch Hughes. If he could become what was expected of him as a Prospect, odds against it but not out of the realm of possibility, we have a cheap Ace for a few years with Gibson, Meyers and May ready to go asap and Berrios, Stewart and others on the horizon. The adage is you can never have enough good pitching and it is hard to find and devil to replace. So shore up the Bullpen and look for young hitting. That means Willingham, Morales, Suzuki, and yes Dozier are all in play for me. Willingham and Morales are not much of a thought for me. They are luxuries that a last place team does not need. Bring up Danny Ortiz and or Wilkin Ramirez and let them finish of the season with Fuld/Hicks/ Rosario in Center. (Anyone know WTF is up with Buxton, the guy has dropped off the web radar.) Suzuki is one I balk at. Pinto at this point is a liabilty behind the plate that could diminsh the strength of the team, starting pitching. (god that was weird to write.). We have no replacement available at AAA or AA ball. Turner is at A ball but still a couple years away probably. So unless there is a plan I just think it creates a huge hole. Dozier is I think is the greatest opportunity, he might be at his highest value this year. He is old for his service time and the Twins have replacements available coming in Rosario (stop gap if needed this year.) and Jorge Polanco who should go back to 2nd and prep to take over for Dozier in the next couple of years. (Nick Gordon is two steps behind Polanco and starting in E-Town makes me think the Twins see him as a fast mover.) Vargas takes Morales spot, Rosario takes over for Hicks, Ortiz comes in for Willingham, Suzuki stays. Late July the lineup is Santana SS- Rosario- CF, Mauer 1b, Vargas DH, Arcia/Parmalee RF, Plouffe 3b, Suzuki C, Ortiz LF, Escobar 2b. Drop Florimon as fast as you can, bring up Beresford and he and Ramiriz and Fryer are the bench unless you want Pinto to come back up and sit. Hopefully Corriea stays hot and someone wants him, dreaming good thoughts here. Nolasco...5th starter. Deduno, see you in the 6th innings of blowouts Sammy. So July rotation, Hughes, Gibson, May, Meyer, ugh Nolasco. In the pen Perk, Fien, Burton, Deduno, Swarzek and fill in the blanks.

    12 man staff- 4 man bench with a Utility guy that can play anywhere in the infield, a couple of outfielders, A guy at SS that can play CF if needed and a CF that can play 2b. Vargas and Parmalee can play 1B. Now the quality of their defensive capabilities is another question. But considering we had Collabello, Kubel and Bartlett roaming, that is a relative term by the way, the outfield this year I would consider this a upgrade. Only one back up catcher for his lame duckness, but I don't see Suzuki or Fyer DHing with this collection of career DH's.

    Plenty of holes to be punched here I know. (lLike they would promote Vargas and Rosario over Collabello and Hermann.) Maybe some 40 man considerations around some guys, I bet you can find some floatsam in the 40 man if needed. What do you get back? I don't have any clue there. I would expect decent returns from Willingham and Morales, but not someone we would all praise. Dozier, that has potentiel to bring something nice I would hope. But then again I could be fully delusional and living in my Twins rube bubble. Also if you need to throw in a Minor leaguer we do have some assests down there that are touchable.

    Of course the Twins could go on a 10-0 run like the Royals and make all this part of some thread we will quickly forget. But then again...

  23. #100
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I'm not making excuses for not trading Willingham. I don't know what the offers were and what Ryan asked in return but it's a mistake to look at a 2+ year contract at the deadline and expect a fair return. It just doesn't seem to happen that way.

    Personally, I think it's really dumb.
    The reason for this, in my opinion, comes down to risk. There was risk priced into that contract to begin with. If Hammer had a history of health instead of his history, there's no way he signs a 3/21M deal. It's much bigger. 3 months into it, that risk hasn't been mitigated. GMs know they are picking up a guy with 2 1/2 years left on the contract, and odds are good he's going to get hurt... and guess what, he did. That risk is largely mitigated this offseason. He doesn't have to go another year, he has to go a few more months. Teams will pay for that if he's an impact bat, which right now, he is. They'll pay... not a superstar prospect, but something with more upside than what we'd have gotten in 2012. My guess is that it would be a Trevor May type guy (not 2014 Trevor, but December 2012 Trevor).

    I know my position in 2012 was not to trade him if the results are underwhelming. What they were offered, we'll never know, but I highly doubt there was a ton on the table for him.

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