10-30-2012, 08:34 PM #1
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Article: How Much Is It Worth To Twins To Avoid Multi-Year Contracts?
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?11...-for-a-Starter
10-30-2012, 10:41 PM #2
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Bill Petti at Fangraphs has an interesting series on velocity trends and age. The gist of it is that pitchers who lose 1mph or more year over year are at a higher risk for further velocity loss and ineffectualness in year 3. Petti used as his sample all pitchers who pitched in 3 consecutive seasons between 2002 and 2011 in the same role (either SP or RP):
91% of pitchers that do finish a season down at least 1 mph compared to the previous season will lose additional velocity the following season (average decline of 1.6 mph), with only 7% regaining some (but, likely, not all) of that velocity back.
By contrast, James Shields has actually gained a full 1.0 mph on his fastball year over year, and there's a very good chance he maintains some or all of that gain next year. He is a much more appealing trade target I think.
I'm sure Haren would never have it, but I'd be tempted to put him into a fireman role. With his splitter, he has virtually no lefty-righty split and a move to the pen would almost guarantee a velocity gain more or less equivalent to what he lost last year. Give him ~40 7th or 8th inning leads and just let him close out the game, finish the year around 100 IP. One quick shot through the batting order.
10-31-2012, 08:37 PM #3
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I'm all for trading something small for Haren. He had some back issues last season which likely are the cause of this velocity decrease. If he comes back healthy I think he can be a good #2. If he has a good season then the Twins can at least give him a qualifying offer or try to work out an extension.