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Thread: Sinker: Pirates find Worley's mechanical flaw

  1. #121
    Twins Moderator All-Star twinsnorth49's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    That's why the placeholders are needed until the true talent is ready. People are getting hung up on the ages of the placeholders. You could've artificially dropped the age of the major league roster for 2014 by stocking up on guys who didn't make it out of single-A and are now trying out for the Saints, but it wouldn't accelerate the actual rebuild, because guys with high upside aren't available for the asking. Average age of the present roster may not be meaningless, but it's the wrong metric.
    I don't think anyone is necessarily getting hung up on the age of the place holders, to me it's more about how long they're needed and when the true talent is ready.

    I freely admit TR is a much better judge at that than I am, I'd just like to see some more movement in that direction.

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  3. #122
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsnorth49 View Post
    I don't think anyone is necessarily getting hung up on the age of the place holders
    That's the measure I saw being proposed to tell whether the rebuild is happening and on schedule.

    to me it's more about how long they're needed and when the true talent is ready
    To me it's more about what's the best way to get the true talent ready - bringing more up to the 40-man and the 25-man doesn't seem like an obvious improvement versus letting them learn in the minors.

    Which is bringing us pretty far afield from the topic of Worley's spate of success.

  4. #123
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    That's why the placeholders are needed until the true talent is ready. People are getting hung up on the ages of the placeholders. You could've artificially dropped the age of the major league roster for 2014 by stocking up on guys who didn't make it out of single-A and are now trying out for the Saints, but it wouldn't accelerate the actual rebuild, because guys with high upside aren't available for the asking. Average age of the present roster may not be meaningless, but it's the wrong metric.
    Agreed to an extent, and many of my posts have been about caution with rushing guys like Hicks to the majors.

    But my (admittedly way, way off-topic by now) response was meant to address a binary post that assigned player age consideration a value of zero.

    And in keeping with the off-topic-ness, it was also about how the Twins contrast with the Cubs and their ability to lose at an acceptable rate without a third of the roster being essentially animated Fatheads.

    Put another way, if I had to wager that the eight (that's the over-30 differential) worst players on the Cubs' roster would figure more positively in their future, including both performance and trade value, compared to the Twins' eight oldest... well, it was time to clean behind the couch cushions anyway.

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  6. #124
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    He jumped the gun on trash talking, IMO.
    I disagree. Based on the Babip I saw, he might never have a better chance.

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  8. #125
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    I disagree. Based on the Babip I saw, he could never have a better chance.
    And don't forget the killer strand rate...

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  10. #126
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    That's why the placeholders are needed until the true talent is ready. People are getting hung up on the ages of the placeholders. You could've artificially dropped the age of the major league roster for 2014 by stocking up on guys who didn't make it out of single-A and are now trying out for the Saints, but it wouldn't accelerate the actual rebuild, because guys with high upside aren't available for the asking. Average age of the present roster may not be meaningless, but it's the wrong metric.
    The likelihood of it accelerating the rebuild are slim if you have a bunch of AAAA players or failed prospects. (Not your own players, no one wants anyone rushed - just guys that are younger)

    The likelihood of accelerating the rebuild with Pelfrey, Correia, and even Willingham? Zero.

    So I lean towards slim as a preference.

  11. #127
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaBombo View Post
    But my (admittedly way, way off-topic by now) response was meant to address a binary post that assigned player age consideration a value of zero.

    And in keeping with the off-topic-ness, it was also about how the Twins contrast with the Cubs and their ability to lose at an acceptable rate without a third of the roster being essentially animated Fatheads.

    Put another way, if I had to wager that the eight (that's the over-30 differential) worst players on the Cubs' roster would figure more positively in their future, including both performance and trade value, compared to the Twins' eight oldest... well, it was time to clean behind the couch cushions anyway.
    And this is another great way to say what I am. The age of the roster during a rebuild does matter and does give a strong indication of the rebuild's progress. I'd also much rather roll the dice with young players with slim chances than gamble on old, mediocre players drumming up trade value.

    Just a preference and one that I think is very defensible.
    Last edited by TheLeviathan; 07-08-2014 at 07:31 PM.

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  13. #128
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    The likelihood of accelerating the rebuild with Pelfrey, Correia, and even Willingham? Zero.

    So I lean towards slim as a preference.
    Florimon, Fuld, Presley (Alex, not Ryan two-ss), Albers, Walters, ...? Zero as well, and there is griping about them all the time. "Oh, not them, though. The good ones."

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  15. #129
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    The age of the roster during a rebuild does matter and does give a strong indication of the rebuild's progress.
    And I just explained why it doesn't. It's a trailing indicator, not a leading indicator. Just as the unemployment figures tell you too late that a recession is happening. Just as the timer going off tells you the cake is done. Just as the rooster crowing tells you the sun is about to rise. But if you decide these are important to the actual process, and you decide to move the timer up to make the cake bake faster, or somehow trick the rooster into crowing at midnight to make the sun rise, it will lead to disappointment. Because it's the wrong metric. You can sign all the young AAAA and failed prospects you want, it won't accelerate the rebuild.

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  17. #130
    Senior Member All-Star LaBombo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    So I lean towards slim as a preference.
    Prayers for your wrong choice...




    ... buster!

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  19. #131
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    Florimon, Fuld, Presley (Alex, not Ryan two-ss), Albers, Walters, ...? Zero as well, and there is griping about them all the time. "Oh, not them, though. The good ones."
    Fuld is in his 30s. The rest I can't speak for when you decide to assign my argument to a hundred other posters and their griping habits as a scarecrow.

  20. #132
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    And I just explained why it doesn't. It's a trailing indicator, not a leading indicator. Just as the unemployment figures tell you too late that a recession is happening. Just as the timer going off tells you the cake is done. Just as the rooster crowing tells you the sun is about to rise. But if you decide these are important to the actual process, and you decide to move the timer up to make the cake bake faster, or somehow trick the rooster into crowing at midnight to make the sun rise, it will lead to disappointment. Because it's the wrong metric. You can sign all the young AAAA and failed prospects you want, it won't accelerate the rebuild.
    It is an indicator, it's not foolproof, especially when the roster is young. Now foolproof? That's a roster getting OLDER during a rebuild - that's a guarantee you haven't turned the corner yet.

    I would say, given the original premise, that such a thing is not "meaningless".

  21. #133
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    Worley got knocked around tonight.

    Put me in the group who really doesnt care how he does though. Its not like he has top of a rotation potential, hes a #4 at best. In the National league.

  22. #134
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    I don't care about the age of the place holders. I just don't want to see place holders.

    Instead of signing Kubel, look for a JD Martinez or Juan Francisco or Yangervis Solarte. Play Parmelee regularly instead of sporadically while Doumit played. Pinto gets a long look as the regular catcher. Hendriks is in the rotation for the year. Achter and Tomkin are in the pen. Don't give away Worley. Sign minor league free agents with some upside of age rather than decline phase players.

    All of these guys don't need to work out, find one and they are better off in the future.

    If place holders are a must, the Cubs have been signing place holders to one year contracts and trading them. Better strategy. Flip them and sign another next winter. The Twins have a lot of place holders. If they show any sign of success, they give them extensions and play them until they have no value.

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  24. #135
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    And I just explained why it doesn't. It's a trailing indicator, not a leading indicator. Just as the unemployment figures tell you too late that a recession is happening. Just as the timer going off tells you the cake is done. Just as the rooster crowing tells you the sun is about to rise. But if you decide these are important to the actual process, and you decide to move the timer up to make the cake bake faster, or somehow trick the rooster into crowing at midnight to make the sun rise, it will lead to disappointment. Because it's the wrong metric. You can sign all the young AAAA and failed prospects you want, it won't accelerate the rebuild.
    To me, it doesn't matter if the Twins are rolling out young players for the sake of young players. On a losing team, I'd prefer to see young players because if a team is going to lose, may as well do it with some upside, as marginal as that upside may be.

    But the fact is this: the Minnesota Twins will not be a contender until Buxton, Sano, Meyer, May, and Rosario are in MLB.

    And none of those guys are ready. I thought May was ready and it looked like he'd get the call but he went down with an injury. Meyer scuffled for a couple of weeks, which surely sent his time table back a bit. Hopefully we'll see both of them in Minnesota soon.

    So ultimately, does it really matter if Correia is pitching when the team feels Meyer isn't yet ready? I'd argue that it really doesn't.... What matters is whether the team is willing to discard Correia the moment they feel Meyer is ready.

  25. #136
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    What matters is whether the team is willing to discard Correia the moment they feel Meyer is ready.
    To the team's credit they have seemed more willing than in the past to do this. Still, when you given the Correias, Pelfreys, Willinghams, etc. 2 or 3 year deals they no longer serve the role of placeholder. Then they become entrenched and you start to make hard decisions about other players rather than discard them.

    That's how your roster stays an average of nearly 30 even as you're calling up young players.

  26. #137
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    To the team's credit they have seemed more willing than in the past to do this. Still, when you given the Correias, Pelfreys, Willinghams, etc. 2 or 3 year deals they no longer serve the role of placeholder. Then they become entrenched and you start to make hard decisions about other players rather than discard them.

    That's how your roster stays an average of nearly 30 even as you're calling up young players.
    Pelfrey, definitely.

    Correia and Willingham? Not so much. Both were needed to fill out some pretty awful rosters... I still don't think the Correia signing was a bad one, the problem is that it was their "best" pitching acquisition that offseason.

    I don't mind older placeholders on a roster that's going to lose... After all, you have to field somebody at all the positions. My only problem is when those old placeholders start blocking legitimate talent... Which we haven't seen much, honestly. A few weeks here, a few weeks there... Not enough for me to really get irritated. Definitely no 2006 Jason Bartlett situations, that's for sure.

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  28. #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    I disagree. Based on the Babip I saw, he might never have a better chance.
    Prior to yesterdays start, his LOB % was 87.7% versus a career 73.9%. His BABIP was .222, versus a career .320.

    The trend of stranding runners and having balls hit right at guys ended his last start (yesterday). 5 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 3 K's. His ERA jumped from 2.28 to 3.03, BABIP is gravitating closer to the mean (now .270), so is his LOB % (now 78.6%).

    Again, let's wait until he gets at least 60 IP before we start drawing conclusions.

  29. #139
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    What matters is whether the team is willing to discard Correia the moment they feel Meyer is ready.
    I guess I am wondering what else Meyer has to do? 89 IP, 3.43 ERA, 103K. His 4.3 BB per 9 is higher than you would like to see, but if you have a guy striking out 26% of the batters I would guess another walk per 9 is not as big of a deal.

    I did notice he pitched 99 pitches his last outing, maybe they are ramping him up for the big leauges? I hope so. Maybe it is just becuase his next outing will only be an inning in the futures game.
    Last edited by tobi0040; 07-09-2014 at 08:29 AM.

  30. #140
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I guess I am wondering what else Meyer has to do? 89 IP, 3.43 ERA, 103K. His 4.3 BB per 9 is higher than you would like to see, but if you have a guy striking out 26% of the batters I would guess another walk per 9 is not as big of a deal.

    I did notice he pitched 99 pitches his last outing, maybe they are ramping him up for the big leauges? I hope so. Maybe it is just becuase his next outing will only be an inning in the futures game.
    I think Meyer was on the cusp of being promoted but then he scuffled every other start in June. He'd post a good or decent start and then he'd follow it up with a short, bad start.

    He has now posted three consecutive good starts so I think he's back to the point where the Twins should consider promoting him.

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