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Thread: Strib's JoeC: Brett Myers' Agent says Twins "perhaps very interested"

  1. #21
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Brett Myers is ****ing garbage, if a team as ****ty as the Astros decided he no longer was a fit in the rotation thats all you need to know, he is a lifetime 4.24 ERA starting pitcher in the NL, which means at best he at one point who would been a 4.60 ERA pitcher in the AL, except the problem is he is regressing.

    Would I bring him in on a minimum deal this year? Sure, but I sure as hell wouldn't count on this wife beaters ass to be an even short term solution to the rotation. Myers should be the 4th of 5th pitcher you sign this off-season to be honest.

  2. #22
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by raindog View Post
    Glad this turned into a heated Doumit debate.

    I would be just fine with a Myers signing. The only reason the Astros moved him out of the rotation is to give their younger arms a shot and to increase his value at the trade dead line (not sure if logical).

    Myers started exactly ZERO games last year. They moved him out the rotation because they realized he wasn't a good pitcher.

  3. #23
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=Physics Guy;64474]I'm fine with Myers, maybe at 2 years and no more than 9M. /QUOTE]
    God no.

  4. #24
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    If this is the third best pitcher they get, sure.
    I think peoples' expectations are far too high. The Twins are not going to get two pitchers better than Brett Myers and Brett Myers. They may get two pitchers better than Brett. They may get Brett and a pitcher better than him. But two pitchers better than him while also signing him to a short contract? Nope. That's a tall order when 29 other teams are fighting for those same pitchers in free agency.
    Do you honestly believe Brett Myers commands anything more then close to a minimum one year deal?? I sure as hell hope if they sign Brett Myers they get two pitchers "better" then him.

  5. #25
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    Can we get rid of the **** on this site?

    It is reasonable to project Brett Myers having a useful season in 2012. You can look at the Bill James projection on fangraphs. He is projected as a reliever, but his K/W and ERA are good. The problem is how many seasons of Brett Myers the Twins will buy. Buying beyond his age 32 season would be a mistake.

    Below is data about how pitchers in the 2000s aged from age 31 to age 33.

    http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1968...Old-Set-Up-Man

    The connection to Doumit has to do with signing guys longer term in their 30s.

    I am working with data from baseball reference looking at 31 year old catchers from 2000-2010 corresponding to 33 year old catchers 2002-2012.

    Thus far I have found that there were 86 catchers aged 31 and 61 at age 33. Twenty five did not play their age 33 season in the majors. The data was skewed with several part time catchers that were not good enough to keep playing until age 33 skewing the plate appearance data towards the 31 year olds. I then looked at only at 31 years olds who had significant playing time (>80 games) and matching their age 33 season. Their average plate appearance and OPS are below.

    31 year olds: 422 PA .750 OPS
    33 year olds: 296 PA .721 OPS

    It makes sense for teams a few pieces away from 90 wins to take the risk that solid veterans like Doumit will decline slowly.

    I don't think it makes sense for the Twins to commit to multiyear contracts for any veteran over 30.

  6. #26
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    I don't think it makes sense for the Twins to commit to multiyear contracts for any veteran over 30.
    The Twins need a backup catcher. Doumit's value right now is higher than it was last June (I'd have been surprised if they could get even a C- prospect for him as a rental). He's not blocking anyone because, again, the Twins need a backup catcher and Butera is historically awful. He's not paid enough for it to significantly impact the roster. The Twins aren't prevented from signing any FAs worth mentioning because Ryan Doumit is on the roster.

    I continue to fail to see the problem here.

  7. #27
    Senior Member Triple-A raindog's Avatar
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    Dave, I didn't say he started any games last year. The Astros knew he was going to be traded during the season, and thought he would have more value as a closer.

  8. #28
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
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    Brett Myers
    Age 29 Season: 223 IP, 180 K, 1.24 WHIP, 3.14 ERA
    Age 30 Season: 216 IP, 160 K, 1.31 WHIP, 4.46 ERA

    Going into his Age 32 season next year, I would gladly take what he did two years ago. Only Diamond outperformed that last year for the Twins. He's only three years removed from a season in which he finished 10th in the CYA voting. As for moving to the bullpen, I found this quote from a FanGraphs article:

    "Long term, it will be more important for the Astros to sort out their starting rotation than their bullpen. In a strange twist, that’s why it makes sense to move a present-tense resource in Myers to the bullpen — because doing so will help them figure out what they have among their bevy of mediocre pitching prospects. If one of them steps to the fore and proves he’s a Major League starter this year, the team will have gotten what they wanted from moving Myers to the pen."

  9. #29
    Yes, since there is such a long history of averagish NL pitchers moving to the AL with great success. Especially after their middle-aged seasons....oh wait....

    His babip was 40 points lower then his career average in a small sample in Chicago, which is probably gotten the Twins FO drooling. This is an absolute yawner with no real impact if it happens.

  10. #30
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    Ryan must not be aware of Myers' personal history. We don't take people who aren't model citizens.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by notoriousgod71 View Post
    Ryan must not be aware of Myers' personal history. We don't take people who aren't model citizens.
    But then again I guess his abysmal K rate overrides anything else.

  12. #32
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    We still need to put a team that can win games on the field this year to put fans in the seats(not just the season ticket holders). I cheap 3.5 mil option even for one year will help. Anyone on this post who believes that Twins can catch more than one lightning in a bottle with the return of the minor league FA's starting pitchers is dreaming. Twins still need to sign 2 better FA pitchers or more likely make a couple of trades.

  13. #33
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    Last week's Gleeman and the Geek (EP 68) explains as well as any I've heard about why we as fans gets frustrated by every move the Twins make like this, or don't make that we see other teams. At about the 1 hour mark, they discuss how the Twins not revealing their estimated payroll and saying money isn't important is far more frustrating to fans. It definitely applies to the discussion here and the fact that people are splitting hairs about Doumit's 3.5M/year contract (seriously, a great value).

  14. #34
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    The budget is not the reason I am concerned about the Twins adding players to a bad team that are highly likely to decline.

    They need to build a foundation and then add. Veteran players are an attempt to patch a crumbling foundation. You know the patch won't last long and will weaken over time. The patch does make things look a little better today.

    Adding veterans to a 2010 Twins team makes more sense.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    The budget is not the reason I am concerned about the Twins adding players to a bad team that are highly likely to decline.

    They need to build a foundation and then add. Veteran players are an attempt to patch a crumbling foundation. You know the patch won't last long and will weaken over time. The patch does make things look a little better today.

    Adding veterans to a 2010 Twins team makes more sense.
    Sorry, but it's an incomplete analogy.

    What's the alternative to cheap veterans as stop gaps? AAA lifers in full time roles in the majors? These positions need to be filled. Building a foundation and adding veterans are not mutually exclusive and can be accomplished at the same time.

    When these vets are signed for a couple million dollars, nothing is harmed. Also, Twins at least need to build some semblance of competitiveness unless they want Target Field to be a ghost stadium in year four.
    Last edited by Alex; 11-25-2012 at 12:47 PM.

  16. #36
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    The budget is not the reason I am concerned about the Twins adding players to a bad team that are highly likely to decline.

    They need to build a foundation and then add. Veteran players are an attempt to patch a crumbling foundation. You know the patch won't last long and will weaken over time. The patch does make things look a little better today.

    Adding veterans to a 2010 Twins team makes more sense.
    So what should they do? Not spend the money and give ABs to Drew Butera? What does that accomplish?

  17. #37
    Senior Member All-Star Shane Wahl's Avatar
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    I would much rather give Myers and incentive-laden deal with an option for 2014 than to give 3 years and XX millions to Blanton, et al. I just hope Marcum is the top pitcher signed and Myers is the second pitcher signed. That would actually satisfy me enough for the offseason in terms of starting pitching.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    The budget is not the reason I am concerned about the Twins adding players to a bad team that are highly likely to decline.

    They need to build a foundation and then add. Veteran players are an attempt to patch a crumbling foundation. You know the patch won't last long and will weaken over time. The patch does make things look a little better today.

    Adding veterans to a 2010 Twins team makes more sense.
    So what should they do? Not spend the money and give ABs to Drew Butera? What does that accomplish?
    I believe we are back where we started.

    My comment on Myers was to sign him to a one year deal and flip him at the trade deadline. That is what I would have done with Doumit instead of extending him.

  19. #39
    Senior Member All-Star Bark's Lounge's Avatar
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    If the Twins sign Brett Myers, to me it would be a much better signing than Jason Marquis. If Myers fails as a starter, he has proven he can be an effective reliever, unlike Marquis.

    On the opposite side of the coin he has pitched mostly in the Senior Circuit and he could suck to the utmost degree in the AL (disregarding his okay 2 months with the White Sox this past summer).

    All of what I have just written is probably all for not. If Jeremy Guthrie can get 25M over 3 years, I would guess that some team will pay him 11-14M over 2 years. Will that team be the Twins? Do you want that team to be the Twins?

    My prediction is that he signs elsewhere @ 13M over 2 years.

  20. #40
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    The budget is not the reason I am concerned about the Twins adding players to a bad team that are highly likely to decline.

    They need to build a foundation and then add. Veteran players are an attempt to patch a crumbling foundation. You know the patch won't last long and will weaken over time. The patch does make things look a little better today.

    Adding veterans to a 2010 Twins team makes more sense.
    So what should they do? Not spend the money and give ABs to Drew Butera? What does that accomplish?
    I believe we are back where we started.

    My comment on Myers was to sign him to a one year deal and flip him at the trade deadline. That is what I would have done with Doumit instead of extending him.
    That's fair, but do we know what was offered for Doumit prior to the trade deadline? What do you think he was worth? I personally don't believe the the Twins could have gotten much for him and that his contract is a good one for the Twins and his skillset fits in pretty well with the team.

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