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Thread: Article: In Terry I Trust

  1. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post

    I can't help but notice you didn't answer the question:

    If Span were a free agent this year, would he get a 5/75 contract?

    If you think he would, then I guess he has at least the same value as Upton, if you think he wouldn't, then I guess he wouldn't have as much value. Yes or no?
    Just like I can't help but noticed you avoided this whole post completely :

    'Oh, you prefer to use UZR...so you prefer to use stats that help your debate and discard those that don't. Even though Fangraph does both stats, only one has merit? UZR doesn't really help you though. Not for the last three years. And Span DOES NOT have a negative DRS over the last three years in CF. He had 20 this year, 9 in 2011 (while only playing half a season, BTW) and a -5 in 2010. That's not a negative, that's a big positive.

    And don't talk to me about snarky comments...you began our debate saying I didn't know baseball cause you didn't agree with my opinion. Doesn't get much snarkier than that. Or is it only okay when you do it? '

    Why did you avoid that post, exactly?

    I also noticed you said you were done with it as well since my mind wasn't gonna be changed...

    To answer yours, I don't believe Upton deserved anywhere near that contract...and no I don't think Span would get it. But I do believe HRs are overvalued in ALMOST all contracts and defense basically ignored in today's game when contracts are given out. In other words, because a team decided to seriously overpay a guy who doesn't deserve it, doesn't mean that it's a true measure of his value.
    Last edited by ThePuck; 12-03-2012 at 02:53 PM.

  2. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by kirbyelway View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by h2oface View Post
    i don't trust in terry at all. why should anyone? ryan stated in september to the season ticket holders one thing, and then did another. trustworthy? span has first round pedigree, too, and hey, so does levi machael. i'll be holding my breath on that one. on top of it all...... it was rizzo that had coveted span for a long time. terry ryan folded and got taken, and left cards on the table. it turns out that regardless of the contract, as reported today at mlb trade rumors, that rizzo and the nats wanted span more than any of the centerfielders available. ryan made the weak play. there was a takeaway not played, and an additional player to be had that ryan was not player enough to get. washington DID get a proven player ready to help immediately and for several years, and the twins got a hope.
    Obviously you think he should be able to work miracles. Give TR some time and you will see once again why he is a winner and he has this organization on the right path.

    I would say exactly the opposite!

  3. #103
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    and no I don't think Span would get it.
    ok thanks!

  4. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    and no I don't think Span would get it.
    ok thanks!
    That's it huh? Yeah, that's what I figured.

  5. #105
    Twins Moderator All-Star twinsnorth49's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    and no I don't think Span would get it.
    ok thanks!
    That's it huh? Yeah, that's what I figured.


    You guys had enough yet?

  6. #106
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    and no I don't think Span would get it.
    ok thanks!
    That's it huh? Yeah, that's what I figured.
    I already responded to the rest of your questions you asked for the most part, I don't feel like dancing in circles any more with you. You said Span is more valuable (taking money off the table) then Upton, myself and every GM in the league disagree with you.

    Also, I didn't say you knew nothing about baseball, I said that if you only use one years worth of defensive metric data you were either:
    A. Being Disingenuous
    B. Knew nothing about baseball.

    It was an either/or scenario.

  7. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    and no I don't think Span would get it.
    ok thanks!
    That's it huh? Yeah, that's what I figured.
    I already responded to the rest of your questions you asked for the most part, I don't feel like dancing in circles any more with you. You said Span is more valuable (taking money off the table) then Upton, myself and every GM in the league disagree with you.

    Also, I didn't say you knew nothing about baseball, I said that if you only use one years worth of defensive metric data you were either:
    A. Being Disingenuous
    B. Knew nothing about baseball.

    It was an either/or scenario.
    You responded to:

    'Oh, you prefer to use UZR...so you prefer to use stats that help your debate and discard those that don't. Even though Fangraph does both stats, only one has merit? UZR doesn't really help you though. Not for the last three years. And Span DOES NOT have a negative DRS over the last three years in CF. He had 20 this year, 9 in 2011 (while only playing half a season, BTW) and a -5 in 2010. That's not a negative, that's a big positive.

    And don't talk to me about snarky comments...you began our debate saying I didn't know baseball cause you didn't agree with my opinion. Doesn't get much snarkier than that. Or is it only okay when you do it? '

    Really? You responded to me correcting your false statement about Span having a negative DRS over the last three years and me showing your UZR stats for the last three years didn't help your cause for Upton?

    And since I've cleared showed I'm not being disingenuous, that only leaves you to believe I don't know baseball. Basically it comes down to you saying if I don't have your opinion, I don't know baseball.

    But okay, if you say so
    Last edited by ThePuck; 12-03-2012 at 03:13 PM.

  8. #108
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    I'm done with this...unless you wanna keep going round and round Dave...

  9. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsnorth49 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    and no I don't think Span would get it.
    ok thanks!
    That's it huh? Yeah, that's what I figured.


    You guys had enough yet?
    That image is accurate, as I am certainly right handed.

  10. #110
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Twins Twerp's Avatar
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    At! least you guys aren't catty

  11. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by twinsnorth49 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    and no I don't think Span would get it.
    ok thanks!
    That's it huh? Yeah, that's what I figured.


    You guys had enough yet?
    That image is accurate, as I am certainly right handed.
    Ah, you're cute...delusional, but cute

  12. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    I'm done with this debate. It's been, well, interesting
    I can't help but notice you didn't answer the question:

    If Span were a free agent this year, would he get a 5/75 contract?

    If you think he would, then I guess he has at least the same value as Upton, if you think he wouldn't, then I guess he wouldn't have as much value. Yes or no?
    Not to get into the middle of this mess, but the Span value discussion intrigues me. Lets look at a comparison:
    G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
    Player A 136 488 69 120 26 0 29 98 4 1 56 150 .246 .332 .477 .810 121
    Player B 146 573 79 141 29 3 28 78 31 6 45 169 .246 .298 .454 .752 109

    Offensively they are not tremendously different. Player B steals more bases. Player A provides more power. Both are FA, Player A is 32 and a corner OF, Player B is 27 and a CF.

    Player A is Josh Willingham - 2011
    Player B is BJ Upton - 2012

    While there will be some value difference based on age and position, is there really a 3/$21 vs 5/$75 difference? I don't think so.

    Name recognition can be a huge factor. Nobody comes to see unassuming Denard Span, everybody wants to see BJ Upton, who has been hyped and effectively overrated from the moment he was brought up.

    I don't think Denard Span would get a 5/$75 deal as a FA, but I also don't think Upton's value is that much higher than Span's either. Just my 2 cents.

  13. #113
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden View Post

    Not to get into the middle of this mess, but the Span value discussion intrigues me. Lets look at a comparison:
    G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
    Player A 136 488 69 120 26 0 29 98 4 1 56 150 .246 .332 .477 .810 121
    Player B 146 573 79 141 29 3 28 78 31 6 45 169 .246 .298 .454 .752 109

    Offensively they are not tremendously different. Player B steals more bases. Player A provides more power. Both are FA, Player A is 32 and a corner OF, Player B is 27 and a CF.

    Player A is Josh Willingham - 2011
    Player B is BJ Upton - 2012

    While there will be some value difference based on age and position, is there really a 3/$21 vs 5/$75 difference? I don't think so.

    Name recognition can be a huge factor. Nobody comes to see unassuming Denard Span, everybody wants to see BJ Upton, who has been hyped and effectively overrated from the moment he was brought up.

    I don't think Denard Span would get a 5/$75 deal as a FA, but I also don't think Upton's value is that much higher than Span's either. Just my 2 cents.
    Great comparison. Smart people go after the Denard Spans and Josh Willinghams of the world. They're going to bring a lot of value to the team for not a lot of cash. Not-as-smart people do things like give BJ Upton $75m. Not that I think the Braves are dumb; they're one of the smarter organizations in baseball... but that doesn't mean they can't do dumb things.

  14. #114
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    Well, I think this thread helped us learn a lot about certain posters, if nothing else. I am stunned that someone on the internet failed to apologize for his comments and, in spite of evidence to the contrary, dug in and purposefully ignored/misunderstood other posters to do so. Absolutely stunned.

  15. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Well, I think this thread helped us learn a lot about certain posters, if nothing else. I am stunned that someone on the internet failed to apologize for his comments and, in spite of evidence to the contrary, dug in and purposefully ignored/misunderstood other posters to do so. Absolutely stunned.
    I am shocked, shocked! to find that gambling is going on in here.

    Your winnings, sir.

  16. #116
    Twins Moderator All-Star twinsnorth49's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Well, I think this thread helped us learn a lot about certain posters, if nothing else. I am stunned that someone on the internet failed to apologize for his comments and, in spite of evidence to the contrary, dug in and purposefully ignored/misunderstood other posters to do so. Absolutely stunned.
    Agreed, I'm completely disillusioned, usually things are much more impartial around here.

  17. #117
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden View Post

    Not to get into the middle of this mess, but the Span value discussion intrigues me. Lets look at a comparison:
    G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
    Player A 136 488 69 120 26 0 29 98 4 1 56 150 .246 .332 .477 .810 121
    Player B 146 573 79 141 29 3 28 78 31 6 45 169 .246 .298 .454 .752 109

    Offensively they are not tremendously different. Player B steals more bases. Player A provides more power. Both are FA, Player A is 32 and a corner OF, Player B is 27 and a CF.

    Player A is Josh Willingham - 2011
    Player B is BJ Upton - 2012

    While there will be some value difference based on age and position, is there really a 3/$21 vs 5/$75 difference? I don't think so.

    Name recognition can be a huge factor. Nobody comes to see unassuming Denard Span, everybody wants to see BJ Upton, who has been hyped and effectively overrated from the moment he was brought up.

    I don't think Denard Span would get a 5/$75 deal as a FA, but I also don't think Upton's value is that much higher than Span's either. Just my 2 cents.
    Great comparison. Smart people go after the Denard Spans and Josh Willinghams of the world. They're going to bring a lot of value to the team for not a lot of cash. Not-as-smart people do things like give BJ Upton $75m. Not that I think the Braves are dumb; they're one of the smarter organizations in baseball... but that doesn't mean they can't do dumb things.
    I agree with everything you said, as I mentioned, for the money Span is the man to go with on this.

  18. #118
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Well, I think this thread helped us learn a lot about certain posters, if nothing else. I am stunned that someone on the internet failed to apologize for his comments and, in spite of evidence to the contrary, dug in and purposefully ignored/misunderstood other posters to do so. Absolutely stunned.
    I'd still like to hear how BJ Upton is a better player then Denard Span, especially moving forward. Not a better value, not a better person, a better player. Show me evidence to the contrary and I will tend to agree, I have been posting with a number of these guys for 5+ years, they know I will change my opinion on a player all the time when presented with new evidence/ideas.

  19. #119
    Comparing Josh Willingham's and B.J. Upton's offensive statistics is fine. What about their defensive stats? What else do they bring to the table (experience, knowledge of certain division's pitchers, etc.)

    I contend that Josh Willingham is more valuable to the Twins than he would be to nearly any other team. He hits his homers along the left field line: Willingham is made for Target Field.

    Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are also great hitters – but they are lefties. But their production dropped when they began playing at Target Field – in part because of injuries, but in part because of the field itself. Every field has its quirks, I think the M&M boys are coming back with a huge season in 2013, because their injuries are hopefully behind them, and they're going to take even more advantage of Target Field – not in the same way Willingham does, but they will tweak their game some more yet to take advantage of TF.

    I know, I know, I'm dreaming. But I see TF becoming less and less a pitcher's field and more of a balanced field between pitchers and hitters.

    I hope Willingham, Morneau and Mauer will all be around to help the Twins in 2013.
    Last edited by lee_the_twins_fan; 12-03-2012 at 04:04 PM.

  20. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by lee_the_twins_fan View Post
    Comparing Josh Willingham's and B.J. Upton's offensive statistics is fine. What about their defensive stats? What else do they bring to the table (experience, knowledge of certain division's pitchers, etc.)

    I contend that Josh Willingham is more valuable to the Twins than he would be to nearly any other team. He hits his homers along the left field line: Willingham is made for target Field.

    Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are also great hitters – and they are lefties. But their production dropped when they began playing at Target Field – in part because of injuries, but in part because of the field itself. Every field has its quirks, I think the M&M boys are coming back with a huge season in 2013, because their injuries are hopefully behind them, and they're going to take even more advantage of Target Field – not in the same way Willingham does, but they will tweak their game some more yet to take advantage of TF.

    I know, I know, I'm dreaming. But I see TF becoming less and less a pitcher's field and more of a balanced field between pitchers and hitters.

    I hope Willingham, Moorneau and Mauer will all be around to help the Twins in 2013.
    I agree...but I'd like to point out that according to ESPN park factor information, TF was a hitter's park last year. Ranked 10th. I'd also like to point out that in 2010, Morneau was having an MVP type season before the concussion and had an OPS over .900 at TF.
    Last edited by ThePuck; 12-03-2012 at 04:15 PM.

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