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Thread: Article: Seth's 2013 Twins Hitting Projections

  1. #21
    Seth very interesting article and set of offensive numbers--overly bullish to say the least. I disagree with most people and say they are not reasonable at all because you forgot to factor in time on the DL. You have Mauer playing 143 games, Doumit 127, Plouffe 154, Morneau 142 and Willingham 151. It is possible that one or two of these guys will avoid the DL--but all 5--given their history no way. (Yes, Doumit could spend time on the DL and get 127 appearances but not likely.) I gather you have Hicks coming up sometime around memorial day and displacing Mastro--if he is on team all year--he plays 120plus--Gardy and Ryan wont keep him on MLB roster to keep him on bench,.

  2. #22
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boom Boom View Post
    If Florimon hits like you're projecting him, the Twins can't seriously justify keeping him as the starting shortstop all season.
    That's why I have him playing 62 games or so... my assumption is he'd get two months and be gone by mid-June.

  3. #23
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcrow View Post
    I have to say I think you're a bit overly positive on several players. I appreciate the positivity though.
    Someone has to show a little positivity, right?

  4. #24
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimbo92107 View Post
    Florimon .189 vs. Escobar .259? That's pretty much saying Escobar should be the regular SS.

    With that arm, maybe Florimon could try out for closer.
    I'd be comfortable with that.

  5. #25
    Senior Member Triple-A mcrow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    Someone has to show a little positivity, right?
    I like the Morneau stat line, would love it if that happens. Lets cross fingers and hope it happens because that would be huge for the Twins to be watchable this year.

  6. #26
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcrow View Post
    I agree, but do think that it is possible to plausible (It could happen) and reasonable (not without reason) but some of these are unlikely at the same time.
    As is the case with all projections, including those that get used over and over on the interwebs. I definitely don't claim to have any perfect formula. I look at past history, and pay a little more attention to the last couple of years, age, trends, and put it all together.

  7. #27
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DAM DC Twins Fans View Post
    Seth very interesting article and set of offensive numbers--overly bullish to say the least. I disagree with most people and say they are not reasonable at all because you forgot to factor in time on the DL. You have Mauer playing 143 games, Doumit 127, Plouffe 154, Morneau 142 and Willingham 151. It is possible that one or two of these guys will avoid the DL--but all 5--given their history no way. (Yes, Doumit could spend time on the DL and get 127 appearances but not likely.) I gather you have Hicks coming up sometime around memorial day and displacing Mastro--if he is on team all year--he plays 120plus--Gardy and Ryan wont keep him on MLB roster to keep him on bench,.
    I considered injuries and DL time, but obviously that's completely unpredictable... There are a lot of teams that have guys that play over 150 games a year. I'm predicting the Twins will have a couple too. I don't know if they're the right ones, but we'll find out.

    Correct on my thoughts of Hicks taking over in probably early June. I also have Benson being up the full season, or most of it, and splitting time with Mastroianni at the start of the season and then sticking around later because once Hicks is up, Hicks'll play most every day.

  8. #28
    Senior Member Triple-A mcrow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    As is the case with all projections, including those that get used over and over on the interwebs. I definitely don't claim to have any perfect formula. I look at past history, and pay a little more attention to the last couple of years, age, trends, and put it all together.
    No worries Seth, I'm not saying I could do better but like you said no system is perfect and you could very well be right and I'm undersetimating some guys. I sure as heck hope yours are right because it's going to be a massacist's paradise around here if mine are right...

  9. #29
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jimbo92107's Avatar
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    If both Benson and Hicks have better projected averages then Mastrioanni, then the Twins should just plant them in the outfield and leave them there. This team needs to give fans a reason to buy tickets. Their pitching staff is like a Tommy John convention, and they traded away their two best on-base guys. Give us something to make us smile!

  10. #30
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Interesting stuff, but this does not add up:
    2013 Predictions 688 R 1388 288 25 164
    HR 669 RBI
    83 614 1095
    2012 Totals 701 R 1448 270 30 131
    HR 667 RBI
    135 505 1069
    with 33 more HRs than 2012, I hope at least 50 more RBI and 50 more Rs...
    If they score fewer runs in 2013 than the did in 2012, they will have big issues...
    -----
    Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/
    twitter: @thrylos98

  11. #31
    Senior Member Double-A SgtSchmidt11's Avatar
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    I think that Mauer's K rate is a little high, I mean last year was his highest ever, by quite a bit...Otherwise it looks very reasonable (Here's to hoping the Morneau hits that well!)

  12. #32
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    Interesting stuff, but this does not add up:


    with 33 more HRs than 2012, I hope at least 50 more RBI and 50 more Rs...
    If they score fewer runs in 2013 than the did in 2012, they will have big issues...
    Well they are losing two pretty good tablesetters.

    The more I think about it, this team might be smart to move everyone up. Mauer 1, Willingham 2, etc. Get Mauer up there in the 1st with bases empty and no outs, instead of bases empty and 2 outs.

  13. #33
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    Interesting stuff, but this does not add up:


    with 33 more HRs than 2012, I hope at least 50 more RBI and 50 more Rs...
    If they score fewer runs in 2013 than the did in 2012, they will have big issues...
    I wrote that right in the article... I had no intention of making anything add up, just checking to see how far I was off on various things.

  14. #34
    Question? How is Trevor Plouffe going to score as many runs as Mauer with about 75 times less on base and the lighter end of the batting order hitting behind him? But great info though.

  15. #35
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfansd View Post
    Question? How is Trevor Plouffe going to score as many runs as Mauer with about 75 times less on base and the lighter end of the batting order hitting behind him? But great info though.
    Homeruns, probably.

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