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Thread: Article: Nolasco Presents a Big Problem

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    2014 Twins starting pitching:
    WAR rank: 20 ---- 9 place jump
    ERA rank: 29th----1 place jump
    runs allowed per game: .625 from being median---that's worse, runs are down across the league


    2013 rankings:
    WAR: 29th
    ERA: 30th
    runs allowed per game: .5 runs from median in the league

    *the last calculation was done quickly, hope I didn't mess it up......but you need to compare the Twins not only to each other, but the rest of the league. Distance from median is a good measurement, imo.
    20th? Wow! I am astonished.

    I checked and it is accurate (at least for Fangraphs WAR).

    It is also astonishing that the Twins starters rank higher than the Giants, though the Giants ERA sits at 3.59.

    Fangraphs attempts to separate the pitching from the defense. If 20th is the true Twin rank, they must have a horrific defense that needs to be fixed first before any assessment of the pitching can be made.

    Fangraphs credits the Twins starters for 5.7 WAR. BR credits them for round 2.6. I had to add the individuals so there may be a rounding error and I couldn't see how Deduno starts were split from relief so I used his fangraph start value. A 2.6 WAR would rank 30th on Fangraphs list.

    How much is the defense contributing to runs scored against? Fangraphs suggests it might be significant. BR suggests the starting pitching has been pretty awful.

  2. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    20th? Wow! I am astonished.

    I checked and it is accurate (at least for Fangraphs WAR).

    It is also astonishing that the Twins starters rank higher than the Giants, though the Giants ERA sits at 3.59.

    Fangraphs attempts to separate the pitching from the defense. If 20th is the true Twin rank, they must have a horrific defense that needs to be fixed first before any assessment of the pitching can be made.

    Fangraphs credits the Twins starters for 5.7 WAR. BR credits them for round 2.6. I had to add the individuals so there may be a rounding error and I couldn't see how Deduno starts were split from relief so I used his fangraph start value. A 2.6 WAR would rank 30th on Fangraphs list.

    How much is the defense contributing to runs scored against? Fangraphs suggests it might be significant. BR suggests the starting pitching has been pretty awful.
    Fangraphs is a lot more lenient toward bad pitching performances than baseball-reference. A nice read to understand the difference if you're into that thing is:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war...ces-fwar-rwar/

  3. #63
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Weren't many of the discussions last off-season on Nolasco vs. Arroyo?

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/0...n-surgery.html

    I guess there was just no winning with either of them.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by naobermiller View Post
    Fangraphs is a lot more lenient toward bad pitching performances than baseball-reference. A nice read to understand the difference if you're into that thing is:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war...ces-fwar-rwar/
    Fangraphs WAR is FIP based. Home runs, strikeouts and walks matter. Nothing else matters. The difference between FIP and RA is far greater for the Twins than any other team.

    Can the difference be explained by horrific defense?

    Does Fangraphs rank of 20th truly represent the skill of the Twin starters?

    Is it possible that the Twins starters are much poorer than 20th and Fangraphs FIP based calculations do not represent the performance of their starters accurately?

  5. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    Fangraphs WAR is FIP based. Home runs, strikeouts and walks matter. Nothing else matters. The difference between FIP and RA is far greater for the Twins than any other team.

    Can the difference be explained by horrific defense?

    Does Fangraphs rank of 20th truly represent the skill of the Twin starters?

    Is it possible that the Twins starters are much poorer than 20th and Fangraphs FIP based calculations do not represent the performance of their starters accurately?
    I'd argue that neither of them are truly representative. Since there's a discrepancy, it means there's differing opinions on what determines a pitcher's effectiveness, and that the truth exists somewhere between the two. But that's just my inner statistician poking it's ugly head out.

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  7. #66
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    Last edited by JB_Iowa; 07-07-2014 at 06:43 PM.

  8. #67
    Senior Member All-Star Sconnie's Avatar
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    Thanks JB. Is Nolasco's elbow injury the same injury that Pelfrey had to his groin?

    The conspiracy theorist in me thinks so, but....

  9. #68
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    Nolasco should have said something two months ago...wow
    This does explain some of the issues he's having.
    I bent my wookie...

  10. #69
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    In a way, I can appreciate Nolasco gutting it out and just pitching .... but for the horrid results. He had just signed a relatively large contract. I'm sure he wanted to live up to those obligations.

    In the long run, it would have been better if he said something earlier. And maybe they won't find anything. But if they do, I think I will actually feel better about him than I have.

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  12. #71
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    Nolasco's 5.90 ERA is the worst and nobody else is even close -- Justin Masterson is next at 5.16.
    Just a side note - Masterson is doing his best to close the gap. Tonight - 2 IP, 5 ER; ERA up to 5.51 now.

  13. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Agreed, the money is a big difference. I would hope that free agency is less of a crap shoot, given the significant difference in information.
    There is generally a reason that pitchers reach free agency. It is not just money, it is the poor supply in free agency, and those available are generally pitchers with warts.

    Nolasco was pretty much a consensus top 5 free agent pitcher in the offseason. This is why building through free agency is so troublesome.
    Papers...business papers.

  15. #74
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    This would tie in with the reduced velocity that really limits Nolasco's effectiveness. I just wonder how often a pitcher is really 100%. The aforementioned Masterson might be a really good example.

  16. #75
    I have a deja vu feeling....there was another pitcher who got lit up/pitched poorly only to come out after the fact and say they were pitching hurt. Was it Slowey? Or was it Perkins when he was starting? I can't remember other than it didn't end well for that pitcher.

  17. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    That is a 17% increase in a pitch that doesn't work well......some awesome strategy there.
    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    I'd think this is on Suzuki primarily... Anderson/Gardy second. This to me is something that Anderson and Gardy need to work with Suzuki to have him adjust his approach with Nolasco.
    Except for that little problem of being completely unable to locate any of those pitches.

  18. #77
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    Fangraphs has calculated what the Twins record would be without Nolasco's 5-7 win-loss record: 34-41. Still last place in the Central.

    Just some perspective on this.

  19. #78
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    Soon it will be...

    We found a little inflammation & have him rest a couple weeks. Followed by short start, 60 day DL, & finally TJ.

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  21. #79
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    So, ya, I do not admire guys who hide injuries.....they tend to perform badly, and prolong their recovery. Well, this sucks, or maybe he will pitch better in one to two years. Sigh.
    Lighten up Francis....

  22. #80
    No matter how highly we think of May or Meyer, they will possibly take some lumps in their major league debut. Might as well get it done and over with. We can patch in Johnson and Logan. Heck, why not advance Kohl Stewart and let him pitch and learn (ala Aaron Hicks). If anyone thinks the Twins pitching prospects will be lights out, think again...especially with the offensive that they currently have behind them. I'm almost thinking he Twins are thinking to promote players as a group, but really expect to see lumps if we throw five rookies in the lineup and three in the rotation in a six-month period. It seems the Twins hope for a .500 season is slowly diminishing. At least attendance took a jolt upwards this past month and might be able to sustain itself thru August, but picture empty stands and lots of cheap tickets again in September and good luck selling season tickets next year with no "All-Star" game to dangle.

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