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Thread: OF situation thus far, and looking ahead.

  1. #41
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    Bash Brothers 2016
    1) Buxton CF (17 HR)
    2) Dozier 2B (28 HR)
    3) Mauer 1B (8 HR)
    4) Arcia LF (30 HR)
    5) Sano 3B (34 HR)
    6) Vargas DH (26 HR)
    7) Walker RF (30 HR)
    8) Pinto C (20 HR)
    9) Santana or Polanco SS (7 HR)

    200 Home Runs with just the starters - At least 6 guys with 20+ HRs
    Would be nice run support for those impressive pitchers in the wings. Game changers . I can dream

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  3. #42
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    lightfoot, if you had indicated 2017 or 2018 I think it would be closer to the truth and perhaps Dozier will be a trade chip by then with either Santana or Polanco at 2B. And perhaps one of the kid catchers instead of Pinto as well.

  4. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDean View Post
    Considering it's a thread on the OF of the future (and not a(nother) Dozier trade thread ), I figured I'd try to spark some discussion about less-heralded OF contributors.

    Does anyone know what the reports on Ortiz are like over at AAA? The numbers don't look great since leaving NB, but could he be a role player mid-season 2015? I know nothing of his defense, but he seems to get time at both corners and played some CF in his early pro days. It seems like he is closer than Rosario (or even Hicks ) because he's already shown that he's past AA. Definitely needs AAA seasoning, but I just felt like he doesn't get much talk in these threads.

    It's a little sad that there's really no one else in the upper minors OF to talk about beyond Ortiz, Rosario, and Hicks. Everyone else is a late 20s/early 30s replacement player (Rodriguez/Ramierez/Farris/Wimberly/Rahl). The only exceptions are maybe Herrmann and Kvasnicka who seem to be low-ceiling mid-20s backup catcher/utility types.
    OF of the future could include Kvasnika. He seems to be regaining the confidence he had when at the U of M.

    Switch-hitter, corner outfielder. . .he is the long-shot who could possibly help in late 2015 or 2016.

    While I have not seen him personally, Harrison at FTM also sounds like someone who could be a surprise as a corner outfielder in time. Long way away though.

  5. #44
    Senior Member Triple-A Danchat's Avatar
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    (2015) CF-Buxton/Fuld
    There are some people in this thread who are praising Fuld waaaay too much. Let's remember that he is a 4th OF at best and his current batting average is mostly luck. He will slump eventually and end up around .220. Ideally Fuld shouldn't be on this roster in 2015 and he probably won't be.

  6. #45
    Senior Member All-Star Sconnie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lakeside View Post
    Don't get me wrong because I like Fuld, but last I looked he was hitting .269. He does play a good CF and gives you speed at the bottom of the order. I'm suggesting he is the CF until Buxton arrives.

    Santana--if we have Buxton, is Santana not a shortstop and should we just start playing him there.

    Arcia--like the raw power, like the enthusiasm, can he play consistently at the MLB level is the question that has to be asked. I say give him some time because he has succeeded at every other level.

    Plouffe--if Sano is the 3B of the future. . . do we move him (Flouffe) to OF. Plouffe has talent but drives me crazy with his "streaky" play.

    Hicks--talented. . need to be careful we don't "Gomez" him and give up on him just as he matures and understands what has to be done. I think Hicks has a MLB future.

    Rosario--generally has hit everywhere. . .having some troubles this year. . but his past indicates he will hit in MLB

    Parmelee--showing promise. . . but a little like Plouffe in that he is streaky. . . when's the last time he hit a HR?

    Colabello--Is he a MLB hitter. . we should know at the end of this season. . plus he will be 31. Don't thik he will be with us next year.

    Willingham--taking for granted that he will be moved this July

    Morales-see Willingham

    Nunez--can play outfield okay and all infield positions, plus he can hit, which IMO makes him a great player to carry on the roster.

    Here's my take for the "end" of the 2015 Season. . .
    1B-Mauer
    2B-Dozier
    SS-Santana
    3B-Sano (if not then Escobar/Nunez)
    LF-Plouffe/Rosario/Hicks
    CF-Buxton/Fuld
    RF-Arcia/Parmelee/Hicks
    C-Pinto
    DH-Vargas

    *This does not address any trades, which may be coming. . We have some good infield prospects in the low minors that could bring a MLB hitter to this fold.

    *This line-up is truly HR power hitting challenged especially if Sano is not ready. We will save about $28 million annually if Willingham, Correia, Suzuki, Burton, Morales are gone. I'm pretty bullish that our SP will be improving with Meyer and Mays. So, my question is, How do we spend that $28M that will help us scoring more runs?
    Buxton, Sano, and Vargas each have a long way to go. You may be right, but I think only one of those three cracks the bigs in 2015. Until they're each ready, you have to be able to roll. No sense in moving somebody to make room for a guy who isn't there yet.
    "If I knew the world would end tomorrow, I would still plant a tree today."

  7. #46
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    Interesting to talk about the outfield going forward--Arcia is the surest thing. I hope he is solid the rest of the year. Buxton remains the future in center. I still think he will make his debut next year. He will need to make a Berrios-type jump next year. The remainder of this year and the AFL are crucial, as well. Rosario and Hicks are on the horizon. So far, Hicks has outhit Rosario at AA, but it is a SSS and Hicks is two years older. I can see Parmelee in a backup role and Trevor Plouffe logging considerable time in the outfield as soon as next year.

  8. #47
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    The two current center fielders have both exceeded expectations. Fuld is a fourth OF, but he is a capable CF and he has hit surprisingly well so far. Much like Escobar, he can't be overused. Santana really has done well so far, and moving between shortstop and center can work and it might have to until Buxton emerges. It is great to have options.

  9. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldguy10 View Post
    lightfoot, if you had indicated 2017 or 2018 I think it would be closer to the truth and perhaps Dozier will be a trade chip by then with either Santana or Polanco at 2B. And perhaps one of the kid catchers instead of Pinto as well.
    You're probably right on timeline

  10. #49
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I don't agree that they are punting on 2015 if they deal Dozier. That presumes several things:

    1. They get no help in 2015
    2. Rosario/Polanco/Someone+whatever they get<Dozier, nothing from a trade
    3. They don't trade for another 2B if they want, or sign one
    4. They have a real chance to be good in 2015

    This team can't score runs, and is still last/near last in starter ERA. You seem pretty sure they will be competitive next year, what is that based on? Are you sure they won't get MLB help in teh deal, that might offset the loss of Dozier (at a different position, say)?
    Rosario is scuffling at AA, Polanco is at A+. Neither one is going to be ready next spring. I think a Dozier trade may make sense at one point, but I'd much rather that his replacement earn the spot first rather than trading off a well above average piece of the future before that has happened. It made sense with Span given that there was no chance he played out his contract on a winner. It made sense with Revere given that he was worth more than what he could provide. It doesn't make sense with Dozier... not right now at least.

  11. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danchat View Post
    There are some people in this thread who are praising Fuld waaaay too much. Let's remember that he is a 4th OF at best and his current batting average is mostly luck. He will slump eventually and end up around .220. Ideally Fuld shouldn't be on this roster in 2015 and he probably won't be.
    I'm not seeing the excessive praise for Fuld, except for in the moment. I don't think anyone assumes better than a mean reversion for Fuld in BA. He is what he is, a 4th OF, only now forced into a starting role because an injured SS and Chris Freaking Parmelee are the alternatives in CF. It seems unlikely that the Twins would jettison him and replay the ridiculous nightmare of their own making that happened this season. Until they are certain that they have multiple CF options, and most importantly- with remaining options- I don't think Fuld is going anywhere for now.

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  13. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    That's kind of my point....they haven't "improved" their team beyond a year or two by signing these guys. The team isn't "growing" by adding those guys at all. That was exactly my point.
    But the team IS growing, all around the established guys. Both in MLB and in the minors. Both more established young players like Plouffe and Parmelee and newer additions like Gibson and Santana, and a bunch of prospects getting closer, such as Tonkin, Berrios and Polanco. The established guys only enhance this growth, unless they're blocking some phenom, and that's simply not the case. Some argue that May and Meyer have been blocked, but I don't buy that..yet.

  14. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lakeside View Post
    OF of the future could include Kvasnika. He seems to be regaining the confidence he had when at the U of M.

    Switch-hitter, corner outfielder. . .he is the long-shot who could possibly help in late 2015 or 2016.

    While I have not seen him personally, Harrison at FTM also sounds like someone who could be a surprise as a corner outfielder in time. Long way away though.
    I noticed that Kvasnicka hasn't been playing catcher anymore, so I guess he's a pure OF now? Maybe I was wrong to group him with Herrmann then, but at this point I would have thought that having flexibility to play C could really help his chances of at least getting a look in Sept '15. We know how much the management loves versatility!

  15. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    But the team IS growing, all around the established guys. Both in MLB and in the minors. Both more established young players like Plouffe and Parmelee and newer additions like Gibson and Santana, and a bunch of prospects getting closer, such as Tonkin, Berrios and Polanco. The established guys only enhance this growth, unless they're blocking some phenom, and that's simply not the case. Some argue that May and Meyer have been blocked, but I don't buy that..yet.

    A reasonable post, that I disagree with. The MLB team is not growing for the future. The minors might be, but other than Santana, zero players are on teh roster that came up for the first time this year. Signing Morales does not, imo, help them in 2 years, when Buxton and Sano are up for good (hopefully). I just don't see the growth of the MLB team right now. But I think disagreeing with me is reasonable.
    Lighten up Francis....

  16. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by stringer bell View Post
    Interesting to talk about the outfield going forward--Arcia is the surest thing. I hope he is solid the rest of the year. Buxton remains the future in center. I still think he will make his debut next year. He will need to make a Berrios-type jump next year. The remainder of this year and the AFL are crucial, as well. Rosario and Hicks are on the horizon. So far, Hicks has outhit Rosario at AA, but it is a SSS and Hicks is two years older. I can see Parmelee in a backup role and Trevor Plouffe logging considerable time in the outfield as soon as next year.
    Sano will end up in LF.
    Last edited by tarheeltwinsfan; 07-17-2014 at 08:56 PM.

  17. #55
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    Where we will be: KLaw and I feel that Sano will end up in LF.

  18. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by tarheeltwinsfan View Post
    Where we will be: KLaw and I feel that Sano will end up in LF.
    Close. From Klaw's latest article on the Top 50:

    The projection remains the same -- 35-40 homer power, .350+ OBPs, most likely in right field or at first base.

  19. #57
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    Optimistic proposition and following question.

    Despite possibly shaking off some initial rust, probably, let's assume the Santana of the second half is the same Santana, more or less, that he has been the first half. In other words, a work in progress, particularly in CF, but talented and dynamic, improving, a real spark plug for the team.

    Are you comfortable with him targeted as the principal CF option going in to 2015? With say Fuld, or similar, as competition/backup and Hicks and Rosario on the farm, getting close, waiting Buxton to jump them.

    Or do you feel we need to go a little more all in for a short-term veteran option?

    If Santana would, unfortunately, suddenly show regression, how would that change your thoughts.

    Im not so sure I'm not more concerned with a productive bat/player for LF, probably short term, unless there's someone out there under 30 who is deserving of a longer term deal.
    "Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."
    --Lou Brown

  20. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    Optimistic proposition and following question.

    Despite possibly shaking off some initial rust, probably, let's assume the Santana of the second half is the same Santana, more or less, that he has been the first half. In other words, a work in progress, particularly in CF, but talented and dynamic, improving, a real spark plug for the team.

    Are you comfortable with him targeted as the principal CF option going in to 2015? With say Fuld, or similar, as competition/backup and Hicks and Rosario on the farm, getting close, waiting Buxton to jump them.

    Or do you feel we need to go a little more all in for a short-term veteran option?

    If Santana would, unfortunately, suddenly show regression, how would that change your thoughts.

    Im not so sure I'm not more concerned with a productive bat/player for LF, probably short term, unless there's someone out there under 30 who is deserving of a longer term deal.
    Get a vet at CF, plug Santana in at SS.

  21. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    So where does this leave us in the short term for the balance of this season and 2015?
    balance of this season will be Santana/Fuld/Hicks

    2015 will depend on the Twins 2014 record and/or whether changes will be made because of that record. Too early to tell... One thing for sure, Buxton will likely start 2015 in AA and not in Minnesota at least until later in the season, depending on how he and the Twins are doing.
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  22. #60
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    This thread is a painful read.

    Why on Earth should the Twins trade on its only good, established, young players because he will be a FA in 5 years? His value will still be very high in 2-3 years. The Twins do have a couple of nice 2B prospects but they are still question marks and this team DOES NOT NEED more question marks on the field.

    Parmelee hasn't shown any indication that he has turned a corner. He had 40 some awesome AB's in June and 40 some terrible AB's in July. He's nothing more than backup OF'er.

    Finally some people have come to their senses on Fuld.

    Plouffe shouldn't be moved anywhere or traded until Sano is actually back at 3B and knocking on the MLB door. I'm not convinced Sano will be at 3B for long and Plouffe is actually a solid MLB 3Bman despite everyone's angst against him.

    The fact is that despite a supposed depth of OF'ers that almost everyone thinks the Twins have they actually have very little depth anywhere.

    People didn't like my Delmon Young comparison for Arcia a couple of months ago but that is what he is right now. He is an extremely talented raw hitter and he could be a star (so could have Delmon) but he has some big issues that need to be addressed at the MLB level before that happens.

    Hicks can still come back and be an MLB contributor but his upside has dropped a lot in the last couple of years. Right now I would be happy if he became an solid MLB starter.

    Buxton can still be an elite player and is really the only OF'er that the Twins have that I would feel comfortable inking in as an MLB starter in 4 years.

    Walker has hit HR's but can't manage a .300 OBP in A ball. The opposite is true of Harrison (not a 3B for long). He can't hit HR's.

    Kepler hasn't hit anything.

    The point is that the Twins OF is hardly an organizational strength that we have thought it was. It's full of players (aside from Buxton and Arcia) that you hope are able to become solid MLB starters but most likely disappoint. It's possible that someone goes Dozier out their depth but you can't count on it. Or it's possible that Rosario and Sano are moved to the OF. At that point the Twins have a good OF but at the price of depth at every other position.

    And 2014/2015 MLB OF most likely will be below average. Possibly terrible unless Arcia breaks out or Buxton is promoted early.

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