06-27-2014, 01:20 AM #121
I just wish that they had paid more attention to the data before they let the situation get to this point.
06-27-2014, 01:56 AM #122
And he was hurt for all but but 3 innings in 2010 and 4 innings in 2011- his velo was at the low point of his career, but I'm not sure why would you even use those years as examples of anything.
He regained his full health in his first year with the Twins in 2012 at age 30/31 ...and his velocity returned to at, or near, career-bests in 3 pitches (92.6 on his 4-seam FB, and career highs in velocity on his 2-seam FB- 93.0 and also on his CB- 92.9)
His velocity dropped in 2013 at age 31/32, and his hit-ability and wildness increased.
His velocity further dropped in 2014 at age 32/33- to levels similar to his previous- mentioned lousy, but unhealthy year of 2009, and his strikeouts have also dropped, along with increased hit-ability and wildness.
These numbers confirm the trends cited for all pitchers in the aggregate.
06-27-2014, 03:53 AM #123
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There are more factors that come into play for an aging curve for an athlete. It is still up to gentics, injuries, training to determine how a player declines. It doesn't happen because they turn 30.
Last edited by The Wise One; 06-27-2014 at 03:57 AM.
06-27-2014, 05:41 AM #124
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2 Pevey and Dempster a combined WAR of 0.4 in 2013? Recheck your stats. About a 3.7 or so FWAR combined
Relative regression estimates are worthless, A player will regress, but nor necessarily between 31 and 35. Not at the same rate. There are so many other factors that come into play. Using age as anything other than a red flag to look hard at the player is shortsighted. The whole purpose of scouting and statistics is to ferret out the good player. Throw it away when they turn 30, they are going to regress. Doesn't make sense. Long term plans. Not every player on a roster is a long term plan. Most are not. Maybe the 84 Twins, but they even had Downtown Derrel Brown on the roster as well as only 4 quality pitchers,
06-27-2014, 01:44 PM #125
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And no, Peavy and Dempster didn't contribute much to the Red Sox in 2013, and their .6 and -.2 WARs from ESPN really do add up to 0.4. Fangraphs puts them both at 1.3, and like ESPN, shows they contributed a small fraction of what the four best starters did. As I mentioned, three of those were under 30, including the two best, so the Red Sox are not an example of a team built to contend around a staff full of 30+ pitchers. They had some, but outside of Lackey and Uehara, they just didn't do much.
Nobody is implying that 30+ pitchers' age regression is either precisely calculable or the only factor in evaluating them, or that the Twins should jettison all over-30 pitchers. People are primarily asking why a rebuilding team would stock up on over-30 non-star pitchers when history and stats tell us they're unlikely to contribute when the team is good again, especially when Ryan himself has acknowledged the high risk they incur.
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06-27-2014, 11:56 PM #126
As far as your being mystified....refer back to the pitcher aging curve chart. Playing the odds is only the most logical, and cost-effective thing to do here- it's how you better position yourself to have sufficient young, fresh and effective arms in their prime when all the young position players are established and ready to make their mark in the majors.
It's not at all unreasonable to suggest that it's time to at least make a move to league average in pitcher age.... and make the move on from at least some of the guys who clearly aren't part of the future, and give a few looks at the guys, a la Gibson last year, who have a good chance to become a part of the future.
Last edited by jokin; 06-27-2014 at 11:59 PM.
06-28-2014, 12:25 AM #127
The Cardinals started yet another 22-year-old this evening against the Dodgers. Carlos Martinez had been a starter throughout his minor league career after signing as an undrafted FA from Puerto Rico in 2009.
Martinez made one major league start out of 21 appearances in 2013, after being called up after 13 starts in AAA. Tonight's start for the Cards was his first in 2014- after 32 relief appearances. The Cardinals are showing the way as to how you rebuild, er...check that...skip the rebuild and instead, reload your pitching staff with a string of young arms at the ready when injuries or ineffectiveness forces the issue.
06-28-2014, 08:43 AM #128
2013 - 7
2012 - 5
2011 - 6
2010 - 4
2009 - 8
2008 - 5
2007 - 9
2006 - 7
2005 - 4
2004 - 7