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Thread: Article: For Better or Worse: Oswaldo Arcia

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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Article: For Better or Worse: Oswaldo Arcia


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    Senior Member Double-A Cap'n Piranha's Avatar
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    I think Oswaldo will be better by the simple fact that he will largely replicate his 2012 numbers, except he will be doing it at AAA from day 1 of the season. I also think he is very underappreciated nationally, and even quite possibly locally as well. To wit, compare the following two players, both of whom spent approximately half a year in the AA Eastern League last year.

    Player 1, born 5/9/91, 262 AB, .328/.398/.557, 86 H, 20 2B, 5 3B, 10 HR, 28 BB, 62 K, 3 SB

    Player 2, born 3/4/92, 322 AB, .264/.296/.382, 85 H, 15 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 14 BB, 76 K, 5 SB

    Player 1 is Oswaldo (as you may have guessed), and is listed as the Twins #7 prospect, and not in the national Top 100, by MLB.com. Player 2 is ranked as the #10 prospect in the ENTIRE COUNTRY, and is the Tiger's Nick Castellanos.

    Obviously, 3rd base is a far more premium defensive position than RF, but given Oswaldo's dominant offensive superiority over Castellanos in the exact same league last year, I believe that either Arcia is criminally underrated, or Castellanos is grossly overrated. Either way, I expect to see Arcia get some run in 2013, and win the right field job outright to start 2014.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Oldgoat_MN's Avatar
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    Completely agree with Cap'n Piranha. IMHO, Arcia is the best pure hitter the Twins have right now other than Mauer. As the youngest player on the Rock Cats he was their most dangerous hitter with the highest OPS (OK, Ramirez was higher, but in only 49 at bats).
    AAA is definitely a different level, but I expect him to do well and finally start getting the attention he deserves. If Parmelee falters we may very well see Arcia in a Twins uniform this year.

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    Oswaldo is a true baller. I would look for him to finish 2013 in Minnesota if Morneau, Willingham, or Parmelee is traded around the deadline.

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    The future looks really bright for him and I hope to see him for a call up (at the least) by the end of this year. I hope that they will trade Mourneau as you mention and the ensuing shift leaves that hole in right. It could be really sweet to watch that happen. The question I have is about his long-term position. I read reports that say he has an arm that is more than suitable for RF and others that say his arm is, "good enough." Seth, yours is the first piece I have read that called his arm, "very powerful." My point is that is does not seem unanimous that he has the prototypical right field arm. I also read that his lower half is very powerfully built. If he proceeds in getting stronger with his shorter (6 foot) frame, it seems to me that he will slow down. Why is there no mention of LF for him? If he could end up to have avg speed, an above avg arm and great hitting skills, that seems like a more natural place for him.

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    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SRP View Post
    The future looks really bright for him and I hope to see him for a call up (at the least) by the end of this year. I hope that they will trade Mourneau as you mention and the ensuing shift leaves that hole in right. It could be really sweet to watch that happen. The question I have is about his long-term position. I read reports that say he has an arm that is more than suitable for RF and others that say his arm is, "good enough." Seth, yours is the first piece I have read that called his arm, "very powerful." My point is that is does not seem unanimous that he has the prototypical right field arm. I also read that his lower half is very powerfully built. If he proceeds in getting stronger with his shorter (6 foot) frame, it seems to me that he will slow down. Why is there no mention of LF for him? If he could end up to have avg speed, an above avg arm and great hitting skills, that seems like a more natural place for him.
    Ben Revere played a lot of RF for the Twins the last year or two... I'd say that Oswaldo Arcia's arm isn't an issue. LF could happen too, but he hasn't played there much. Not that he couldn't. I mean, Rene Tosoni played only RF and some CF in the minors and the Twins put him in LF up here. Frankly, it just doesn't matter to me as long as his bat is in the lineup and he's in the OF.

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    Senior Member Triple-A Steve Lein's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SRP View Post
    The future looks really bright for him and I hope to see him for a call up (at the least) by the end of this year. I hope that they will trade Mourneau as you mention and the ensuing shift leaves that hole in right. It could be really sweet to watch that happen. The question I have is about his long-term position. I read reports that say he has an arm that is more than suitable for RF and others that say his arm is, "good enough." Seth, yours is the first piece I have read that called his arm, "very powerful." My point is that is does not seem unanimous that he has the prototypical right field arm. I also read that his lower half is very powerfully built. If he proceeds in getting stronger with his shorter (6 foot) frame, it seems to me that he will slow down. Why is there no mention of LF for him? If he could end up to have avg speed, an above avg arm and great hitting skills, that seems like a more natural place for him.
    The consensus seems to be Oswaldo has plenty arm for a typical RF, though it isn't necessarily that much "above-average". As Seth says, I wouldn't fret over the arm too much, he won't be even close to Revere-ish out there in that regard.

    To your second point, he has already slowed down and you can check out this Scouting Report: Scouting Report: Oswaldo Arcia (OF) | Baseball Prospect Nation

    where it is stated he has "Lost much of his athleticism over the last two years." and also discusses in depth most all of your questions/concerns.
    Scouting Report: Tools - Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)
    Spring Training Regular since 2011.

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    Of all the prospects that are close, Arcia is my favorite one...heck, he may just be my favorite prospect, period.

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    Senior Member Triple-A Steve Lein's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cap'n Piranha View Post
    I think Oswaldo will be better by the simple fact that he will largely replicate his 2012 numbers, except he will be doing it at AAA from day 1 of the season. I also think he is very underappreciated nationally, and even quite possibly locally as well. To wit, compare the following two players, both of whom spent approximately half a year in the AA Eastern League last year.

    Player 1, born 5/9/91, 262 AB, .328/.398/.557, 86 H, 20 2B, 5 3B, 10 HR, 28 BB, 62 K, 3 SB

    Player 2, born 3/4/92, 322 AB, .264/.296/.382, 85 H, 15 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 14 BB, 76 K, 5 SB

    Player 1 is Oswaldo (as you may have guessed), and is listed as the Twins #7 prospect, and not in the national Top 100, by MLB.com. Player 2 is ranked as the #10 prospect in the ENTIRE COUNTRY, and is the Tiger's Nick Castellanos.

    Obviously, 3rd base is a far more premium defensive position than RF, but given Oswaldo's dominant offensive superiority over Castellanos in the exact same league last year, I believe that either Arcia is criminally underrated, or Castellanos is grossly overrated. Either way, I expect to see Arcia get some run in 2013, and win the right field job outright to start 2014.
    I like the name you throw out here, as Castellanos was a guy I thought the Twins might draft the year they took Alex Wimmers. However, the prospect ranking difference between the two is easily traced, considering what Castellanos did before he was promoted to AA, which was hit over .400 in the Florida State League. Where they currently differ, is power output, but Castellanos' will show up more as he matures and gets more experience. He is a bigger guy than Arcia and has spent 2 less seasons in the Minors, yet they were at the same level last year.
    Scouting Report: Tools - Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)
    Spring Training Regular since 2011.

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    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Arcia could get "worse" in 2013 and still be on track for a very good major league career, so put me down for a AAA OPS of .700 or so with a positive trend as the season goes along.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    Ben Revere played a lot of RF for the Twins the last year or two... I'd say that Oswaldo Arcia's arm isn't an issue. LF could happen too, but he hasn't played there much. Not that he couldn't. I mean, Rene Tosoni played only RF and some CF in the minors and the Twins put him in LF up here. Frankly, it just doesn't matter to me as long as his bat is in the lineup and he's in the OF.
    Seth and Steve Lein- Good enough and agreed. In my ideal little world we would trade both Willingham and Morneau during this year and meanwhile Benson, Hicks and Arcia would develop/recover nicely. That way those 3 could start the 2014 season in the outfield. It looks somewhat promising the 2/3rds of this could happen and we will see if Benson can find it.

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    Senior Member Triple-A Steve Lein's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SRP View Post
    Seth and Steve Lein- Good enough and agreed. In my ideal little world we would trade both Willingham and Morneau during this year and meanwhile Benson, Hicks and Arcia would develop/recover nicely. That way those 3 could start the 2014 season in the outfield. It looks somewhat promising the 2/3rds of this could happen and we will see if Benson can find it.
    I love the sound of that outfield (and in every Sim MLB game I've played that's what my 2014 OF has ended up as), and while I don't necessarily agree with the "trade both Willingham and Morneau" part (I want Morneau to come back in a big way this year and stick around), you may be right.
    Scouting Report: Tools - Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)
    Spring Training Regular since 2011.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Twins Twerp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SRP View Post
    Seth and Steve Lein- Good enough and agreed. In my ideal little world we would trade both Willingham and Morneau during this year and meanwhile Benson, Hicks and Arcia would develop/recover nicely. That way those 3 could start the 2014 season in the outfield. It looks somewhat promising the 2/3rds of this could happen and we will see if Benson can find it.
    Rosario is still an outfield possibility as well although he AND Sano look more like 2015 at the earliest.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jimbo92107's Avatar
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    If Morneau puts in a healthy first half, then he and Willingham will be major trade bait for various contending teams. At that point I expect to see at least two of Hicks, Benson and Arcia on the big league club.

    Although I think Arcia has more potential, I figure Benson will get the look first. Hicks I'm assuming will be up either right out of spring or sometime during the first half.

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    This is one of the reasons I am excited about 2014 and beyond! Hope he is able to translate the success to the bigs.

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    How many AAA hitters had a higher OPS last year? Very excited about him, but I would not be surprised if he drops a tad in output.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by SRP View Post
    The question I have is about his long-term position. I read reports that say he has an arm that is more than suitable for RF and others that say his arm is, "good enough." Seth, yours is the first piece I have read that called his arm, "very powerful." My point is that is does not seem unanimous that he has the prototypical right field arm. I also read that his lower half is very powerfully built. If he proceeds in getting stronger with his shorter (6 foot) frame, it seems to me that he will slow down. Why is there no mention of LF for him? \.
    I saw him in August and I was really impressed with his defense. He had good range going back and towards centerfield, and his throws got surprising carry on them for somebody without big long arms. I realize that big long arms aren't necessary, but it's a look, right?

    And for what it's worth, the opposition seems to have taken note of his arm too. There was at least one flyball to right that I thought was an easy decision to tag on for the runner on second. Dude just watched it into Arcia's glove, gave a half-assed fake towards third to draw a throw, and then retreated back to second upon seeing that this throw would have nailed him by a pretty wide margin.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Celebrity Weddings! View Post
    I saw him in August and I was really impressed with his defense. He had good range going back and towards centerfield, and his throws got surprising carry on them for somebody without big long arms. I realize that big long arms aren't necessary, but it's a look, right?

    And for what it's worth, the opposition seems to have taken note of his arm too. There was at least one flyball to right that I thought was an easy decision to tag on for the runner on second. Dude just watched it into Arcia's glove, gave a half-assed fake towards third to draw a throw, and then retreated back to second upon seeing that this throw would have nailed him by a pretty wide margin.
    Maybe he was a slow runner at second? But yes, Ozzie Arcia is a true-baller that can do a little bit of everything on the baseball field. Could develop into an MLB All-Star...

  20. #20
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    I can see a scenario where he is the everyday left fielder for the Twins by the end of 2013. If he continues to hit for Rochester as he did for New Britain, and if the Twins get a good offer for Willingham during the trade season, he'd be an easy choice to take over in left for The Hammer. Gardy is really high on him and will give him every opportunity to show what he can do in spring training. Then he needs to play everyday in AAA until the Twins make room for him.

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