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Thread: Josh Johnson

  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I would roll the die on Johnson. Given his health and salary, it should take Revere or something like that to get him, something I would do with Hicks and Arcia available.
    If the Twins could get Shields for Span and Johnson for Revere plus a couple low prospects, do both deals and let Mastroianni handle CF until Hicks is ready.

  2. #22
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Nelson View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    People seem to take the attitude that Shields is a number one pitcher but often say Baker is nothing more than a number three. Reality doesn't jibe with that evaluation. Both pitchers (when healthy) are nearly identical.
    Here's the thing: his ability to stay healthy is what MAKES Shields a borderline No. 1. The guy hasn't missed a start in six years. Teams value that kind of reliability very highly. You may be right that he's not likely to be an upper-echelon ace in terms of production (though over the last two years he basically has been) but I suspect he's exactly what the Twins are looking for in a guy who could lead their unstable rotation.
    He was an upper echelon guy in 2011. This season, he's a decent pitcher, nothing more. In 2010, he was pretty bad. The only years he's been way above average are 2008 and 2011. His durability is certainly an asset and I noted that in an earlier post but if we're talking about pure production, he's not an ace and the Twins shouldn't be considering giving up too many assets to get the guy. If the Rays are willing to talk reasonably about a trade, I'm all for it but the Span+Parmelee+Prospect is too much for a guy who probably won't pitch much better than his $11m contract pays him.

    If the Twins are going to pay a guy $11m a year for two years, why shouldn't they simply go get an Edwin Jackson for that kind of money and keep Span & Co? It's a bad baseball decision to give up that much for a guy who is paid that much when there are similar FA options out there for the same kind of money.

  3. #23
    Senior Member All-Star Boom Boom's Avatar
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    I don't think we're really disagreeing necessarily. I just think the Rays could get a better offer for Shields than Span.

    The Rays are constantly looking to unload payroll and trading Shields for Span doesn't really accomplish that. I think they'd be more likely to take Hicks for Shields straight up than Span for Shields.

    Also, I don't think Ben Revere has much trade value at all.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by mk View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I would roll the die on Johnson. Given his health and salary, it should take Revere or something like that to get him, something I would do with Hicks and Arcia available.
    If the Twins could get Shields for Span and Johnson for Revere plus a couple low prospects, do both deals and let Mastroianni handle CF until Hicks is ready.
    Really? I can see maybe Span and a mid level prospect for Shields. But Revere for Johnson? First of all the Marlins need pitching just as bad as we do. Why would they give up their ACE? Seems like a lot of people on here are under the belief that when you throw a quarter in a wishing well their dreams will come true. Well hey everyone....WE ARE NOT GETTING JOSH JOHNSON. Shields is a possibility but i cant see that either. they have Desmond Jennings groomed for center field, Zobrist who can play left or right, and Matt Joyce as well.

  5. #25
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boom Boom View Post
    Also, I don't think Ben Revere has much trade value at all.
    Agreed. I think his value is almost nothing at this point. If he had continued with a .300+ avg and .340 OBP, his value would be quite a bit higher but he tailed off significantly at the end of the season (as some of us predicted he would).

  6. #26
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer J-Dog Dungan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mk View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I would roll the die on Johnson. Given his health and salary, it should take Revere or something like that to get him, something I would do with Hicks and Arcia available.
    If the Twins could get Shields for Span and Johnson for Revere plus a couple low prospects, do both deals and let Mastroianni handle CF until Hicks is ready.
    Really? I can see maybe Span and a mid level prospect for Shields. But Revere for Johnson? First of all the Marlins need pitching just as bad as we do. Why would they give up their ACE? Seems like a lot of people on here are under the belief that when you throw a quarter in a wishing well their dreams will come true. Well hey everyone....WE ARE NOT GETTING JOSH JOHNSON. Shields is a possibility but i cant see that either. they have Desmond Jennings groomed for center field, Zobrist who can play left or right, and Matt Joyce as well.
    They (the Marlins) might need pitching as bad as we do, but if they see a chance to improve their team (ala Johan Santana except actually getting valued prospects), then 8.5/10 you take the deal. If we give them (the Rays) Span, they can put Jennings on the bench, where his stats really say he should belong if a Denard Span came along, not to mention the defensive stability going from B.J. Upton to a guy like Span.

  7. #27
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    The first challenge is trying to understand the Marlins' motives. I dont' follow the Marlins closely but from here it looks like their owner(s) are awfully impulsive and may be less than hardcore baseball fans. Who's to say they wouldn't deal a Johnson or Buehrle just as a salary dump?

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by J-Dog Dungan View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mk View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    I would roll the die on Johnson. Given his health and salary, it should take Revere or something like that to get him, something I would do with Hicks and Arcia available.
    If the Twins could get Shields for Span and Johnson for Revere plus a couple low prospects, do both deals and let Mastroianni handle CF until Hicks is ready.
    Really? I can see maybe Span and a mid level prospect for Shields. But Revere for Johnson? First of all the Marlins need pitching just as bad as we do. Why would they give up their ACE? Seems like a lot of people on here are under the belief that when you throw a quarter in a wishing well their dreams will come true. Well hey everyone....WE ARE NOT GETTING JOSH JOHNSON. Shields is a possibility but i cant see that either. they have Desmond Jennings groomed for center field, Zobrist who can play left or right, and Matt Joyce as well.
    They (the Marlins) might need pitching as bad as we do, but if they see a chance to improve their team (ala Johan Santana except actually getting valued prospects), then 8.5/10 you take the deal. If we give them (the Rays) Span, they can put Jennings on the bench, where his stats really say he should belong if a Denard Span came along, not to mention the defensive stability going from B.J. Upton to a guy like Span.
    How do you improve your team by trading your ACE for Ben Revere? That doesnt make to much sense. Maybe they would take a trade Such as Revere and Arcia and another mid level prospect for Josh Johnson. Dont get me wrong I like Revere, but there is no way the Marlins sell low on Johnson, there team will not be improved by moving their ACE for a 3rd/4th OF. So one bad year from Jennings you think the Rays will give up on him? I dont believe that is so. Just last year he was regarded as a top prospect in the game.

  9. #29
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    The Marlins are not building for next year. They have already indicated they will be cutting payroll probably. I think Johnson will be traded to someone.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    The Marlins are not building for next year. They have already indicated they will be cutting payroll probably. I think Johnson will be traded to someone.
    This i do agree with. Just wont be with the Twins.

  11. #31
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    The only way they should trade for Johnson is if he agrees to assign an extension as soon as the trade happens. They should not be trading prospects for one year rentals when they've lost 90 games two years in a row.

  12. #32
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    Has anyone thought about how trading for these players will affect the Twins payroll? TR has said he has some flexibility, but I'm not sure the management would be ok with adding too much payroll after back to back 90 loss campaigns.

  13. #33
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpantheMan View Post
    Has anyone thought about how trading for these players will affect the Twins payroll? TR has said he has some flexibility, but I'm not sure the management would be ok with adding too much payroll after back to back 90 loss campaigns.
    If ownership has even the smallest amount of foresight, they'll realize that nothing kills attendance faster than 90 loss teams.

    That doesn't mean the Pohlads won't slash payroll but it does mean that it would be the stupidest thing they could do in this situation. They spent ten years building up fan goodwill and building attendance slowly over that time period and to crush that in two years by slashing payroll and churning out bad baseball teams would be absolutely idiotic.

  14. #34
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    As neither Johnson or Shields have long term contracts, you would only trade for them if you thought by adding them you would be contending next year. The Twins are a long way from contending unless you believe that Diamond is for real, Gibson and Baker can put in a full season., and Hendricks can be solid. You can wait out Gibson and Baker if you believe that Deduno and DeVries can hold down the spot short term. I don't think you can be that optimistic. IMO Span is the only player the Twins have that you could call established that they can trade for some pitching. In the long term, the Twins would be better off trading him to a team that has some pitching depth for a B+ pitching prospect or two. Trading for Shields or Johnson is a bandaid at best. The Twins need more than a bandaid.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SpantheMan View Post
    Has anyone thought about how trading for these players will affect the Twins payroll? TR has said he has some flexibility, but I'm not sure the management would be ok with adding too much payroll after back to back 90 loss campaigns.
    If ownership has even the smallest amount of foresight, they'll realize that nothing kills attendance faster than 90 loss teams.

    That doesn't mean the Pohlads won't slash payroll but it does mean that it would be the stupidest thing they could do in this situation. They spent ten years building up fan goodwill and building attendance slowly over that time period and to crush that in two years by slashing payroll and churning out bad baseball teams would be absolutely idiotic.
    The payroll that could be added from the revenue of the new stadium was taken up largely by the contracts of Morneau and Mauer. At that time the Morneau contract really was a no brainer considering his production. Who could foresee the knee to the brain? The Pohlads did not take the loss of value out of the team's pocket and as such the team has suffered.

  16. #36
    Senior Member All-Star Boom Boom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    As neither Johnson or Shields have long term contracts, you would only trade for them if you thought by adding them you would be contending next year. The Twins are a long way from contending unless you believe that Diamond is for real, Gibson and Baker can put in a full season., and Hendricks can be solid. You can wait out Gibson and Baker if you believe that Deduno and DeVries can hold down the spot short term. I don't think you can be that optimistic. IMO Span is the only player the Twins have that you could call established that they can trade for some pitching. In the long term, the Twins would be better off trading him to a team that has some pitching depth for a B+ pitching prospect or two. Trading for Shields or Johnson is a bandaid at best. The Twins need more than a bandaid.
    All very very true.

    I do think that Span will be traded, but I think the Twins would be better off sniping an AA or AAA pitcher for him than one who's already established. That is, if they can identify a guy who is ready to take the next step.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    The Marlins are not building for next year. They have already indicated they will be cutting payroll probably. I think Johnson will be traded to someone.
    Yeah, mlbtraderumors said the same. I imagine they might try to work out an extension with him (do they have the funds to do so?) and if that fails they will trade him prior to the season.

    Marlins are in complete rebuilding mode at this point.

  18. #38
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    As neither Johnson or Shields have long term contracts, you would only trade for them if you thought by adding them you would be contending next year. The Twins are a long way from contending unless you believe that Diamond is for real, Gibson and Baker can put in a full season., and Hendricks can be solid. You can wait out Gibson and Baker if you believe that Deduno and DeVries can hold down the spot short term. I don't think you can be that optimistic. IMO Span is the only player the Twins have that you could call established that they can trade for some pitching. In the long term, the Twins would be better off trading him to a team that has some pitching depth for a B+ pitching prospect or two. Trading for Shields or Johnson is a bandaid at best. The Twins need more than a bandaid.
    Or you could trade for them with the intention to lock them up long term. It really is the best option as the Twins don't have an "ace" in the system, and they don't have the capabilities to trade for some young stud pitcher.

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    As neither Johnson or Shields have long term contracts, you would only trade for them if you thought by adding them you would be contending next year. The Twins are a long way from contending unless you believe that Diamond is for real, Gibson and Baker can put in a full season., and Hendricks can be solid. You can wait out Gibson and Baker if you believe that Deduno and DeVries can hold down the spot short term. I don't think you can be that optimistic. IMO Span is the only player the Twins have that you could call established that they can trade for some pitching. In the long term, the Twins would be better off trading him to a team that has some pitching depth for a B+ pitching prospect or two. Trading for Shields or Johnson is a bandaid at best. The Twins need more than a bandaid.
    Pursuant to the "Rule of Zach Parise", Josh Johnson will obviously force a trade to his hometown team, and coerce another pending FA to join him!

    Agree with your take though, even if the "rental player" status (plus the fact that the Marlins get destroyed in virtually every trade they make) keeps the price down, why would you do that if you're the Twins? Payroll's going down, not up, and even for one year, that would be hard to swallow, given the fact that we arguably need 3 OK starters more than we need one good one.

    As much as guys like Joe Saunders kind of suck, you could stitch together an argument that it would make a bigger difference in the win/loss column adding 3 serviceable guys like that, versus one upper-end guy (like Grienke or even Sanchez) and then having to fill out two other spots with Cole DeVries, Blackburn, or another random AAA starter because you're out of money. Plus, those guys won't sign here, and we won't offer enough years to get them.

  20. #40
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    I would take Josh Johnson only with an extension argeement in place. Believe his price would be lower than Shields. Better bet is to trade Parmalee to Tampa Bay for one of their AAA or major league bullpen. I would inquire on the price for Shields, but believe Tampa would want at least one of the Twins top prospects and that does not solve any problems.
    Second note, believe payroll number will still be in the 90-1100 milllion range so some FA signings are possible (Steven Drew anyone)

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