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Thread: Sinker: Pirates find Worley's mechanical flaw

  1. #61
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I agree. My problem is that lately, it seems we've had more misses than hits... And even if they're equal, that's still not a good enough percentage. Gibson and Hughes are pluses but have to be offset by Nolasco and possibly Worley, performance pending.

    I'm not an Anderson hater, I simply think he's not as effective as he should be, or even as effective as he was in the past.

    All of this is grey area stuff. There is no clear answer. For me, Worley is just the tipping point where I say "enough is enough, time to move on".
    This is pretty much where I am at. My tipping point however will be if they can't help Nolasco right the ship. He has a much longer period of sustained quality in the big leagues than Worley.

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  3. #62
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby_Waved_At_Me View Post
    It might be a good idea, assuming the Twins are going to stick with Ryan/Gardy/Anderson until they quit on their own, to have some interview/face time with the coaches before acquiring a player. I wonder if they do that.
    I woke up (West Coast time) to a thread that already had exploded. I read through it, and this is the comment that comes closest to my view.

    Worley's case is similar to some cases for the Twins in the past, going across the regime of two GMs (related lineage of course), sitting at the intersection between Player Evaluation and Coaching. Coaching involves evaluation of course, independently of the evaluation that has to go on for acquisitions.

    Cases like JJ Hardy, Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young, seem with retrospect to be where the scouts/evaluators said "this is the guy to get", the GM confers and pulls the trigger, and then somehow the on-field guys some time later say in effect "I don't know what to do with this guy". There's some success, there's some time in the doghouse, and ultimately the player is dispatched. I realize two of the names above were traded for each other; it's the process I'm concerned about.

    Part of being a GM is Systems Analysis. From an outsider's perspective like mine, there is a disconnect between talent evaluation and coaching. They need to become more on the same page than they are at least showing. I'm going to stick my neck out and guess that the difference is in views on the players' makeup and mental approach.

    It's not working, apparently, for the GM to tell the manager and his coaches, "here are the guys you have to work with this year, get the most out of them". There needs to be more buy-in, somehow, so that players aren't thrown under the bus when they don't succeed for a time. I don't know the solution, but it's an identifiable problem, and probably a solution exists without blowing up the organization.
    Last edited by ashburyjohn; 07-08-2014 at 06:08 PM.

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  5. #63
    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    An average player is roughly a 1.5-2 WAR player. Revere is well below average and the type of player that usually ages terribly.
    What have the Twins got out of their center fielders in the same time frame?
    This comment brought to you from the Rosedale Mall studio by Hamm's Beer, brewed in the land of sky blue waters.

  6. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    How long should I wait? When I asked that question last year, people said 2014/5. I'd bet those same people would now say 2016 before you can judge his work. How long should we wait?

    Should we just accept the awful job of adding players in FA over the last few years? Should we accept they had NO PLAN for CF this year if Hicks didn't work? Should we accept that during a rebuild they use veteran RP with no options left, rather than young players?

    How and when should Ryan be held accountable for the success or failure of this team?

    btw, I'm ok with people saying be patient, but there has to be a timeline for goals, or they are not goals.
    Time and tide wait for no man.

  7. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kirby_Waved_At_Me View Post
    I would like to hear the Twins side of the story. I wouldn't be surprised if getting demoted (twice, to the bullpen, then AAA) and essentially traded for nothing gave him the kick needed to start listening to his coaches a little more closely.
    First, was he ever really demoted to the bullpen? I know that was a likely destination this year, but he never made a relief appearance with the Twins or at Rochester.

    Second, why would a trade for nothing motivate him more than clearing waivers for nothing? That was the weird part for the Twins -- they had the guy off the 40-man but under their cheap control for the full 2014 season (and beyond if they wanted to add him back to the roster)... and they chose to sell him? It would be like if they sold Parmelee this spring after he cleared waivers -- while the player in question is unlikely to be a star, there's just no real point in such a move for the 2014 Twins.

  8. #66
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    They needed room on the 40man for Bartlett and Kubel, that was more important than keeping a guy that was the centerpiece of a trade they had just made, who was young and had potential.

    I was ok with giving up on him, but not ok with giving up on him to clear room for guys that were old and had no upside. That is the miss here, a miss squarely on the FO, whether Worley ever pitches well again or not.
    Lighten up Francis....

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  10. #67
    I'm not buying into him yet. He has started 4 games for Pittsburgh. While his numbers on the outside look good, and his K's are up, his BABIP is a tiny .210. Still good for a FIP of 3.87 which is more than 1.5 better than last year, but still much higher than his 2.28 ERA he is sporting this year.

    Let's also not forget he moved to the NL and has already come and out said he was not 100% last year. I'll give him another 5-6 starts before counting him as a rebound success story.

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  12. #68
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    It's not working, apparently, for the GM to tell the manager and his coaches, "here are the guys you have to work with this year, get the most out of them". There needs to be more buy-in, somehow, so that players aren't thrown under the bus when they don't succeed for a time. I don't know the solution, but it's an identifiable problem, and probably a solution exists without blowing up the organization.
    While what you say makes sense, I always had the feeling that Gardenhire did have more say when Smith was in charge.

    I don't know how to reconcile that belief with what you are suggesting here.

  13. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    They needed room on the 40man for Bartlett and Kubel, that was more important than keeping a guy that was the centerpiece of a trade they had just made, who was young and had potential.

    I was ok with giving up on him, but not ok with giving up on him to clear room for guys that were old and had no upside. That is the miss here, a miss squarely on the FO, whether Worley ever pitches well again or not.
    It's worse than that -- Worley was already off the 40-man roster, having cleared waivers and been outrighted to AAA. As jorgen mentioned upthread, when the Twins sold him, the debate was more like Worley vs. Virgil Vasquez.

  14. #70
    Market inefficiency: Salvageable twins pitching castoffs.

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  16. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by SwainZag View Post
    I'm not buying into him yet. He has started 4 games for Pittsburgh. While his numbers on the outside look good, and his K's are up, his BABIP is a tiny .210. Still good for a FIP of 3.87 which is more than 1.5 better than last year, but still much higher than his 2.28 ERA he is sporting this year.

    Let's also not forget he moved to the NL and has already come and out said he was not 100% last year. I'll give him another 5-6 starts before counting him as a rebound success story.
    I mostly agree -- his K's are up over some dreadful lows last year, but still not near his Philly numbers.

    And it doesn't really take an unqualified "rebound success story" to make this look bad for the Twins. They gave up on this guy early, not for a roster spot, not for salary savings... why? And, has it been worth it? Has Virgil Vasquez been a indispensable mentor to our AA pitchers?

  17. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    An average player is roughly a 1.5-2 WAR player. Revere is well below average and the type of player that usually ages terribly.
    Revere was on track for 1.75-2.00 fWAR last year before injury and is on pace for the same this year. By your measurement he is right around average.

    Your speculation about his skillset being prime for quick decline is valid but you can't describe a guy as "all sorts of terrible" when he has actually been right around average.

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  19. #73
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jharaldson View Post
    Revere was on track for 1.75-2.00 fWAR last year before injury and is on pace for the same this year. By your measurement he is right around average.

    Your speculation about his skillset being prime for quick decline is valid but you can't describe a guy as "all sorts of terrible" when he has actually been right around average.
    I consider him all sorts of terrible. He is a negative fWAR player both offensively and defensively. His legs are a plus, everything else is a minus. He has no power, he has no discipline, he has no arm, metrics don't even like his range much anymore.

    There was never much to like about Ben Revere and he's only getting worse. The guy has a 3.1 BB% this season. Ugh.

  20. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    It's worse than that -- Worley was already off the 40-man roster, having cleared waivers and been outrighted to AAA. As jorgen mentioned upthread, when the Twins sold him, the debate was more like Worley vs. Virgil Vasquez.
    Ugh, thanks for cheering me up. ...

  21. #75
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    It's worse than that -- Worley was already off the 40-man roster, having cleared waivers and been outrighted to AAA. As jorgen mentioned upthread, when the Twins sold him, the debate was more like Worley vs. Virgil Vasquez.
    Right. The choice doesn't really make sense. So there must have been some sort of impasse. If we accept that not all coaches can work with all players, and we realize Worley isn't going to figure it out under Anderson, do we still simply hold onto Worley so other teams can't have him? Maybe Anderson is part of the problem, but the Worley situation is a murky indictment of his coaching prowess.

    Look, I get that it kind of sucks that Worley goes on to be successful; it's bittersweet. For every Worley who goes onto succeed (after four games), there's a Slowey who is exactly what the Twins thought he was, and utilized his best years.

    In fact, I remember similar arguments about Anderson and the Twins giving up on players emerging when Slowey had a short run of success a couple years ago.
    Last edited by PseudoSABR; 07-07-2014 at 02:24 PM.

  22. #76
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    Or, leave Worley in AAA, and ahve him work with that coach, and gain value for a trade? I will admit, if they thought he was bad, and they could not work with him, this is not the worst decision ever. OTOH, if players are more important than coaches, and several players have been unable to work with Anderson, maybe he's not the right coach for that reason.
    Lighten up Francis....

  23. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    I mostly agree -- his K's are up over some dreadful lows last year, but still not near his Philly numbers.

    And it doesn't really take an unqualified "rebound success story" to make this look bad for the Twins. They gave up on this guy early, not for a roster spot, not for salary savings... why? And, has it been worth it? Has Virgil Vasquez been a indispensable mentor to our AA pitchers?
    The Twins traded Worely because he was going to be buried here at AAA and be so far down the depth chart that it was addition by subtraction for us. And it was a chance for redemption for Worely.

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  25. #78
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    I consider him all sorts of terrible. He is a negative fWAR player both offensively and defensively. His legs are a plus, everything else is a minus. He has no power, he has no discipline, he has no arm, metrics don't even like his range much anymore.

    There was never much to like about Ben Revere and he's only getting worse. The guy has a 3.1 BB% this season. Ugh.
    I think he'll make an ok 4th OF as long as he can get on base over .320 -.330 and steal bases. He'll have enough of a career to be set for life financially. He'll probably end up with over 300 stolen bases and that is nothing to sneeze at. (yes overall he is sub par but he isn't without value to the team)
    Last edited by Brandon; 07-07-2014 at 02:16 PM.

  26. #79
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post
    While what you say makes sense, I always had the feeling that Gardenhire did have more say when Smith was in charge.

    I don't know how to reconcile that belief with what you are suggesting here.
    I have that belief too. I reconcile it by viewing two different results - with a non-baseball man as GM, Gardy had too much say in the acquisition (and disposition!) area, while with a baseball man in the big chair, Gardy (and by extension his staff) isn't sufficiently invested in the roster decisions and then sours on an underperforming player quickly if he's not of the right personality.

  27. #80
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer righty8383's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
    What have the Twins got out of their center fielders in the same time frame?
    I'm not gonna look, but whatever it is, I think its reasonable to expect that Trevor May will eventually be a solid ML pitcher and he will easily cover any value that we've lost in CF since Revere was traded.

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