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Thread: Article: The Blizzard of Oz

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    Article: The Blizzard of Oz


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    I am definitely a lot more excited to see what Arcia can do in the bigs than i am Hicks. Probably won't be a flashy defender, but his minor league stats would indicate a well rounded hitter. Sure he'll get the call after an injury or Morneau trade moving Parmelee to 1st.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Brad Swanson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tjsyam921 View Post
    I am definitely a lot more excited to see what Arcia can do in the bigs than i am Hicks. Probably won't be a flashy defender, but his minor league stats would indicate a well rounded hitter. Sure he'll get the call after an injury or Morneau trade moving Parmelee to 1st.
    I'm really looking forward to watching both players. Hicks might not put up statistical seasons that make your eyes pop out, but his defense is going to be fantastic.
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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Oldgoat_MN's Avatar
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    I have not been this excited about a Twins prospect since Morneau & Mauer.
    If you haven't already, watch those clips on the link mnfanforlife provided.
    This young man could really be something special.

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    Yes Old Goat. We could have a 2015 lineup of.....

    1. Hicks - CF
    2. Rosario - 2B
    3. Mauer - C
    4. Sano - 3B
    5. Arcia - RF
    6. Parmalee or Vargas - 1B
    7. Benson? - DH
    8. Roberts - LF
    9. Santana - SS

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brad Swanson View Post
    I'm really looking forward to watching both players. Hicks might not put up statistical seasons that make your eyes pop out, but his defense is going to be fantastic.
    Yeah man...Hicks is going to be special. He keeps getting better at the plate and on the bases, and should be a real nice Major-League centerfielder

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    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brad Swanson View Post
    Hicks might not put up statistical seasons that make your eyes pop out, but his defense is going to be fantastic.
    Basically echoing what others have said, the offensive bar for making my eyes pop is a lot lower for a centerfielder than for somebody on the corners. Span didn't have those numbers, but with 15-20 HR power he probably would have been around that threshold. Hicks could reach that, eventually.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ashburyjohn View Post
    Basically echoing what others have said, the offensive bar for making my eyes pop is a lot lower for a centerfielder than for somebody on the corners. Span didn't have those numbers, but with 15-20 HR power he probably would have been around that threshold. Hicks could reach that, eventually.
    If Hicks just gets a little bit better...you can imagine these offensive stats: .290 hitter, 100 Runs, 160 hits, 35 doubles, 10 triples, 25 homers, 35 stolen bases. Nice lead-off hitter with power. Think Shannon Stewart or better as a hitter, and Gold Glove potential defender.
    Last edited by mnfanforlife; 02-26-2013 at 04:40 PM.

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    Back to "The Blizzard of Oz" - - - I envision a stat line like this in Minnesota: .300 hitter, 90 Runs, 45 doubles, 25 homers, 100+ RBI. Great 3-hole or 5-hole hitter.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer FrodaddyG's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mnfanforlife View Post
    If Hicks just gets a little bit better...you can imagine these offensive stats: .290 hitter, 100 Runs, 160 hits, 35 doubles, 10 triples, 25 homers, 35 stolen bases. Nice lead-off hitter with power. Think Shannon Stewart or better as a hitter, and Gold Glove potential defender.
    That is significantly more than a "little bit" better than Hicks' best year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mnfanforlife View Post
    If Hicks just gets a little bit better...you can imagine these offensive stats: .290 hitter, 100 Runs, 160 hits, 35 doubles, 10 triples, 25 homers, 35 stolen bases. Nice lead-off hitter with power. Think Shannon Stewart or better as a hitter, and Gold Glove potential defender.
    I think you just make stuff up when you do your projections. Hicks is a .271 career hitter with 30 HR's in 3.5 full season ball seasons.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mnfanforlife View Post
    If Hicks just gets a little bit better...you can imagine these offensive stats: .290 hitter, 100 Runs, 160 hits, 35 doubles, 10 triples, 25 homers, 35 stolen bases. Nice lead-off hitter with power. Think Shannon Stewart or better as a hitter, and Gold Glove potential defender.
    I would temper the bombs and steals a bit but the rest is probably within range in a couple of years.
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    Yeah, Hicks is getting better....slowly. He will hit for power, but maybe 25 HR's is a high projection for him. Every other number is pretty much what he did at NB. His hit/at-bat ratio was good last year, even though he has moved up a level after hitting .242

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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    I think you just make stuff up when you do your projections. Hicks is a .271 career hitter with 30 HR's in 3.5 full season ball seasons.
    That's kind of how projections work...you make them up. The only number that was a reach was the 25 HR's.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mnfanforlife View Post
    That's kind of how projections work...you make them up. The only number that was a reach was the 25 HR's.
    .290 isn't a reach despite the FACT that he has NEVER hit .290 in full season ball?

    Your projections are nothing more than looking at a players ultimate upside and then adding some to it.

    The only time that Hicks has posted halfway decent BA's were in seasons where he had high BAPIP's. Typically those high BAPIP's go away in the majors due to better defenders and field conditions. Hicks is more likely a .260's hitter since BA's in the majors are typically lower than the minors. This year I'm just hoping he hits .250 and I'm not very optimistic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    .290 isn't a reach despite the FACT that he has NEVER hit .290 in full season ball?

    Your projections are nothing more than looking at a players ultimate upside and then adding some to it.

    The only time that Hicks has posted halfway decent BA's were in seasons where he had high BAPIP's. Typically those high BAPIP's go away in the majors due to better defenders and field conditions. Hicks is more likely a .260's hitter since BA's in the majors are typically lower than the minors. This year I'm just hoping he hits .250 and I'm not very optimistic.
    Hicks hit .286 last year, and .290 isn't exactly "off-the-charts" as conceivable for Hicks in the big-leagues. I believe Hicks will have more hits/at-bats as he gets in to his late-20's and through his 30's....I stand by my projections, and I'm not afraid to be bold with my predictions. If you discredit my projections, then that is your right. I'm sorry that you're not very optimistic.
    Last edited by mnfanforlife; 02-27-2013 at 12:54 AM.

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    Another prospect, Miguel Sano, hit .258 last year....Yet, many pro-scouts project him to hit for a high average as he matures. Hicks' situation is not identical, but I like how he handled AA last year. Made a huge jump in hit/at-bat ratio from A+ to AA...why not expect him to maintain those numbers in AAA, and ultimately in MLB??

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    Quote Originally Posted by mnfanforlife View Post
    Hicks hit .286 last year
    He was also two levels below MLB.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mnfanforlife View Post
    Hicks hit .286 last year, and .290 isn't exactly "off-the-charts" as conceivable for Hicks in the big-leagues. I believe Hicks will have more hits/at-bats as he gets in to his late-20's and through his 30's....I stand by my projections, and I'm not afraid to be bold with my predictions. If you discredit my projections, then that is your right. I'm sorry that you're not very optimistic.
    Hicks hasn't hit .290 since rookie ball and isn't particularly young for his level. Is it impossible for him to hit .290? No, but it's extremely unlikely.

    And that's fine. The guy has a bag full of tools, it's okay if one is slightly deficient. It's not about lack of optimism, it's about blind faith and near impossibilities. Hicks will be just fine at .275 or .280 because he gets on base all the friggin' time. No one is saying he'll be a bad player, they're just keeping their expectations reasonable.

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    Senior Member All-Star Badsmerf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mnfanforlife View Post
    .Yet, many pro-scouts project him to hit for a high average as he matures.
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