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Thread: Baseball Prospectus Top 10 Twins Prospects

  1. #1
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Baseball Prospectus Top 10 Twins Prospects

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=18912

    I don't know why it isn't linking above, but here is the link to the Baseball Prospectus Top 10 Twins Prospects. Interesting at the top, and a few players moved around a bit. Feel free to provide your thoughts.

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    Interesting list. Buxton above Sano? Cool. Agree with Hicks at 3 but, generally, our top 6 is pretty set, just flip them around a bit.

    Good to see Polanco getting into the top 10. Three guys (Sano, Kepler and Polanco) were international signees from the same year. Nice class.

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    Polanco is interesting but probably a good call. If there's one thing you can count on, shortstops with even a modest offensive ceiling are about as coveted as anything.

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    Potential wise Buxton should be number one, but i think Sano is number one due to fact he has played and shown he can be a pretty good hitter.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Twins Twerp's Avatar
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    Paid 4.95 just to read this article. Awesome. Though the forecast for next year seems bleak, in the eyes of baseball prospectus. Even more of reason to punt on next season and trade todays stars for tomorrows.

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    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    I've been playing around with preparing my own Top 10 list for the blog and had already decided I was going to push Buxton to the top above Sano primarily because I think he's a better all-around player and defense counts for something with me. Here I thought I was going to be "original" and it turns out I'll just be "following" BP's lead. Dang!
    I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

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    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    As many as five of BP's Top 10 should spend some time in Cedar Rapids with the Kernels in 2013 (Buxton, Kepler, Berrios, Harrison, Polanco). As a Kernels fan, that's kind of exciting and a refreshing change from the talent levels we've been getting from the Angels organization the past couple of seasons.

    On the other hand, as a Twins fan, it demonstrates just how far many of the Twins best prospects are from reaching Target Field, especially considering that two more, Sano and Rosario, are likely to also be starting the season at A+ Ft. Myers.
    I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

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    Senior Member All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Crikket View Post
    As many as five of BP's Top 10 should spend some time in Cedar Rapids with the Kernels in 2013 (Buxton, Kepler, Berrios, Harrison, Polanco). As a Kernels fan, that's kind of exciting and a refreshing change from the talent levels we've been getting from the Angels organization the past couple of seasons.

    On the other hand, as a Twins fan, it demonstrates just how far many of the Twins best prospects are from reaching Target Field, especially considering that two more, Sano and Rosario, are likely to also be starting the season at A+ Ft. Myers.
    Another way to read this, an optimistic way, is that most of the elite prospects should arrive in majors around the same time, giving the Twins a young nucleus to build around.

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    Actually, Mr. Crikket, I believe Cody Christie, our NoDakTwinsFan, beat both you and BPRO to the punch on picking Buxton as the top prospect. So, if you want to be a pioneer, go with someone like Amaurys Minier.

    Although seven of their picks are three years away or so, the overall list is SO much more hopeful than past year's.

    I've been tracking various top whatevers for awhile now. These twenty-two prospects still make someone's top ten:

    Kyle Gibson
    Liam Hendriks
    Chris Parmelee
    Brian Dozier
    Alex Wimmers
    Oswaldo Arcia
    Joe Benson
    Aaron Hicks
    Chris Herrmann
    Adrian Salcedo
    Madison Boer
    Levi Michael
    Angel Morales
    Miguel Sano
    Eddie Rosario
    Kennys Vargas
    J.O. Berrios
    Hudson Boyd
    Byron Buxton
    Travis Harrison
    Max Kepler
    Mason Melotakis

    Not a bad list.

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    And Jorge Polanco.

  11. #11
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    Not sure how I missed Cody's list, though I admit that I not only wasn't writing while I was fighting off a bug, but I wasn't reading much either. I'll stick with Buxton, though, even if I've got good company with the pick.

    And I agree with Pseudo, it does bode well when all of those guys arrive at the same time. Now I just have to live long enough to see it.
    I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

    ~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~

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    I am excited to road trip and go see them play.

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    Buxton as number 1? Based on what? I like tools, but Sano has tools, Hicks has tools, Gibson has tools. Placing Buxton at number 1 is nothing more than drooling over the newest pretty girl that walks into the room for no other reason than because she's new.

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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Buxton as number 1? Based on what? I like tools, but Sano has tools, Hicks has tools, Gibson has tools. Placing Buxton at number 1 is nothing more than drooling over the newest pretty girl that walks into the room for no other reason than because she's new.
    Buxton's all-around tool set is so far above all of the others... I mean, there's a reason he was a #2 overall pick... His upside is incredible... the question will be, how many of those tools will eventually become skills, and how long will it take. It took until this year for Hicks's tools to start becoming skills, 4 years after he was drafted... that's not unusual.

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    Senior Member All-Star JB_Iowa's Avatar
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    It's gratifying to see Hicks move back up to #3 since he now has some maturity as well.

    He is also a reminder that players bounce around in these ratings and are, as they are called, prospects. A lot can happen before they reach the major league level.

    But reading this list still makes me more optimistic today than I was a couple of years ago.

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    I'm happy for all of you fans that are delighted by this list--except that there are only two pitchers (20%) and the active roster comprises nearly 50% pitchers. I haven't examined the composition of previous top ten prospect lists but I suspect that they also underweighted pitchers. It seems to me that the Twins must rectify this disparity between pitching/position top prospects very soon. I too am anxious to see these young men in Twins uniforms soon, likely sooner than most others.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Buxton as number 1? Based on what? I like tools, but Sano has tools, Hicks has tools, Gibson has tools. Placing Buxton at number 1 is nothing more than drooling over the newest pretty girl that walks into the room for no other reason than because she's new.
    Buxton's all-around tool set is so far above all of the others... I mean, there's a reason he was a #2 overall pick... His upside is incredible... the question will be, how many of those tools will eventually become skills, and how long will it take. It took until this year for Hicks's tools to start becoming skills, 4 years after he was drafted... that's not unusual.
    He was number 2 in a weak class. Hicks was in every way a similar prospect to Buxton. The problem is once you've looked at the girl long enough, you tend to pick out little flaws. Buxton is simply the newest girl. I'm all for prospecting, but these lists mean nothing if the only metric is tools and upside. The problem I see with Buxton is that the Twins have 4 guys who are highly thought of that are succeeding at higher levels in the minors (Sano, Arcia, Rosario, and Hicks). Arcia and Hicks have done so quite nicely at AA. While Buxton has tools, to pretend he's even a lock to make it that far is kind of silly.

    I don't have a problem factoring in upside, but it shouldn't be placed above toolsy guys who are actually producing.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    I'm happy for all of you fans that are delighted by this list--except that there are only two pitchers (20%) and the active roster comprises nearly 50% pitchers. I haven't examined the composition of previous top ten prospect lists but I suspect that they also underweighted pitchers. It seems to me that the Twins must rectify this disparity between pitching/position top prospects very soon. I too am anxious to see these young men in Twins uniforms soon, likely sooner than most others.
    One thing about the list being full of position players is that Relievers general do not rank very high. Yes there are 25 men on a roster, but only 5 of those 12-13 pitchers are starters. I feel like some of our power arms in the low minors will be very good relievers. A guy like Chargios doesn't rank as high, even though the chances of him making an impact at the Majors level is higher than a toolsy outfielder who will be ranked high. Melotakis is a guy who also may be a reliever but will not be ranked high for taht fact alone.

    Saying that I do agree we need to add some starting pitching prospects to our farm system. Hopefully Alex Wimmers can come back and give us another arm we can rank in the top 10 next year.

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    I also agree that relivers are not highly rated, though 1 -2 of these could be in New Britian by the end of 2013. I hope the Twins start Rosario in New Britian, but they probably will not. Sano needs to start in FT. Myers.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    I'm happy for all of you fans that are delighted by this list--except that there are only two pitchers (20%) and the active roster comprises nearly 50% pitchers. I haven't examined the composition of previous top ten prospect lists but I suspect that they also underweighted pitchers. It seems to me that the Twins must rectify this disparity between pitching/position top prospects very soon. I too am anxious to see these young men in Twins uniforms soon, likely sooner than most others.
    I think everyone is disappointed by the lack of pitchers but you have the makings of a potentially elite offensive core that is cheap. There's a reason that people are excited and pitching strength can change in a hurry if Span/Willy are traded for a pitching prospect and the Twins pick a starter at #4.

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