Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum
Page 10 of 10 FirstFirst ... 8910
Results 181 to 190 of 190

Thread: Mackey: Low Risk or Not, Twins are Taking a Philosophical Gamble

  1. #181
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    3,232
    Like
    0
    Liked 1 Time in 1 Post
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    That argument was used lst year and the year before. Your statement does explain a lot
    And this year, very often. I'm not sure I follow what you're getting at?
    Last edited by ThePuck; 01-24-2013 at 07:38 AM.

  2. #182
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    1,654
    Like
    9
    Liked 54 Times in 35 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    And this year, very often. I'm not sure I follow what you're getting at?
    you can argue one way or the other that the total player payroll limited the Twins in 2012 and before. That debate still goes on. I have not seen a payroll is near the limit in any post for 2013 or beyond.

  3. #183
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    3,232
    Like
    0
    Liked 1 Time in 1 Post
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    you can argue one way or the other that the total player payroll limited the Twins in 2012 and before. That debate still goes on. I have not seen a payroll is near the limit in any post for 2013 or beyond.
    I've seen quite a few argue about how signing 3 year contracts will cripple our ability to sign others in the next couple years when we'll supposedly be competing. Not on this thread necessarily, but a few others. The last three years payroll has been fine...in the next quite a few it should be real low.

    And just for giggles, I liked how people keep talking about how Mauer's payroll is gonna cripple us because of the percentage of payroll his salary takes up and I'm like, well, if payroll keeps dropping, that percentage will keep going up :-)
    Last edited by ThePuck; 01-24-2013 at 09:18 AM.

  4. #184
    Senior Member Triple-A
    Posts
    497
    Like
    2
    Liked 80 Times in 50 Posts
    It's a scary read. Maybe the worst part is when he talks about ancient scouting reports from Correia's time in SF and SD (when he still mostly sucked, though in a somewhat different way).

    I just hope TR stops with the excuses when his Correia experiment fails gruesomely.

  5. #185
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
    Posts
    8,093
    Twitter
    @rocketpig76
    Like
    48
    Liked 1,581 Times in 822 Posts
    Blog Entries
    6
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    An aggressive attempt to get Shields in trade w/ an extension, plus a 2nd tier signee like Marcum should have been doable and would have produced an-above average rotation and still left room to get some MI help with a $100M payroll. This would have meant no Meyer, but still would have left the door open for acquiring Worley and May. This would have been more than enough elixir to provide the true "hope" and "positivity" that the homers are falsely claiming has been achieved this offseason
    Look at what KC gave up for Shields. The absolute dumbest thing the Twins could be doing right now is playing that game. Trading away top-shelf prospects for a starter when you're coming off back-to-back 90+ loss seasons is not a winning formula. I was all for trying to pry Shields away from Tampa but after seeing what KC gave up for the guy, there is no way the Twins should have been in the mix... It would have required Span and Sano to get him at that point. Not smart.

  6. #186
    Senior Member Triple-A whydidnt's Avatar
    Posts
    346
    Like
    17
    Liked 9 Times in 6 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by josecordoba View Post
    Pitchers can do improve and supplement their skill-set all the time. Pitchers lose velocity then remake themselves. Pitchers get better with certain pitches. The Twins must feel their is something here that hasn't reflected itself yet in the numbers. The main point is the Twins reached their conclusion based on information not available to Phil Mackey or Ourselves.
    And where is the Twins track record of being able to identify these previously unseen skills in pitchers, was it Marquis? Ponson? R.Martinez, Hernandez, etc. The Twins don't have a track record of "fixing" pitchers with poor skill set, if anything, many of them get worse when the arrive here and then rebound slightly when moving on somewhere else.

  7. #187
    Twins News Team MVP
    Posts
    6,706
    Like
    862
    Liked 843 Times in 539 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Look at what KC gave up for Shields. The absolute dumbest thing the Twins could be doing right now is playing that game. Trading away top-shelf prospects for a starter when you're coming off back-to-back 90+ loss seasons is not a winning formula. I was all for trying to pry Shields away from Tampa but after seeing what KC gave up for the guy, there is no way the Twins should have been in the mix... It would have required Span and Sano to get him at that point. Not smart.
    I dunno. Your statement implies that Meyer is a sure thing. Sano definitely isn't even a sure thing at this point. Both have question marks left to erase from their resumes. Wil Myers was far closer to a sure thing and the trade would have looked even better if Twins could have found a way to get Wade Davis in the deal- he has turned out to be a top-notch set-up man.

    I would say getting Shields locked up to the end of his effective career would have been the bridge to the next wave of talent, improved the immediate outlook, affordably, over 2013 and 14- and encouraged the rest of the players in the league to sit up and take notice that the Twins are serious about becoming relevant again.

    By direct contrast to the basket of question marks in paragraph one, Shields is pretty much a sure thing. He's averaged nearly 4.0 WAR over the last 6 seasons, giving you 200+ quality innings and 33 starts (5 years in a row) standing on his head. Only 4 guys have pitched more innings during that time. Shields is very cheap for '13 and '14. He just turned 31 in December, which means a 4-year extension out to 2018 would have Shields at the top of the rotation through his age 36 year, fit within the very low projected payroll after 2014, coincide when the impact prospects are becoming key (and very cheap!) key cogs in 2015, AND close his contract out the same year as Mauer.

    Did I mention that it now will be much easier to match or exceed his numbers pitching in the AL Central vs. the meat-grinding AL East, plus the addition of at least a couple starts vs. the Astros?
    Last edited by jokin; 01-24-2013 at 03:48 PM.

  8. #188
    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
    Posts
    8,668
    Like
    2,650
    Liked 3,281 Times in 1,747 Posts
    Blog Entries
    28
    Quote Originally Posted by ThePuck View Post
    I've seen quite a few argue about how signing 3 year contracts will cripple our ability to sign others in the next couple years when we'll supposedly be competing. Not on this thread necessarily, but a few others. The last three years payroll has been fine...in the next quite a few it should be real low.
    Maybe some argue that, but I don't think that's how Ryan is approaching it. I'm more or less repeating myself from past posts. Say the window for contending opens in 2015, with 2014 as a "transition year", and in 2015 the current salary commitments are essentially Mauer plus rookies and a few contracts like Perkins. I'll concentrate on starting pitching. So you have a lot of flexibility for 2015 and forward, until some of the youngsters start to earn the arbitration dough. Do you commit some of that flexibility now, because some free agent is so desirable that only a 3-year or higher commitment will land him (and you want him for that long or longer because he's so good)? Doing that, you accept the risk that he blows out his arm in 2013 or 2014. If instead you wait until the next off-season, other valuable free agents will come along, and then you are only risking 2014 in the hope of getting a good pitcher for 2015 and onward. And, if you wait another offseason, now you can sign someone good, to a 3-year contract that covers years of actual contention, and without assuming any degree of risk for the dead years of 2013-14. Of course, the risk is always there for as long as a pitcher is under contract, but it's the question of potential reward in exchange for that risk: making 2013 marginally better toward a .500 club, or pushing the 2015-16 team over the top. So, the way I was hoping Ryan would do it is try to make 2013 marginally better through 1- and 2-year signings. Correia is the right length of contract in this view, I just don't think he was the right guy.

    It's not like a signing now might downright cripple the 2015 team. But a signing later on may prove to be more able to address the needs at that time.

  9. #189
    Senior Member All-Star
    Posts
    3,232
    Like
    0
    Liked 1 Time in 1 Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    Maybe some argue that, but I don't think that's how Ryan is approaching it. I'm more or less repeating myself from past posts. Say the window for contending opens in 2015, with 2014 as a "transition year", and in 2015 the current salary commitments are essentially Mauer plus rookies and a few contracts like Perkins. I'll concentrate on starting pitching. So you have a lot of flexibility for 2015 and forward, until some of the youngsters start to earn the arbitration dough. Do you commit some of that flexibility now, because some free agent is so desirable that only a 3-year or higher commitment will land him (and you want him for that long or longer because he's so good)? Doing that, you accept the risk that he blows out his arm in 2013 or 2014. If instead you wait until the next off-season, other valuable free agents will come along, and then you are only risking 2014 in the hope of getting a good pitcher for 2015 and onward. And, if you wait another offseason, now you can sign someone good, to a 3-year contract that covers years of actual contention, and without assuming any degree of risk for the dead years of 2013-14. Of course, the risk is always there for as long as a pitcher is under contract, but it's the question of potential reward in exchange for that risk: making 2013 marginally better toward a .500 club, or pushing the 2015-16 team over the top. So, the way I was hoping Ryan would do it is try to make 2013 marginally better through 1- and 2-year signings. Correia is the right length of contract in this view, I just don't think he was the right guy.

    It's not like a signing now might downright cripple the 2015 team. But a signing later on may prove to be more able to address the needs at that time.
    Whenever you sign anyone you take on risk...no matter what time frame of team building you're at. Twins can afford to take on those kind of risks from now till likely 2016, 2017 without hindering the team in the least...at any year...cause payroll is just going to drop next year and the year after and the year after that...Morny, Carroll, Blackburn, Willigham, Doumit...all that payroll is gone by 2015 season....being replaced by very cheap players coming up.

    And signing a guy to a three year contract now, won't hurt any ability to sign people from 2016 on...they'll be off the books by then....and payroll will still be low. There is zero downside. None.

  10. #190
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
    Posts
    2,771
    Like
    660
    Liked 383 Times in 213 Posts
    Blog Entries
    10
    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    Say the window for contending opens in 2015
    Say the Tigers are the 2013 version of the 2011 Twins.

Page 10 of 10 FirstFirst ... 8910

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
©2014 TwinsCentric, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Interested in advertising with Twins Daily? Click here.