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Thread: Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects

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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects


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    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    as always, hard to deal with those lists... And really if you look you have Buxton who has proven nothing and Gibson who has proven something (and even more in the AFL) vs Hicks who by any means I can count is "it" and Hermsen who just deserves it. Hard to argue with this list on the top other than I love Buxton's and Kepler's potential but I do have to see more...

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    Junior Member Rookie gilesferrell's Avatar
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    #6 is the right spot for Gibson. But, he is having a terrific performance in the AFL, so he should be in the discussion for Top 5.

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    Just curious, what is it that causes you to rank Bard third among this year's pitching draft class? There were half a dozen guys who were lights out but he was not one of them.

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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Just curious, what is it that causes you to rank Bard third among this year's pitching draft class? There were half a dozen guys who were lights out but he was not one of them.
    His draft status means that he's thought of more highly than those other guys. When healthy, he can be very good. He will likely get the opportunity to start which (in my opinion) is more valuable than relieving. Also, it's hard to make much of anything that happens in 15-20 games (especially remember that a couple of those relievers will move to starters next spring and we'll learn a lot more about them then).

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    Senior Member Triple-A maxisagod's Avatar
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    Vargas at 9 is very aggressive, fun! Why did you rate Jorge Polanco ahead of Levi Michael and Niko Goodrum? Is it all glove or do you think Jorge will out hit the other two?

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    Has Angel Morales really fallen so far? He's still listed as the #10 prospect on Twins site. He hasn't shown much in a couple of years because of injuries, but to not even show up in the top 50?

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    Quote Originally Posted by maxisagod View Post
    Vargas at 9 is very aggressive, fun! Why did you rate Jorge Polanco ahead of Levi Michael and Niko Goodrum? Is it all glove or do you think Jorge will out hit the other two?
    Goodrum probably has the highest upside offensively. I've never been real high on Michael. Polanco finally did something this year, and he's so young. In reality, I think the main point about the three of these guys is they're all in the same range. As of right now, I rank them Polanco, Michael, Goodrum, but of course, that's subject to change.

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    Vargas(SSS), Hermsen(disappearing K rate), and Wimmers(control, then injury) all feel overrated imo. Hudson Boyd and especially Levi Michael feel low. I can understand the drop with disappointing seasons but mid 20's seems overly harsh.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer righty8383's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScottyB View Post
    Has Angel Morales really fallen so far? He's still listed as the #10 prospect on Twins site. He hasn't shown much in a couple of years because of injuries, but to not even show up in the top 50?
    That same site has Kyle Gibson at 16, Max Kepler at 18 and Adrien Salcedo at 7. Its as if thier not even trying. To get back to your original question, yes, Morales has fallen that far. He had one decent offensive season and that was in the hitter friendly Appalachian league. Since then he has been a strikeout machine who has hit for little power.

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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScottyB View Post
    Has Angel Morales really fallen so far? He's still listed as the #10 prospect on Twins site. He hasn't shown much in a couple of years because of injuries, but to not even show up in the top 50?
    The short answer is "Yes!" A few years ago, I ranked him #3 in the organization, and I kept him in the Top 10 for awhile. The guy is an incredible athlete with great talent, but last year was a mess. He had a great first 2 weeks and then struggled like crazy the rest of the year. HE is terrific defensively. He has great speed and a strong arm. That said, I believe that he can be a guy that goes up to AA and does better. We'll see.

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    Prospects are prospects and notting more, only a very few will ever make it, and who's
    to know who they wil ever be.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer righty8383's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Top Gun View Post
    Prospects are prospects and notting more, only a very few will ever make it, and who's
    to know who they wil ever be.
    I think that anyone who follows baseball closely(everyone on this site) is fully aware of this.

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    When people say only a few will ever make it, it gets me thinking. In the top 10, there are a few who will certainly make it. Hicks and arcia could probably be 4th outfielders right now. Gibson will make it unless his arm falls off. How much would it take or Sano to not make it?

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    1. I think your Joe Benson is rated too high. I know that position should not be a major deciding factor, but with 4 other OFs ahead of him in the top 10, his chances of making it have been severely diminished.

    2. To a lesser extent, same with Adrian Salcedo. His 2012 campagin was a major setback and there is no way that he should be considered a top 15 prospect. Alex Wimmer is also rated way too high. He has only pitched 45 innings in the past two years. same with Matt Summers. You need to have BJ Hermsen rated ahead of either just for production, Hudson Boyd for potential, and Luke Bard also for highly drafted potential.

    3. Danny Santana is ranked way too high for a guy with a sub-300 OBP at Elizabethton/Beloit. His HR pop is nice, but not signficant. He certainly cannot be seen as highly of a prospect as Dozier, who performed much better at those levels.

    4. All of the college relief arms that the Twins drafted need to be considered much higher than they are.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Just curious, what is it that causes you to rank Bard third among this year's pitching draft class? There were half a dozen guys who were lights out but he was not one of them.
    His draft status means that he's thought of more highly than those other guys. When healthy, he can be very good. He will likely get the opportunity to start which (in my opinion) is more valuable than relieving. Also, it's hard to make much of anything that happens in 15-20 games (especially remember that a couple of those relievers will move to starters next spring and we'll learn a lot more about them then).
    so because he was drafted higher , he is better? wonder if mike piazza thinks that way,
    also a reliever in college and we are going to transorm him here?why not just draft say gausman or zimmerman?

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    I like your list and find myself intrigued with the kids from the Appy League. I watched the Appy league over the last few years and have a special feeling about several of those kids. As teams draft on potential and look for that special "Thing / Tool" from each draftee - You could see some of those Tools on display with these kids and see them only getting better through the system (regardless if it was only the Appy League). From Buxton to Berrios to Duffy to Melotakis to Walker to Chargois to Palanco to even Burris who was lights out with a crazy fast ball and curve ball. I'd like to know what the coaches thought of these guys after a short season and instructionals.

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    wow and you dont even have slama in the top 50 ?
    so much for stats huh...hermsen is rated high and heres a kid with a below average fastball no out pitch who the twins hope and believe can be a back of the rotation starter , maybe a decent #4 or 5 guy , and once again athony gets dissed

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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Top Gun View Post
    Prospects are prospects and notting more, only a very few will ever make it, and who's
    to know who they wil ever be.
    Of course, this is correct. However, I would (or at least could) argue that the more good prospects a team has, the more likely that one or two will turn out. Also, I'm not looking for superstars (although I think the first 7 on this list could potentially be), and it's important to realize that those in the 30s could be valuable big league relievers, and that utility infielders have good careers. And also, these guys work hard and deserve to be recognized.

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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mlhouse View Post
    1. I think your Joe Benson is rated too high. I know that position should not be a major deciding factor, but with 4 other OFs ahead of him in the top 10, his chances of making it have been severely diminished.

    2. To a lesser extent, same with Adrian Salcedo. His 2012 campagin was a major setback and there is no way that he should be considered a top 15 prospect. Alex Wimmer is also rated way too high. He has only pitched 45 innings in the past two years. same with Matt Summers. You need to have BJ Hermsen rated ahead of either just for production, Hudson Boyd for potential, and Luke Bard also for highly drafted potential.

    3. Danny Santana is ranked way too high for a guy with a sub-300 OBP at Elizabethton/Beloit. His HR pop is nice, but not signficant. He certainly cannot be seen as highly of a prospect as Dozier, who performed much better at those levels.

    4. All of the college relief arms that the Twins drafted need to be considered much higher than they are.
    All fair points which is why the title of the blog includes my name. I definitely encourage people to post their own blogs with their Top 20s or Top 50s or whatever.

    I try not to let injuries factor into my rankings too much. Kyle Gibson missed a year with Tommy John and I don't think I ever had him lower than #7. Wimmers was hurt last year and had Tommy John. Salcedo rehabbed a shoulder injury most of last year. Benson had about 3 different injuries last year. It is difficult to determine how much a guy should fall due to injury. Benson moved down 6 spots for me. Salcedo and Wimmers each dropped a few as well.

    Also, Matt Summers threw 148.1 innings last year. Low K total, but having seen him pitch, he's got the stuff. I can't believe he won't strike more out.

    I fully admit that I'm a Danny Santana believer. I've seen him play a few times and (maybe that clouds my judgment some) I think he's going to be good. Don't get me wrong... I had Dozier ranked #11 last year. To me, that was a spot where he could be a solid every day big leaguer, not an all-star, but a contributor. Likewise, I'm not saying that Santana will be an All-Star, but his tools are incredible and I think he can stick at SS. And if he puts together another solid year next year in New Britain, he could move up a few more spots. Or, if he doesn't post a .300 OBP again, he could drop precipitously. I definitely acknowledge I'm out on a limb on Santana.

    Regarding the college relievers, you're probably right... It's actually unusual for me to include this many relief pitchers in my rankings. Not that I don't respect the position. I just have a hard time ranking guys that will pitch 60-70 innings ahead of guys that will throw 170+ innings. But the Twins definitely have some power arms in their system now.

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