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Thread: Article: Breaking Better

  1. #21
    Stop the Seller's mentality and focus on WINNING! I can't believe how many fans suck into the selling talent at the trading deadline as a way to get better. I don't want washed up mediocre veterans taking at-bats away from young talent, but somehow our young talent always seems to be a year away. I've had it with losing and the Twins have a loser's mentality. It's time to stop thinking about August/September as a AAAA tryout period and try to win every game. I don't get why Twins' fans continually give this team a pass.

  2. #22
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    Torstein, welcome to the boards. I don't think anyone here is giving them a pass. But, this collection of veterans isn't winning anything. Keeping them won't really get you what you want this year. You may as well trade them, and get something (like a lottery ticket) than just let them walk and get nothing. That's how I view it anyway.
    Lighten up Francis....

  3. #23
    Senior Member Triple-A h2oface's Avatar
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    Pinto should be traded, not Suzuki. Suzuki leads the pitching meetings, and is a leader behind the plate. A young staff will need that. Pinto will not be the answer for the next Twins young catcher. The answer will be Stuart Turner or more probably, Mitch Garver (check out what he does with the bat in ceadar rapids and he was one of three finalists for the 2013 Johnny Bench Award that was won by Turner) Suzuki, even if he bats .250, is the transition catcher that needs extended for two years sooner than later. I would even say immediately if not sooner.

  4. #24

    spot on

    I would also add that bringing back Fuld would not be a bad idea. Would be a very valuable 4th OF on a good team. Certainly entertaining Suzuki trade offers with the understanding you want to try an resign him in the off season would be very beneficial to the club. I think the next 13 games or so will be the litmus test of where Ryan goes with the club.




    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    Real improvement will be any that is carried into next year.

    There are some players that we can have more confidence as part of the solution than last year at the break.

    Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson all improved their stock in the last year.

    Trevor Plouffe and Chris Parmelee show signs that they are capable of being a role player on a good major league team.

    Glen Perkins and Casey Fien continue to be solid in the bullpen.

    Danny Santana has shown a glimpse of the player he might become in his small sample.

    Trevor May looked like he might be a reliever last year and now there is hope of a mid rotation starter.

    Kurt Suzuki has outperformed anyone's expectations and has increased his market value. This is exactly what you hope for when signing a veteran coming off a bad season. They have an opportunity to cash in on his performance and consider resigning him in the winter.

    Let's hope we can add Alex Meyer, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia and Josmil Pinto to the list in a year.

    On the other hand, Joe Mauer and Ricky Nolasco are critical to the teams success in 2015-2017. They need to approach their previous level of performance when they return this year.

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  6. #25
    Why trade Suzuki unless someone blows you away with an offer? Who's going to replace him? Pinto hasn't shown he's going to be a playoff caliber catcher based on his terrible defense. The standard for this team has to be that you trade FOR a guy - not just trade one of your guys to unload them before the trading deadline. It's time to get off the mediocrity treadmill Twins FO.

  7. #26
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    The stats say Suzuki is a bad defensive catcher (if you believe in pitch framing).
    Lighten up Francis....

  8. #27
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    The stats say Suzuki is a bad defensive catcher (if you believe in pitch framing).
    But Mike, pitch framing isn't ALL that makes up the defensive side of catching, is it? I know statistically Suzuki doesn't seem to do that well on throwing out runners, etc. But pitchers seem to be pretty positive about the way he calls a game (and takes control). In addition, he is one tough cookie out there.

    It seems to me that you have to weigh how all of those things relate. There appears to be some "art" (calling the game) and some "science" (the stats) involved.

    I really don't have strong feelings on retaining Suzuki. But it does appear to me that the Twins may never be comfortable with Pinto behind the plate (at least not as the primary catcher). So that does make it look like they need a bridge to someone further down in the system.

  9. #28
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    Agreed, there is more to it than that. But we are learning, I think, that it is more important than we thought. There are catchers who consistently get balls called strikes, and that is super important. Clearly, I am not in the room with the Twins, but it is hard to see what Suzuki does well. He doesn't throw our runners, he doesn't pitch frame well. I'm not sure, since many teams ahve coaches call games, why his game calling matters, but it seems to. I just remember when Pelfry said he liked one catcher over another (it seems), but that his stats were actually better with the other. People think things are happening sometimes, even when it is clear they are not actually happening the way they think.

    I'm ok if they re-sign him. But I'm baffled at what appears (other than Hicks and Santana in an emergency) to be a reluctance to let rookies come up and play here. If they aren't going to use Pinto, they should trade him, because I can guarantee another club will play him.
    Lighten up Francis....

  10. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Clearly, I am not in the room with the Twins, but it is hard to see what Suzuki does well.
    Suzuki is very good at keeping the low throws from becoming wild pitches. And he represents the antithesis to the typical Twins player of recent years lingering on the "day to day" list with minor dings.

  11. #30
    Mike and Jokin just summed up the good and the bad of Suzuki quite succinctly
    in just two posts. I would add that Suzuki has changed his approach (late in his career) and that change has made him a better hitter. He might just maintain a higher level of offensive performance than he has in the past. I would also add that we are talking about a couple months of a losing season. I don't think the odds of signing him for 15/16 change much if you trade him now. Therefore, you take future value if a contender offers it. The Twins have often held on for the sake of a couple extra wins when they could have (in theory) gotten value.
    Last edited by Major Leauge Ready; 07-16-2014 at 09:20 AM.

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  13. #31
    Twins Moderator All-Star twinsnorth49's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post
    But it does appear to me that the Twins may never be comfortable with Pinto behind the plate (at least not as the primary catcher). So that does make it look like they need a bridge to someone further down in the system.
    Just wondering how you feel it appears that way?

  14. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post
    But Mike, pitch framing isn't ALL that makes up the defensive side of catching, is it? I know statistically Suzuki doesn't seem to do that well on throwing out runners, etc. But pitchers seem to be pretty positive about the way he calls a game (and takes control). In addition, he is one tough cookie out there.

    It seems to me that you have to weigh how all of those things relate. There appears to be some "art" (calling the game) and some "science" (the stats) involved.

    I really don't have strong feelings on retaining Suzuki. But it does appear to me that the Twins may never be comfortable with Pinto behind the plate (at least not as the primary catcher). So that does make it look like they need a bridge to someone further down in the system.
    The reviews Suzuki's defense have always been mixed.

    It is hard to find data that shows he is a good defensive catcher. The pitch framing numbers are consistently poor. He has poor numbers throwing out runners.

    Since he played with two teams in 2012 and 2013, it gave an opportunity to compare against several other pitchers. I compared strike out and walk rates.

    http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php/4837...be-the-starter

    I used three years of data and 12000 batters faced for the sample. Over three years, the other 12 catchers have a 23% better strikeout walk ratio, a strikeout rate that is 9% better and a walk rate that is 11% lower. Parker wrote that Suzuki's pitch calling included more fastballs than any other catcher.

    Suzuki has poor pitch framing numbers but...
    Suzuki has poor numbers throwing out runners but...
    With Suzuki catching, pitchers walked more batters and struck out fewer batters but...

    He is good at blocking pitches. BP ranks Suzuki 8th this year (7th, 14th and 7th the previous 3 years) in blocking pitches. He is credited with 1 run prevented this year due to preventing wild pitches and passed balls.

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  16. #33
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsnorth49 View Post
    Just wondering how you feel it appears that way?
    It's really just an impression I've formed from everything I've read. Gut reaction more than anything else.

  17. #34
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    There is something that the statistics aren't showing.

    http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_2...ns-and-oakland

    The amount of preparation he does and the way he calls the game:

    "I think a lot of the reasons Norris has been successful is he learned from Suzuki in the way that he prepares and the way he knows the opposing hitters and the scouting report inside and out," Doolittle said.


    I don't know if this is statistically quantifiable but obviously his pitchers have a great deal of confidence in him. (not just from this story but from multiple stories I've read).

  18. #35
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post
    There is something that the statistics aren't showing.

    http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_2...ns-and-oakland
    Why wouldn't the stats show the result of his prep? Along with his pitch framing, blocking, etc.

    See Jorgensweet's blog. Suzuki gets fewer K's and more BB's than his teammates.

  19. #36
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    I don't believe it has ever been proven that moral victories lead to actual victories the next season. I care more about development than wins in a losing season. If Suzuki, Correia, Willingham, and whomever isn't in future plans trade them for assets instead of losing them for nothing at the end of the year.

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  21. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by h2oface View Post
    Pinto should be traded, not Suzuki. Suzuki leads the pitching meetings, and is a leader behind the plate. A young staff will need that. Pinto will not be the answer for the next Twins young catcher. The answer will be Stuart Turner or more probably, Mitch Garver (check out what he does with the bat in ceadar rapids and he was one of three finalists for the 2013 Johnny Bench Award that was won by Turner) Suzuki, even if he bats .250, is the transition catcher that needs extended for two years sooner than later. I would even say immediately if not sooner.
    He is leading this pitching staff to the worst ERA in the AL, anyone could do that.

  22. #38
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Dumb question, but how new is pitch framing as a stat? I ask b/c I haven't heard much about it until recently, and that tends to make me a bit nervous about quoting it as gospel truth.

  23. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Dumb question, but how new is pitch framing as a stat? I ask b/c I haven't heard much about it until recently, and that tends to make me a bit nervous about quoting it as gospel truth.
    It is only about 2-3 years old. It is based on Pitch F/X. If a pitcher gets a strike called by the umpire on a pitch Pitch F/X called a ball, the catcher gets credit for it because of pitch framing. There are a few things to be nervous about, whether there is as much impact from a few stolen strikes as the creator suggests, the fact that Pitch F/X can't possibly be always right, whether the catcher should be the one to always get the credit, and a number of other things.

    It is an interesting stat, but almost certainly needs refinement, and is certainly not the end all of ways to evaluate catchers.

  24. #40
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    I guess I'd assume it is not precise, but it is directional and indicates a consistent skill. Suzuki is last by both pages I visited. Even if the count is off, he's just not good at it.
    Lighten up Francis....

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