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Thread: Attendance

  1. #1
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Attendance

    Official attendance Tuesday night at TF: 29854.

    I believe that's the first time in stadium history the crowd dipped below 30,000.

    Ruh-roh.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    Official attendance Tuesday night at TF: 29854.

    I believe that's the first time in stadium history the crowd dipped below 30,000.

    Ruh-roh.
    I just posted on that in the game thread, Chief. I brought this issue up in the previous thread about what the payroll will be next year, it's looking more and more like another cut is coming for 2013. I projected a drastic fall-off in September attendance, guess it's coming a few days early.

    In the other thread I proposed starting a pool to guess when the first sub-20000 game occurs. Do they play KC at home in September?

  3. #3
    i'd go if it weren't for my quadlateral hypothyroidism of the fourth metatarsal

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    According to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com, the Twins have placed Joe Mauer on revocable waivers.It's common practice in August for teams to place their players on waivers, so this isn't necessarily significant. If Mauer is claimed, the Twins could pursue a trade, assign his remaining contract to the claiming team or simply pull him back from waivers. Rosenthal speculates that the Red Sox could be a potential fit for Mauer at some point, but it would still be a surprise if he's moved. Mauer still has six years and $138 million left on his contract with Minnesota. Source: FOXSports.com

  5. #5
    I don't think we'll see sub-20k attendance this year, but of they're like this again next year, it'll happen

    EDIT: Discussion on another thread led me to clarify this - there will be a few games where we'll see sub-20k attendance, but attendance overall will be fine. My years of watching this team in the Dome and seeing decent attendance in that horrible facility convinced me that this is a pretty reliable baseball market, and they have a great facility now.
    Last edited by StormJH1; 08-29-2012 at 11:17 AM.

  6. #6
    Senior Member All-Star IdahoPilgrim's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post

    I just posted on that in the game thread, Chief. I brought this issue up in the previous thread about what the payroll will be next year, it's looking more and more like another cut is coming for 2013. I projected a drastic fall-off in September attendance, guess it's coming a few days early.

    In the other thread I proposed starting a pool to guess when the first sub-20000 game occurs. Do they play KC at home in September?
    Do you have some sort of objective evidence for this? I have yet to see any, one way or another.

  7. #7
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    What bring us to tonight's word:new stadiums. For years we've heard that in order to have good teams, franchises need new stadiums, to increase attendance. Actually, it is all the way around, good teams bring people to stadiums, and justify new facilities. You can have all the flashy new stadium that you want, but if your team is bad, after a couple of years, the stadium is going to be empty. See present Twins, see Gophers football. Vikings, please listen. I only hope that the Twins don't fall in the vicious circle of reducing payroll and poor teams because of reducing attendance, which in turn will reduce the attendance further.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by adjacent View Post
    What bring us to tonight's word:new stadiums. For years we've heard that in order to have good teams, franchises need new stadiums, to increase attendance. Actually, it is all the way around, good teams bring people to stadiums, and justify new facilities. You can have all the flashy new stadium that you want, but if your team is bad, after a couple of years, the stadium is going to be empty. See present Twins, see Gophers football. Vikings, please listen. I only hope that the Twins don't fall in the vicious circle of reducing payroll and poor teams because of reducing attendance, which in turn will reduce the attendance further.
    Future Shock

    or

    Rinse and Repeat (the real Twins mantra)


    Case in point regarding "the means to spend" argument which the Twins are in the process of completely blowing up:

    The Baltimore Orioles-

    on a hot streak,
    hottest team in August-playing 16-8 baseball, a .667 clip,
    revived from the dead for years on end to competitive,
    third best record in the AL,
    the best record in one-run games in baseball,
    only 3.5 games behind the best team in the league, the Yankees,
    playing in one of the best parks in all of baseball- Camden Yards,
    playing a first place team in the White Sox- with a Cy Young favorite on the mound, Chris Sale
    perfect night for baseball in Baltimore



    drew all of 12,841 fans last night.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by sbknudson View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post

    I just posted on that in the game thread, Chief. I brought this issue up in the previous thread about what the payroll will be next year, it's looking more and more like another cut is coming for 2013. I projected a drastic fall-off in September attendance, guess it's coming a few days early.

    In the other thread I proposed starting a pool to guess when the first sub-20000 game occurs. Do they play KC at home in September?
    Do you have some sort of objective evidence for this? I have yet to see any, one way or another.
    Yes, the Twins owners and FO statements over the past 12 months have stated that further cuts beyond the 2012 payroll reduction were possible and they have always maintained that payroll would always be based on a certain percentage of revenues. Revenues are clearly down this year and are apparently about to cascade even lower heading into September,

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by StormJH1 View Post
    I don't think we'll see sub-20k attendance this year, but of they're like this again next year, it'll happen
    Advance sales might preclude this prediction of the "actual attendance", but I would venture that Wednesday, September 12 vs. the Kansas City Royals might have less than 20000 actually watching the game in person.

  11. #11
    The Twins season ticket base will beep the attendance right around 28,000 for the rest of the season.No groups and no walk-up sales will happen. Most SMART people will buy unused stub-hub or grounds tickets for as low as a buck in September than pay full-price at a ticket window to sit high in the third deck, on the ends, in the Family section, or the sunshine of the outfield...where the available tickets thrive.
    Joel Thingvall
    www.thingvall.com
    rosterman at www.twinscards.com

  12. #12
    I generally agree with jokin that there's a good chance we see more payroll cuts next year. Not like 2010 --> 2011, where it went from $112k to $100k (or thereabouts). But would anybody be stunned if our opening day payroll is $95 million in 2013? $90 million?

    I wouldn't be surprised. All you have to do is listen to Terry Ryan talk about a "weak FA market for pitching" (which is garbage) and his general philosophy against long-term deals for pitchers...and put that together with the fact that we don't have a bunch of guys to re-sign, like we did from 2007-09. I think Baker is a wild card for next year, but really, what else are they going to do? If you name a pitcher out there like Annibal Sanchez, and Terry Ryan pulls out of negotiations as soon as the length gets over 3 years...well, some other team is going to offer more years and more money.

    Also, I reject the premise that the attendance decline is anything beyond what should have been expected. If you look at attendance history, teams tend to do well in attendance in years following a good year, even if the team isn't good. (Many of the tickets are bought in advance anyway, after all!). If a team is a bad, they'll do poorly unless the team shows signs of life. Add into that the "newness" effect wearing off at the ballpark, and I don't see why this is a surprise. The Twins were horrible in 2011, and horrible again in the start of 2012. And all of the offseason events suggested that: (a) Detroit was the clear favorite in the AL Central; and (b) The Wild Cards were likely to go to teams from either the AL East or AL West (especially with the Rangers and Angels in the same division). If the team was BAD in 2011, and had no expectation of being a realistic contender this year...where were the fans supposed to come from?

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Rosterman View Post
    The Twins season ticket base will beep the attendance right around 28,000 for the rest of the season.No groups and no walk-up sales will happen. Most SMART people will buy unused stub-hub or grounds tickets for as low as a buck in September than pay full-price at a ticket window to sit high in the third deck, on the ends, in the Family section, or the sunshine of the outfield...where the available tickets thrive.
    Hahaha. Props for a clever gardening reference.

    I'm out in the sunshine of LF 200 Level quite a bit, though I think those seats are fine for any night game, or even day games in September weather. In the dog days of June and July, though it can be pretty exhausting getting baked out there for 4 hours.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by adjacent View Post
    Actually, it is all the way around, good teams bring people to stadiums, and justify new facilities.
    This is not working for the Rays.


    You can have all the flashy new stadium that you want, but if your team is bad, after a couple of years, the stadium is going to be empty. See present Twins, see Gophers football. Vikings, please listen.
    Colorado Rockies, bad team for a couple years, averaging 33,000 a game.
    Twins, bad team for a couple years, averaging 35,000 a game.
    Mets, bad team for a couple years, averaging 29,000 a game.

    Every market is different. There isn't a hard and fast rule you can apply to new stadiums and attendance. As far as stadiums being 'empty' there are only a handful of ballparks that don't sell at least 50% of their seats each season. Typically it is Oakland, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Cleveland, Baltimore.
    "Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand."

  15. #15
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by StormJH1 View Post
    I generally agree with jokin that there's a good chance we see more payroll cuts next year. Not like 2010 --> 2011, where it went from $112k to $100k (or thereabouts). But would anybody be stunned if our opening day payroll is $95 million in 2013? $90 million?
    I believe that the opening day payroll will be $92 - $94 million. It will probably go up during the course of the season but I will be pleasantly surprised if it is higher than $94 million on opening day (barring some expensive injury in ST that they have to quickly replace).

  16. #16
    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by powrwrap View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by adjacent View Post
    Actually, it is all the way around, good teams bring people to stadiums, and justify new facilities.
    This is not working for the Rays.

    ...

    Every market is different. There isn't a hard and fast rule you can apply to new stadiums and attendance. As far as stadiums being 'empty' there are only a handful of ballparks that don't sell at least 50% of their seats each season. Typically it is Oakland, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Cleveland, Baltimore.
    I don't know what to think about Tampa -- sometimes I wonder if they wouldn't have mediocre attendance even if they had a new field (after the 1st year or two). I just wonder if there isn't something else going on in that market -- too many other entertainment options; too much outdoor fun, etc. Which is really too bad because the Rays seem to have a great organization.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by powrwrap View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by adjacent View Post
    Actually, it is all the way around, good teams bring people to stadiums, and justify new facilities.
    This is not working for the Rays.


    You can have all the flashy new stadium that you want, but if your team is bad, after a couple of years, the stadium is going to be empty. See present Twins, see Gophers football. Vikings, please listen.
    Colorado Rockies, bad team for a couple years, averaging 33,000 a game.
    Twins, bad team for a couple years, averaging 35,000 a game.
    Mets, bad team for a couple years, averaging 29,000 a game.

    Every market is different. There isn't a hard and fast rule you can apply to new stadiums and attendance. As far as stadiums being 'empty' there are only a handful of ballparks that don't sell at least 50% of their seats each season. Typically it is Oakland, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Cleveland, Baltimore.
    History of Baltimore attendance :

    2001: 38.8 (000) Rank overall: 5th
    2002: 33.1 10th
    2003: 30.3 12th
    2004: 34.3 12th
    2005: 32.4 14th
    2006: 26.6 20th
    2007: 27.0 23rd
    2008: 25.0 24th
    2009: 23.5 21st
    2010: 21.7 24th
    2011: 21.9 26th

    2012: average attendance in August in the thick of the race with the hottest team in baseball- 21.5!

    Does anyone else detect a trend? And a cautionary tale for the Twins?

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by powrwrap View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by adjacent View Post
    Actually, it is all the way around, good teams bring people to stadiums, and justify new facilities.
    This is not working for the Rays.

    ...

    Every market is different. There isn't a hard and fast rule you can apply to new stadiums and attendance. As far as stadiums being 'empty' there are only a handful of ballparks that don't sell at least 50% of their seats each season. Typically it is Oakland, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Cleveland, Baltimore.
    I don't know what to think about Tampa -- sometimes I wonder if they wouldn't have mediocre attendance even if they had a new field (after the 1st year or two). I just wonder if there isn't something else going on in that market -- too many other entertainment options; too much outdoor fun, etc. Which is really too bad because the Rays seem to have a great organization.
    Demographics, average age in the community is about 79.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by powrwrap View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by adjacent View Post
    Actually, it is all the way around, good teams bring people to stadiums, and justify new facilities.
    This is not working for the Rays.

    ...

    Every market is different. There isn't a hard and fast rule you can apply to new stadiums and attendance. As far as stadiums being 'empty' there are only a handful of ballparks that don't sell at least 50% of their seats each season. Typically it is Oakland, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Cleveland, Baltimore.
    I don't know what to think about Tampa -- sometimes I wonder if they wouldn't have mediocre attendance even if they had a new field (after the 1st year or two). I just wonder if there isn't something else going on in that market -- too many other entertainment options; too much outdoor fun, etc. Which is really too bad because the Rays seem to have a great organization.
    Demographics, average age in the community is about 79.
    They need more ground level seats. No, it is surprising. This should be one of the hottest teams in the market, and the Miami market should also be big. Can't quite figure this out. Lots of people in the general area with disposable income who live there and would like a ncie day in the park rather than spend time at a theme park.
    Joel Thingvall
    www.thingvall.com
    rosterman at www.twinscards.com

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rosterman View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JB_Iowa View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by powrwrap View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by adjacent View Post
    Actually, it is all the way around, good teams bring people to stadiums, and justify new facilities.
    This is not working for the Rays.

    ...

    Every market is different. There isn't a hard and fast rule you can apply to new stadiums and attendance. As far as stadiums being 'empty' there are only a handful of ballparks that don't sell at least 50% of their seats each season. Typically it is Oakland, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Cleveland, Baltimore.
    I don't know what to think about Tampa -- sometimes I wonder if they wouldn't have mediocre attendance even if they had a new field (after the 1st year or two). I just wonder if there isn't something else going on in that market -- too many other entertainment options; too much outdoor fun, etc. Which is really too bad because the Rays seem to have a great organization.
    Demographics, average age in the community is about 79.
    They need more ground level seats. No, it is surprising. This should be one of the hottest teams in the market, and the Miami market should also be big. Can't quite figure this out. Lots of people in the general area with disposable income who live there and would like a ncie day in the park rather than spend time at a theme park.
    Both areas have lots of old people on fixed incomes and lots of displaced people with displaced loyalties (the majority in each area is not originally from Florida)

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