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Thread: Article: Top 10 Stories For 2013: #2 Whither Justin?

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boom Boom View Post
    Why does it seem like the Twins will be more likely to trade Willingham than Morneau? Does the extra contract year increase Willingham's trade value?

    I get that Morneau's been hurt a lot, but Willingham doesn't exactly have a sparkling medical record either. I think the Twins want to keep "their guys" and Morneau is one of us while Willingham isn't.
    The extra year and the lower price are exactly why, especially since while he's had some issues staying healthy there's nothing in there that throws up a medical red flag like Morneau's concussion issue where one pitch could end his career. Plus, the Twins have prospects coming up that are nearly ready in the OF, making it easier to move one.

    If Willingham is hitting like last season near the deadline there could be a nice market for him. You'd have to listen, especially if Arcia is raking in AAA and there's a decent offer. The Twins could get a mid-to-upper level prospect plus for Willingham in those circumstances, depending on what contenders need. Morneau is less likely to bring that return with free agency pending and less recent production & health.

    I still do not favor just giving either away for whatever we can get in a salary dump like some advocate.

  2. #22
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    Well, first of all, anybody is available if the price is right. Morneau is one of the Twins core players, and I predict he'll hit well enough to earn at least the minimum $13 million-for-a-year offer that will result in a draft pick if he leaves. The Twins won't trade him at the deadline unless a) Justin is happy about it, meaning Toronto, and b) the Twins get something really valuable in return, like they should have gotten for Santana. Put on your Rays GM cap. What would the Rays get if they had Justin and traded him to another team. If the Twins don't get that kind of offer, then keep him.

    Nobody is forcing us to trade Justin. If Arcia is raking in AAA, the guy who should worry is Parmalee.

  3. #23
    I agree with Steve Lein. If Miguel Cabrera can play 3B and Prince Fielder can play 1B on a pennant winning squad, the key to defense is for sure NOT your cornermen. Let Sano grow into an adequate third-baseman and the Twins are much better off for it. Just like they are for keeping Mauer behind the plate. Until he proves otherwise, keep him at the hot corner and see if that can work.
    Last edited by Snortwood; 03-28-2013 at 04:56 PM.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snortwood View Post
    I agree with Steve Lein. If Miguel Cabrera can play 3B and Prince Fielder can play 1B on a pennant winning squad, the key to defense is for sure NOT your cornermen. Let Sano grow into an adequate third-baseman and the Twins are much better off for it. Just like they are for keeping Mauer behind the plate. Until he proves otherwise, keep him at the hot corner and see if that can work.
    You kind of contradict yourself when you say that the key to defense is not your cornermen, but then say that the Twins are much better off if Sano plays 3rd.

    Anyways, I agree he's more valuable at 3B, but my point is if moving him to 1B gets his bat here sooner, then I'm for it.
    From what I've heard, his bat is VERY close to being ready, it's going to be improving on his brutal 3B defense that is going to hold him back longer.

  5. #25
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    I don't see the rush with Sano. His bat is certainly prodigious but it seems he could still use a little refinement, particularly in the strikeout department (it will be interesting to see how it plays out as he rises in the minors and sees better off-speed stuff). And if it takes 6-12 months extra to see him in a Twins uniform but he'll be at the hot corner instead of first, I think that's worth waiting for.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I don't see the rush with Sano. His bat is certainly prodigious but it seems he could still use a little refinement, particularly in the strikeout department (it will be interesting to see how it plays out as he rises in the minors and sees better off-speed stuff). And if it takes 6-12 months extra to see him in a Twins uniform but he'll be at the hot corner instead of first, I think that's worth waiting for.
    Yeah, if you can guarantee that he'll make it at 3B, and stick long term at 3B, I agree.
    But if his bat is ready, but you hold him back wanting him to stay at 3B, only for it to never happen, and end up bringing him up as a 1B anyway, then all that time was a waste.

    And, I'm not saying he's ready now.
    But I'm hearing he's close , that his bat could be ready as soon as Sept. this year, or opening day next year.

  7. #27
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Physics Guy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fairweather View Post
    The Twins should be trying to trade Mauer not Morneau.
    This coming from the same guy who posted this as the top 10 hitters in the AL Central:
    "Take the gloves off
    1)Cabrera 2)Fielder 3)Butler 4)Willingham 5)Martinez 6)Dunn 7)Gordon 8)Morneau 9)Swisher 10)Jackson"

    I simply assumed you accidentally left Joe off. Now I know better. Where is that ignore button?

  8. #28
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I don't see the rush with Sano. His bat is certainly prodigious but it seems he could still use a little refinement, particularly in the strikeout department (it will be interesting to see how it plays out as he rises in the minors and sees better off-speed stuff). And if it takes 6-12 months extra to see him in a Twins uniform but he'll be at the hot corner instead of first, I think that's worth waiting for.
    Agree about waiting for him to get better defensively in the hot corner, but that strikeout thing, which is mentioned way too often, is an exaggeration.

    Check this out. Here are the Ks and BBs of the following Twins' power hitters last season. Nobody is complaining that they strike out much:

    Willingham 76 BB 141 K
    Morneau 49 BB 102 K
    Doumit 29 BB 98 K

    And here is Sano's. As you can see he has a better BB:K ratio that all 3

    Sano: 80 BB 144 K

    So, if someone is complaining about Sano's Ks he/she should be complaining about Willingham's and Morneau's and Doumit's....
    -----
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  9. #29
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    A couple of curious things to me: 1) the assumption that Morneau wants to stay with the Twins. True, the Twins can make things difficult for Morneau ("Lohse him") if they don't trade him. 2) all the hate on Parmalee. He was "Gardyied" last Spring and didn't handle it. Whereas Plouffe also stunk-up the stadium but he was protected (Hughes whose Spring was comparable to Plouffe's got the axe) until his remarkable 5-week run saved him, but Parmalee got demoted. I sure don't recall a similar vitriol against Plouffe last Spring like there is with Parmalee now.

    Returning to Morneau, the Twins are making it appear that they are in a full-rebuild mode, with the intent to become Tampa North--$65MM payroll with one very highly compensated star and the rest youth at minimum or near-minimum salaries. Given that hypothesis, why would the Twins retain Morneau? Until a new core is established (with some experience), retaining Morneau adds payroll, with at best a modest improvement in Wins, but at the expense of earlier draft placement (which may be required to fully rebuild).

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    A couple of curious things to me: 1) the assumption that Morneau wants to stay with the Twins. True, the Twins can make things difficult for Morneau ("Lohse him") if they don't trade him. 2) all the hate on Parmalee. He was "Gardyied" last Spring and didn't handle it. Whereas Plouffe also stunk-up the stadium but he was protected (Hughes whose Spring was comparable to Plouffe's got the axe) until his remarkable 5-week run saved him, but Parmalee got demoted. I sure don't recall a similar vitriol against Plouffe last Spring like there is with Parmalee now.

    Returning to Morneau, the Twins are making it appear that they are in a full-rebuild mode, with the intent to become Tampa North--$65MM payroll with one very highly compensated star and the rest youth at minimum or near-minimum salaries. Given that hypothesis, why would the Twins retain Morneau? Until a new core is established (with some experience), retaining Morneau adds payroll, with at best a modest improvement in Wins, but at the expense of earlier draft placement (which may be required to fully rebuild).
    Really, I havent seen any of this vitriol towards Parmalee.
    I've seen mostly optimism regarding him, in fact I think even a little bit too much of it.

  11. #31
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    Thrylos, there is a difference striking 144 times in in low A ball and doing it at the majors. It is also fair to note that Sano only hit about 240 in low A ball as well. No one is doubting that he is a great prospect, I doubt however, that he is anywhere near ready to play in the majors. That could change quickly, like it did with Hicks, but it could take a couple of years as well. Lets see what he does at Fort Myers, after this year, I think we will have a much better idea about whether he can survive at 3B, and how soon his bat will be major league ready.

  12. #32
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thrylos98 View Post
    Agree about waiting for him to get better defensively in the hot corner, but that strikeout thing, which is mentioned way too often, is an exaggeration.

    Check this out. Here are the Ks and BBs of the following Twins' power hitters last season. Nobody is complaining that they strike out much:

    Willingham 76 BB 141 K
    Morneau 49 BB 102 K
    Doumit 29 BB 98 K

    And here is Sano's. As you can see he has a better BB:K ratio that all 3

    Sano: 80 BB 144 K

    So, if someone is complaining about Sano's Ks he/she should be complaining about Willingham's and Morneau's and Doumit's....
    Did you really just compare low A ball strikeout numbers to MLB strikeout numbers?

  13. #33
    The King In The North All-Star Nick Nelson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Did you really just compare low A ball strikeout numbers to MLB strikeout numbers?
    Analysis!

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    A couple of curious things to me: 1) the assumption that Morneau wants to stay with the Twins. True, the Twins can make things difficult for Morneau ("Lohse him") if they don't trade him. 2) all the hate on Parmalee. He was "Gardyied" last Spring and didn't handle it. Whereas Plouffe also stunk-up the stadium but he was protected (Hughes whose Spring was comparable to Plouffe's got the axe) until his remarkable 5-week run saved him, but Parmalee got demoted. I sure don't recall a similar vitriol against Plouffe last Spring like there is with Parmalee now.

    Returning to Morneau, the Twins are making it appear that they are in a full-rebuild mode, with the intent to become Tampa North--$65MM payroll with one very highly compensated star and the rest youth at minimum or near-minimum salaries. Given that hypothesis, why would the Twins retain Morneau? Until a new core is established (with some experience), retaining Morneau adds payroll, with at best a modest improvement in Wins, but at the expense of earlier draft placement (which may be required to fully rebuild).
    I think the assumption on Morneau is based on him him seeming pretty happy and settled here and never showing much desire to play anywhere else except in Canada. The relationship with Morneau & the team & the fans has always been good. It's a pretty reasonable assumption.

    I'm usually the first to put Gardy on the spot about how he handles young players, but in Parmelee's case I'll take him off the hook: Chris hadn't played a single game in AAA until last year, so sending him down after he struggled in MLB made perfect sense. I don't see a lot of "hate" for Parmelee, but there is some healthy skepticism. Personally, i think he's going to have a very nice year, but YMMV.

    The Twins are definitely in rebuild mode, but your analysis of what they will spend in the future is pure speculation. I don't see them ever becoming big players in free agency as long as TR is in charge; it seems pretty clear that he thinks that's where teams overspend and you're better off hoarding your resources for your own guys over getting a splashy FA. But there's no reason to believe that the Twins won't push the payroll over $100M again if they're in a position to contend. If Morneau is playing well and is healthy, I think they'll at least try to re-sign him assuming they aren't blown away by a trade offer.

  15. #35
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    Morneau now has the tag "injury prone" and he is probably one knock on the head from retiring from baseball. How on earth can a team in rebuilding mode re-sign him? The Twins are unerring in going for less since Ryan has returned to the helm. Paying Parm and Arcia a half million each is pretty cost effective compared to Morneau making 14 Million per season. If the Twins can get something for Morneau at the deadline, I'm pretty sure they'll take it. Don't look for them to sweeten the pot by eating some of his salary. Do I agree with this? No, but it isn't my money.

  16. #36
    If he is traded on the last year of his contract with possible concussion concerns what will we get in return. VERY LITTLE! if he stays healthy and has a respectable year and he is willing to accept a contract that is reasonable to the questions around him, I think he should be resignedl

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