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Thread: Article: Twins trade Denard Span for Nationals' 2011 first round pick

  1. #61
    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post

    In my mind, a 22-year-old college pitcher SHOULD dominate Low A, and probably should dominate High A. He certainly didn't do the latter, with a K rate in the 7s, albeit in 39 innings. Now, maybe he was tired or something, I don't know. I'm not saying he hurt his value. I just don't think he necessarily helped it.
    Ehhh, I dunno. It was 7 games at High-A, is that really enough of a track record? Some pitchers would never post a 10.7 K/9 rate at ANY level, but that's what Meyer did at Low A. No, I don't think the guy is Gerrit Cole, but until he pitches bad at any level, I'm not even sure what the cause for concern is.

    We were not going to get an elite pitching prospect for an oft-injured CF who is only an above-average defender, has no power, and is actually a terrible baserunner for how fast he is. Obviously, the odds are against Meyer being a quality MLB'er, as they are with any prospect, but given that we don't seem to be able to stockpile these guys in any other way, I like it. Also frees up a little more money to stock the rotation for next year.

  2. #62
    Senior Member All-Star Winston Smith's Avatar
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    Remember that Span is no sure thing. There is real health history with him that I'm sure played into how much he was worth.

  3. #63
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer minn55441's Avatar
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    No inside knowledge of how all of this took place, but I would think that during the organizational meetings, they looked at the top 20 minor league pitchers throughout all of baseball and were looking to get one of them in a trade. Hopefully this guy was graded out as being pretty high on their list. I'm sure there were guys with more minor league innings on the list they were working off of, but as in most situations not all of them were available through a trade.

    I wonder how much insight we will get into the scouting and trade negotiations that lead up to this transaction. Knowing the Twins and TR, probably not much.

  4. #64
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Hard to say, but a low A guy not a big name prospect seems like a low return for an everyday starting center fielder. I will have to do some research before forming an opinion. This does lower the payroll...maybe they will spend some money on a pitcher now.....I would like to see Hicks up, and not have to watch Parmalee field.
    "low A guy" isn't an accurate description.
    He was in high A by the end of his first pro year, and was drafted in the first round in the most talent rich draft in the past 20-25 years. This isn't some scrub who was unknown by most. He should crack quite a few top 100 lists heading into next year, I would guess at least 3 or 4 of the MiLB.com, Baseball America, Fangraphs, ESPN, BP etc

  5. #65
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    I don't think anyone is claiming Myers is some sorta of sure deal, but he is certainly the best pitching prospect the Twins have had since Matt Garza. (Gibson could be close if it weren't for the injury)

    When was the last time the Twins had a guy in the system who could throw 98 AND get it over the plate?
    I don't know what he'll be, I like the tone of the move. They aren't going to take a lesser talent just because it is more major league ready - they took a guy that projects to be here in about 2015.

    What I find funny is how far of a cry this is from Span for Shields. We had some rather adamant posters around here about Span's value.

  6. #66
    Owner All-Star John Bonnes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    .

    It almost sounds like you are looking for a reason to not like this trade so people can continue the bashing on Terry Ryan.
    I think it's just the opposite. I'm giving TR the benefit of the doubt. He's certainly earned it on trades like this in that past. Bartlett, Liriano, Casilla, etc.

    I'm just saying that I think anyone who looks at the national ranking of Meyer is going to be disappointed. I don't see him being a top 50 guy. I'm not sure he will be a top 100 guy. I could be wrong. Like I said, this isn't my area of expertise.

    Ultimately, it doesn't matter what he's ranked. It matter what he does, and in that, I trust Ryan and Twins scouting. But I'm a little surprised they couldn't have gotten say an additional player that they also liked. (Of course, maybe they were offered a higher ranked players, but not players that they liked as much.)

  7. #67
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    One other thing to keep in mind was that, after coming back from injury, Span had a .300 OBP to end the year. It was a small sample size but maybe the Twins were concerned with his injuries and just decided to move before rumors started going out.
    Its a good point. Also, not to beat a dead horse, but after posting a .800 + OPS in his first two years, Span didn't reach .680 in his next two, and posted a good but not great 105 OPS+ in 2012. Prior to Revere joining the OF, Span rated as more of an above average CF then a "great"

    As far as speed goes, he has 23 SB the past two years, and probably at least 10 pick offs, at some point he simply isn't an asset on the basepaths when that is the case.

    Is he a damn solid player? Yes
    Are the Twins selling him at what will probably be his high point? Yes
    Is he a great player without question marks? no

    I think a high upside top 100 prospect who is a SP is a fine and fair price. Hell there is about an 80% chance we get more out of Meyer then we did for the whole Santana haul

  8. #68
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    Like I said alot of people over valued Span, and this was probably the best offer the Twins received. So Span didnt have much trade value. The Span for Shields thing was ridiculous. I like this trade though. We obviously are going to be terrible again. People saying we got rid of more salary maybe we can go out and spend some money....newsflash....Twins just might be in salary dump mode right now.

  9. #69
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    I don't think anyone is claiming Myers is some sorta of sure deal, but he is certainly the best pitching prospect the Twins have had since Matt Garza. (Gibson could be close if it weren't for the injury)

    When was the last time the Twins had a guy in the system who could throw 98 AND get it over the plate?
    I don't know what he'll be, I like the tone of the move. They aren't going to take a lesser talent just because it is more major league ready - they took a guy that projects to be here in about 2015.

    What I find funny is how far of a cry this is from Span for Shields. We had some rather adamant posters around here about Span's value.
    I was on the James Shields boat, but even I knew it would take more then Span to land him, I believe I said Span+Rosario?
    At least with a guy like Meyers you potentially get a half dozen or so years of mostly cheap team control. Shields would have been most likely only a two year potential fix (but a very good one at that)

    I disagree on 2015 as well, I don't see any reason why he can't be ready sometime in 2014. From what I read he should be able to move from A+ into AA/AAA pretty quickly.

  10. #70
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    The real question remains to be answered. How will the Twins go about turning this guy into a soft tossing pitch to contact guy?

  11. #71
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    KLAW had him number 3 in Washington going into the year, at work so cannot look more for more recent. Today in his chat he said he thought Span was worth a "mid rotation starter".

  12. #72
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    good move, gives us one one of the better farm systems in the mlb

  13. #73
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    KLAW had him number 3 in Washington going into the year, at work so cannot look more for more recent. Today in his chat he said he thought Span was worth a "mid rotation starter".
    So Klaw was about right in projecting Spans value.

  14. #74
    I like this trade <crosses fingers> Hard-throwing starting pitcher with high K rate. Man, the Nats must really like Span having previously been rumored to be interested in him in 2011 as well. I wonder if this is the first guy in the Nats system the Twins asked for? If not, I'd like to know who it was...
    "Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand."

  15. #75
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    As I said early in the off-season, they should deal Span for a young guy with a high ceiling. I will miss him, as I like to watch him play. Let's hope the scouts are right....and that they use the money saved to sign two legit pitchers.

  16. #76
    This is a good move. As some of you have seen I am one of Span's biggest supporters, as well as one of Revere's biggest detractors. Also, on principle I was opposed to trading Span for the sake of selling high, I believed that unless we were given a fair offer Span is the type of player you hold.

    All that considered I think the Twins got a fair return for Span. Meyer projects as a strikeout pitcher, something the Twins are sorely lacking. The Twins did a classic baseball trade, took an organizational strength (Centerfield) and traded it for an organizational weakness (power pitching).

    Whether Meyer pans out is up in the air, he's a prospect... plenty of guys more highly regarded than Meyer will do worse than he will, plenty of guys ranked below him will perform better.

    I trust the Twins judgement of centerfielders, and I believe that they see something in either Revere (or more likely Hicks) that they can let Span go to strengthen the future of the rotation.

    I will miss Dspan. Will probably pick up a discount T-shirt with his number on it soon.

  17. #77
    Senior Member Double-A MWLFan's Avatar
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    Yeah at this moment 2013 looks just as bad as 2011-2012. But it does give you a chance to dream of a rotation of Meyers, Barrios, Gibson, Diamond and maybe Hendricks or someone else in 2015.

    Having Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Barrios all arrive around the same time should be exciting. With Hicks and Parmalee already in the majors that is youth movement with some depth. Now some will flame out and others will probably rise up and join this group, but this has the opportunity to be a strong core going forward. Some holes out there still that will need to be filled, but it sure looks better then it did last December.

  18. #78
    Senior Member Double-A SirLoin's Avatar
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    Smile I'm stealing this quote from John Kriesel's Facebook page.....

    If the Twins are smart, they'll have Alex Meyer undergo Tommy John surgery tonight...

  19. #79
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    He's a solid B

    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by John Bonnes View Post
    This is the kind of trade with which I trust Terry Ryan. Trading an established guy for a lower level minor league guy with some upside. I don't know if Meyer is more than a "C" prospect at this point, and his real test should come when he gets to AA next year, but that may be why he's available.

    I am disappointed that the Twins didn't get any pitching or middle infielders to help them next year.
    How could you call Meyer a "C" prospect, the guy hits 98 MPH as a starter and looks to have 3 plus pitches (not to mention size, good minor league results etc)? He was widely considered the 2nd best prospect heading into 2013 of the Nats farm class.

    Meyer is clearly the best pitching prospect the Twins have and ranks somewhere between Hicks and Arcia but ahead of Rosario and Gibson, you wouldn't call those guys C prospects right??
    Top 50 prospects are all B's or better.

  20. #80
    Speediest Moderator All-Star snepp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SirLoin View Post
    If the Twins are smart, they'll have Alex Meyer undergo Tommy John surgery tonight...
    Not before they completely breakdown his mechanics in order to "fix" him.
    "Maybe you could go grab a bat and ballÖ and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
    - Strib commenter educating the elitists on the value of RBI's

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