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Thread: MLB Team's Wins O/U (Spoiler alert the Twins are 2nd to last)

  1. #1
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    MLB Team's Wins O/U (Spoiler alert the Twins are 2nd to last)

    I am actually gonna bet the farm on the Twins if I can get that line in Vegas in a couple weeks. 65 wins shouldn't be THAT hard, right?

    Courtesy of Atlantis Casino Resort:

    Detroit Tigers: 90
    Los Angeles Dodgers: 90
    Washington Nationals: 90
    Los Angeles Angels: 89
    Cincinnati Reds: 88
    Texas Rangers: 87
    Toronto Blue Jays: 86
    New York Yankees: 86
    San Francisco Giants: 86
    Atlanta Braves: 86
    Tampa Bay Rays: 86
    St. Louis Cardinals: 85
    Oakland Athletics: 83
    Philadelphia Phillies: 81
    Arizona Diamondbacks: 81
    Chicago White Sox: 80
    Milwaukee Brewers: 79
    Boston Red Sox: 79
    Kansas City Royals: 79
    Pittsburgh Pirates: 79
    Cleveland Indians: 77
    Baltimore Orioles: 76
    Seattle Mariners: 76
    San Diego Padres: 74
    New York Mets: 74
    Chicago Cubs: 72
    Colorado Rockies: 71
    Minnesota Twins: 64
    Miami Marlins: 64
    Houston Astros: 59

  2. #2
    Senior Member Triple-A mcrow's Avatar
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    I think they are almost for sure going to be over 65 wins so it's probably a good bet.

    probably in the low to mid 70's I'd think.

  3. #3
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Bet on the Strohs while you're at it.

  4. #4
    Senior Member All-Star James's Avatar
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    64 1/2 !?!?!?! I know the Twins are going to be bad this year, but I don't expect them to THAT bad. I would take the over for sure.
    You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.

  5. #5
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    The shocking thing to me is the Twins are 15 games behind the 4th place AL Central Team. So about that whole equal on field talent thing....

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    I am actually gonna bet the farm on the Twins if I can get that line in Vegas in a couple weeks. 65 wins shouldn't be THAT hard, right?
    Two weeks? Sorry, I anticipate that the legion of half-fullers on this board will run that line up to O/U 68.5 by next Wednesday.

    Seriously though, I would hit the over at 65 but not hard. Too many Who's-its? pitching and playing up the middle. Also regression is very probable for many of the players that played a big part in winning 66 last season (Willingham, Plouffe, Diamond, Doumit).

  7. #7
    Super Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    The shocking thing to me is the Twins are 15 games behind the 4th place AL Central Team. So about that whole equal on field talent thing....
    Well, at the risk of belaboring either the obvious or something I know only superficially, these betting lines are at heart not about getting it right in terms of the reality being bet upon. but in getting equal amounts of dollars to be bet on each side of some line. As long as the dollars are green the sports books really don't care. If you find a betting line at 64.5 wins for the Twins, feel free to take advantage of the strangers you feel are betting on the wrong side of it, because the casino will act as your intermediary and ensure you get your winnings from them without hard feelings creeping in.

  8. #8
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dance with Disco Dan View Post
    Two weeks? Sorry, I anticipate that the legion of half-fullers on this board will run that line up to O/U 68.5 by next Wednesday.

    Seriously though, I would hit the over at 65 but not hard. Too many Who's-its? pitching and playing up the middle. Also regression is very probable for many of the players that played a big part in winning 66 last season (Willingham, Plouffe, Diamond, Doumit).
    Aren't the legions of empty-glassers bettors?

  9. #9
    Senior Member All-Star SpiritofVodkaDave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    Well, at the risk of belaboring either the obvious or something I know only superficially, these betting lines are at heart not about getting it right in terms of the reality being bet upon. but in getting equal amounts of dollars to be bet on each side of some line. As long as the dollars are green the sports books really don't care. If you find a betting line at 64.5 wins for the Twins, feel free to take advantage of the strangers you feel are betting on the wrong side of it, because the casino will act as your intermediary and ensure you get your winnings from them without hard feelings creeping in.
    I realize how they are set, but typically its a pretty good indication of where the experts will think things will finish up. (Give or take a game or two to create additional action etc)

  10. #10
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    I realize how they are set, but typically its a pretty good indication of where the experts will think things will finish up. (Give or take a game or two to create additional action etc)
    Interesting fact: just before the 2011 season the Twins' over/under was 86.5 games (ahead of everyone in the Central)

    Not sure if this says more about the O/U, the experts, or those who run the team. But it is not a flawless process...
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  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    Aren't the legions of empty-glassers bettors?
    Yeah, but they wait for the suckers who ride the emotional train to put the odds more heavily in their favor.

  12. #12
    Super Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    I realize how they are set, but typically its a pretty good indication of where the experts will think things will finish up.
    I think we're at something of a circular argument. The expertise here is in setting a line that will attract even betting on each side of the line. Period. If that happens to coincide with expert opinion on the actual state of matters, it is beyond just coincidence, it's irrelevant to the purposes of the people collecting the vig.

  13. #13
    Senior Member Triple-A
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    If the lines are too far from reality "smart money" will almost always outweigh biased fans (and move the line in the 'right' direction). The Dodgers are a bit high due to hype, but that sort of thing doesn't come into play much with the Twins.

    I'd take the over because the AL Central is so weak overall, but not with a lot of confidence. Various other O/Us stand out as better picks... Cubs, over; Red Sox, over; Dodgers, under. I also like Mets, over and Pirates & Royals, under.

  14. #14
    Banned All-Star
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    thanks for posting this Dave

  15. #15
    Head Moderator All-Star glunn's Avatar
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    I have been thinking of a trip to Vegas anyway, to visit my favorite living art gallery. This seems like a good bet to me.

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    Correia as opening day starter, Florimon at SS? 65 sounds about right to me....

  17. #17
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AM. View Post
    Correia as opening day starter, Florimon at SS? 65 sounds about right to me....
    Can an entire town be ignored?

    I'm a bit surprised the line isn't closer to 68-69 though, I expect the Twins to win a bit more than 70 myself, or within a few games of that.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Can an entire town be ignored?

    I'm a bit surprised the line isn't closer to 68-69 though, I expect the Twins to win a bit more than 70 myself, or within a few games of that.
    In predicting win totals for baseball the win total has to come out to the number of games played. Reread Asbury John's comments. It is about them making money, not reality.

  19. #19
    I would take the over. I would be more on the fence if the number was 66.5. The problem with betting the under on a number like this is a lot of things need to really go wrong (Injuries) to lose this many games. This is why it's not real common for teams to lose 100 games. So breaking down the Twins potential record a few factors pop into my head.

    Things likely to get better
    -Starting Pitching- The Twins starters produced an ERA of 5.40 last year. Even an improvement to 5.20 in 900 Innings leads to around 3-4 more wins.

    Things likely to get worse
    -Revere, Span, and Willingham contributed 11.2 WAR. Revere and Span are gone. Willingham probably projects as more a 2-3 WAR player. Mauer might have a hard time matching his line of a .416 OBP. Morneau probably gets better. Third Base won't have Danny Valencia hanging around either.

    Things likely to stay the same
    -The Bullpen projects to me to be about what is was 21st in WAR. Guys like Burton, Perkins, and Duensing won't be as good. But there drop off will be offset by Jeff Gray not being around. Even with some Bullpen Variance this shouldn't impact the final total all that much.

    I see why Vegas has these numbers. I just tend to bet the over on bad teams due to good luck and random variance upward being more probable.

  20. #20
    I'd take the under. I think the division will be better with the Royals added to competitiveness. Plus the Twins are in rebuild mode so Willingham and Morneau could be gone by July. Their best starter may be hurt to start the year. About the only spots on he roster that you could predict with confidence to be above average are a catcher that's only a half time catcher and the closer. And I don't foresee many opportunities for Perkins.

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