11-13-2012, 03:28 PM #41
My Next question would be this then... What GM would design a baseball team to win 85 games specifically? That point will never make any sense to me. I would never want to be hung up on a specific number.
The Gist of it... Is get into the playoffs? It doesn't matter if you win 80 or 100... just get in... Don't place your eggs in one year... Build something that can challenge for the playoffs every year. That increases your chances of winning it. Play meaningful baseball in September... That way you'll know for sure what kind of players you have. Have something for the players to get up and look forward to.
As for the the "pretty freaking far from 85" comment. On Paper I agree... Common sense... I Disagree... 19 more wins gets you to 85. 1 more win every 8.5 games is not freaking far at all. It's baseball... Everybody is close! Some Pitching would help immensely.
11-13-2012, 04:48 PM #42
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11-13-2012, 05:06 PM #43
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http://goo.gl/lxSM9. Basically, it says that mathematically, you can't determine the true best team in a 7 game series, even if one team is significantly better. For instance, if one team has a 2/3 probability of winning, then they would need to have best of 23 game series to have the better team come out on top 95% of the time...Click the link for more probability and examples from the book The Drunkards Walk: How randomness rules our lives by Leonard Mlodinow (highly recommended).
11-13-2012, 07:37 PM #44
I'll throw out a different question out there that I'm turning over in my head: under what circumstances should a MLB team play for next year versus playing for some year down the road? We could use the Twins as a case in point, if you like....
The advantage to reloading and trying again next year is that it is one more shot at winning a winnable division. Plus, there is still quite a bit of talent that is not a sure thing to be around in future years. Finally, it's not like any money saved this year can be put towards future years when talend and payroll climb. It's just pocketed.
The advantage to wiping off next year - maybe you invest in players that use that time to develop. Maybe the prospects that are receive in a trade become pieces in the future (or mabye they don't.) I'm having trouble thinking of others.
I'm not sure the Twins are clearly on one side or the other. But I think unless I know there is a pretty clear path toward winning in the future, I'd prefer to play for any given year.
11-13-2012, 08:26 PM #45
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A couple of others said it, and I'll echo. An 88 win team in a tough division may very well be better than a 95 win team in a weak division. That's what the unbalanced schedule does.
I really hope that it is no one's goal to simply make the playoffs.. This bugs me. The goal is the series. The playoffs is a stepping stone to getting there, but if the focus is only on the playoffs, then you've missed the point.
11-13-2012, 10:05 PM #46
Who's right? Lets see who gets there first.
11-13-2012, 10:07 PM #47
11-14-2012, 01:27 AM #48
The other option, I think, requires that you rush too many prospects. Attempting to reload solves two problems. 1) You don't punt on this season. 2) You delay rushing prospects to the majors and save some money over the long term.