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Thread: Article: In Terry I Trust

  1. #41
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    I trust Terry Ryan, too. I believe he's a savvy baseball mind and a decent negotiator. I trust him to get as much out of his allowed payroll number as almost any GM in baseball.

    I don't trust what he says publicly, however. Like most of us, he's not free to make public statements that put his employer in a bad light... and while I trust Ryan's abilities, I do not trust his employer much at all.

    In their final years at the Metrodome, the Twins had payrolls of about $65 million a year. Had they stayed at the 'dome and continued to be recipients of revenue sharing money rather than contributors, I think we'd be looking at payrolls in the mid $80 millions (assuming the infamous 50% of revenue standard) at this point. So when I read media reports that Ryan may be looking at a Pohlad-imposed limit near the $90 million mark, it disgusts me.

    Failing to add pitching over the past couple of years means Ryan will have to pay a premium for legitimate free agent SPs now to get them to sign with a bad team. In interviews over the past couple months, he's seemed to acknowledge that improving the rotation will cost money and require multiple year contracts. More recently, however, his quotes have returned to the "We're going to make reasonable baseball decisions" standard we've been accustomed to for years. Translated, this has typically meant dumpster diving.

    Based on his comments earlier in the offseason (including those to John Bonnes), I don't think that's what Ryan wanted to do this year. But while other owners are apparently willing to let their GMs spend a little bit of the new National TV money a year before it arrives, I'm guessing Ryan is getting no such latitude from his ownership. The result is that FA price inflation is taking all of the pitching that could truly help the Twins out of Ryan's price range.

    Trusting Terry Ryan is one thing, but what has Jim Pohlad done to make anyone believe we should trust him?
    I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

    ~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Upton is a below average defensive CF who hits some HRs and steals some bases but he strikes out a ton and has trouble getting on base or hitting for average.

    If given a choice between Span and Upton straight up, I'd take Span...when considering what they'll both be paid the next three seasons, it's Span in a freakin landslide.
    Dude, Upton is a significantly better player then Span, just take a look at the upside and his last 3 years of offensive production vs Span. Also, not sure where you are getting this Upton is below average defensively thing. Upton actually rates as above average according to ever defensive metric out there. Also, Upton doesn't have the injury concerns Span has and has shown significant power spikes as he has started to get close to his peak ages.

    Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much.
    Upton rates as above average according to every defensvie metric out there? Like his -3.2 UZR/150 this last season? Or maybe his -4 defensive runs saved this last season? Or maybe him being ranked 19 out of 20 qualifying CFs with plays made outside the zone? Or his negative dWAR? Are those defensive metrics you're referring to?

    He was so bad in fact, that he got not one singular vote for the fielding bible award for CFs, when 24 other CFs did. And you say he's 'above average'

    Then there was the -7 defensive runs saved in CF last year and -19 defensive runs saved in CF the year before.

    He also had a BA in the .240s last year, an OBP below .300 and his 169Ks. GREAT offensive numbers. Did you miss all that when drooling over the HR and SBs (which I mentioned, BTW)

    Don't talk to me about not following baseball too much, you look silly...especially when you ay Upton was an above average defensive CF
    Last edited by ThePuck; 12-03-2012 at 01:11 PM.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim H View Post
    Lots of interesting speculation on this. I doubt if we ever know if one side "caved" on this trade or not. It is hardly in anyone's interest to reveal that. What is true, is that it will be years before this trade can be fairly evalulated. There is a pretty chance Span will continue to be largely what he has been. Meyer could turn into an ace, a good starting pitcher, a closer, a decent reliever or never reach the majors at all.
    110 million dollar payroll, With 2 prospects with no place to play why not trade justin and a prospect for either torontos Dárnaud or texas 3b olt? We would be adding quality to the infield and saving 15 million . That would give us about 55 million to spend and enough to sign Anibal Sanchez to a 4 year contract at 15 million per with a 5 th year option at 20 million,along with either Jackson or Dempster at 12-14 million per year. That would give us enough money to sign Hamilton to replace Justins left handed power and allow Revere to play left field and ham moving to dh ,improving our defense in the outfield and giving us an exciting rotation and a killer batting order. ok now that your maybe done laughing remember inflation and we are still 1-3 years from seeing our top prospect from arriving, and when they do we will have trade chips in the players we signed this year to reload the minors ,or to add a player or 2 to make a run at a title..

  4. #44
    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Crikket View Post
    So when I read media reports that Ryan may be looking at a Pohlad-imposed limit near the $90 million mark, it disgusts me.
    Why don't we wait and see how much he actually spends before getting disgusted? I agree with your overall viewpoints about payroll but this seems like needless hand-wringing to me.

  5. #45
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Upton is a below average defensive CF who hits some HRs and steals some bases but he strikes out a ton and has trouble getting on base or hitting for average.

    If given a choice between Span and Upton straight up, I'd take Span...when considering what they'll both be paid the next three seasons, it's Span in a freakin landslide.
    Dude, Upton is a significantly better player then Span, just take a look at the upside and his last 3 years of offensive production vs Span. Also, not sure where you are getting this Upton is below average defensively thing. Upton actually rates as above average according to ever defensive metric out there. Also, Upton doesn't have the injury concerns Span has and has shown significant power spikes as he has started to get close to his peak ages.

    Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much.
    Upton rates as above average according to every defensvie metric out there? Like his -3.2 UZR/150 this last season? Or maybe his -4 defensive runs saved this last season? Or maybe him being ranked 19 out of 20 qualifying CFs with plays made outside the zone? He was so bad in fact, that he got not one singular vote for the fielding bible award for CFs, when 24 other CFs did?

    Then there was the -7 defensive runs saved in CF last year and -19 defensive runs saved in CF the year before.

    Are those defensive metrics you're referring to??

    He also had a BA in the .240s last year, an OBP below .300 and his 169Ks. GREAT offensive numbers. Did you miss all that when drooling over the HR and SBs (which I mentioned, BTW)

    Don't talk to me about not following baseball too much, you look silly...especially when you ay Upton was an above average defensive CF
    Well you are the one who is using one year's worth of defensive stats. Anyone that understands how defensive advanced metrics works knows that it is better to take a longer look type approach to it rather then just one year at a time. In 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 Upton rated as above average in total fielding and UZR. So basically we have 5 years that say above average and 1 year below average....hmm....I wonder what conclusions we can draw from that.

    Keep sticking to the smaller picture though!

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Upton is a below average defensive CF who hits some HRs and steals some bases but he strikes out a ton and has trouble getting on base or hitting for average.

    If given a choice between Span and Upton straight up, I'd take Span...when considering what they'll both be paid the next three seasons, it's Span in a freakin landslide.
    Dude, Upton is a significantly better player then Span, just take a look at the upside and his last 3 years of offensive production vs Span. Also, not sure where you are getting this Upton is below average defensively thing. Upton actually rates as above average according to ever defensive metric out there. Also, Upton doesn't have the injury concerns Span has and has shown significant power spikes as he has started to get close to his peak ages.

    Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much.
    Both brWAR and fangraphs UZR have Upton listed as a negative defender now. Last year, both rWAR and fWAR would have Span as the slightly better player (although that comes with all the WAR is really not that accurate admonitions). I'd prefer Upton for his durability but it's close.

  7. #47
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Also: Career UZR/150:

    Span: 4.5
    Upton: 3.9

    Like I said before, very similar with maybe a slight advantage to Span. Upton however has the significant advantage in offense and base running.

  8. #48
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much.
    Minus the injuries, I'd rather have Span, honestly. They both OPS around the same but Span gets more of that OPS from OBP.

    Of course, injury concerns slant that back into Upton's favor quite a bit.
    First off, that's not really accurate:

    Spans last three years: .679 .678 .738 OBP= .331 .328 .342
    Uptons last three years: .745 .759 .752 BP=.322 .331 .298

    Keep in mind that also Upton was playing in Tampa Bay which was quite a large pitchers park in 2012 as well as the rest of its history vs Target field that was neutral in 2012 and close to neutral overall.

    Upton also will give you 30-40 SB a year vs Span who will give you 20-25 at most along with a ton of pick offs. Lastly, give me the guy that has 25+ HR power (will hit for 30+ next year if healthy) over the guy who has 5 HR power.

    Defensively all things considered (Park, other guys sharing the OF) they are basically a wash, maybe a slight advantage to Span.

    IMO its not really close if you take money out of the equation, with or without injuries.
    Except that Span's line was crushed in 2011 by injuries and his 2010 was just pretty miserable overall. 2012 is the first season since the Metrodome where he looked like the Span of old. It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case.

  9. #49
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Upton is a below average defensive CF who hits some HRs and steals some bases but he strikes out a ton and has trouble getting on base or hitting for average.

    If given a choice between Span and Upton straight up, I'd take Span...when considering what they'll both be paid the next three seasons, it's Span in a freakin landslide.
    Dude, Upton is a significantly better player then Span, just take a look at the upside and his last 3 years of offensive production vs Span. Also, not sure where you are getting this Upton is below average defensively thing. Upton actually rates as above average according to ever defensive metric out there. Also, Upton doesn't have the injury concerns Span has and has shown significant power spikes as he has started to get close to his peak ages.

    Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much.
    Both brWAR and fangraphs UZR have Upton listed as a negative defender now. Last year, both rWAR and fWAR would have Span as the slightly better player (although that comes with all the WAR is really not that accurate admonitions). I'd prefer Upton for his durability but it's close.
    See my comment before your post. In the 5 years prior to 2012 Upton was listed as a positive defender in CF. Moving forward I will take the 5 plus years over the 1 negative year as a sign of things to come, especially from a 28 year old.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Upton is a below average defensive CF who hits some HRs and steals some bases but he strikes out a ton and has trouble getting on base or hitting for average.

    If given a choice between Span and Upton straight up, I'd take Span...when considering what they'll both be paid the next three seasons, it's Span in a freakin landslide.
    Dude, Upton is a significantly better player then Span, just take a look at the upside and his last 3 years of offensive production vs Span. Also, not sure where you are getting this Upton is below average defensively thing. Upton actually rates as above average according to ever defensive metric out there. Also, Upton doesn't have the injury concerns Span has and has shown significant power spikes as he has started to get close to his peak ages.

    Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much.
    Upton rates as above average according to every defensvie metric out there? Like his -3.2 UZR/150 this last season? Or maybe his -4 defensive runs saved this last season? Or maybe him being ranked 19 out of 20 qualifying CFs with plays made outside the zone? He was so bad in fact, that he got not one singular vote for the fielding bible award for CFs, when 24 other CFs did?

    Then there was the -7 defensive runs saved in CF last year and -19 defensive runs saved in CF the year before.

    Are those defensive metrics you're referring to??

    He also had a BA in the .240s last year, an OBP below .300 and his 169Ks. GREAT offensive numbers. Did you miss all that when drooling over the HR and SBs (which I mentioned, BTW)

    Don't talk to me about not following baseball too much, you look silly...especially when you ay Upton was an above average defensive CF
    Well you are the one who is using one year's worth of defensive stats. Anyone that understands how defensive advanced metrics works knows that it is better to take a longer look type approach to it rather then just one year at a time. In 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 Upton rated as above average in total fielding and UZR. So basically we have 5 years that say above average and 1 year below average....hmm....I wonder what conclusions we can draw from that.

    Keep sticking to the smaller picture though!
    Yeah, they say look at the last three years...did you see the negative defensive runs saved for 2010 and 2011?

  11. #51
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Excuses
    The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.

  12. #52
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boom Boom View Post
    OK, we'll put the shoe on the other foot then.

    Great move by Rizzo. The Nationals probably never wanted Upton anyway, and were just waiting for him to sign so that the Twins' options for trading Span were more limited and the Nats didn't have to give up anything more than one A-ball prospect. The Twins were probably asking for more than Meyers for Span, but when interest from the Braves dried up they were left holding the bag. It's obvious that the Nationals had their eyes on Span all along and were never all that interested in Upton.
    That doesn't make any sense, really.

    1. The Braves and Nationals were not the only potential trade partners for Span while Denard was the best centerfielder still on the market.

    2. Ryan didn't have to trade Span. He also has Revere and Willingham on the roster, who could easily be dished to several other teams if the market for Span was shallow.

    3. The Twins are not under pressure to win while the Nationals just saw their biggest rival pick up the best outfielder on the market. With Denard under contract for three more years, who do you think was pressured into making a move? It wasn't Ryan.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Is Span a better bargain at his deal? Yeah, and I would take Span at his contract over Upton. But to say straight up (money not an issue) that you would take Span over Upton is disingenuous, or else you don't follow baseball much.
    Minus the injuries, I'd rather have Span, honestly. They both OPS around the same but Span gets more of that OPS from OBP.

    Of course, injury concerns slant that back into Upton's favor quite a bit.
    First off, that's not really accurate:

    Spans last three years: .679 .678 .738 OBP= .331 .328 .342
    Uptons last three years: .745 .759 .752 BP=.322 .331 .298

    Keep in mind that also Upton was playing in Tampa Bay which was quite a large pitchers park in 2012 as well as the rest of its history vs Target field that was neutral in 2012 and close to neutral overall.

    Upton also will give you 30-40 SB a year vs Span who will give you 20-25 at most along with a ton of pick offs. Lastly, give me the guy that has 25+ HR power (will hit for 30+ next year if healthy) over the guy who has 5 HR power.

    Defensively all things considered (Park, other guys sharing the OF) they are basically a wash, maybe a slight advantage to Span.

    IMO its not really close if you take money out of the equation, with or without injuries.
    Except that Span's line was crushed in 2011 by injuries and his 2010 was just pretty miserable overall. 2012 is the first season since the Metrodome where he looked like the Span of old. It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case.
    Exactly. Span was ranked as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball this year and Upton was right near the bottom...

  14. #54
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Excuses
    The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.
    Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read " It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value.

    *headdesk*

  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Excuses
    The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.
    Something to do with Span's concussion, I imagine...Upton is a below average defensive CF, he strikes out a ton and he hasn't hit over .245 in the last 4 seasons. But chicks dig the long ball...

  16. #56
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Yeah, they say look at the last three years...did you see the negative defensive runs saved for 2010 and 2011?
    I see his positive UZR, which is what I use along with the "eye test". I'm not a huge fan of DRS, but since we are on that subject game keep in mind that prior to Revere hoping in the OF along with Span, Span was posting negative defensive runs saved as well (2010 season and before) and actually was posting less OOZ then Upton as well.

    What does this all tell us? Upton and Span are very similar, so you can't call one "above average" while dismissing the other as "below average"

  17. #57
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    either you are not reading what I am saying, I said it badly, or something else is going on. Because I never once said what you are saying I said. Sometimes I wonder if people are willing to listen to people they do not agree with at all. Because it sure does not feel that way a lot on this site.

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    See my comment before your post. In the 5 years prior to 2012 Upton was listed as a positive defender in CF. Moving forward I will take the 5 plus years over the 1 negative year as a sign of things to come, especially from a 28 year old.
    Maybe, maybe not. But that's getting away from the first point when you said Upton rates as above average in every single defensive statistic out there. That is clearly not the case.

    His UZR has fallen considerably over the last five years. Over the last 3 years, it has been pretty bland. Additionally, bWAR's defensive metric has never liked Upton, making him negative for his career.

    You might be right. He might still be an above average defender at the age of 28. But others might well suggest that, after nearly 1000 games, many on artificial turf, Upton is starting to show decline in his defensive game. Or defensive stats may be seriously skewered. Look at Carl Crawford. From a great defender to a negative one in one season - that was clearly marred by injury and moving to different positions as well as playing at Fenway where the Monster affects defensive stats (Hardball times had an article pointing to two parks that affected defensive adjustments, Fenway's Monster and the Dome's baggy, so I suppose Span's stats over that five year period could also all be in question).

  19. #59
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Excuses
    The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around.
    Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read " It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value.

    *headdesk*
    He was healthy in 2010 yet posted an OPS about a 100 points less, you write it off as pretty miserable overall, yet still say that taking injuries out of it you'd prefer Span. I was showing you that even when healthy Upton is outperforming him.

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Yeah, they say look at the last three years...did you see the negative defensive runs saved for 2010 and 2011?
    I see his positive UZR, which is what I use along with the "eye test". I'm not a huge fan of DRS, but since we are on that subject game keep in mind that prior to Revere hoping in the OF along with Span, Span was posting negative defensive runs saved as well (2010 season and before) and actually was posting less OOZ then Upton as well.

    What does this all tell us? Upton and Span are very similar, so you can't call one "above average" while dismissing the other as "below average"
    His positive UZR over the last three years? barely...ever so slightly...what .8? Awesome...truly well above average

    Nice to see you dismiss the defensive runs saved stat...since it doesn't follow your opinion.

    In any event, overall player ability, I take Span...especially when considering contract. Keep thinking I don't know baseball cause of that opinion though....

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