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Thread: Article: Back of the Napkin: How Far Are The 2013 Twins From Contention?

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    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    Article: Back of the Napkin: How Far Are The 2013 Twins From Contention?


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    "That isn’t good. The Indians are the only American League team that’s worse. The three teams who have the most runs over .500 also happen to be the division leaders. The outlier is the Orioles, who are 45 runs under .500 but still have a shot at the wild card. But for the most part, the teams that are around 40 games over .500 have a decent chance at a playoff spot."
    40 games over is 101 wins... 40 runs over?

  3. #3
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    It is all about starting pitching and one top pitcher and one prospect/arb-eligible good pitcher would guarantee a turnaround at 15 million a year combined for 3-4 years. Aside from that they have Gibson, Diamond, and Hendriks (really the next best three), and Walters, Vasquez, DeVries, Hernandez, Bromberg, Deduno, and Devries there as potentially capable 5th starters.

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    If your glass is empty because you drank what was in it, Diamond, Hendricks and Gibson are very good starters and all you need to pick up is another quality arm. From the rest of the collection there will come an adequate 5th starter. Perkins, Burton, Robertson, Fien, Duensing, Swarzak and Slama make a formidable bullpen. Arcia, Revere, Willingham, Doumit, Paramlee, Maurer, Morneau make for a formidable outfield/1b/C combo. Ploufe stays healthy and two competent slick fielding infielders make up the bottom. It make take a second glass to truly believe, but a fan has to have some hope.
    Last edited by old nurse; 08-28-2012 at 01:46 AM. Reason: forgot 2 pitchers

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    A new front office would help more!

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    Did I need to add that Jeff Gray is in AAA in case things go horribly wrong?

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    I think you have to start saying who do you want in the rotation next year. Right now I say Diamond is in, Hendricks probably deserves to be, but after that there isn't a ton out there. Walters was a so-so starter but has struggled pretty bad with his rehab starts in AAA. Gibson even if 100% I don't see the Twins pitching him more then 100 innings (prolly closer to 60 innings). So I wouldn't be surprised if he is put in the pen. DeVries is similar to Deduno are guys that I just don't see being effective in the majors long term. They may be able to hold the #5 spot but I just don't see long term MLB starter stuff in them. Deduno too many walks, DeVries just doesn't have major league stuff. It can last for awhile with them but it will catch up. Other then that Bromberg could make the roster, maybe they push Hermsen who has as much upside as any starter in the organization right now. But other then that I don't see much internally.

    So you start with
    Diamond
    Hendricks
    and then you have to wonder. I'm guessing 1 of the guys you mentions makes the team as the 5th starter but that means 2 have to be found for relatively cheap price. Could be a problem.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    They cannot compete with the current pitching staff
    So they must overpay for two starting pitchers:
    1 - 26 million a year
    2 - 8 - 10 million a year

    If the Twins refuse to pay market prices to fix this team, they need to follow the mold of the Red Sox and blow it all up.

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    My stating rotation, from existing options, would be Diamond, Hendriks, Gibson, Baker, and Bromberg. My preference would be to trade for a rookie arm; (say Span or Morneau for Randall Delgado or Mike Minor or a Texas arm), or sign someone in free agency (I would try to split the difference between a Marquis-type and a Greinke-type.

    A trade for MN-native Josh Johnson would also fit the bill, but that would take more than MLB-ready players.

    How about a Johnson-Baker-Diamond-Hendriks-Gibson rotation? That sounds at least average to me.

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    Twins Moderator MVP Riverbrian's Avatar
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    They are very close to being watchable but they are far from contention.

    Not enough positional depth at the moment to cover for the injuries down the line that will happen.

    And the pitching staff isn't even close. We can't just pick 5 arms and call it good. Some of those 5 guys will get hurt and some will flat out fail.

    We need choices at AAA as well. This may be the worst Starting pitching in all of baseball. It's a tough thing to fix and a long way to go.

    With that said... C'mon Twins... You can do it.

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    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    I've been in the "just need to improve the rotation to at least become competitive" camp all season. I'm not smart enough to know exactly how to do that, but if fans have to listen to the front office tell us that all the improvement needed is available internally, whether Gibson, Vasquez, a re-signed Baker, or any other combination of question marks, we'll know the organization isn't even trying to improve.

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    It shouldn't be hard to pull the team into mediocrity. One good FA pitcher, another scrub (Baker would be my choice), and one of Gibson/Hendriks to step up.

    To contend, it would require all that and a considerable dose of luck. Not impossible, but unlikely.

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    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    A FA pitcher, an arbi-eligible pitcher traded for Morneau, and Baker signed for cheap would cost less than $20 million. Easily done.

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    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    60 games under 500 over the last 2 years would cause most people to think maybe it's time to make some serious changes. But we get maybe a tweak here or there and we'll be ok. Don't trade anyone they are all great players, it's add one or two pitchers and we'll be a contender (around 500 in the Central) again.
    Getting to the end of two years of some very bad baseball and thinking this team is not far away is silly, imo. Our record is worse than the Royals the last two years, does anyone think the Royals are a player or two away from contending?

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    I still like Marcum as a free agent choice. Maybe look at Stephen Drew as a one or two year player who needs a chance to turn it around, Need some pitchers with stuff, not all of the soft tossers we have. Most of the Twins starters will get lit up by the better hitting clubs. Trade with Seattle or Tampa Bay will make sense if we can get some of their better prospects back.

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    Senior Member Triple-A Thegrin's Avatar
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    I've been watching baseball since 1955. High priced free agents rarely are a value. Trading position players for arms is almost always a very bad bargain. Look at the Twins arms we let go: Mays, Lohse, Bonser etc. Rarely was it a mistake. The only way seems to be to get one mediocre FA pitcher with proven durability, or a good but injury plagued starter and otherwise work with what we have.

  17. #17
    Here is what I would do to make a serious run:
    Trade Morneau for a prospect (unload his entire salary, so you won't likely get an MLB-ready SP back, but something of quality for the long-term, saves 14 mil)

    Sign Zack Greinke (29), 5-6 yrs, 22 mil
    Sign Anibal Sanchez (28), 4 yrs, 13 mil

    Position players remain the same except for Parmelee slides into 1B.
    Bullpen remains largely the same, adding back Duensing

    Starting Rotaion:
    1. Greinke
    2. Diamond
    3. Sanchez
    4. Hendricks
    5. Gibson, Baker (cheap, incentive laden deal), DeVries, Deduno, Walters, replacement level waiver claim, etc

    Total payroll would come in around 100 Mil and the core of the team would be signed through 2014.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nick5253 View Post
    Here is what I would do to make a serious run:
    Trade Morneau for a prospect (unload his entire salary, so you won't likely get an MLB-ready SP back, but something of quality for the long-term, saves 14 mil)

    Sign Zack Greinke (29), 5-6 yrs, 22 mil
    Sign Anibal Sanchez (28), 4 yrs, 13 mil

    Position players remain the same except for Parmelee slides into 1B.
    Bullpen remains largely the same, adding back Duensing

    Starting Rotaion:
    1. Greinke
    2. Diamond
    3. Sanchez
    4. Hendricks
    5. Gibson, Baker (cheap, incentive laden deal), DeVries, Deduno, Walters, replacement level waiver claim, etc

    Total payroll would come in around 100 Mil and the core of the team would be signed through 2014.
    If it were only that easy to sign quailty SP's.

    Grienke will get a minimum of 10 mill per season, probably more like 12-13 per..or higher.

    I'm not sure what Sanchez will command, but it will certainly be more than 3 mil per season.

    I don't see the Twins making any sort of splash in the free agent market. If they do, It will be of the low-end, washed veteran type...like Marquis, Pavano.

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    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cr9617 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by nick5253 View Post
    Here is what I would do to make a serious run:
    Trade Morneau for a prospect (unload his entire salary, so you won't likely get an MLB-ready SP back, but something of quality for the long-term, saves 14 mil)

    Sign Zack Greinke (29), 5-6 yrs, 22 mil
    Sign Anibal Sanchez (28), 4 yrs, 13 mil

    Position players remain the same except for Parmelee slides into 1B.
    Bullpen remains largely the same, adding back Duensing

    Starting Rotaion:
    1. Greinke
    2. Diamond
    3. Sanchez
    4. Hendricks
    5. Gibson, Baker (cheap, incentive laden deal), DeVries, Deduno, Walters, replacement level waiver claim, etc

    Total payroll would come in around 100 Mil and the core of the team would be signed through 2014.
    If it were only that easy to sign quailty SP's.

    Grienke will get a minimum of 10 mill per season, probably more like 12-13 per..or higher.

    I'm not sure what Sanchez will command, but it will certainly be more than 3 mil per season.

    I don't see the Twins making any sort of splash in the free agent market. If they do, It will be of the low-end, washed veteran type...like Marquis, Pavano.
    I'm pretty sure Nick's numbers are per year. I think Greinke will get in the $15-18m per year range while Jackson/Sanchez will be more in the $12-15m per year range. Then you have guys like Liriano, who will probably get somewhere in the $10m per year range.

    Of course, Greinke has spent the past 2-3 months systematically destroying his FA value. Hard to say what he'll get on the market. A lot is riding on his September and October, assuming the Angels even get to the postseason.

    In any case, there is no way the Twins sign a top shelf and a second tier FA pitcher. Even the Yankees can't accomplish that most seasons. The best they can hope for is to snag one of the second tier guys.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by cr9617 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by nick5253 View Post
    Here is what I would do to make a serious run:
    Trade Morneau for a prospect (unload his entire salary, so you won't likely get an MLB-ready SP back, but something of quality for the long-term, saves 14 mil)

    Sign Zack Greinke (29), 5-6 yrs, 22 mil
    Sign Anibal Sanchez (28), 4 yrs, 13 mil

    Position players remain the same except for Parmelee slides into 1B.
    Bullpen remains largely the same, adding back Duensing

    Starting Rotaion:
    1. Greinke
    2. Diamond
    3. Sanchez
    4. Hendricks
    5. Gibson, Baker (cheap, incentive laden deal), DeVries, Deduno, Walters, replacement level waiver claim, etc

    Total payroll would come in around 100 Mil and the core of the team would be signed through 2014.
    If it were only that easy to sign quailty SP's.

    Grienke will get a minimum of 10 mill per season, probably more like 12-13 per..or higher.

    I'm not sure what Sanchez will command, but it will certainly be more than 3 mil per season.

    I don't see the Twins making any sort of splash in the free agent market. If they do, It will be of the low-end, washed veteran type...like Marquis, Pavano.
    I'm pretty sure Nick's numbers are per year. I think Greinke will get in the $15-18m per year range while Jackson/Sanchez will be more in the $12-15m per year range. Then you have guys like Liriano, who will probably get somewhere in the $10m per year range.

    Of course, Greinke has spent the past 2-3 months systematically destroying his FA value. Hard to say what he'll get on the market. A lot is riding on his September and October, assuming the Angels even get to the postseason.

    In any case, there is no way the Twins sign a top shelf and a second tier FA pitcher. Even the Yankees can't accomplish that most seasons. The best they can hope for is to snag one of the second tier guys.
    Yes, those figures were per year. Obviously it will be hard to sign both, but I said "Here's what I would do" and you all likely don't know I'm extremely at gifted in pursuading free agent starting pitchers to come to Minnesota. The skill has not paid off for me yet, but someday....

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