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Thread: Marcum To Mets

  1. #201
    Speediest Moderator All-Star snepp's Avatar
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    Nonsense, the Twins have an embarrassment of pitching depth.


    Or was it that the pitching depth is an embarrassment? I get confused sometimes.
    "Maybe you could go grab a bat and ball… and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
    - Strib commenter educating the elitists on the value of RBI's

  2. #202
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    I am stunned by this deal. We all know that the Twins are incompetent and don't know how to evaluate talent but why would 28 other teams pass on Marcum at this price? Marcum will be paid less than a whole collection of stiffs, not just Correia. There has to be something else going on here.

    I don't accept this has anything to do with money or the absurd notion it might block someone in High A. There has to be something about the medicals. If he stays healthy this year and produces Ryan is worthy of being criticized but so are many other GMs.

  3. #203
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    Quote Originally Posted by snepp View Post
    Nonsense, the Twins have an embarrassment of pitching depth.


    Or was it that the pitching depth is an embarrassment? I get confused sometimes.
    Not as confused as the mythical apologists club....

  4. #204
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    Quote Originally Posted by lightfoot789 View Post
    I believe Marcum just did not want to come to to MN, like the other Top (1,500) FAs over the past 20+ years.
    So you're telling me that if we offered Marcum $5-$8M or so, which is still completely reasonable in my book, that he still would have preferred to go to the Mets? The METS?

    I understand that sometimes players take lower pay to go to contenders or to be close to home or whatever, but it's absolutely ridiculous to think that we've been making good, competitive offers to pitchers since the 90s and every single one of them turned down said good offers because they "did not want to come to MN". Also, do you honestly think that somehow the Twins are the only team who has figured out how to silence the media and these pitchers' agents from talking about these good offers we've made?

  5. #205
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    The only thing more ridiculous than trying to project win totals for 2013 is trying to project win totals beyond 2013.

    I've linked to this before, but here it is again. A compilation of 5 projections going back 2 years.https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5pI...NIVHA1NVk/edit

    Something to think about, is how actual wins have compared to pythagoran wins (ie. (runs scored)^1.83 / ((runs scored)^1.83 + (runs allowed)^1.83). The standard deviation over this period is 3.85 wins. Meaning, about 5 teams every year can be counted on to finish 4 games or worse than their pythagorean record. In the same way, 5 seemingly random teams will finish 4 games or better than their pythagorean record.

    So if the Tigers are a 87 win team again, and the Twins are a 68 win team again (by Pythagorean record), there's about a 1.4% chance that the Twins finish at 73 wins or better, and the Tigers finish at 82 wins, or worse. And there's a .62% chance the Twins finish 8 games better than their Pythagorean record, while the Tigers finish 7 games worse - 76 wins to 80 wins. And that's with no improvement from the Twins roster whatsoever (or decline), and no improvement or decline overall from the Tigers team either over last year.

    If the Twins improve their pythagorean record by just 5 wins, and the Tigers repeat their 87 pythagorean wins, then there is a small but real chance the Twins steal the division just by shear random pythagorean luck.

    If the Twins post a pythagorean record of 78, that is, ten games better than 2012, as Gunnarthor suggests the Twins would by simply eliminating the 80 lousy starts by our AAA guys and replace them with 80 starts of replacement level (0 WAR) production, then the Twins are looking at roughly a 4% chance of posting an actual win total that's higher than any 87 Pythagorean win team.

    Obviously, were Jr to bring in guys who actually produce at a positive WAR, you are only increasing your odds further.
    Last edited by Willihammer; 01-25-2013 at 01:41 PM.

  6. #206
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    Quote Originally Posted by drjim View Post
    I am stunned by this deal. We all know that the Twins are incompetent and don't know how to evaluate talent but why would 28 other teams pass on Marcum at this price? Marcum will be paid less than a whole collection of stiffs, not just Correia. There has to be something else going on here.

    I don't accept this has anything to do with money or the absurd notion it might block someone in High A. There has to be something about the medicals. If he stays healthy this year and produces Ryan is worthy of being criticized but so are many other GMs.
    The problem with this analysis is the greater risk that Ryan has already taken on deals much less certain to work out.

  7. #207
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    Quote Originally Posted by drjim View Post
    I am stunned by this deal. We all know that the Twins are incompetent and don't know how to evaluate talent but why would 28 other teams pass on Marcum at this price? Marcum will be paid less than a whole collection of stiffs, not just Correia. There has to be something else going on here.

    I don't accept this has anything to do with money or the absurd notion it might block someone in High A. There has to be something about the medicals. If he stays healthy this year and produces Ryan is worthy of being criticized but so are many other GMs.
    I agree that it's probably something to do with medicals.

    That said, you cannot lump Ryan in with those other GMs. No other (or at least most) shouldn't be as criticized for not taking a risk on Marcum because no one else had the need the Twins do. Marcum was also the last in a line of other available pitching upgrades that the Twins didn't get.

  8. #208
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    Quote Originally Posted by lightfoot789 View Post
    The fact is that you and most everyone on this board have no idea what is ever offered by FO. You assume or heard through a third party. It is much easier to blame FO for never bringing in Top FAs, than believing no one wants to come to MN. Milwaukee has the same problem - as does Kansas City and many Northern teams. We are not a draw for young star players!! Same could be said for FAs coming to the Wolves and Bucks. Different sport - Same results. Are thier teams owned by same people? If it walks like a duck.

    And someone argued that Jack Morris was the last top FA to come to MN. That was how long ago? It can't all be management? Maybe the city needs to reflect on its image and draw for FA's? Just saying. I believe Marcum just did not want to come to MN, like the other Top (1,500) FAs over the past 20+ years. TR is setting up this team the right way (thru prospects) - because NO ONE wants to come here. Proof is in the history / results.
    This small-town, self-loathing, lightfoot doesn't border on the absurd, it puts you right in the center of the Twilight Zone.

    I liked you a lot better when you were singing about that other Northern Shipwreck, the Edmund Fitzgerald. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adZiVjXFfKk

  9. #209
    Twins Moderator All-Star twinsnorth49's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lightfoot789 View Post
    The fact is that you and most everyone on this board have no idea what is ever offered by FO. You assume or heard through a third party. It is much easier to blame FO for never bringing in Top FAs, than believing no one wants to come to MN. Milwaukee has the same problem - as does Kansas City and many Northern teams. We are not a draw for young star players!! Same could be said for FAs coming to the Wolves and Bucks. Different sport - Same results. Are thier teams owned by same people? If it walks like a duck.

    And someone argued that Jack Morris was the last top FA to come to MN. That was how long ago? It can't all be management? Maybe the city needs to reflect on its image and draw for FA's? Just saying. I believe Marcum just did not want to come to MN, like the other Top (1,500) FAs over the past 20+ years. TR is setting up this team the right way (thru prospects) - because NO ONE wants to come here. Proof is in the history / results.
    I hope you don't work for Minnesota Tourism, might be a slow year.

    Listen, you'd have to have been living in a cave to not know this team's history of being frugal when it comes to free agents, it's an organizational philosophy, always has been. Argue whether that makes sense all you like but don't try to shove this nonsense down our throats that the Twin Cities is such a distateful place that no highly regarded FA baseball player for the last 51 years would ever consider playing here. It's fu**ing ridiculous!!!

    I'm not even from Minnesota and I find this offensive!

  10. #210
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    [QUOTE=S.;78681]So you're telling me that if we offered Marcum $5-$8M or so, which is still completely reasonable in my book, that he still would have preferred to go to the Mets? The METS? Obviously 29 other teams besides the METS felt $5-$8 million was too much too. Should have offered your money. (Just kidding ) - He still has to pass physical?

    but it's absolutely ridiculous to think that we haven't been making good, competitive offers to pitchers since the 90s. Yet every single one of them turned us down because they "just did not want to come to MN".

    Also, do you honestly think that somehow the Twins are the only team who has figured out how to silence the media and these pitchers' agents from talking about these good offers we've made? "Trust the leaks but not the silence"


  11. #211
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsnorth49 View Post
    I hope you don't work for Minnesota Tourism, might be a slow year.

    Listen, you'd have to have been living in a cave to not know this team's history of being frugal when it comes to free agents, it's an organizational philosophy, always has been. Argue whether that makes sense all you like but don't try to shove this nonsense down our throats that the Twin Cities is such a distateful place that no highly regarded FA baseball player for the last 51 years would ever consider playing here. It's fu**ing ridiculous!!!

    I'm not even from Minnesota and I find this offensive!
    You've got me trumped on your last sentence, and demonstrative of your Canadian politeness and humilty, you're not even from the United States and find this offensive.

    I'll say it for you, those comments are absurd and delusional.

  12. #212
    Twins Moderator All-Star twinsnorth49's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post

    I liked you a lot better when you were singing about that other Northern Shipwreck, the Edmund Fitzgerald. Gordon Lightfoot - The Wreck Of The Edmund Fitzgerald - YouTube
    LMFAO....hilarious!

  13. #213
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    29 other teams don't have the same need for decent starting pitching like the Twins do + a boatload of payroll flexibility now and in the future if we wanted to sign a longer term deal.

    Also, taking my post and changing a few words is not a compelling argument for your side. Clearly you're clueless though, so I'll leave you to your unfettered optimism.

  14. #214
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    I love MN and the Twins cities. That doesn't change the fact that FA pick ups is a problem for all MN sports teams, as well as teams in Milwaukee and KC and even St. Louis for that matter. The Midwest, besides larger cities like Detroit and Chicago have always had problems obtaining high end FA's. Just a fact (unless you can prove me wrong). I stating that we need to find another way to lure these FAs to MN.

    New ownership same problems with FA is what I'm hearing. Have the people of MN ever been satisfied with management and ownership?

  15. #215
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    Parise and Sutter to the Wild ring a bell?

  16. #216
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    Here's a conundrum for the Ryan appologists:

    The Twins gave Mike Pelfrey $4 million.

    The Mets gave Shawn Marcum $4 million.

    If your logic says that Pelfrey wouldn't spurn the Mets for the small-market (BS), non-contending Twins, then that means the Mets didn't want the guy at $4 million or he would still be in NY. However the Mets did want Marcum at $4 million. So either players DON'T spurn the Twins for big markets, OR the Mets have fewer worries about the risk/reward of Marcum than they do the risk/reward of Pelfrey and the Mets are much more intimately familiar with Pelfrey.

    Obviously option #2 is the reasoning behind this situation, but the fact that the Mets like Marcum over Pelfrey should have told the Twins that they too should have liked Marcum over Pelfrey.

  17. #217
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alex View Post
    I agree that it's probably something to do with medicals.

    That said, you cannot lump Ryan in with those other GMs. No other (or at least most) shouldn't be as criticized for not taking a risk on Marcum because no one else had the need the Twins do. Marcum was also the last in a line of other available pitching upgrades that the Twins didn't get.
    Really? You think most teams could not use the upgrade a healthy Marcum could bring? I actually think it would be comparable to Haren. It would make sense for a fringe playoff team or better to go after him. If he stays healthy that would be a huge boost. The upside for the Twins is a few wins and the chance to flip for a prospect.

  18. #218
    Speediest Moderator All-Star snepp's Avatar
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    You keep calling these opinions of yours facts.


    You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
    "Maybe you could go grab a bat and ball… and learn something. Maybe you will get it."
    - Strib commenter educating the elitists on the value of RBI's

  19. #219
    Twins Moderator All-Star twinsnorth49's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=lightfoot789;78688]
    Quote Originally Posted by S. View Post
    So you're telling me that if we offered Marcum $5-$8M or so, which is still completely reasonable in my book, that he still would have preferred to go to the Mets? The METS? Obviously 29 other teams besides the METS felt $5-$8 million was too much too. Should have offered your money. (Just kidding ) - He still has to pass physical?

    but it's absolutely ridiculous to think that we haven't been making good, competitive offers to pitchers since the 90s. Yet every single one of them turned us down because they "just did not want to come to MN".

    Also, do you honestly think that somehow the Twins are the only team who has figured out how to silence the media and these pitchers' agents from talking about these good offers we've made? "Trust the leaks but not the silence"


  20. #220
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    Quote Originally Posted by lightfoot789 View Post
    I love MN and the Twins cities. That doesn't change the fact that FA pick ups is a problem for all MN sports teams, as well as teams in Milwaukee and KC and even St. Louis for that matter. The Midwest, besides larger cities like Detroit and Chicago have always had problems obtaining high end FA's. Just a fact (unless you can prove me wrong). I stating that we need to find another way to lure these FAs to MN.

    New ownership same problems with FA is what I'm hearing. Have the people of MN ever been satisfied with management and ownership?
    Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran and Lance Berkman might disagree.

    The Vikings have been great about bringing in free agents when needed. Lumping the Wild into the statement probably discredits anything else in your post.

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