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Thread: Bowden - Hitters Who Could Be Dealt

  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Personally, I don't like the line of reasoning that says that the Twins have room for dead money. I don't like it about as much as I don't like the idea that if everyone else does their job, player X doesn't have to perform, or games in April don't mean much. These strike me as reasons to justify a bad decisions/play that will eventually have long term ramifications. I get that the Twins have room to spend, but it doesn't take a whole lot of bad money contracts for them to suddenly be unable to make a smart move when the time comes. Just my 2 cents.
    You don't want to make ridiculous deals just to spend money, but at the same time, you can't be afraid to take some chances and a 2 year extension for Suzuki would be, IMO, taking a calculated risk that you can afford to be wrong about in a worst case scenario. The alternatives (worse FA options and probably 'worser' internal options) present higher risks.

    Any contract you sign a player to for a few million dollars per year has the potential to be a bad contract. But that doesn't mean you get skittish about doing them when the alternatives are unacceptable to you.

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  2. #82
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    Any contract has the possibility to be bad, that does not mean you stop giving 2 years contracts where you are short at the major league level. I expect both Willingham and Morales to be dealt and possibly one or two bullpen pieces, but they do not bring much in return.

  3. #83
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    Except the data indicate he is not that good a catcher. .....

  4. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by SD Buhr View Post
    You don't want to make ridiculous deals just to spend money, but at the same time, you can't be afraid to take some chances and a 2 year extension for Suzuki would be, IMO, taking a calculated risk that you can afford to be wrong about in a worst case scenario. The alternatives (worse FA options and probably 'worser' internal options) present higher risks.

    Any contract you sign a player to for a few million dollars per year has the potential to be a bad contract. But that doesn't mean you get skittish about doing them when the alternatives are unacceptable to you.
    I'd think long and hard about a 2 year extension for Suzuki. The problem as I see it is that he's going to be looking for longer than that at a much higher price. He's by far and away the best FA of a pretty bad class at a position where many teams are week, and he's coming off a career season at age 31... I'd add he's never had anything close to this type of a season prior. I'm not against having him here, but this team also needs to transition to Pinto and I'm not sure that's going to easily happen with Suzuki on the roster... I'd also add that if he turns back into a pumpkin, he's going to get the majority of reps regardless.

    That, in a nutshell is my hesitation. I highly doubt he gets 2 seasons only for a few million more than what he's making now. Someone is going to pony up some cash for him, so unless the Twins want to give him a QO and go year to year (which, to be honest I think may make sense for the Twins, not so much to Suzuki), I don't see him remaining here. If he doesn't stay, he should be traded. He will be a difference maker to a contender, and that's what causes contenders to part with nice prospects.

  5. #85
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby_Waved_At_Me View Post
    I would argue that even his career norms would be reason enough to keep him around another year. Better than Fryer, Herrmann, and the younger guys like Stuart Turner and Mitch Garver are a couple years away at least.
    If Suzuki turns into a pumpkin, then the Twins can make Pinto the everyday catacher with Suzuki as his backup next season.
    Yes, this. Barring a silly offer, trading Suzuki leaves the Twins too thin at C. I'd be fine with extending him for a year with a team option for '16. If he doesn't want that deal now and he keeps up his performance the rest of the year, 2 years might be what it takes at that time.

    Willingham, on the other hand, should be moved. He's done well since coming off the DL and a few contenders need a corner OF. Let Parmelee and Arcia play the corners for the rest of the year. The Reds are mentioned as a potential fit for Hammer... what's a reasonable return? Someone like Michael Lorenzen? The Twins love those former college closers turned starters...

  6. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    Yes, this. Barring a silly offer, trading Suzuki leaves the Twins too thin at C. I'd be fine with extending him for a year with a team option for '16. If he doesn't want that deal now and he keeps up his performance the rest of the year, 2 years might be what it takes at that time.
    If the Twins are selling, that means they are out of it, so what if they are thin at catcher for the remainder of a losing season? If they like what they have in Suzuki, trade him then re-sign him in the off-season. If he can bring back a nice player or two it seems silly to hold on to him simply because you want to be the first team to negotiate with him in the off-season. If they want him back, surely they can make him aware of that upon the trade.

    If he wants to play in Minnesota next year, why wouldn't he want the team to try to increase the talent level to play alongside of him?

  7. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    I'd think long and hard about a 2 year extension for Suzuki. The problem as I see it is that he's going to be looking for longer than that at a much higher price. He's by far and away the best FA of a pretty bad class at a position where many teams are week, and he's coming off a career season at age 31... I'd add he's never had anything close to this type of a season prior. I'm not against having him here, but this team also needs to transition to Pinto and I'm not sure that's going to easily happen with Suzuki on the roster... I'd also add that if he turns back into a pumpkin, he's going to get the majority of reps regardless.

    That, in a nutshell is my hesitation. I highly doubt he gets 2 seasons only for a few million more than what he's making now. Someone is going to pony up some cash for him, so unless the Twins want to give him a QO and go year to year (which, to be honest I think may make sense for the Twins, not so much to Suzuki), I don't see him remaining here. If he doesn't stay, he should be traded. He will be a difference maker to a contender, and that's what causes contenders to part with nice prospects.
    That's fair. If you're right and Suzuki decides he wants to roll the dice and try to cash in on a 3-4 year deal for a bunch more money, clearly the Twins should thank him for his service and move on. Guess we'll see if that's how it plays out.

    Again, if I really believed Pinto is a potential starting catcher, I'd agree to just having him get on with it. I just don't think that will be his role, not with the Twins anyway.

    Covering the Cedar Rapids Kernels for
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  8. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby_Waved_At_Me View Post
    here are the catchers that are likely free agents in 2015:

    Catchers
    John Buck (34)
    Ryan Doumit (34)
    Nick Hundley (31) – $5MM club option
    Gerald Laird (35)
    Russell Martin (32)
    Jeff Mathis (32) – $1.5MM club option
    Wil Nieves (36)
    Miguel Olivo (36)
    A.J. Pierzynski (38)
    David Ross (38)
    Geovany Soto (32)
    Kurt Suzuki (31)

    in a word, yuck.

    If the Twins are not sold on Pinto for 2015 and they are looking for a player outside the organization to be the catcher more than 40% of the time, I think Suzuki is probably the best choice on the list.

    Yes, Suzuki is a trade candidate. At the moment, though, Pinto is on the DL in AAA, so it's Fryer/Herrmann that would be taking over and the Twins would be getting "something" in return - not sure it would be worth it.
    This post sums up this discussion for me. Grab Suzuki for 2 more years, before it is too late. There is no better alternative, and none of those down on the farm are ready for this key position.

  9. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    If the Twins are selling, that means they are out of it, so what if they are thin at catcher for the remainder of a losing season? If they like what they have in Suzuki, trade him then re-sign him in the off-season. If he can bring back a nice player or two it seems silly to hold on to him simply because you want to be the first team to negotiate with him in the off-season. If they want him back, surely they can make him aware of that upon the trade.

    If he wants to play in Minnesota next year, why wouldn't he want the team to try to increase the talent level to play alongside of him?
    I think Suzuki can help what will be a young pitching staff next year, more so than any catcher we have in the minors now. Pitching has been our greatest need. We have some good pitchers in AAA and AA and they will need a catcher with experience and smarts...not some rookie who is just as lost as these young pitchers will be. Sign Suzuki for 2 years with a team option for the 3rd year.

  10. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by tarheeltwinsfan View Post
    This post sums up this discussion for me. Grab Suzuki for 2 more years, before it is too late. There is no better alternative, and none of those down on the farm are ready for this key position.
    But why would it ever be too late? Suzuki is not a guy who would ever be out of the Twins price range in free agency. In fact, paying him now would likely mean paying more than he'll receive as a free agent as he is playing over his head right now. An expected 2nd half decline would likely correct his current market price.

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  12. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    But why would it ever be too late? Suzuki is not a guy who would ever be out of the Twins price range in free agency. In fact, paying him now would likely mean paying more than he'll receive as a free agent as he is playing over his head right now. An expected 2nd half decline would likely correct his current market price.
    Good point. I had not thought of saving some $ by signing him later after his inevitable decline...but what if he doesn't decline the rest of this season...then won't he be worth even more?

  13. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by tarheeltwinsfan View Post
    I think Suzuki can help what will be a young pitching staff next year, more so than any catcher we have in the minors now. Pitching has been our greatest need. We have some good pitchers in AAA and AA and they will need a catcher with experience and smarts...not some rookie who is just as lost as these young pitchers will be. Sign Suzuki for 2 years with a team option for the 3rd year.
    Right, but this could be done in November.

    Quote Originally Posted by tarheeltwinsfan View Post
    Good point. I had not thought of saving some $ by signing him later after his inevitable decline...but what if he doesn't decline the rest of this season...then won't he be worth even more?
    It's possible, but I'd say the odds are against it. Even if he continues this unlikely pace, he's still not going to price himself out of the Twins pocketbook, not even close. I'd take this risk for these bigger payoffs.
    Last edited by nicksaviking; 06-29-2014 at 07:30 PM.

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  15. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    If the Twins are selling, that means they are out of it, so what if they are thin at catcher for the remainder of a losing season? If they like what they have in Suzuki, trade him then re-sign him in the off-season. If he can bring back a nice player or two it seems silly to hold on to him simply because you want to be the first team to negotiate with him in the off-season. If they want him back, surely they can make him aware of that upon the trade.

    If he wants to play in Minnesota next year, why wouldn't he want the team to try to increase the talent level to play alongside of him?
    Great in theory, but this is one of those fan ideas that just doesn't play out in reality.

    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    But why would it ever be too late? Suzuki is not a guy who would ever be out of the Twins price range in free agency. In fact, paying him now would likely mean paying more than he'll receive as a free agent as he is playing over his head right now. An expected 2nd half decline would likely correct his current market price.
    Your argument here is the same one that can be made for an extension. Neither price would ever be out of the Twins' price range. If the Twins do want to keep him around, there's value in knowing you have your guy opposed to hoping for the best during free agency.

    If his contract demands are too high right now, then play it out the rest of the year. Trading him and re-signing him seems like the far and away least likely scenario. Please note that I'm not actually saying the Twins should extend him, only that I can see why they would if they don't think Pinto is the answer. Personally, I'd rather see Pinto.

  16. #94
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    I'd also rather see Pinto, but I also believe they don't like that option and think Suzuki is a good defensive catcher (even though the pitch framing data says otherwise). It wouldn't kill me either way if Suzuki was on the roster next year, frankly.
    Lighten up Francis....

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    The trade and re-sign him plan is a nice thought - it might be optimistic to assume that Suzuki would come back to the Twins once he's a free agent. What if he likes the team he's traded to even more than the Twins? What if the team that he's traded to wins the World Series (or even just makes a deep playoff run)? It worked for Aguilera that one year because Aggie was a fixture in the Twins bullpen for years before he was traded, won a ring with the Twins, and was a fan favorite here.

    Does Suzuki have a house in the TC burbs somewhere or does he still live in SoCal? I don't think half a season (as good as it has been for him) is enough to think he'd pick the Twins again in the off-season given he'd be the #1 free agent catcher (as opposed to #3 or #4 last off-season behind McCann, AJ, and Saltalamacchia).

    I can say objectively that trading Suzuki near the deadline and then re-signing him in the offseason would be the best thing for the Twins to do (EDITED TO ADD: assuming that the Twins are not going to play Pinto as the everyday guy in 2015) . I'm skeptical that they can do it.
    Last edited by Kirby_Waved_At_Me; 06-30-2014 at 09:30 AM.

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    Suzuki currently ranks 21st among all catchers according to Fangraphs WAR. They do not include pitch framing data in their calculations. The Twins overall rank 18th at catcher with a boost from Pinto's bat that most teams don't get in a second catcher.

    Suzuki ranks 21st while having a career season. Their pitching ERA ranks 28th in spite of Suzuki's game calling skills. That is with the benefit of Target Field (Rangers 29th, Rockies 30th). If they extend Suzuki it is guaranteed that the Twins will not look for another solution either by free agent, Pinto or trade.

    In 2/3 the games, Russell Martin has twice the WAR ranking 9th. The separation would even be greater if his pitch framing data were included.

    If the Twins must go after a veteran catcher, isn't Martin the better choice?

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  20. #97
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    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/so...hp?cid=1667331

    You have to scroll WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY down to find Suzuki.....
    Lighten up Francis....

  21. #98
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    Martin is better, but he's going to be looking for a 3 year deal, and most indications are that the Pirates are going to spend to retain him.

    All I'm saying is that if the Twins are going to go with a player other than Pinto in 2015, I hope they extend Suzuki now, rather than not retaining him and roll the dice in the off-season, hoping to get Martin, Suzuki or worse.

    What is the best move based on the track record of the front office? The best move that they might actually make is to get Suzuki to sign for another year, with a team option for 2016.

    The best move overall? That's probably trading Suzuki for whatever they can get, then starting Pinto in 2015. I don't think that is what they will do.

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    By signing Suzuki, the Twins simply extend and accept being mediocre. Why extend any decline phase player unless they are among the top third of their position? They need to allow space for the decline.

    Trade Suzuki. Give Pinto 2 months. Assess in the winter.

    If they can't sign Martin and are convinced Pinto is a DH, they don't have to choose someone else from the list. They can make a trade.

  23. #100
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    They can certainly try to make a trade.

    When I advocate for Suzuki, I'm saying I'd rather the Twins have him on the team than Fryer or Herrmann in 2015.

    I feel like that is the choice that the Twins have set up for themselves. I'd like to be wrong about that, it would be great if Pinto works out and/or they get a player better than all three options (Suzuki/Fryer/Herrmann) to be Pinto insurance.

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