09-10-2012, 11:44 PM #1
Difference in minor league philosiphy
2010 Draft difference in 2 same aged (2 month diff), same size, same basic collegiate competition
MN took 3 yr college player Nate Roberts in the 6th round out of High Point and assigned him to Rookie Lg ELIZ.
In 35 gms there, he had a line of .336/.444/.547 w/30r 10doubles 1triple 5hr 17rbi 29k 21bb 5/7sb. Very solid
Same draft, ARIZ took 4 yr college player Adam Eaton in the 19th round out of Miami (Ohio) and also assigned him to Rookie Lg Missoula.
In 68gms there .385/.500/.575 48runs 14doubles 4triples 7hr 37rbi 44k 35bb 20/28sb
Both excellent debuts....what do they both do next???
2011 MN sends Roberts to Low A. No problem as that is MNs way of doin things & they rarely deviate from that. Roberts battles some knee problems limiting him to 68gms .302/.443/.446 55runs 12doubles 4triples 4hr 34rbi 48k 28bb 9/13sb
ARIZ decides to challenge Eaton in High A as he's now their #30 prospect
Plays 65gms .332/.455/.492 54runs 15doubles 3triples 6hr 39rbi 41k 42bb 24/32sb.....then assigned to AA for 2nd half ...56gms .302/.409/.429 31runs 7doubles 4triples 4hr 28rbi 35k 30bb 10/16sb
After 1+ season, MN has the higher drafted player 2 levels below ARIZs...ok there is the next yr.
2012 MN has Roberts repeat Low A. Hmmm. Ok, still havin minor knee issues I guess.
76gms .299/.433/.427 60runs 18doubles 3triples 4hr 33rbi 37k 44bb 27/35sb....no promotion in season as MN decides its more important to have him play in Low A playoffs, before crowds of less than 1K nightly, than go to High A for better competition....despite their being no OFs in Ft Myers playing better than him.
Now their #12 prospect, ARIZ has Eaton also repeat AA....FOR 11GMS
.300/.450/.325 11runs 1double 3rbi 8k 6bb 6/7sb....nothing earthshattering but they stil want to challenge him.
Then up to AAA.....119gms @ hitting friendly PCL .381/.456/.539 119runs 46doubles 5triples 7HR 45rbi 76k 59bb 38/48sb
ARIZs NOT done..MLB promotion 5gms 10/25 .400/.423/.480 6runs 2doubles 3k 1bb 1/1sb
So MN takes the higher choice, he has great success but still has that player stuck in Low A for some reason.
ARIZ has taken the lower player, challenged him by promoting him quickly up level & have found out he's a MLB player.
This is only one piece of a bigger puzzle but its the reasoning on why MN has had one of the absolute worst records in baseball the past 2 yrs as this is how they veiw their minor league players/develpment..... things like playing in minor league playoffs bein more important than challenging a successful player to a new level or 2
09-11-2012, 12:47 AM #2
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Try some other comparison if similar players in playing in the systems actually make it to the major league. The goal is developing a major league talent. If you can find similar players that did not develop under the Twins but did in other systems you might have an argument.
09-11-2012, 05:06 AM #3
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09-11-2012, 08:12 AM #4
You're fighting a losing battle in here ggoblin.
Apparently station to station baseball is also acceptable in the minors advancing guys for some.
Roberts had nothing to prove in lo-A, and now they're putting him in the AZ Fall league. Hope he doesn't flop there, because he needed to see
Moving him up would have helped Max Kepler or Walker,who could have played lo-A ball for part of the year.
You're right, there were no FM outfielders, once Arcia was gone, that were so much better. Rams was playing some LF this year.
Again we consistently see the majority of the talent in the lower levels. Where they fizzle, only to have someone else they draft take a top spot in the org depth.
09-11-2012, 08:26 AM #5
Normally I'm quick to come up with reasons that a player stays back instead of getting pushed. I think that it was great for Kepler to stay in E-Town because he was mediocre the first year there and this year he was able to thrive. As for Walker, yes, he hit a lot of home runs, but he also struckout a ton. I'm not sure pushing him to Beloit would have made a lot of sense. Danny Ortiz was moved from Beloit to Ft. Myers after about a month this year. I also think that the Twins invested enough in Danny Rams that they needed to give him a shot. I can come up with reasons for about everything. I'm even completely good with the idea of letting players play in the playoffs with the team they've been with once it's into late July or early August. To me, that's fair.
But I can't come up with one for Roberts. Once he showed he was healthy, he should have been moved up. (That was probably in about mid-June.) In my opinion. I mean to Ft. Myers... there really isn't a comparison between him and Eaton at this point because of the injuries.
09-11-2012, 08:32 AM #6
Players can fizzleout because they don't get promotedwhen they should. Roberts, of course, hasn't fizzled out yet and I hope they are aggressive next year. He is the kind of player who should be fine in A+ and the real test will come in AA. This is also a team that mistakenly demoted Joe Benson back to AA instead of having him work it out up where he belongs. Same for Tosoni. But, you know, Clete Thomas was too important at AAA . . .
I suspect the Fort Myers OF will be Roberts-Ortiz-Morales.
09-11-2012, 08:33 AM #7
Investing in Danny Rams as a catcher is one thing, as an outfielder is kind of a joke. No future for that guy.
09-11-2012, 08:52 AM #8
09-11-2012, 09:00 AM #9
Are we really complaining about how the Twins advance hitting prospects? This organization has been churning out very good hitting prospects for over ten years now. Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Span, Revere, Parmelee... In the wings, they have Arcia, Hicks, Rosario, Sano, and Buxton.
Hitting isn't the problem and I don't think we should be complaining about how the Twins advance their position prospects. They've done a very good job of preparing these guys for Major League pitching.
09-11-2012, 09:29 AM #10
Besides that, there still is a sense of merit for achievement and proper development guys deserving a chance, right? I don't know, I have a sense of justice that gets bothered by this kind of thing (Slama the biggest pitching example). That's not a consideration everyone is going to share.
But besides that I am not optimistic about how the Twins are going to treat Arcia and Hicks this year--I could see them "Parmeleeing" both of them for 2013 and then STILL be left with question marks for 2014. Or I could see them "Doziering" both of them and STILL be left with question marks for 2014. Consistent promotions through AAA (with at least 200 PA there) just makes sense to me.
09-11-2012, 09:30 AM #11
09-11-2012, 09:52 AM #12
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Lots of things wrong with the premise of this post - the idea that one player represents the system is a bit of a reach. Eaton, I would think, fell in part because he's short but he showed that he was the better player and could stay healthy. I'm also not sure if Roberts was blocked by better OFers.
Twins have had some guys go fast through the minors - Hendriks, for example, missed all of his age 19 season and maybe had pitched 250 minor league innings under his belt before he was called up.
09-11-2012, 01:03 PM #13
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It's also frighteningly apparent that the Twins haven't been able to produce a respectable slugger since Morneau. That may change in the near future, but I'd argue that "churning out very good hitters for ten years" is a bit of an exaggeration. I can't think of a season in the last 10 years where they had a fearsome lineup.
Last edited by Alex; 09-11-2012 at 01:09 PM.
09-11-2012, 01:13 PM #14
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09-11-2012, 02:09 PM #15
When starting this post, it wasnt totally about Eaton/Roberts but rather about how slow everday players are promoted.
Can you name the last everyday player to make his MLB debut 2 full yrs after their draft....i cant as Mauer was the beginning of his 3rd
Other teams fairly regularly do. Why not here. Im just frustrated but its not only the FOffice as Gardy has never been a fan of younger players....he prefers the Carsons over the Hicks
Last edited by greengoblinrulz; 09-11-2012 at 02:13 PM.
09-11-2012, 02:18 PM #16
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09-11-2012, 02:40 PM #17
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As for Mauer, there was no reason he needed to spend an entire year at Beloit. He did just fine coming out of AA, but he probably would have been even more prepared had he already been in AAA which likely would have happened if he would have split a season between Beloit and Ft. Myers.
I don't have a huge issue with how the Twins handle the guys from A+ ball up. The problem is Beloit. For some reason the Twins think every HS draftee needs to work out all their kinks in low A ball instead of using that level as a rest stop on their way to Ft. Myers where the real coaches and instructors are. Arcia got out of Wisconsin early last year and maybe that's a sign the orgainzation is ready to change, but forcing everyone to spend an entire year there turns it into a waiting room, not a development camp.
09-11-2012, 03:10 PM #18
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I don't have a problem with holding a high schooler or an international player back an extra year. But the 22-23 year old college draftees need to be pushed through the system. It needs to be a they flamed out or they succeeded, not a well he wasn't 100% ready so we kept him an extra year in low A.
09-11-2012, 04:09 PM #19
The main issue is that the Twins don't seem to like the idea of using every level in the minors as a place for prospects to get time. That is, they think of AAA as merely a dumping ground for so-called "veterans" like Joe Thurston and Clete Thomas (being older does not make one a veteran). The result is that there can be a logjam that develops and there clearly is one in terms of OF prospects. Beloit next year is going to be packed with them somehow.
09-11-2012, 06:47 PM #20
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